2013 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

nfl.. there are only 2 months ever that have broken +.8 and that is March 2010 @ .87 in a mod/strong El Nino and Jan 2007 @ .93 during a weak/mod El Nino.The next highest is .76 in Oct 2005 during a weak El Nino.

 

Some warming has occurred since those years (especially 05 and 07) regardless of ENSO. So I would say that breaking .8 in neg neutral is a possibility but there would have to be other contributing factors.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Latest NOAA ONI value for JJA is -0.4. While that is certain to increase on the next update, there is always a few month lag between ENSO and global temps. It's going to be tough to reach 0.8+ anomalies on GISS with -ENSO values. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there is a case in which values like that have happened in the past with a -PDO/-ENSO.

 

 

nfl.. there are only 2 months ever that have broken +.8 and that is March 2010 @ .87 in a mod/strong El Nino and Jan 2007 @ .93 during a weak/mod El Nino.The next highest is .76 in Oct 2005 during a weak El Nino.

 

Some warming has occurred since those years (especially 05 and 07) regardless of ENSO. So I would say that breaking .8 in neg neutral is a possibility but there would have to be other contributing factors.

 

 

 

 

Well September of 2005 made it to .74C+ on GISS. 

 

Here is a few factors leading into and around that time.  We can see things were pretty warm that month overall.  The most glaring factor is the Antarctic warmth that month.  Right now Antarctica is still way above normal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are going into this with warmer SSTA as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

[calculus1]

Here's a link to a WSJ article that came out yesterday discussing the upcoming IPCC's fifth assessment report.  I suppose the leaked headline of this report comes from this quote:

 

 

It states that the temperature rise we can expect as a result of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide is lower than the IPPC thought in 2007.

[Snow_Miser]

Preliminary GISS value for August: +0.62 Degrees C. We'll probably see this value get bumped down a few hundredths of a degree just like with the last few months. As of now, it stands as the 5th warmest August on record.

[Snow_Miser]

Prelim June GISS: +0.67C. That's pretty high and the 2nd warmest June on record for GISS.

 

May 2013 was revised downward to +0.55C.

 

The June value has also been revised lower. June is now +0.60 on GISS.

[nflwxman]

The June and May values have been revised lower. June is now +0.60 on GISS and May is now +0.53.[/quote

It also appeared as if the 2012 overall anomaly was bumped from 0.57 to 0.58. These revisions are often made up to a year after the fact.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If GISS averages .65C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .59C.  

If GISS averages .60C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .57C.

 

If GISS averages .70C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .61C

 

If GISS averages .75C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .62C

[Snow_Miser]

If GISS averages .65C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .59C.  

If GISS averages .60C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .57C.

 

If GISS averages .70C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .61C

 

If GISS averages .75C the rest of the year.  The end of year anomaly will be .62C

 

And of course the anomaly could possibly average lower than 0.6 Degrees C for the rest of the year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And of course the anomaly could possibly average lower than 0.6 Degrees C for the rest of the year.

 

There would have to be a really massive cool down in the oceans for that to happen. 

 

 

Here are all of the comparable analog years.

 

 

2003:  We can see 2003 had a warm spike in SSTA during August through October before cooling off by the end of the year.

 

GISSTEMP:  Sept-Dec:  63 73 52 72  = .65C

 

 

 

2005:  We can see 2005 had a warm spike in August.  But was pretty warm most of the year until cooling off at the end.  However 2005 only spent 4 weeks in a row near or above .30C in late Summer.  before dropping quite a bit by the end of fall. 

 

GISSTEMP:  Sept-Dec:  74 76 71 64 = .71C

 

 

 

 

2006:  We can see 2006 started the Summer with a large dip in SSTA.  Before the normal rise in mid to late Summer.  2006 made it up near .30C by the 2nd week of August and ran close to it above and below for 9 weeks.  before a sharp drop.  Then two more close weeks before a stronger SSTA cool down.  But it wasn't much of a cool down.

 

GISSTEMP:  Sept-Dec:  59 67 70 74 = .675(.68C)

 

 

 

2012:  We can see 2012 spiked near the .30C range in August with 1 week very close and two more above.  Then SSTA dropped relatively slow back down by the end of the year to the .20C range.  2012 ended up with a relatively cool December thanks to a great pattern for deep deep Russian/parts of Asian cold.  But still ended up well above the .60C range.

 

GISSTEMP: Sept-Dec:  68 73 69 46 = .64C

 

 

 

 

2013:  We can see 2013 took off at the end of June and flew up through July to reach the .30C range by the last 10 days of July.  Then we saw August spend the first third on .30 and that has spiked the last 3 weeks up to a .35C average.  So a total of 7 weeks running around .30C or higher.  Only 2005 reached close to the peak attm for 2013.  And 2006 averaged around the .30C range for a bit longer than 2013 but we have a few weeks to go before the SSTA typically drops and 2006 didn't match the peak that 2013 has put up. 

