2013 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

Yeah I would never take that bet because we don't get a La Niña at this time...it would happen in late summer/fall. I'm just saying we're setting up well for another -ENSO/-PDO year, but I wouldn't expect five trimonthlies less than -0.5C at this point. I understand why some think a weak El Niño may occur but that could be wishcasting for Winter 13-14 more than anything else.

 

How is that wishcasting? The large growing warm pool in the deep western pac is classic Nino development. The CPC already gave a 30% chance of Nino by late summer, and that probability will likely increase in the next updates as the models ingest newer data on that growing warm pool. Right now I'd set the odds at about 45-30-25 Nino-Neutral-Nina by next fall. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Look's like 2013 is going to start out warmer than 2012.

 

I am guessing UAH is .25C warmer this year for January.  It's going to be very hard to be cooler or even as cool as 2012 with Jan-Mar obviously being warmer.  The Oceans are to warm attm, even with the recent ENSO cooling as of last week the weekly SST anomaly moved above 0.2C.

 

 

 

[nzucker]

How is that wishcasting? The large growing warm pool in the deep western pac is classic Nino development. The CPC already gave a 30% chance of Nino by late summer, and that probability will likely increase in the next updates as the models ingest newer data on that growing warm pool. Right now I'd set the odds at about 45-30-25 Nino-Neutral-Nina by next fall. 

A lot of people like a weak +ENSO because it increases the chances of a cold, snowy winter in the Ohio Valley/Lakes/Northeast. Most of our best winters have been weak Niño such as 03-04, 04-05, 76-77, 77-78, etc. 

 

Look's like 2013 is going to start out warmer than 2012.

 

I am guessing UAH is .25C warmer this year for January.  It's going to be very hard to be cooler or even as cool as 2012 with Jan-Mar obviously being warmer.  The Oceans are to warm attm, even with the recent ENSO cooling as of last week the weekly SST anomaly moved above 0.2C.

 

 

 

I could see the satellites once again being mild while the surface comes in cooler...

[The_Global_Warmer]

Pretty Surprising, I thought it would be around .25-.30C considering the Asian cold pool is not near as extreme and SSTs rebounded. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quote

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 13 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.134 -0.065 -0.203 -0.256

2012 2 -0.135 +0.018 -0.289 -0.320

2012 3 +0.051 +0.119 -0.017 -0.238

2012 4 +0.232 +0.351 +0.114 -0.242

2012 5 +0.179 +0.337 +0.021 -0.098

2012 6 +0.235 +0.370 +0.101 -0.019

2012 7 +0.130 +0.256 +0.003 +0.142

2012 8 +0.208 +0.214 +0.202 +0.062

2012 9 +0.339 +0.350 +0.327 +0.153

2012 10 +0.333 +0.306 +0.361 +0.109

2012 11 +0.282 +0.299 +0.265 +0.172

2012 12 +0.206 +0.148 +0.264 +0.138

2013 1 +0.506 +0.553 +0.459 +0.375

 

 

 

 

Quote

Due to the rather large 1-month increase in the temperature anomaly, I double checked the computations,

and found that multiple satellites (NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and Aqua)

all saw approximately equal levels of warming versus a year ago (January, 2012), so for now I’m accepting the results as real. The most common cause of such warm spikes (when there is no El Nino to blame) is a temporary increase in convective heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere. This would suggest that the global average sea surface temperature anomaly might have actually cooled in January, but I have not checked to see if that is the case.

Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies will be updated shortly are available on-line at

http://nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

;

The processed temperature data (updated shortly) is available on-line at

http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt

 

 

 

While Aqua below is not currently used in the UAH data set, since Dr. Spencer confirmed that it was comparable to the other data sets and a year ago.  So it might be to warm obviously since 2010 was warmer in January but for the actual global sst's see below...

 

We can see they have been comparable to late 2009 into 2010, but obviously a bit cooler.  But it eventually should have caught up with the surface temps and appears to have. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2010 is the Warmest January on UAH we can see in month to month times snow cover hasn't shown any Bering on global temps.  Which makes sense because in January most of the snow cover region's get near zero solar radiation and areas that do from 35-50N vary in snow cover around regions pretty equally.

[skierinvermont]

Wow that is a big spike in temp considering neutral ENSO conditions. The only other times UAH has broken +.5C have been during strong El Ninos. 

[nzucker]

Wow that is a big spike in temp considering neutral ENSO conditions. The only other times UAH has broken +.5C have been during strong El Ninos. 

 

Something weird going on with cooling SSTs.

