ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 Do you have a month by month chart of that period? I thought it took off just after Sept. For GISS: July 1997: 0.33 Aug 1997: 0.39 Sep 1997: 0.52 Oct 1997: 0.61 Nov 1997: 0.61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 29, 2013 Share Posted October 29, 2013 So if the same temp in a neutral year 16 years ago would have proved that the 'hiatusisreal', does the same temp in a strong Nino year 16 years ago prove that the hiatusisnotreal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 So if the same temp in a neutral year 16 years ago would have proved that the 'hiatusisreal', does the same temp in a strong Nino year 16 years ago prove that the hiatusisnotreal? One month either way doesn't prove anything. But to be fair, there is about a 3-5 month lag between ENSO and global temps on average, and in 1997 the Nino didn't really get going until May/June. Which is why the biggest temperature departures didn't come until well after September 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 GISS finally updated for September: +0.74 which ties 2005 for the warmest September on record, at least preliminarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 ....bag had a hole in it... Bad call was bad.....maybe next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 wow, torch city Flamethrower torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 One month either way doesn't prove anything. But to be fair, there is about a 3-5 month lag between ENSO and global temps on average, and in 1997 the Nino didn't really get going until May/June. Which is why the biggest temperature departures didn't come until well after September 1997. Yes that was my point. Also for surface temps the peak correlation is the 3 month lag IIRC. TLT is 5 or 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I thought NCDC does include the poles, which is why it is so similar to GISS? But the map aboe shows it doesn't include the poles... are there different versions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 I thought NCDC does include the poles, which is why it is so similar to GISS? But the map aboe shows it doesn't include the poles... are there different versions? I thought so too, but according to their raster graphics, much of the arctic circle and southern ocean is excluded. It certainly would explain the discrepancy between GISS and NCDC this month ( also the 10 year trend on NcDC is less). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 NCDC doesn't extrapolate over the polar regions. They are still close to GISS trends however because when they stopped using satellite SST data recently, they put a huge hole over the southern ocean which has a pretty steep cooling trend which offsets the warming they miss over the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Preliminary Data: Tremendous Warmth for September... GISS Data: September: 2013: +0.74°C (Tied for warmest on record with 2005) Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.367°C Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.321°C Year-to-Date: 2013: +0.588°C (6th warmest) Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.244°C Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.205°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 Preliminary Data: Tremendous Warmth for September... GISS Data: September: 2013: +0.74°C (Tied for warmest on record with 2005) Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.367°C Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.321°C Year-to-Date: 2013: +0.588°C (6th warmest) Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.244°C Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.205°C Damn. In-spite of ENSO this year is coming in very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 Folks who don't have the courage to make any predictions in this thread shouldn't be calling out others who are wrong. you guys didn't even have it in you to make yearly predictions let alone short term ones which are hard to get right. But you are quick to call out others for being wrong. Speak volumes about your character. You all are welcome to make a prediction on how November will do on any of the global temp tracking platforms we have? Please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Damn. In-spite of ENSO this year is coming in very warm. The only thing preventing from us pushing above 2010 has been the recent El Nino failure a year ago and the continued cold to neutral Pacific ENSO. I guess the big question is whether late 2014 stays neural or transitions to Nino? The statistical models only get to +0.3 by next summer after a neutral winter. Average, statistical models -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Folks who don't have the courage to make any predictions in this thread shouldn't be calling out others who are wrong. you guys didn't even have it in you to make yearly predictions let alone short term ones which are hard to get right. But you are quick to call out others for being wrong. Speak volumes about your character. You all are welcome to make a prediction on how November will do on any of the global temp tracking platforms we have? Please do. I predict the totality of your predictions will be too high. So in case if I miss a prediction game, just put me down for ....oh let's see....Friv. minus .05... