2013 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global SSTS have made it to rarefied company.

 

Near .35C.  This has only been done in late 1997/98.  2005 and 2010.  This is strong peak nino territory.  Without the NINO. 

 

 

 

 

ENSO might show some surface warming as well. But that is just a guess off the chart below.

 

 

The 0.92 is equal to to a .62(.57-.67) on GISS.  This is lower than the earlier projected .68 which is the August record on GISS. 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

And in context over the last 12 years:

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

And in context over the last 12 years:

 

 

 

In that context.  I would assume we have had a weak nino from last Summer to enso positive back to weak nino which is strengthening. 

 

But the reality is enso positive to enso negative for almost 10 months running now.

 

 

We have never seen the ssts warm up that much and not cause a spike in temps.  So this enso negative year is going to likely be the warmest of its kind on the records. 

 

 

[nflwxman]

In that context. I would assume we have had a weak nino from last Summer to enso positive back to weak nino which is strengthening.

But the reality is enso positive to enso negative for almost 10 months running now.

We have never seen the ssts warm up that much and not cause a spike in temps. So this enso negative year is going to likely be the warmest of its kind on the records.

What is the lag between these SSTs and their impact on the surface temp dataset? 2 months or so? That would probably mean sept and October will be quite warm.

[Snow_Miser]

In that context.  I would assume we have had a weak nino from last Summer to enso positive back to weak nino which is strengthening. 

 

But the reality is enso positive to enso negative for almost 10 months running now.

 

 

We have never seen the ssts warm up that much and not cause a spike in temps.  So this enso negative year is going to likely be the warmest of its kind on the records. 

 

 

 

The CPC says that ENSO has been neutral for 2013. Hence the large swings in temperatures unrelated to ENSO this year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

What is the lag between these SSTs and their impact on the surface temp dataset? 2 months or so? That would probably mean sept and October will be quite warm.

 

 

Yeah iirc that is what ORH said last year.  Yeah.  August is warm.  This is 5 weeks in a row of around .30 and now the 5th weeks pops to .35C.  The three weeks before that that were .25C.

 

 

We are probably around the peak now.  Nothing indicates the drop will be hard and fast.  ENSO sub-surface is pretty mild. 

 

 

 

 

 

The CPC says that ENSO has been neutral for 2013. Hence the large swings in temperatures unrelated to ENSO this year.

 

 

the only large swing is for it to be warm and the warmest is yet to come.  There is no way around this year being very warm vs the ENSO state. 

[LithiaWx]

We continue to cool rapidly from the peak we saw in mid August.

[The_Global_Warmer]

here is some ssta info.

 

30N-90N:

 

 

30S to 30N:

 

 

 

90S to 30S:

 

[e pluribus unum]

In that context.  I would assume we have had a weak nino from last Summer to enso positive back to weak nino which is strengthening. 

 

But the reality is enso positive to enso negative for almost 10 months running now.

 

 

We have never seen the ssts warm up that much and not cause a spike in temps.  So this enso negative year is going to likely be the warmest of its kind on the records. 

 

 

 

Late 2005 was also very warm relative to ENSO. 2004-05 was a weak Nino but then ENSO went neutral and turned to weak Nina in 2005-06. 

[tacoman25]

Late 2005 was also very warm relative to ENSO. 2004-05 was a weak Nino but then ENSO went neutral and turned to weak Nina in 2005-06. 

 

Yeah, and what Friv (Global Warmer) has to remember is that we are at a point now where the last Nina ended 18 months ago. We've been neutral ENSO for awhile. Unlike last year where we were following a 2 year -ENSO episode.

 

It's been a while since we've seen a neutral period for this long...in fact, the last time was 1992-1994.

[nflwxman]

Yeah, and what Friv (Global Warmer) has to remember is that we are at a point now where the last Nina ended 18 months ago. We've been neutral ENSO for awhile. Unlike last year where we were following a 2 year -ENSO episode.

It's been a while since we've seen a neutral period for this long...in fact, the last time was 1992-1994.

Not all ENSO neutrals are created equal. We've been solidly negative and even bordering on La Niña conditions for the last 9 months or so. So, the SST spike is quite unusual.

[Snow_Miser]

This month is ending up to be the exact opposite of July with the majority of the month seeing positive daily departures on the CFS, with a sharp cooling in the daily temperature departures towards the end of the month. There has been a gradual decline in the monthly temperature anomaly for a few days now on the CFS. It's a race against time to see how much the CFS anomaly will cool from now to the end of the month. We will be in positive territory, but may be closer to +0.05 for the anomaly than +0.13 like it was before.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Not all ENSO neutrals are created equal. We've been solidly negative and even bordering on La Niña conditions for the last 9 months or so. So, the SST spike is quite unusual.

 

Precisely.  This is completely driven outside of ENSO.  On top of that with ENSO being negative it has to make up for that.  This is a 5 week average above .30C and the last week around .35C. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Wow]

I do like seeing a warm pool in the GOA heading into the fall and winter seasons. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Will we hit .40C next week? 

 

CFS says August won't finish at a record level. 

 

how long before it goes back warm again? 1 day, 3 days, 5 days, a week? longer?

 

 

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

Not all ENSO neutrals are created equal. We've been solidly negative and even bordering on La Niña conditions for the last 9 months or so. So, the SST spike is quite unusual.

 

Yes, but it's following a +ENSO period. We haven't had any type of ENSO neutral this far removed from La Nina since the early 1990s.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yes, but it's following a +ENSO period. We haven't had any type of ENSO neutral this far removed from La Nina since the early 1990s.