 

GISSTEMP:  Sept-Dec:  This tells me that going under .60C for the next four months will be near impossible without some sort of major intervention.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Currently Sept 2013 on CFS is up to 0.131C with 16.5 days left.  Unlike last month we know the arctic will be warming over the rest of the month as a whole and with the incoming pattern with the Atlantic/Laptev side of the ice being so far North + the big time SSTA in the Barents and parts of the Kara.  We are about to see some massive temp anomalies take over. 

 

 

 

OHC for the first 6 months of the year has sat at record levels.  This doesn't guarantee 2013 will see a huge record finish but it sure helps the argument that it will be a near record one at least.

 

 

 

Lastly this is just Sept 14-22nd from the GFS.  Everyday the modeled out put anomalies for the arctic region keep growing warmer as September gets longer in the tooth.  The weather has set up perfectly to utilize the Warm North Atlantic into the Scandinavian Sea and record North ice line to help drive some large anomalies.  If this pattern holds on into the last week of Sept.  Those anomalies will double at least North of 80.  The GFS is probably underdone as it is.  This is a positive feedback that has been created by the Sea ice retreating so much.  So it's there regardless of weather pattern but the pattern can effect how this will play out. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

All in all I see plenty of evidence that a .70C+ finish is likely.  And potential for something record breaking if ENSO continues on it's slow warming path.

 

There is just to much heat near the surface of the Earth right now IMO to be any cooler than .60C.

[skierinvermont]

Here's a link to a WSJ article that came out yesterday discussing the upcoming IPCC's fifth assessment report.  I suppose the leaked headline of this report comes from this quote:

 

Completely false quote:

 

"Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage."

[donsutherland1]

GISS Data:

 

August:

2013: +0.62°C (5th warmest August)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.252°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.209°C

 

Year-to-Date:

2013: +0.559°C (9th warmest August)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.156°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.123°C

[LakeEffectKing]

 

GISS Data:

 

August:

2013: +0.62°C (5th warmest August)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.252°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.209°C

 

Year-to-Date:

2013: +0.559°C (9th warmest August)

Vs. 1981-2010 baseline: +0.156°C

Vs. 30-Year Moving Average: +0.123°C

Thanks Don. Hey, do you have the data for the revised months (for 2013....I think Will had mentioned them in another thread), and how the corresponding rankings changed with the revisions? Thanks!

[donsutherland1]

 

Thanks Don. Hey, do you have the data for the revised months (for 2013....I think Will had mentioned them in another thread), and how the corresponding rankings changed with the revisions? Thanks!

LEK,

 

The revisions were as follows:

 

January: +0.62°C (down from +0.63°C)

February: +0.50°C (no change)

March: +0.58°C (no change)

April: +0.47°C (down from +0.48°C)

May: +0.55°C (down from +0.56°C)

June: +0.60°C (down sharply from +0.66°C)

July: +0.53°C (down from +0.54°C)

 

August: +0.62°C (N.A.)

[ORH_wxman]

 

Thanks Don. Hey, do you have the data for the revised months (for 2013....I think Will had mentioned them in another thread), and how the corresponding rankings changed with the revisions? Thanks!

 

June changed rankings on the latest revision...it went from 2nd warmest to tied for 4th warmest...and July went from tied for 10th warmest to 11th warmest. The others were the same.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

LEK,

 

The revisions were as follows:

 

January: +0.62°C (down from +0.63°C)

February: +0.50°C (no change)

March: +0.58°C (no change)

April: +0.47°C (down from +0.48°C)

May: +0.55°C (down from +0.56°C)

June: +0.60°C (down sharply from +0.66°C)

July: +0.53°C (down from +0.54°C)

 

August: +0.62°C (N.A.)

Thanks as always Don. Is there a site that shows the revisions, or do you save the preliminary data and then calculate the difference when the newest revisions come out? If the former, please pass that site address along so I don't have to bother you!!

[LakeEffectKing]

 

June changed rankings on the latest revision...it went from 2nd warmest to tied for 4th warmest...and July went from tied for 10th warmest to 11th warmest. The others were the same.

 Thanks Will.

[ORH_wxman]

 

nfl.. there are only 2 months ever that have broken +.8 and that is March 2010 @ .87 in a mod/strong El Nino and Jan 2007 @ .93 during a weak/mod El Nino.The next highest is .76 in Oct 2005 during a weak El Nino.

 

Some warming has occurred since those years (especially 05 and 07) regardless of ENSO. So I would say that breaking .8 in neg neutral is a possibility but there would have to be other contributing factors.

 

March of 2002 broke it during a neutral at +0.89 on GISS.

[donsutherland1]

 

Thanks as always Don. Is there a site that shows the revisions, or do you save the preliminary data and then calculate the difference when the newest revisions come out? If the former, please pass that site address along so I don't have to bother you!!

