2013 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

My guess is the ENSO-neutral trend will decrease as well once we get to the end of 2013...the global temps in the middle of 1999 were colder than the end of the this year will warm up from current.

 

My guess on the reason for the flattening trend is residual ENSO effects (essentially the -PDO signature not exclusive to the Pacific ocean) and the weak solar min/max (everyone focuses on the min, but this solar max will be significantly weaker than the others recently)

 

 

The start date for the trend won't change much from now to the end of the year because we are in ENSO neutral. It might bump forward one month to May 1999.

 

I'm not convinced the PDO and weak solar min fully explain the slowing. I think they can explain about 2/3rds of the slowing. 

[ORH_wxman]

The start date for the trend won't change much from now to the end of the year because we are in ENSO neutral. It might bump forward one month to May 1999.

 

I'm not convinced the PDO and weak solar min fully explain the slowing. I think they can explain about 2/3rds of the slowing. 

 

 

Run ENSO from Aug 1999 to present. It is slightly positive. While Sept 1999 - present is slightly negative. So it moves up a few months. That means Nov 1999 - Nov 2013 would be an ENSO neutral period for global temps (using a 3 month lag). I use the CPC trimonthly values.

 

I agree those two do not explain all of it. I think they explain a chunk of it. My educated guess would be that models are too sensitive to GHGs to account for the rest of it. (i.e. the actual feedbacks are not as strong as in models...perhaps it has to do with cloud cover)

[bluewave]

Run ENSO from Aug 1999 to present. It is slightly positive. While Sept 1999 - present is slightly negative. So it moves up a few months. That means Nov 1999 - Nov 2013 would be an ENSO neutral period for global temps (using a 3 month lag). I use the CPC trimonthly values.

 

I agree those two do not explain all of it. I think they explain a chunk of it. My educated guess would be that models are too sensitive to GHGs to account for the rest of it. (i.e. the actual feedbacks are not as strong as in models...perhaps it has to do with cloud cover)

 

The cooler NH winters that I posted about in the other thread probably make up the rest of the contribution to the 

slowdown beyond the -ENSO.

 

[ORH_wxman]

The cooler NH winters that I posted about in the other thread probably make up the rest of the contribution to the 

slowdown beyond the -ENSO.

 

nhem_winter.jpg

 

 

That might be some sort of feedback mechanism that we don't quite understand yet. It could also be a fluke but its been going on for quite awhile now, so its becoming less likely that its chance and more likely there is some sort of mechanism at work there. (i.e. perhaps this is somehow related to GHG feedbacks not being quite as strong as models show if there are hidden or complex negative feedbacks not yet reconciled)

 

Hard to say for sure.

[bluewave]

That might be some sort of feedback mechanism that we don't quite understand yet. It could also be a fluke but its been going on for quite awhile now, so its becoming less likely that its chance and more likely there is some sort of mechanism at work there. (i.e. perhaps this is somehow related to GHG feedbacks not being quite as strong as models show if there are hidden or complex negative feedbacks not yet reconciled)

 

Hard to say for sure.

 

Maybe the the reduced sea ice near the Kara and Barents works to lower winter Eurasian temperatures.

 

http://oceanrep.geomar.de/8738/

The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005/2006 in Europe

and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005/2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K Seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anti-cyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a

continental-scale winter cooling reaching -1.5°C, with more than three times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric

circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then again back to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model which may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K Seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area.

[nflwxman]

That might be some sort of feedback mechanism that we don't quite understand yet. It could also be a fluke but its been going on for quite awhile now, so its becoming less likely that its chance and more likely there is some sort of mechanism at work there. (i.e. perhaps this is somehow related to GHG feedbacks not being quite as strong as models show if there are hidden or complex negative feedbacks not yet reconciled)

 

Hard to say for sure.

According to this blog post by Tamino that outlines the findings of Kosaka and Xie (2013), the winter cooling trend is likely a product of natural variability within the system (a mechanism as you suggested).  They ran a model to POGA-H, that accurately reproduces northern hemispheric temperatures over the past 10 years, including the decadal cooling trend during the winter months (where nina/-PDO tends to have a stronger impact).  They did this without changing the overall forcing in the model, which suggests that the forcing has not changed, but rather a function of natural variability can explain the winter cooling trend in the northern hemisphere.  Based on that, it's unlikely a new feedback has emerged to explain the trend.  Obviously, models are fallible, but their results are pretty remarkable.

 

That being said, aerosols are obviously a whole different can of worms.

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/09/11/seasonal-nino/#more-6769

[nflwxman]

The cooler NH winters that I posted about in the other thread probably make up the rest of the contribution to the 

slowdown beyond the -ENSO.

 

nhem_winter.jpg

It is amazing since the PDO flipped officially in 2008,,NH winter temperatures dropped back quite a bit.  Do we have any data prior to 1975 on winter NH temperatures?  Can't get GISS data now due to the government shutdown.

[bluewave]

It is amazing since the PDO flipped officially in 2008,,NH winter temperatures dropped back quite a bit.  Do we have any data prior to 1975 on winter NH temperatures?  Can't get GISS data now due to the government shutdown.

 

You can see the big difference between the last 8 NH winters and the previous 8 years.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

No update for the weeklies yet.  But we can see the cool water in the far NE Pacific.  But the warm around it and on the Atlantic side keeps growing stronger with it.

 

[LakeEffectKing]

UAH:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245

2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326

2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238

2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251

2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102

2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016

2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146

2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069

2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174

2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155

2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209

2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199

2013 1 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.212 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009

2013 9 +0.367 +0.342 +0.392 +0.192

[Jonger]

Same as last year, almost exactly.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Same as last year, almost exactly.

