2013 Global Temperatures

[tacoman25]

Aqua Channel 6, 7, and 8 are all now  at record warmth for this time of year.  Channel 7 and 8 more so than 6 but as of the 24th are all showing warming.  Which has been big in those channels the last 10 days.

 

 

Which also saw .10C shaved off the gloal ssta the last 2-3 weeks.  Coincidence, maybe.

 

 

The only thing to take from it is that UAH will probably be warm for September.  The last month with channel 6 temps near the top was June, which had a .30C+ on UAH.

 

 

Weatherbell is sitting at .147C with 4 days left.  That equates to roughly a .70C on GISS. 

 

 

 

 

The arctic isn't to bad I suppose. 

 

 

 

Isn't Channel 5 the main one that correlates to lower tropospheric temperatures UAH publishes?

[Snow_Miser]

Isn't Channel 5 the main one that correlates to lower tropospheric temperatures UAH publishes?

Yeah. Channel 5 is down.

[ORH_wxman]

Isn't Channel 5 the main one that correlates to lower tropospheric temperatures UAH publishes?

 

 

Yes, but UAH no longer uses Aqua since it has been deteriorating in the past couple years.

[tacoman25]

Yes, but UAH no longer uses Aqua since it has been deteriorating in the past couple years.

 

So how well do the channels Friv is citing actually correlate to UAH temps?

[ORH_wxman]

So how well do the channels Friv is citing actually correlate to UAH temps?

 

 

I don't know. But I'm sure it is getting worse with time as the satellite degrades. There's still probably some correlation there though.

[nflwxman]

So how well do the channels Friv is citing actually correlate to UAH temps?

Generally pretty well.  I have no firm stats, but channel 6 was floating around 2010 levels in January when UAH recorded a 0.51 anomaly.  It's probably good just to compare year to year still for the most part.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Generally pretty well.  I have no firm stats, but channel 6 was floating around 2010 levels in January when UAH recorded a 0.51 anomaly.  It's probably good just to compare year to year still for the most part.

 

In June.  Channel 6 reached 2010 for a few days.  June came in at .30C. 

[Jesse]

 

Generally pretty well.  I have no firm stats, but channel 6 was floating around 2010 levels in January when UAH recorded a 0.51 anomaly.  It's probably good just to compare year to year still for the most part.

 

In June.  Channel 6 reached 2010 for a few days.  June came in at .30C. 

 

 

It's funny watching you scramble for ways to make it appear the earth is torching at the moment when it is clear that GW has stalled for the past 15 years...

 

Your bias is so overwhelming it's almost sad. You literally WANT the planet to get warmer.

[nflwxman]

It's funny watching you scramble for ways to make it appear the earth is torching at the moment when it is clear that GW has stalled for the past 15 years...

Your bias is so overwhelming it's almost sad. You literally WANT the planet to get warmer.

Come on man really? It's a page about observations on global temperatures. Besides other the fact your statement is wrong in many ways, we don't need police here (aside from mods)

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It's funny watching you scramble for ways to make it appear the earth is torching at the moment when it is clear that GW has stalled for the past 15 years...

 

Your bias is so overwhelming it's almost sad. You literally WANT the planet to get warmer.

 

The only thing that will stop him would be a dramatic cooling trend. He's on a mission.

[skierinvermont]

It's funny watching you scramble for ways to make it appear the earth is torching at the moment when it is clear that GW has stalled for the past 15 years...

 

Your bias is so overwhelming it's almost sad. You literally WANT the planet to get warmer.

 

I'm not sure how providing aqua data constitutes bias or "scrambling for ways to make it appear the earth is torching."

 

Also, your statement that GW has stalled for the past 15 years is false.

 

The average of UAH, RSS, GISS, and Had4 has been warming at a rate of about .1C/decade over the last 15 years, which is slightly over half of the predicted long-term rate. 

 

In addition, the oceans have been absorbing heat at a rate of about .5W/m2 for the last 15 years. That's about 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy every single second for the last 15 years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The only thing that will stop him would be a dramatic cooling trend. He's on a mission.