As far as I know, there's no site that contains the earlier data. I just keep the data from the preceding month to have a look afterward.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global SSTA updated today.  came in a speck lower than last week.  Very slightly under .33C+.  This marks 8 weeks running now at .30C+.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I expect September to warm before the month is out.  I can't say exactly when. 

 

But the anomalies over a large portion of the arctic are in the process of exploding upwards. 

 

ENSO has warmed quite a bit over the last few weeks. 

 

 

We can see where the North Atlantic SSTA have blown up have warmed up that area a lot.

 

If I had to guess attm.  I will go with .175C for now.  But I think it could spike higher.  We saw what happened at the end of September last year when the arctic anomalies started.  And yes I realize they were more widespread. 

[Jonger]

I just wonder how much of a plummet will take place once Antarctica goes back to normal, no way does it stay that warm for long.

[Snow_Miser]

I just wonder how much of a plummet will take place once Antarctica goes back to normal, no way does it stay that warm for long.

Not to mention the massively +EPO that's forecasted to develop. That's bound to chip away at that positive departure in the North Pacific and Canada away.

[Harry]

I just wonder how much of a plummet will take place once Antarctica goes back to normal, no way does it stay that warm for long.

 

 

I suspect that won't happen till the AAO flips and thus gets out of it's negative phase it has been stuck in.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The models are now showing +8C temps anomalies right on the pole over the 10 day period.  Russia is progged to be below normal as well go into late September.  That will help off set the arctic warmth some.

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

NCDC comes with the 4th warmest august.  Notably, ocean surface temps were tied for the warmest this month.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/08/

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC comes with the 4th warmest august.  Notably, ocean surface temps were tied for the warmest this month.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/08/

 

 

That is a bit ironic.  GISS came in .03C above 2005.  2005 blow torches from September through December.  On top of that 2005 was neautral/positive ENSO that goes into a NINA by November. 

 

2013 is heading towards positive ENSO conditions. We have had a negative ONI since the end of last year. 

 

 

To add more fuel to the fire harrys post above shows the GFS showng the AAO tanking hard again. 

 

 

CFS slightly went up today after going down for one day. 

 

 

 

 

 

TAO/TRITON shows that sub-surface warmth the last 3-4 days take off towards the surface. 

 

 

 

 

Cooling in the North Pacific has been off-set by the North Atlantic torching hard.  And ENSO rapidly warming. 

 

 

[nflwxman]

 

 

March of 2002 broke it during a neutral at +0.89 on GISS.

What a very strange set of months (march and april 2002).  They were both above 0.7+ coming off of a La Nina in an ENSO neutral pattern.  Must be one of those heat "belches" that the ONI index doesn't necessarily pick up on.

[Msalgado]

Completely false quote:

 

"Most experts believe that warming of less than 2 degrees Celsius from preindustrial levels will result in no net economic and ecological damage."

 

The most irritating quote in the entire article.  Its completely false yet because its in the WSJ its going to become psuedo fact.  

[The_Global_Warmer]

We can see ENSO sub-surface warming is reaching the surface.  The Western Indian Ocean has cooled off a bit.  the far North Pacific has as well.  But warming over the Central North Pacific should continue to get warmer.  The SSTA off the NA West coast should start cooling more.  The North Atlantic will cool some.  That is just hard to maintain. 

 

The biggest change is obviously ENSO.

 

CFS has slowly warmed the last couple of days. 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

We can see ENSO sub-surface warming is reaching the surface.  The Western Indian Ocean has cooled off a bit.  the far North Pacific has as well.  But warming over the Central North Pacific should continue to get warmer.  The SSTA off the NA West coast should start cooling more.  The North Atlantic will cool some.  That is just hard to maintain. 

 

The biggest change is obviously ENSO.

 

CFS has slowly warmed the last couple of days. 

 

 

 

 

 

With another large HP parked over the North Central North Pacific.  We can see SSTA start to jump in response.  Models park it over this region for the next week. And around day 6 they blow it up into a huge huge ridge. While blowing up an SLP over the GOA. 

 

 

 

 

That is a a 600DM, 500MB ridge with a 1040mb HP Surface High Pressure.  Essentially from now until and beyond another very large region of way above normal SSTA is going to show up. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS is now up to .150C with ten days to go. In spite of cooling over the far N. Pacific and in the GOA. Other areas like the North Central Pacific, ENSO, and equatorial Atlantic have been warming. We will probably see SSTA go back up above .35C again.

Without some cooling September is looking stronger and stronger for a .70C+ on GISS. Which has only happened once in September of 2005.

Forgot to add CFS had .08 last Sept. Giss had .69. A .61 difference.

Why?

The arctic. Giss baseline is 1951-1980. CFS is 1981-2010.

So in months where arctic warming is tremendous CFS will unde estimate it on GISS and NCDC.

The same in Antarctica to a degree.

I won't be Surprised if GISS is .75c+