 

 

 

Except that UAH is averaging .234C on the year.  Which is 4th warmest on record for UAH.

[Jonger]

Same as last year, almost exactly.

 

 

 

Except that UAH is averaging .234C on the year.  Which is 4th warmest on record for UAH.

In the period we live in, I wouldn't expect anything less than near record years. Why would it drop much right now? On the other hand, the warming that has happened on UAH is pretty minimal.

This whole science is hair splitting, we are debating tenths of a degree.

[The_Global_Warmer]

In the period we live in, I wouldn't expect anything less than near record years. Why would it drop much right now? On the other hand, the warming that has happened on UAH is pretty minimal. This whole science is hair splitting, we are debating tenths of a degree.

 

The warming isn't minimal.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like Antarctica oddly was responsible for most of the warm anomaly on UAH.

 

[bluewave]

Looks like Antarctica oddly was responsible for most of the warm anomaly on UAH.

 

 

Warmest winter on record there according to this site:

 

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2892

[Jonger]

Warmest winter on record there according to this site:

 

http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2892

 

I guess there was a lot of moisture, clouds and such.... Did the warm temps trigger the clouds, or did the clouds trigger the warm temps?

[Snow_Miser]

I guess there was a lot of moisture, clouds and such.... Did the warm temps trigger the clouds, or did the clouds trigger the warm temps?

 

I would imagine that the clouds prevented heat from radiating out to space, and thus caused the warmer temperatures. Probably meant more snow down there though.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We are lining up to have a record/near record warm October.  Unless the Russian land regions can off set enough of the heat.  The oceans are so warm. 

 

 

[Jesse]

We are lining up to have a record/near record warm October.  Unless the Russian land regions can off set enough of the heat.  The oceans are so warm. 

 

 

 

Beneath your avatar, are you actually trying to say "You're owner" as in "You are owner" (a statement) or are you attempting to use it in the possessive sense?

 

Maybe your (see, I used the right one!) GED classes didn't cover the difference between "your" and "you're", so I'll let it slide.

 

"There" are also three "theres" and "they're" all intact with "their" own meaning!

[The_Global_Warmer]

Beneath your avatar, are you actually trying to say "You're owner" as in "You are owner" (a statement) or are you attempting to use it in the possessive sense?

 

Maybe your (see, I used the right one!) GED classes didn't cover the difference between "your" and "you're", so I'll let it slide.

 

"There" are also three "theres" and "they're" all intact with "their" own meaning!

 

Look at the oceans boil.  I bet you love it.  Let's call it a tipping point.  Everyday the Earth slips further and further into chaos.  You pretend its not real.  Good for you.

 

 

Massive Ridging.  Keep the heat train rolling/

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

[Jonger]

So weatherbell maps aren't allowed to be posted or did that map go premium?

[Snow_Miser]

So weatherbell maps aren't allowed to be posted or did that map go premium?

 

Will said that the maps are copyrighted, so we should just link them instead.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is is silly at this point.  The Eastern pacific has saved our asses from smashing our global temp records.  It is being overwhelmed by the perpetual heat pump in the Northern hemisphere mid latitudes. 

 

 

 

Massive ridge.  tons of clear skies soaking up the solar energy.  These perpetual ridges are causing a ton of heat to be pumped into our oceans and atmosphere. 

 

ENSO has been neg neutral to neutral only the last three weeks.  You are all witnessing a jump in the baseline.  How subtle or not so subtle is yet to be determined.

 

But if bashing me makes you feel better about the Earth becoming perpetually warmer then have at it.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

 Nice peace and quite in this thread.  Unfortunitely the govt shutdown has prevented any weekly SSTA updates.

 

But we can see clearly its still warm.

 

CFS for October have started out at .120C.  We can thank Russia for keeping us from obliverating records.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Siberia is cold.  Persitant ridging will keep the heat machine going into oceans.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

To make things even worse.

 

The South Pacific has exploded in warmth.  This is a rather large flair up that is extending North West into the Western equatorial basin. 

 

 

 

 

 

It's been warm there for a while.

 

Will it cool off during a NINO or stay like this?

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

 Nice peace and quite in this thread.  Unfortunitely the govt shutdown has prevented any weekly SSTA updates.

 

But we can see clearly its still warm.

 

CFS for October have started out at .120C.  We can thank Russia for keeping us from obliverating records.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Siberia is cold.  Persitant ridging will keep the heat machine going into oceans.

 

 

Obliterating.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Obliterating.

 

 

OMG JESSE.  Look at the NATL. 

 

I heard you were having a bonfire party.  You could ask the Torch over the NATL for a light.  If he is busy ask the slightly skinnier torch over the NPAC to help.

 

Or you can use the ball of fire over the SW/SC/SPAC.

 

Dude you feel that intense awesomeness at seeing all those reds and dark reds OH MY. 

 

 

[nflwxman]

OMG JESSE.  Look at the NATL. 

 

I heard you were having a bonfire party.  You could ask the Torch over the NATL for a light.  If he is busy ask the slightly skinnier torch over the NPAC to help.

 

Or you can use the ball of fire over the SW/SC/SPAC.

 

Dude you feel that intense awesomeness at seeing all those reds and dark reds OH MY. 

 

 

Looks like ENSO has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks.  The CFSv2 and Euro both predicted near term drop in ENSO this month with a rebound coming later this fall and winter.  Would be interesting to see if it comes to fruition.