 

 

I enjoy scientific observation.  There isn't going to be a cooling trend.  you wish there would be tho.  You keep wishing, maybe when Santa brings you snow he will also bring you a world without human induced warming that you are apart of that I have no control over.

 

 

 

In the mean time.  Aqua channel 6 warmed even more. Probably a peak tho.

 

CFS also has warmed back up substantially in the daily's.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for another riveting non contribution here.

[Snow_Miser]

The average of UAH, RSS, GISS, and Had4 has been warming at a rate of about .1C/decade over the last 15 years, which is slightly over half of the predicted long-term rate. 

 

This is not correct.

 

Using the Skeptical Science trend calculator gives you a trend of 0.03 Degrees C/Decade over the last 15 years, and 0.14 Degrees C/decade over the last 20 years.

 

This is less than a quarter of the expected rate over the last 15 years (0.21 Degrees C/decade), and less than half the expected rate over the last 20 years (0.30 Degrees C/decade). The trend over the last 15 years is not significantly different from zero.

 

 

http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Climate%20model%20results/over%20estimate.pdf

[skierinvermont]

By the end of this year the 15-yr trend will be .1C/decade, which will be half of the expected .2C/decade.

 

For the 20 year trend, the trend is .15C/decade. I'm not quite sure why the CMIP5 models simulate a whopping .3C/decade over this period. Obviously Pinatubo would have some effect but I doubt it would be enough to increase the trend from .2C/decade to .3C/decade.

 

If you assume .25C of cooling in 1993, .125C in 1994 and .05C in 1995, then a trend of .2C/decade becomes .26C/decade.

 

I also don't know why the model simulated warming 1983-2012 is a whopping .25C/decade. That seems like it would require a climate sensitivity of 4C+. 

[Snow_Miser]

By the end of this year the 15-yr trend will be .1C/decade, which will be half of the expected .2C/decade.

 

Please explain how 2013 can possibly increase the mean trend of 0.03 C/decade to 0.10 Degrees C/decade.

 

 

Actually, including the rest of 2013 so far on the SkS trend calculator (by selecting 2014 instead of 2013 on the end date), the mean decadal trend decreases slightly.

[skierinvermont]

Please explain how 2013 can possibly increase the mean trend of 0.03 C/decade to 0.10 Degrees C/decade.

 

average of datasets.png

 

Actually, including the rest of 2013 so far on the SkS trend calculator (by selecting 2014 instead of 2013 on the end date), the mean decadal trend decreases slightly. 

 

Isn't it obvious? Because at the end of 2013, the cherry-picked and extreme warm start year of 1998 falls off the 15-yr trend. You end up with a much more ENSO-balanced trend period that begins and ends in multi-year La Ninas. 

 

For example, the UAH trend more than doubles from .06C/decade to .14C/decade.

 

Typically when I give trend estimates I try eliminate the effect of extreme start dates. And technically my statement was correct because given the last 4 months of 1998 were quite cool, the September 1998-August 2013 trend is likely right about .1C on the various sources (UAH being the highest @ .14C/decade). 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sure how providing aqua data constitutes bias or "scrambling for ways to make it appear the earth is torching."

 

Also, your statement that GW has stalled for the past 15 years is false.

 

The average of UAH, RSS, GISS, and Had4 has been warming at a rate of about .1C/decade over the last 15 years, which is slightly over half of the predicted long-term rate. 

 

In addition, the oceans have been absorbing heat at a rate of about .5W/m2 for the last 15 years. That's about 4 Hiroshima bombs worth of energy every single second for the last 15 years.

 

 

False.

 

September 1997 - August 2013 linear regression trend:

 

GISS: +0.05C per decade

HadCRUT4: +0.03C per decade

RSS: -0.04C per decade

UAH: +0.05C per decade

 

Avg = +0.023C per decade

 

And its not going to be different by the end of this year either. Opps, I did 16 years. Still...

