2013 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

No update for August from UAH/RSS yet.  Does anyone know how ENSO is expected to look the next couple of months?

 

Definitely some warming.  There will be a good shot for the weeklies to reach .40C next week.

 

 

CFS has continued to warm so far in September.  I think Sept will be above .10C on CFS.  Can someone post last years September on CFS?

 

 

[Jonger]

 

Can't you just use this? It has last September. Looks like its almost the same, but last year averaged higher month to month.

[Snow_Miser]

 

 

CFS has continued to warm so far in September.  I think Sept will be above .10C on CFS.  Can someone post last years September on CFS?

 

 

 

 

+0.08 on the CFS for September, last year.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Gisstemp had a .68 Sept in 2012. 2nd Warmest on record.

[Snow_Miser]

Gisstemp had a .68 Sept in 2012. 2nd Warmest on record.

 

Which converted to +0.6 above the CFS temperature.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Nino 4 has spiked upwards quite a bit.  Whats the forecast like?

 

 

 

OHC has gone up to above .3C.

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

Well, here we go again.  It will be very telling for the state of the surface temps when we have a full 6+ month period of positive ONI values, something we have not been able to achieve since 2010.   As awful as these predictive 3.4 SST models are, there has been some significant warming in the area.  We shall see how the winter progresses (Selfishly, I want a weak nino due to the fact I'm a midatlantic snow lover).

 

[LakeEffectKing]

RSS...a decent drop:

2012 8 0.254 0.125 0.488 0.151 0.382 0.237 0.718 0.338 0.165

2012 9 0.382 0.205 0.619 0.332 1.032 -0.009 0.278 0.450 0.311

2012 10 0.294 0.222 0.403 0.258 1.021 0.219 -0.578 0.317 0.269

2012 11 0.194 0.311 0.209 0.045 1.254 0.419 0.341 0.232 0.155

2012 12 0.100 0.268 -0.148 0.173 0.559 0.375 0.084 -0.002 0.206

2013 1 0.441 0.488 0.361 0.472 0.448 0.745 0.899 0.423 0.460

2013 2 0.194 0.306 0.200 0.059 -0.268 -0.126 -0.831 0.248 0.138

2013 3 0.205 0.295 0.268 0.033 -0.269 -0.606 -0.994 0.290 0.116

2013 4 0.219 0.238 0.240 0.173 0.467 0.333 -0.550 0.244 0.192

2013 5 0.139 0.126 0.409 -0.136 0.512 -0.552 0.191 0.323 -0.054

2013 6 0.291 0.139 0.538 0.201 1.107 -0.494 0.721 0.381 0.198

2013 7 0.222 0.067 0.344 0.269 0.499 -0.761 0.304 0.236 0.207

2013 8 0.167 0.037 0.452 0.009 0.655 0.442 0.189 0.289 0.039

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS...a decent drop:

2012 8 0.254 0.125 0.488 0.151 0.382 0.237 0.718 0.338 0.165

2012 9 0.382 0.205 0.619 0.332 1.032 -0.009 0.278 0.450 0.311

2012 10 0.294 0.222 0.403 0.258 1.021 0.219 -0.578 0.317 0.269

2012 11 0.194 0.311 0.209 0.045 1.254 0.419 0.341 0.232 0.155

2012 12 0.100 0.268 -0.148 0.173 0.559 0.375 0.084 -0.002 0.206

2013 1 0.441 0.488 0.361 0.472 0.448 0.745 0.899 0.423 0.460

2013 2 0.194 0.306 0.200 0.059 -0.268 -0.126 -0.831 0.248 0.138

2013 3 0.205 0.295 0.268 0.033 -0.269 -0.606 -0.994 0.290 0.116

2013 4 0.219 0.238 0.240 0.173 0.467 0.333 -0.550 0.244 0.192

2013 5 0.139 0.126 0.409 -0.136 0.512 -0.552 0.191 0.323 -0.054

2013 6 0.291 0.139 0.538 0.201 1.107 -0.494 0.721 0.381 0.198

2013 7 0.222 0.067 0.344 0.269 0.499 -0.761 0.304 0.236 0.207

2013 8 0.167 0.037 0.452 0.009 0.655 0.442 0.189 0.289 0.039

 

 

I am betting the over by .05C for UAH.  Because of Antarctica.

 

UAH is never this late.  Maybe version 6.0 is coming.