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Damn. In-spite of ENSO this year is coming in very warm. The land anomaly was +1.01°C, which was the warmest anomaly on record for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Folks who don't have the courage to make any predictions in this thread shouldn't be calling out others who are wrong. you guys didn't even have it in you to make yearly predictions let alone short term ones which are hard to get right. But you are quick to call out others for being wrong. Speak volumes about your character. You all are welcome to make a prediction on how November will do on any of the global temp tracking platforms we have? Please do. Why should anyone who thinks the predictions are foolhearty make their own? That is a serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Why should anyone who thinks the predictions are foolhearty make their own? That is a serious question. As results from previous years demonstrate, it is possible to be consistently close to the actual. For example, this year Don and I will likely both be within one or two hundredths of the actual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 As results from previous years demonstrate, it is possible to be consistently close to the actual. For example, this year Don and I will likely both be within one or two hundredths of the actual. Making a yearly prediction on temps is a lot different than guessing what the month will finish up with only 10 days into the month....one is a foolhearty prediction and the other is not. I mean, if you want to guess...fine....just don't start bashing others who aren't in the business of predicting a monthly anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2013 Author Share Posted October 31, 2013 Why should anyone who thinks the predictions are foolhearty make their own? That is a serious question. Because it's how you learn. When you are wrong you can look to why you are wrong and learn from it. Even if it takes being wrong a lot. If we pinpoint the AO effect on global temps then learn to predict the AO. We can learn to predict global temps more accurately on a shorter term scale. Which would probably open up even more doors for us to piece the puzzle together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 Because it's how you learn. When you are wrong you can look to why you are wrong and learn from it. Even if it takes being wrong a lot. If we pinpoint the AO effect on global temps then learn to predict the AO. We can learn to predict global temps more accurately on a shorter term scale. Which would probably open up even more doors for us to piece the puzzle together I agree with you actually...but I just think it is wrong to bash someone for not making a prediction. Particularly ones that have little known skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I agree with you actually...but I just think it is wrong to bash someone for not making a prediction. Particularly ones that have little known skill. I don't think Friv was doing that. I think he was objecting to those bashing him when they themselves don't make a prediction. if someone thinks they can do better than Friv, then show us. That was the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I don't think Friv was doing that. I think he was objecting to those bashing him when they themselves don't make a prediction. if someone thinks they can do better than Friv, then show us. That was the point. He was being criticized for saying something was "in the bag" when obviously it wasn't. That doesn't require the criticizing party to make a prediction themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 RSS for September: +0.26. http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 RSS for September: +0.26. http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt October is already out: +0.21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 what does everyone think about the upcoming AO and the global temps? Will land temps in the NH be warmer than the last few years causing a bit of a bump vs the deep cold we have seen settle into the mid lats? Secondly what will ENSO do? Will the weeklies warm back up to .25C+? The Indian ocean looks like it's warmed a lot recently as well. Tropical warming typically has a much larger impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 October is already out: +0.21 No one cares about RSS now. Apparently it's "cold-biased". Even though a few years ago the same accusations were being thrown at UAH, when RSS was running warmer. Something to do with who runs UAH. Well, who runs RSS? What is their motivation now for their cooler anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 No one cares about RSS now. Apparently it's "cold-biased". Even though a few years ago the same accusations were being thrown at UAH, when RSS is running warming. Something to do with who runs UAH. Well, who runs RSS? What is their motivation now for their cooler anomalies? There is no motivation for them. No one here (that I know of) has accused any of the major global temperature datasets of manipulating data. However, for the last 10 years or so, RSS has become a bit of an outlier compared to the surface data sets and UAH for trends. This could be due to the missing data in the quickly warming arctic, or some not yet detected bug in the algorithm. Since 2000 Trends RSS: -0.01 C/decade UAH: 0.104 C/decade GISS: 0.0664 C/decade NCDC: 0.061 0 C/decade HADCRUT4: 0.041 C/decade The fact that the two lower troposphere temperatures are that off is concerning. Again, most of the difference could be the arctic. For the record, the RSS should always be posted here as it's relevant to global temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Secondly what will ENSO do? Will the weeklies warm back up to .25C+? The Indian ocean looks like it's warmed a lot recently as well. Tropical warming typically has a much larger impact. The 3.4 weekly only warmed to -0.2 C. So, it remains neutral negative. If some of the dynamic model runs had verified, 3.4 would already be at or near weak Nino. Be very wary of these OISST maps. Last year at this time, they showed an incredible warming in 3.4 only to falter as quickly as the warming came on, suggesting faulty data. NOAA decided to ignore the intense warming in their weeklies, which ended up looking good. True sudden and strong warming doesn't just initially come on that fast at this time of year normally. Based on the last 38 Ninos, the chances for even a weak Nino in time for this winter are now 1% or lower imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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