2013 Global Temperatures

[ORH_wxman]

There is no motivation for them.  No one here (that I know of) has accused any of the major global temperature datasets of manipulating data.  However, for the last 10 years or so, RSS has become a bit of an outlier compared to the surface data sets and UAH for trends.  This could be due to the missing data in the quickly warming arctic, or some not yet detected bug in the algorithm.

 

Since 2000 Trends

 

RSS: -0.01 C/decade

 

UAH:  0.104 C/decade

 

GISS: 0.0664 C/decade

 

NCDC: 0.061 0 C/decade

 

HADCRUT4: 0.041 C/decade

 

 

The fact that the two lower troposphere temperatures are that off is concerning.  Again, most of the difference could be the arctic.  For the record, the RSS should always be posted here as it's relevant to global temperatures.

 

 

RSS used to run considerably warmer than UAH until relatively recently (the past 7-8 years). Despite larger coverage for the satellites, you would expect them to be a little more variant than the surface datasets. They measure using a satellite (obviously) which has a higher error bar, and also due to the fact that they don't use all the same satellite data. UAH is due to come out with a version 6 really soon and it will be interesting to see if that version has a shallower trend in the past decade versus the current version.

 

The surface temp records should be pretty close considering they use much of the same GHCN temperature data network and the same methods for correcting biases such as TOBS.

[tacoman25]

There is no motivation for them.  No one here (that I know of) has accused any of the major global temperature datasets of manipulating data.  However, for the last 10 years or so, RSS has become a bit of an outlier compared to the surface data sets and UAH for trends.  This could be due to the missing data in the quickly warming arctic, or some not yet detected bug in the algorithm.

 

 

 

Right...I was being tongue-in-cheek. It's just funny how back in 2008-09 some people were insisting RSS be used instead of UAH, and the argument was made that RSS matched up better with surface trends, and the fact that UAH is run by skeptical scientists was also thrown out there.

 

Now, RSS is called an outlier because of more recent trends - but that's exactly what GISS has been certain years as well, when they were well warmer than most other sources (2007, for example).

[nflwxman]

RSS used to run considerably warmer than UAH until relatively recently (the past 7-8 years). Despite larger coverage for the satellites, you would expect them to be a little more variant than the surface datasets. They measure using a satellite (obviously) which has a higher error bar, and also due to the fact that they don't use all the same satellite data. UAH is due to come out with a version 6 really soon and it will be interesting to see if that version has a shallower trend in the past decade versus the current version.

 

The surface temp records should be pretty close considering they use much of the same GHCN temperature data network and the same methods for correcting biases such as TOBS.

Well, yes RSS used to run considerably warmer than UAH.  If you recall, several papers called out UAH for poor algorithms in their earlier versions that dampened the upward trend.  That problem has been fixed since some revisions in 2010.  At this point though, you have to call RSS into question due to the know data gaps and recent outlier status.  

 

Most of the surface datasets match up fairly well.  GISS does have the most complete surface temperature record, undoubtedly. 

[nflwxman]

what does everyone think about the upcoming AO and the global temps?  Will land temps in the NH be warmer than the last few years causing a bit of a bump vs the deep cold we have seen settle into the mid lats?

 

 

Secondly what will ENSO do?  Will the weeklies warm back up to .25C+?  The Indian ocean looks like it's warmed a lot recently as well.  Tropical warming typically has a much larger impact.  

 

When do the weeklies come out for SST and where do you get your data?

[GaWx]

When do the weeklies come out for SST and where do you get your data?

 

Weeklies for ENSO, to which he was referring, come out Monday morning here:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

 

 The key column is 3.4. As one can see, neutral negative (0.0 to -0.5) has dominated in all of 2013. It has been about as stable as can be! There has been no march toward Nino whatsoever. And now it is essentially too late to get an official El Nino (i.e., ONI based) in time for winter.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The global ssta rose to .24C.  Two weeks in a row of a rise.  Going back 5 years or so this winter will be warmer globally.  Unless a Dec 2012 happens.  But January  went back to warm like the ssta would indicate.