 

We'll know this is bogus if GISS comes in a lot cooler, but of course the satellites are more prone to variation anyway. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Something weird going on with cooling SSTs.

 

We'll know this is bogus if GISS comes in a lot cooler, but of course the satellites are more prone to variation anyway. 

 

They are not that cool though and haven't been.  Other area's are making up for ENSO being so cool. This is going to be the natural progression as the Earth warms. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Last few year at 925mb from NCEP/NCAR:

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS coming in with the big jumperoo as well.

 

2013   1    0.44202013   2  -99.90002013   3  -99.90002013   4  -99.90002013   5  -99.90002013   6  -99.90002013   7  -99.90002013   8  -99.90002013   9  -99.90002013  10  -99.90002013  11  -99.90002013  12  -99.9000

 

 

 

 

 

 

So so for RSS it's a .50C difference from last January.

 

For UAH it is a .64C difference from last January.

 

Obviously this is no guarantee we are heading for record breaking territory.  But to be out of the top 5 warmest on record.  It's tough when January comes in this warm and things look to be "relatively" warm for the foreseeable future.

[nzucker]

Looking at SST maps, global SSTs seem to be cooling rapidly. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looking at SST maps, global SSTs seem to be cooling rapidly. 

 

Slight uptick this past week.

display plot oiv2.ctl ssta 1 03jan2012 to 06feb2013

 

[nzucker]

February global temperatures may be cooler due to the frigid airmass over Antarctica:

[SVT450R]

Yea ch5 temps are showing a large drop in the past 10 days.

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC for January is out:

 

2012  1    0.38322012  2    0.37352012  3    0.46982012  4    0.68202012  5    0.67432012  6    0.65572012  7    0.64002012  8    0.61402012  9    0.67582012 10    0.65182012 11    0.66402012 12    0.41872013  1    0.5433

[nzucker]

NCDC for January is out:

 

2012  1    0.38322012  2    0.37352012  3    0.46982012  4    0.68202012  5    0.67432012  6    0.65572012  7    0.64002012  8    0.61402012  9    0.67582012 10    0.65182012 11    0.66402012 12    0.41872013  1    0.5433

What did GISS show?

[The_Global_Warmer]

With AMSU plummeting for most o February it;s looking like it will be much cooler than January globally.

 

However the cool won't last.

 

The latest global sst anomaly's have risen again near 0.25C+

 

[skierinvermont]

CFS shifted further towards Nino.

 

[AvantHiatus]

With AMSU plummeting for most o February it;s looking like it will be much cooler than January globally.

 

However the cool won't last.

 

The latest global sst anomaly's have risen again near 0.25C+

That is an obnoxious trend for this time of year. Have global SST anomalies ever been this high in February? It's certainly higher than last year by a decent margin. Good to remember that we aren't discussing land temperatures which heat up much faster than oceanic environments. 0.25C+ is serious business during the cold season of sea surface temperatures.

 

Janaury 2012 experienced anomalies close to 0 C. Is this chart accurate?

[skierinvermont]

That is an obnoxious trend for this time of year. Have global SST anomalies ever been this high in February? It's certainly higher than last year by a decent margin. Good to remember that we aren't discussing land temperatures which heat up much faster than oceanic environments. 0.25C+ is serious business during the cold season of sea surface temperatures.

 

Janaury 2012 experienced anomalies close to 0 C. Is this chart accurate?

 

These are anomalies. An anomaly of +.25C in Feb is no more bizarre or concerning than an anomaly of +.25C in July. Also the chart is accurate. It is one of the primary sources of SST data. The anomaly of 0C occurred because of a Nina. 

 

 

Also I believe an anomaly of .25C for February would be 3rd or 4th behind Feb '10 and Feb '98 and possibly Feb '05. However, it would be by far the highest without an El Nino being present. 

[AvantHiatus]

These are anomalies. An anomaly of +.25C in Feb is no more bizarre or concerning than an anomaly of +.25C in July. Also the chart is accurate. It is one of the primary sources of SST data. The anomaly of 0C occurred because of a Nina. 

 

 

Also I believe an anomaly of .25C for February would be 3rd or 4th behind Feb '10 and Feb '98 and possibly Feb '05. However, it would be by far the highest without an El Nino being present. 

Makes sense, thanks for the clarification on this subject. It stands out in my mind but I expect the anomaly to drop again in March as the Southern Hemisphere cools down.