[Snow_Miser]

Isn't it obvious? Because at the end of 2013, the cherry-picked and extreme warm start year of 1998 falls off the 15-yr trend. You end up with a much more ENSO-balanced trend period that begins and ends in multi-year La Ninas. 

 

For example, the UAH trend more than doubles from .06C/decade to .14C/decade.

 

I'll take the odds that the trend doesn't increase by more than triple the value it is now due to four more months of data.

[ORH_wxman]

Jan 1999- 2013 is a cherry pick too...you have the strongest La Nina we have had since 1988 as the start point. You'd expect to have a much larger trend than like +0.08C per decade starting from there.

[skierinvermont]

Jan 1999- 2013 is a cherry pick too...you have the strongest La Nina we have had since 1988 as the start point. You'd expect to have a much larger trend than like +0.08C per decade starting from there.

 

That period is a little more +ENSO trending than I remembered.

 

Let's just statistically ENSO adjust.

 

The 15 year trend is .07C/decade. About halfway between what SL and I said. A little less than the .1C/decade I suggested. 

 

(The above is an average of NOAA, Had4 and GISS. Inclusion of RSS and UAH would likely make little difference as UAH has been warming the fastest of the 5, and RSS has been warming the least).

[skierinvermont]

I'll take the odds that the trend doesn't increase by more than triple the value it is now due to four more months of data.

 

The 15 year trend for UAH at the end of this year will be .14C/decade. That is a fact. 

[skierinvermont]

False.

 

September 1997 - August 2013 linear regression trend:

 

GISS: +0.05C per decade

HadCRUT4: +0.03C per decade

RSS: -0.04C per decade

UAH: +0.05C per decade

 

Avg = +0.023C per decade

 

And its not going to be different by the end of this year either. Opps, I did 16 years. Still...

 

The 15 year trend, August 1998-present is .1C/decade, as I said it was.

 

However, this period is a little more +ENSO trending than I thought. If we just ENSO adjust, the trend is .07C/decade. 

 

The ENSO-adjusted trend of .07C/decade has been much more consistent than the raw trend with much less variability around it. 

[ORH_wxman]

Neutral ENSO trend using CPC trimonthly values and linear regressing them is from 2000-present. The average of the 4 datasets over this period is roughly +0.05C per decade.

[skierinvermont]

Neutral ENSO trend using CPC trimonthly values and linear regressing them is from 2000-present. The average of the 4 datasets over this period is roughly +0.05C per decade.

 

I do not get an ENSO-neutral trend over this period. I get a strongly negative one, even using a 3 month lag (which makes it less negative by including some of the 1999 Nina at the start). 

 

I cannot find a single ENSO trend less than .1C/decade. 

 

The three closest are 1998, 1999, and 2000 to present with trends of -.12C, .15C, and -.12C per decade, respectively. You could average the former or the latter with the middle, and get about .07 or .08C/decade. 

 

The best method is to ENSO adjust, which yields .07C/decade. That value is fairly independent of the start date you select (as long as the start date is 1998 or later. Start dates before 1998 yield much higher trends, partially because they do not begin in the extreme solar maximum of 1998-2004).

[ORH_wxman]

I do not get an ENSO-neutral trend over this period. I get a strongly negative one, even using a 3 month lag (which makes it less negative by including some of the 1999 Nina at the start). 

 

I cannot find a single ENSO trend less than .1C/decade. 

 

The three closest are 1998, 1999, and 2000 to present with trends of -.12C, .15C, and -.12C per decade, respectively. You could average the former or the latter with the middle, and get about .07 or .08C/decade. 

 

The best method is to ENSO adjust, which yields .07C/decade. That value is fairly independent of the start date you select (as long as the start date is 1998 or later. Start dates before 1998 yield much higher trends, partially because they do not begin in the extreme solar maximum of 1998-2004).

 

 

From the start of 2000 to present, I get -0.01C per decade using linear regression, which then goes slightly positive if you go back to 1999. Again, this is using CPC trimonthly values...not sure if you are using different values. Maybe I screw up somewhere.