 

Obviously the enso winter of 09-10 will be warmer.

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Not surprisingly, UAH came in quite a bit colder than September, anomaly wise.

 

+0.22. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH is on pace for the 4th warmest year on it's records.  

 

However with it being .225C+ it may not happen.  But 5th or higher is a lot more likely unless November and December turn out near 0c or colder. 

 

 

Which is very unlikely at this point.

[The_Global_Warmer]

ENSO sub-surface has dramatically warmed.  This may be the push that 2014 will need to break the hiatus.  

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has made it up to 0.088C now.  The dailies are still above .20C.  I would assume the big AO+ is the main driver of this warming but that can't be proven by me attm.  Never the less I never expected the global temps to jump this quickly.  October was admittedly cooler than I expected.  It's obvious there is just to much heat in the upper oceans for the global temps to cool off from recent levels.  I expected November to still be around .10C on CFS.  Which it may very well be.  

 

Currently CFS finishes 11/11/13 at .23C(0.088C month so far) and AMSU channel 6 temps are in the top echelon of years this time of year.  Even warmer than last year.  

 

October did see the dailies drop well into negative territory long enough to push the month back to warm but not near record.

 

 

Unfortunately while ENSO is still negative nuetral and the sub surface is quickly warming to future NINO levels whether a nino happens or not.  Global SSTA have gone up for 3 weeks in a row back to .25C+ which is pretty damn high for this time of year given the ENSO state.  Last year was around this level because ENSO was warm but cooled by Dec/Jan.  This year it's the opposite.  So most of the warmth is outside of the tropics.  Which is what really makes me think a global jump in temps is on the way.  

 

It obviously won't be popular here but I am starting to see scenarios where 2014 ties record warmth or passes it. But I can realistically see a .70 to .75C year on GISS.  Not because we are off the charts for 3-4 months.  But more like there wont be many cool months below .50 or .60.  While I think we break .80C multiple times if we have a NINO.  If we get a big time 2010 like nino from early Spring to Fall then yeah I am all in for a big record breaker. ` 

 

 

right now we are heading towards a .61 to .62C year on GISS(possibly) and that is top 5 warmest on record.  So yeah.  An entire year possibly with the ONI under 0.0 and we go top 5 warmest.  

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

CFS has made it up to 0.088C now.  The dailies are still above .20C.  I would assume the big AO+ is the main driver of this warming but that can't be proven by me attm.  Never the less I never expected the global temps to jump this quickly.  October was admittedly cooler than I expected.  It's obvious there is just to much heat in the upper oceans for the global temps to cool off from recent levels.  I expected November to still be around .10C on CFS.  Which it may very well be.  

 

Currently CFS finishes 11/11/13 at .23C(0.088C month so far) and AMSU channel 6 temps are in the top echelon of years this time of year.  Even warmer than last year.  

 

October did see the dailies drop well into negative territory long enough to push the month back to warm but not near record.

 

 

Unfortunately while ENSO is still negative nuetral and the sub surface is quickly warming to future NINO levels whether a nino happens or not.  Global SSTA have gone up for 3 weeks in a row back to .25C+ which is pretty damn high for this time of year given the ENSO state.  Last year was around this level because ENSO was warm but cooled by Dec/Jan.  This year it's the opposite.  So most of the warmth is outside of the tropics.  Which is what really makes me think a global jump in temps is on the way.  

 

It obviously won't be popular here but I am starting to see scenarios where 2014 ties record warmth or passes it. But I can realistically see a .70 to .75C year on GISS.  Not because we are off the charts for 3-4 months.  But more like there wont be many cool months below .50 or .60.  While I think we break .80C multiple times if we have a NINO.  If we get a big time 2010 like nino from early Spring to Fall then yeah I am all in for a big record breaker. ` 

 

 

right now we are heading towards a .61 to .62C year on GISS(possibly) and that is top 5 warmest on record.  So yeah.  An entire year possibly with the ONI under 0.0 and we go top 5 warmest.  