 

With that said.  It doesn't negate the very warm ssts that almost exclusively come from NINO events.

[The_Global_Warmer]

North Atlantic has blown up. 

 

North Pacific is on fire.

 

Western Pacific is warm all over. 

 

Central Atlantic is a spa.

 

 The Norwegian Seas are horse torching.

 

Enso 2-4 has flipped a bit. 

 

Central Indian ocean warming up.

 

 

 

August looks to be .61C(.56 - .66C) GISSTEMP equivalent. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has cooled slightly.  Good for the short term.

 

The blue over the CONUS is going go vanish.

 

 

 

 

Eight long days ago I said that.

 

This is the outcome with one day left.  I would give my self a B-.  The blue has almost vanished.  But not quite.  My anomaly was below -4.5F now it's amost 0F might go positive.  High was 102F yesterday new record.  Today forecast for 101-102F.

 

 

 

Here is an SSTA update:

 

tremendous.  Don't be surprised if we get close to .40C or higher. Look at the West Central/SW Pacific Horse torching.  30-70N is also Super torching.

 

ENSO shows some warming.

 

 

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

The global anomaly has also dropped by almost half since you made that post. Quite a fall off.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Arctic warmth.  If the Dipole comes.  It will be cooler than if an Kara HP came. 

 

 

 

 

 

With such a piss poor ASI Season for the Warm-vista Nations.  Seeing that blue line reach back above for the start of Sept is big for them. 

 

 

 

Rumors are the skeptics are quite right now.  Waiting to see if the next NODC OHC update and global temps are warm if so they will have to align with the Warminists. 

 

 

We are being told by a representative of the Denier evil empire coalition that they are working on a strategy if a .40C+ weekly happens next week.  Explosions of NH heat is hard to explain away.

 

Warministas are ready to party hard for a .40C with a neg nea enso. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Arctic warmth.  If the Dipole comes.  It will be cooler than if an Kara HP came. 

 

 

 

 

 

With such a piss poor ASI Season for the Warm-vista Nations.  Seeing that blue line reach back above for the start of Sept is big for them. 

 

 

 

Rumors are the skeptics are quite right now.  Waiting to see if the next NODC OHC update and global temps are warm if so they will have to align with the Warminists. 

 

 

We are being told by a representative of the Denier evil empire coalition that they are working on a strategy if a .40C+ weekly happens next week.  Explosions of NH heat is hard to explain away.

 

Warministas are ready to party hard for a .40C with a neg nea enso. 

 

I would say that I fall into the skeptic group. I believe that our climate is changing but I don't think man is the main driver. Up until this summer, I thought that the latent heat absorption by the long term melting arctic sea ice was main factor in the flat-line in global temps as witnessed by us all over the last several years. However, this years increase in extent without a major rise in global temps would lead me to believe otherwise. So, now one must take a hard look at the evidence and try to find where this so-called "extra heat" is going. The oceans can't be the hiding place forever....can it?

[The_Global_Warmer]

As I have learned through ITPs in the cryosphere.  The oceans can hold a ton of heat without much of a change in the atmosphere.  There is so much room in the oceans for the heat to be stored. 

 

I have many reasons to believe the Earths energy imbalance is growing, energy uptake is still growing.  That go past atmosphere temps.

 

 

 

Even though atmosphere is also warming when natural oscillation and other factors are accounted for. 

 

2013 should be the year of warning of the imminent warming. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global  SSTA Weeklies are in.

 

 

 

Now up to .37C.  This is now 6 weeks in a row at .30C+.  This will impact global temps the rest of the year.  We just don't have ssts get this warm without near record or record warmth on the atmosphere temps afterwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is not just highly coincidental that the torching is at the same latitudes as the big land and sea ice loss areas, snow cover loss areas, largest decade to decade air temp changes.  Also the region of the Earth most effected by feedback's from ice darkening to ghg forcing induced. 

 

 

Another year where the Northern Latitude oceans are just on fire during peak feedback time for heat detainment/build up.

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

Global  SSTA Weeklies are in.

 

 

 

Now up to .37C.  This is now 6 weeks in a row at .30C+.  This will impact global temps the rest of the year.  We just don't have ssts get this warm without near record or record warmth on the atmosphere temps afterwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is not just highly coincidental that the torching is at the same latitudes as the big land and sea ice loss areas, snow cover loss areas, largest decade to decade air temp changes.  Also the region of the Earth most effected by feedback's from ice darkening to ghg forcing induced. 

 

 

Another year where the Northern Latitude oceans are just on fire during peak feedback time for heat detainment/build up.

 

 

Then how do you explain how CFS plummeted the last half of August?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Then how do you explain how CFS plummeted the last half of August?

 

 

I think context is needed.

 

 

CFS finished August with roughly a .06C SSTA.

 

This equates to a .61C(.56-.66C) on GISTEMP.

 

A .61 would put 2013 with 2009 in a tie for 5th warmest all time August monthly anomalies out of 134 years.  So the plummet in the modern sense hasn't been much of a cool spell.  Now it's back above 0C. 

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

Then how do you explain how CFS plummeted the last half of August?

I believe there is also a 2 month lag or

so between SSTs and surface air temps. This spike may not even impact surface temps until the middle or end of September.

[skierinvermont]

Then how do you explain how CFS plummeted the last half of August?

 

Weekly global T is most closely correlated to and caused by tropical convection IIRC.

[The_Global_Warmer]

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

There is some ENSO warming reaching the surface level.

 

 

September is starting out warm.  Probably to get warmer.