 

 

[Jonger]

UAH V5.6 Global Temperature Update for August, 2013: +0.16 deg. C

[nflwxman]

UAH V5.6 Global Temperature Update for August, 2013: +0.16 deg. C

Based on the CFSv2, there might be a large discrepancy between upper troposphere and surface temps in August.

 

We shall see.

[ORH_wxman]

Based on the CFSv2, there might be a large discrepancy between upper troposphere and surface temps in August.

 

We shall see.

 

Not that uncommon to see the satellite and sfc based data differ on a monthly basis. Usually on an annual basis though they will strongly agree.

[nflwxman]

Not that uncommon to see the satellite and sfc based data differ on a monthly basis. Usually on an annual basis though they will strongly agree.

Agreed

[LakeEffectKing]

 

I am betting the over by .05C for UAH.

Nope:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245

2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326

2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238

2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251

2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102

2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016

2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146

2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069

2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174

2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155

2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209

2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199

2013 1 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.212 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.107 +0.208 +0.009

[nflwxman]

 

Nope:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245

2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326

2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238

2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251

2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102

2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016

2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146

2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069

2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174

2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155

2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209

2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199

2013 1 +0.496 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220

2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.212 +0.074

2013 8 +0.158 +0.107 +0.208 +0.009

Different baselines.  RSS is 1979-1998 and UAH is 1981-2010.  Thus, UAH is pretty close this month to about 0.05 degrees above RSS (if that's what Friv meant).

[LakeEffectKing]

 

Different baselines.  RSS is 1979-1998 and UAH is 1981-2010.  Thus, UAH is pretty close this month to about 0.05 degrees above RSS (if that's what Friv meant).

 I think we are all quite versed to the differing baselines. I'm certain he meant (and will admit to) his feeling that UAH should have come in around +.22 (which is about what I actually thought it would come in, honestly).

[nflwxman]

 

 I think we are all quite versed to the differing baselines. I'm certain he meant (and will admit to) his feeling that UAH should have come in around +.22 (which is about what I actually thought it would come in, honestly).

Gotcha.  It is easy to forget the baselines occasionally though.  I wish they would all just standardize.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

UAH V5.6 Global Temperature Update for August, 2013: +0.16 deg. C

 

Sorry Jonger....didn't see that you'd already posted UAH...

[LakeEffectKing]

 

Gotcha.  It is easy to forget the baselines occasionally though.  I wish they would all just standardize.

 

Really doesn't matter anyway since it's the trends that most people are concerned with, respect to CC.

[Snow_Miser]

RSS came in as the 14th warmest August on record. Pretty close to the middle of the pack.

[Snow_Miser]

 UAH came in as the 11th warmest August on record. Somewhat warmer with the "placement" than RSS.

[tacoman25]

Gotcha.  It is easy to forget the baselines occasionally though.  I wish they would all just standardize.

 

Well, UAH/RSS can't standardize to the surface baselines since they don't have records before 1979. So it would be up to GISS/NCDC/HadCRU to standardize to a 1981-2010 baseline, and then we'd have everyone pretty much on the same page.

 

But I doubt that happens - not when it would make their anomalies appear much lower.

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH came in slightly cooler than RSS.  I thought Antarctica would even the score.  Guess not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

CFS is around +0.10C for the first third of Sept.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

SSTA weeklies have dropped back to .331C.  this marks 7 weeks now at or above .30C. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

On top of the already warm global SSTs.

 

ENSO is making moves towards more warmth.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS continues to trend warmer for the month of September.  We still have nothing back from NCDC or GISS for August and may not for another week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

CFS continues to trend warmer for the month of September.  We still have nothing back from NCDC or GISS for August and may not for another week.

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.grammar-monster.com/easily_confused/youre_your.htm

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS came in with a .62C+ for August. Iirc that is 5th warmest on record.

 

CFS has seen a large trend upwards now. 

 

 

 

 

 

The arctic is about to pump out some pretty massive warm anomalies.  Probably what happened last year around this time as well.  Considering the oceans have been even warmer than last year we may see another run of record warmth for GISS this Fall.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Conditions are setting up now for a potentially record setting September and rest of the year. 

 

Looking back on the Summer.  GISS seems to have made some downward revisions.  The JJA period finished at .58C+ which is tied with 2010 for the 4th warmest period in GISS records.

 

This is with June revised to .60C+ and July to .53C+.  