 

 

 

 

 

I'm with you on this one.  I'm starting to believe that a positive ONI seems likely for the majority of 2014 (although who knows with the performance of the predictive 3.4 models).  If that were to be a case, it would be only the 2nd time in 7 years that ENSO remained positive for the majority of a year (2009 being the other).  I'd like to see what the ENSO followers like GaWX think of whats going to occur next year.  I can see 2014 being in the top 3 warmest years on the GISS.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm with you on this one.  I'm starting to believe that a positive ONI seems likely for the majority of 2014 (although who knows with the performance of the predictive 3.4 models).  If that were to be a case, it would be only the 2nd time in 7 years that ENSO remained positive for the majority of a year (2009 being the other).  I'd like to see what the ENSO followers like GaWX think of whats going to occur next year.  I can see 2014 being in the top 3 warmest years on the GISS.

 

 

Its way too early to have much skill at all for 2014 ENSO. GaWX will tell you the same thing. By late spring, usually a forecast with some skill can be made.

 

For the start of 2014 (say January through March or April), the statistical models have a slightly negative ENSO...well within the neutral range of official ONI. They then try and have it go positive ENSO-neutral by early summer, however, the "blind spot" of spring is in the way of that. Dynamical models have a more robust ENSO prediction of warm-neutral throughout all of winter and then weak Nino by early next summer. If the last 2-3 years are any indication, the dynamical models have been terrible vs the statistical models, so I'd hesitate on trusting them right now.

[nflwxman]

Its way too early to have much skill at all for 2014 ENSO. GaWX will tell you the same thing. By late spring, usually a forecast with some skill can be made.

 

For the start of 2014 (say January through March or April), the statistical models have a slightly negative ENSO...well within the neutral range of official ONI. They then try and have it go positive ENSO-neutral by early summer, however, the "blind spot" of spring is in the way of that. Dynamical models have a more robust ENSO prediction of warm-neutral throughout all of winter and then weak Nino by early next summer. If the last 2-3 years are any indication, the dynamical models have been terrible vs the statistical models, so I'd hesitate on trusting them right now.

 

Agreed.  At this point we almost seem overdue though. 

[LakeEffectKing]

 

Agreed.  At this point we almost seem overdue though.

 

No such thing in science....

[nflwxman]

 

 

No such thing in science....

Chaos theory?

 

Yeah, I know.  I was just being facetious.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

Chaos theory?

 

Yeah, I know.  I was just being facetious.

 LOL, yes....I know you knew....I was just being a PIA!

[nflwxman]

 

 LOL, yes....I know you knew....I was just being a PIA!

haha Alright. As a mid atlantic snow lover- El Ninos are always overdue!

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS continues to stay way high.  Through 12z today CFS went back up slightly to .24C or so up from .23C.  

 

On the month we are now at .095C.  60 hours ago it was around .040C.  

 

in this case my prediction for a .075C in few days busted terribly low.  We are going to blow by .10C and if the temps stay up there for 2-3 more days.  Easily reach .15C by then it will be the 14th or 15th.  And it will become very hard to drop back down under .10C.

 

 

A .095C is a .65C on GISS. a .15C is roughly a .70C on GiSS.  The SON period will have a good chance to be over .70C in back to back years ever on GISS.  Only one other SON period was above .70C.  

 

This time of year is warming faster than any other period global in a seasonal view.

[nflwxman]

Not surprisingly, UAH came in quite a bit colder than September, anomaly wise.

 

+0.22. 

 

The UAH anomaly has been revised up to 0.29 for the month of October.  Apparently, there was some missing data on the initial press release. 

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

 

[donsutherland1]

GISS Data:

 

October

2013: +0.61°C (Tied for 8th warmest with 2011)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.233°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.174°C

 

Year-to-Date:

2013: +0.590°C (7th warmest)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.189°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.152°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

The UAH anomaly has been revised up to 0.29 for the month of October.  Apparently, there was some missing data on the initial press release. 