 

 

If you want to use a 3 month lag for global temps in response to ENSO (which is fair), then it means we shouldn't start the temperature trend until 3 months into 2000.

[ORH_wxman]

I calculated the break-even point for a negative slope to a positive slope on ENSO...it is between August 1999 and September 1999. August 1999 gives a slightly positive slope while starting in September 1999 gives a slightly negative slope. This is using the CPC trimonthly via linear regression.

 

 

So if we want to calculate an ENSO-neutral trend, using the 3 month lag, we can go from December 1999 to November 2013 (once our November data is in)...since we have to wait 3 months from our last ENSO data-point in 2013.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The far NE Pacific didn't bounce as high as I thought it would a few days ago.  On the flip side.  Much larger regions of warming have taken off.  The North Atlantic has warmed a lot.  As well as the Indian Ocean. 

 

AMSU channel 6 temps have started to drop.  But are still well out in front for 1st place.

 

CFS is at .150C with a day left or so.  I thought it would possibly go warmer about 10 days ago.  It didn't. 

 

I got October going .10C maybe .06C.  Can't see lower than that, even with Antarctica cooling off some.

 

 

 

 

 

The arctic forecasts by the GFS continue to get warmer as we go along.  Even with the cold land regions.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The lack of cool ssta globally is amazing.  There is one spot now that has gathered some cool anomalies over the far NE Pacific.  There is cooler ssta over the far East Central Pacific and along the SP sea ice edge.  But nothing gathered like the persistent heat in other regions.

 

The North Atlantic has continues to warm up.  As well as regions around Australia/Indian Ocean.

 

 

 

 

 

[skierinvermont]

From the start of 2000 to present, I get -0.01C per decade using linear regression, which then goes slightly positive if you go back to 1999. Again, this is using CPC trimonthly values...not sure if you are using different values. Maybe I screw up somewhere.

 

 

If you want to use a 3 month lag for global temps in response to ENSO (which is fair), then it means we shouldn't start the temperature trend until 3 months into 2000.

 

I'm using the cpc trimonthlies. My guess is you are confusing per decade with per year. -.01C/decade would be small, but .1C/decade is pretty significant.

 

 

 

I get a break even in ENSO (end date in May so as to allow us to use August temperature data w/ 3 month lag) in April 1999

 

So let's use say April 1999-May 2013 is the ENSO neutral period. 

 

We must thus use July 1999-August 2013 temperatures.

 

The temperature trend for this period on GISS is .065C/decade. Near the .07C/decade I suggested via ENSO adjusting or averaging 1999-present w/ 1998 or 2000 to present. 

 

 

 

The top chart is July 1999-August 2013 GISS temperature. Trend is .065C/decade.

 

The bottom chart is April 1999-May 2013 ONI CPC trimonthlies. Trend is zero.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm using the cpc trimonthlies. My guess is you are confusing per decade with per year. -.01C/decade would be small, but .1C/decade is pretty significant.

 

 

 

I get a break even in ENSO (end date in May so as to allow us to use August temperature data w/ 3 month lag) in April 1999

 

So let's use say April 1999-May 2013 is the ENSO neutral period. 

 

We must thus use July 1999-August 2013 temperatures.

 

The temperature trend for this period on GISS is .065C/decade. Near the .07C/decade I suggested via ENSO adjusting or averaging 1999-present w/ 1998 or 2000 to present. 

 

 

 

The top chart is July 1999-August 2013 GISS temperature. Trend is .065C/decade.

 

The bottom chart is April 1999-May 2013 ONI CPC trimonthlies. Trend is zero.

 

 

 

My guess is the ENSO-neutral trend will decrease as well once we get to the end of 2013...the global temps in the middle of 1999 were colder than the end of the this year will warm up from current.

 

My guess on the reason for the flattening trend is residual ENSO effects (essentially the -PDO signature not exclusive to the Pacific ocean) and the weak solar min/max (everyone focuses on the min, but this solar max will be significantly weaker than the others recently)