 

 

So now to the current month which is 13 days in out of 30.  So almost 50% of it.  So far compared to last September which is the second warmest on record at .68C+.  The warmest is 2005 at .74C+.  Is that Antarctica is much warmer.  So far the arctic has been cooler.  But the arctic is going to spike which is starting as we speak, it probably won't match the levels last year reached towards the end of September but it will be warming up a lot. 

 

 

Because the arctic is going to blow torch for a while.  It's going to be tough to cool off much the rest of the month.  But the biggest difference going foward attm the moment vs last year is the SSTA.  We saw temps spike in late Sept and stay warm into late November as SSTA cooled down and the Northern Hemisphere winter set up favorably for major Russian region cold.  Which helped December come in at .46C even though SSTA were relatively high coming into the month.  We saw Jan rebound back up to .62C.

 

So we are going into the Fall period with SSTA currently reaching a .35C three week average.  And  7 week run now at or above .30C.  It is impossible to predict where they will go next.  But without a NINA it's pretty much sure they won't drop below .20C. 

 

We may even see the run of .30C SSTA or higher continue for a while with the situation in the tropics continuing to show more signs of warming on the way.  Let's also keep in mind for the first 6 months of this year OHC has gone up to record levels.  There is a correlation between OHC and a parameter for Global temps. This is another smoking gun for a potential record run with surface temps if not even a jump upwards to a higher level. 

 

Most of us have known this was coming for a long time now.  Some expect a lot of warming the rest of this decade others thing no warming or cooling is taking place.  If the current situation doesn't convince anyone that we are not cooling nothing will.

 

Back of the envelope Math based on the SSTA assuming no change in ENSO is favorable for the next 3 months at least to average .65C to .75C+ on GISS.  However there is now a realistic shot at things ending up higher than that by either one month just busting out towards a .80 to .90C anomaly during the next three months or multiple months above .75C.

 

 

We can see the ENSO warming.  This image is a 5 day running mean.  Not a single day snapshot of the global SSTA. 

 

We can see that the ENSO sub-surface region has continued to warm up.  The CPC sub-surface charts also show it. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

Conditions are setting up now for a potentially record setting September and rest of the year.

Looking back on the Summer. GISS seems to have made some downward revisions. The JJA period finished at .58C+ which is tied with 2010 for the 4th warmest period in GISS records.

This is with June revised to .60C+ and July to .53C+.

So now to the current month which is 13 days in out of 30. So almost 50% of it. So far compared to last September which is the second warmest on record at .68C+. The warmest is 2005 at .74C+. Is that Antarctica is much warmer. So far the arctic has been cooler. But the arctic is going to spike which is starting as we speak, it probably won't match the levels last year reached towards the end of September but it will be warming up a lot.

Because the arctic is going to blow torch for a while. It's going to be tough to cool off much the rest of the month. But the biggest difference going foward attm the moment vs last year is the SSTA. We saw temps spike in late Sept and stay warm into late November as SSTA cooled down and the Northern Hemisphere winter set up favorably for major Russian region cold. Which helped December come in at .46C even though SSTA were relatively high coming into the month. We saw Jan rebound back up to .62C.

So we are going into the Fall period with SSTA currently reaching a .35C three week average. And 7 week run now at or above .30C. It is impossible to predict where they will go next. But without a NINA it's pretty much sure they won't drop below .20C.

We may even see the run of .30C SSTA or higher continue for a while with the situation in the tropics continuing to show more signs of warming on the way. Let's also keep in mind for the first 6 months of this year OHC has gone up to record levels. There is a correlation between OHC and a parameter for Global temps. This is another smoking gun for a potential record run with surface temps if not even a jump upwards to a higher level.

Most of us have known this was coming for a long time now. Some expect a lot of warming the rest of this decade others thing no warming or cooling is taking place. If the current situation doesn't convince anyone that we are not cooling nothing will.

Back of the envelope Math based on the SSTA assuming no change in ENSO is favorable for the next 3 months at least to average .65C to .75C+ on GISS. However there is now a realistic shot at things ending up higher than that by either one month just busting out towards a .80 to .90C anomaly during the next three months or multiple months above .75C.

We can see the ENSO warming. This image is a 5 day running mean. Not a single day snapshot of the global SSTA.

We can see that the ENSO sub-surface region has continued to warm up. The CPC sub-surface charts also show it.

Latest NOAA ONI value for JJA is -0.4. While that is certain to increase on the next update, there is always a few month lag between ENSO and global temps. It's going to be tough to reach 0.8+ anomalies on GISS with -ENSO values. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there is a case in which values like that have happened in the past with a -PDO/-ENSO.