 

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

 

 

 

 

that makes sense. When it came out I thought it was wrong.  How could it be tied or right with RSS when the poles were both warm and UAH covers them.  They even share the same data from at least 1 maybe 2 sats.

 

 

Either way.  The yearly average is now around .24C on UAH to get 4th all time it has to be above .23C.  it will likely be 4th or 5th.  Barring a super torch or super cool off.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS is still blow torching on the dailies.  

 

Today through 12z it's at .26C.  It's been above .20C now for three days.

 

 

On the month Weatherbell is up to 0.106C through today at 12z.  

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

For those who have insinsuted in the past about the NCDC release times bieng biased.  Which is insane, oh well.  Never the less they actually have a release schedule.

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/oisst/navy-anom-bb.gif

 

 

Climate Monitoring Monthly Releases

Release dates of the Climate Monitoring U.S. National and Global monthly reports are tentatively scheduled and as such are subject to change. Definitive release dates are determined no later than one week prior to the reports' release and all public calendars will be updated accordingly. The closer to the release date, the less tentative it is. The associated National and Global datasets are released at the same time as the reports.

All questions regarding the reports and their release dates should be sent to [email protected].

Upcoming Climate Monitoring Releases

U.S. National

• November Release: 11 December 2013, 11:00 AM EST

Global

• October Release: 18 November 2013, 11:00 AM EST
• November Release: 17 December 2013, 11:00 AM EST

[The_Global_Warmer]

For what its worth the AMO was 2nd warmest September on record behind 1998.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

I want to be perfectly clear I believe there is a climate shift happening now. 

 

Like I think 2014 will set the NCDC and GISS records.  UAH.  not sure yet.  It will depend what ENSO does. 

 

 

My 2013 prediction was .59C on GISS.  Right now GISS is at .59C with two months to go.  Weatherbell is at .11C now.  Which is a .66C equivalent to GISS.  My prediction was because I thought ENSO would be more postive. It's turned out exclusively negative so far.  A Nino will happen eventually.  It's going to be very interesting to see how much the temps go up during an actual moderate-strong nino. 

 

Co2 will be well above 400ppm in May. 

 

1. 2010: 67

2. 2005: 66

3. 2007: 63

4. 1998: 62

4. 2002: 62

6. 2003: 60

6. 2009: 60

 

Ok.  So.  If the GISS temp goes .665C the rest of the year which won't be that easy. Will bring us to a .61C. 

 

The next OHC update will be telling.

[nflwxman]

GISS Data:

 

October

2013: +0.61°C (Tied for 8th warmest with 2011)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.233°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.174°C

 

Year-to-Date:

2013: +0.590°C (7th warmest)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.189°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.152°C

Thanks Don.

 

Solid performance by the CFSv2 addition method- I believe the month ended around 0.05 C.  What were the major revisions for the year- if any?

[nflwxman]

For what its worth the AMO was 2nd warmest September on record behind 1998.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

I want to be perfectly clear I believe there is a climate shift happening now. 

 

Like I think 2014 will set the NCDC and GISS records.  UAH.  not sure yet.  It will depend what ENSO does. 

 

 

My 2013 prediction was .59C on GISS.  Right now GISS is at .59C with two months to go.  Weatherbell is at .11C now.  Which is a .66C equivalent to GISS.  My prediction was because I thought ENSO would be more postive. It's turned out exclusively negative so far.  A Nino will happen eventually.  It's going to be very interesting to see how much the temps go up during an actual moderate-strong nino. 

 

Co2 will be well above 400ppm in May. 

 

1. 2010: 67

2. 2005: 66

3. 2007: 63

4. 1998: 62

4. 2002: 62

6. 2003: 60

6. 2009: 60

 

Ok.  So.  If the GISS temp goes .665C the rest of the year which won't be that easy. Will bring us to a .61C. 

 

The next OHC update will be telling.