[nzucker]

Latest SST map released on 2/21 shows significant cooling in the ENSO regions between 100-130W, as well as in the PDO regions, although the Indian Ocean has warmed slightly. A lot of the warm water near the South American coast has disappeared, and I'm still not seeing any tendency towards Niño, although of course it's WAY early. I think global SSTs should take another drop soon if what I'm seeing holds. 

[skierinvermont]

Latest SST map released on 2/21 shows significant cooling in the ENSO regions between 100-130W, as well as in the PDO regions, although the Indian Ocean has warmed slightly. A lot of the warm water near the South American coast has disappeared, and I'm still not seeing any tendency towards Niño, although of course it's WAY early. I think global SSTs should take another drop soon if what I'm seeing holds. 

 

 

Most of the npac warmed it looks like to me. Firming up of the big orange blob and also less blues in the northwest pac off japan. That atlantic and indian oceans also seemed to generally warm. I believe it's pretty hard for the human brain to look at these maps and determine net warming or cooling. Last time you said the maps were cooling the data came in with a slight uptick, followed by a big uptick.

 

If there's another Nina pulse then yeah we could see cooling, but the subsurface is continuing to warm so I don't see that happening. 

[skierinvermont]

Take a look at the CFS chart above (which automatically updated). It's now showing official Nino conditions developing by August. Near Nino by April. The latest members (blue) were a bit more aggressive than the older ones (red). Would not be surprised if it continues trending.

 

Also AMSU temps have come down a bit from the extreme highs in January.. probably looking at a fairly warm .3-.4 for Feb. 

[Snow_Miser]

Take a look at the CFS chart above (which automatically updated). It's now showing official Nino conditions developing by August. Near Nino by April. The latest members (blue) were a bit more aggressive than the older ones (red). Would not be surprised if it continues trending.

 

Also AMSU temps have come down a bit from the extreme highs in January.. probably looking at a fairly warm .3-.4 for Feb. 

The CFS v2 barely has a Nino in the long range. It's forecasts aren't the best at forecasting ENSO either.

[AvantHiatus]

Some ensemble models indicating another decline into negative neutral again. These forecasts are not indicative as much as one would like and we should have a better idea of where the ENSO is going after Spring. Will probably remain neutral for the next 6 months (positive or negative).

[skierinvermont]

The CFS v2 barely has a Nino in the long range. It's forecasts aren't the best at forecasting ENSO either.

 

 

Obviously if it is just making Nino by August it is weak Nino since logically you get weak Nino before Mod or strong. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the CFSv2 is one of the better ENSO models and has done a decent job at predicting it. Even the original CFS did a decent job. 

[nzucker]

Obviously if it is just making Nino by August it is weak Nino since logically you get weak Nino before Mod or strong. 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the CFSv2 is one of the better ENSO models and has done a decent job at predicting it. Even the original CFS did a decent job. 

Back in the real world, though, the PDO regions continue to cool, and some colder waters have surfaced near Region 1.2.

[The_Global_Warmer]

In the real world the global sst anomaly's are still warm.  So if those regions really are cooling then it's not making much of a difference.

 

[skierinvermont]

Back in the real world, though, the PDO regions continue to cool, and some colder waters have surfaced near Region 1.2.

 

Not sure what the sarcasm is for?? My post was factual. It's pretty clear from the large warm subsurface pool that Nino or near Nino conditions will probably prevail this summer.

 

And SSTs haven't shown the cooling you have suggested... they remain at very high levels.

[nzucker]

Not sure what the sarcasm is for?? My post was factual. It's pretty clear from the large warm subsurface pool that Nino or near Nino conditions will probably prevail this summer.

 

And SSTs haven't shown the cooling you have suggested... they remain at very high levels.

It's not sarcasm pointed at you, it's about the ENSO models which are pretty unreliable in long-range forecasting. The real-world conditions just don't support the development of an El Niño, and I find that a lot of these models exaggerate a short-term tendency into a long-range prog. Thus, if we're seeing slight warming, they'll show a monster Niño arriving...this happened in 09-10 when we had CFS showing 97-98 redux and it happened in 10-11 when the plumes had a -3.0C Niña, clearly impossible. There's also so much spread in the modeling, from negative-neutral to strong Niño, that the only thing that's probably certain is that we won't have a strong La Niña.

 

I like looking at the PDO/SOI/OHC etc more at this point than models, and only one really points to a warm ENSO regime. I think it's best to wait a little longer before models are reliable. I didn't mean to come off as sarcastic but rather as comparing what computers show to what the actual ocean temperatures are telling us about the power of the cold PDO regime (look at how the Niño got killed this year). Sorry if it was seen the wrong way but you're no stranger to being a bit sarcastic in your posts.