Friv,  what climate shift are you referring to?  My thoughts on global temperatures is that the initial drop the PDO induced on global temperatures is now beginning to be offset by anthropogenic forcing, which will very likely statistically end the hiatus period in a few years.  Will be interesting to see what impact the next solar minimum has on temperatures (it undoubtedly blunted the 2010 surface temperature year a few hundredths of a degree).

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Don.

 

Solid performance by the CFSv2 addition method- I believe the month ended around 0.05 C.  What were the major revisions for the year- if any?

Unfortunately, I had accidentally overwritten my spreadsheet, so I don't have the revisions from this latest round of GISS data. I do know that the September value was not changed. From the change in the average figure (+0.588°C to +0.590°C) based on the October anomaly of +0.61°C, it appears that the earlier numbers changed very little. The reason for that might have been the government shutdown that led to a delay in releasing the September GISS data. By the time that data was released, some revisions that might have normally been made in the subsequent release were made prior to the release of the September numbers. 

[ORH_wxman]

Unfortunately, I had accidentally overwritten my spreadsheet, so I don't have the revisions from this latest round of GISS data. I do know that the September value was not changed. From the change in the average figure (+0.588°C to +0.590°C) based on the October anomaly of +0.61°C, it appears that the earlier numbers changed very little. The reason for that might have been the government shutdown that led to a delay in releasing the September GISS data. By the time that data was released, some revisions that might have normally been made in the subsequent release were made prior to the release of the September numbers. 

 

 

It appears June was revised downward again to 0.61C (its initial value was 0.67 and the last previous update was 0.66), and July was revised downward from 0.54 to 0.52...however, March was revised upward from 0.59 to 0.60, February from 0.50 to 0.51, and May from 0.54 to 0.57.

[ORH_wxman]

For what its worth the AMO was 2nd warmest September on record behind 1998.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

I want to be perfectly clear I believe there is a climate shift happening now. 

 

Like I think 2014 will set the NCDC and GISS records.  UAH.  not sure yet.  It will depend what ENSO does. 

 

 

My 2013 prediction was .59C on GISS.  Right now GISS is at .59C with two months to go.  Weatherbell is at .11C now.  Which is a .66C equivalent to GISS.  My prediction was because I thought ENSO would be more postive. It's turned out exclusively negative so far.  A Nino will happen eventually.  It's going to be very interesting to see how much the temps go up during an actual moderate-strong nino. 

 

Co2 will be well above 400ppm in May. 

 

1. 2010: 67

2. 2005: 66

3. 2007: 63

4. 1998: 62

4. 2002: 62

6. 2003: 60

6. 2009: 60

 

Ok.  So.  If the GISS temp goes .665C the rest of the year which won't be that easy. Will bring us to a .61C. 

 

The next OHC update will be telling.

 

 

I think there is almost no chance of setting the yearly temperature record in 2014 unless a bizarre El Nino develops in late winter and sustains through the summer.

[bluewave]

For what its worth the AMO was 2nd warmest September on record behind 1998.

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

 

 

I want to be perfectly clear I believe there is a climate shift happening now. 

 

Like I think 2014 will set the NCDC and GISS records.  UAH.  not sure yet.  It will depend what ENSO does. 

 

 

My 2013 prediction was .59C on GISS.  Right now GISS is at .59C with two months to go.  Weatherbell is at .11C now.  Which is a .66C equivalent to GISS.  My prediction was because I thought ENSO would be more postive. It's turned out exclusively negative so far.  A Nino will happen eventually.  It's going to be very interesting to see how much the temps go up during an actual moderate-strong nino. 

 

Co2 will be well above 400ppm in May. 

 

1. 2010: 67

2. 2005: 66

3. 2007: 63

4. 1998: 62

4. 2002: 62

6. 2003: 60

6. 2009: 60

 

Ok.  So.  If the GISS temp goes .665C the rest of the year which won't be that easy. Will bring us to a .61C. 

 

The next OHC update will be telling.

 

The OHC really hasn't changed much closer to the surface over the last decade which reflects the surface air temperatures.