2013 Global Temperatures

[Snow_Miser]

August is starting off with a +0.03 Degree C anomaly on the CFS. Obviously way too early to tell how this month will finish off.

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH is out.

 

 

UAH is now at .224C for the year.  This is still slightly above 2002 and 2009 for 4th warmest year on UAH.

 

 

 

 

The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 19 months are:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245
2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326
2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238
2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251
2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102
2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016
2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146
2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069
2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174
2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155
2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209
2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199
2013 1 +0.497 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.034 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.068 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.334 +0.255 +0.219
2013 7 +0.174 +0.134 +0.215 +0.077

[The_Global_Warmer]

So far it's been slightly warm. 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global ssta came in slightly below last week around .2975C+. 

 

I would expect a warm August.  But you never know. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS is out for July.  For the year RSS is averaging .2443C+.  I have no idea where it ranks all time with RSS.  Can anyone fill that in?

2012   1   -0.06202012   2   -0.12392012   3    0.07072012   4    0.32962012   5    0.22952012   6    0.33552012   7    0.25702012   8    0.25362012   9    0.38222012  10    0.29342012  11    0.19422012  12    0.09982013   1    0.44092013   2    0.19422013   3    0.20472013   4    0.21872013   5    0.13862013   6    0.29112013   7    0.2218

Here we go again.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Don't believe the CPC subsurface data right now...its total garbage. It doesn't match the TAO/Triton SST data at all.

[tacoman25]

RSS is out for July.  For the year RSS is averaging .2443C+.  I have no idea where it ranks all time with RSS.  Can anyone fill that in?

2012   1   -0.06202012   2   -0.12392012   3    0.07072012   4    0.32962012   5    0.22952012   6    0.33552012   7    0.25702012   8    0.25362012   9    0.38222012  10    0.29342012  11    0.19422012  12    0.09982013   1    0.44092013   2    0.19422013   3    0.20472013   4    0.21872013   5    0.13862013   6    0.29112013   7    0.2218

 

Looks like it ranks #7 behind 2010, 2007, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 1998.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Don't believe the CPC subsurface data right now...its total garbage. It doesn't match the TAO/Triton SST data at all.

 

Do you mean this?

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like it ranks #7 behind 2010, 2007, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 1998.

 

 

thanks.  Can you link to the actual numbers or post them.  Thanks in advance.  I trust you.  I just want to see how far behind this year is vs those years.

[tacoman25]

Do you mean this?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

thanks.  Can you link to the actual numbers or post them.  Thanks in advance.  I trust you.  I just want to see how far behind this year is vs those years.

 

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

[The_Global_Warmer]

Some wild things taking place.  We have seen the monthly anomaly record for North Pacific SSTs broken.  The most glaring thing is the lack of a NINO driving it.  Like we see most of the largest spikes have come during warm ENSO.  Well really all of them have.  This is definitely anomalous in many ways.

 

 

Here is the link to the blog post the graphics are from.

 

 

 

Taking the tropical influence out.  Bob uses 24-65N.  He knows a lot about ENSO so I trust it's the proper latitude to use.  We can see in 2004 the previous record was set.  But it has been blown away.

 

 

2004 was also the previous record on the weeklies.  We can see the disparity is not as large as the monthlies.  So this is as much as about how high it is vs it's longevity.

 

 

 

SURGE IN NORTH PACIFIC ALSO APPEARS IN NOAA’s ERSST.v3b DATA

Figure 8 compares the sea surface temperature anomalies for the extratropical North Pacific using the NOAA’s Reynolds OI.v2 data and their ERSST.v3b reconstruction. The ERSST.v3b data is used in the NOAA/NCDC combined global land air plus surface temperature anomaly product. While the Reynolds OI.v2 data is more volatile (a function of the satellite data it also uses), the sudden surge in the extratropical Pacific sea surface temperatures also appears in the ERSST.v3b data, which is based only on measurements from ship inlets and buoys (fixed and floating).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where are we so far in August?

 

Day to day changes are hard to track.  But it looks like it's cooled off a bit from the peak. 

 

I think Bob for the most part is right.  I would not exclude global warming in the sense of increased forcing helping a little.  But weather is probably the 95%+ reason.  We saw a very cool June over the Continents.  While we saw large ridges sit over the N. Pacific and let the heat build during the solar max.

 

Now the patterns have shifted enough for August to start out above normal.  But Antarctica is also quite a bit warmer than it was in the first 2/3rds of July by a lot.  So is Eurasia.  NA and Africa are still pretty cool.  Assuming we get more cooler, cloudy, stormy weather over the North Pacific.  It will still take time to cool.  I guess this is what skier calls a heat belch. 

 

[Jonger]

 

 

 

I'm guessing that warm ocean anomaly was caused by lack of storms churning the sea up, I'm guessing its cooling down, but exhausting that heat into the atmosphere.

[tacoman25]

Some wild things taking place.  We have seen the monthly anomaly record for North Pacific SSTs broken.  The most glaring thing is the lack of a NINO driving it.  Like we see most of the largest spikes have come during warm ENSO.  Well really all of them have.  This is definitely anomalous in many ways.

 

 

Here is the link to the blog post the graphics are from.

 

 

 

Taking the tropical influence out.  Bob uses 24-65N.  He knows a lot about ENSO so I trust it's the proper latitude to use.  We can see in 2004 the previous record was set.  But it has been blown away.

 

 

 

2004 was also the previous record on the weeklies.  We can see the disparity is not as large as the monthlies.  So this is as much as about how high it is vs it's longevity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The interesting thing is that this North Pacific heat did not seem to translate to warmer global temps, as 2004 was a relatively cool year.

[bluewave]

Some wild things taking place.  We have seen the monthly anomaly record for North Pacific SSTs broken.  The most glaring thing is the lack of a NINO driving it.  Like we see most of the largest spikes have come during warm ENSO.  Well really all of them have.  This is definitely anomalous in many ways.

 

 

Here is the link to the blog post the graphics are from.

 

 

 

 

Taking the tropical influence out.  Bob uses 24-65N.  He knows a lot about ENSO so I trust it's the proper latitude to use.  We can see in 2004 the previous record was set.  But it has been blown away.

 

 

 

2004 was also the previous record on the weeklies.  We can see the disparity is not as large as the monthlies.  So this is as much as about how high it is vs it's longevity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where are we so far in August?

 

Day to day changes are hard to track.  But it looks like it's cooled off a bit from the peak. 

 

 

I think Bob for the most part is right.  I would not exclude global warming in the sense of increased forcing helping a little.  But weather is probably the 95%+ reason.  We saw a very cool June over the Continents.  While we saw large ridges sit over the N. Pacific and let the heat build during the solar max.

 

Now the patterns have shifted enough for August to start out above normal.  But Antarctica is also quite a bit warmer than it was in the first 2/3rds of July by a lot.  So is Eurasia.  NA and Africa are still pretty cool.  Assuming we get more cooler, cloudy, stormy weather over the North Pacific.  It will still take time to cool.  I guess this is what skier calls a heat belch. 

 

 

 

That's the result of the strong North Pacific blocking patten during June and July which also

lead to the record warmth over Alaska.

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK

409 PM AKDT TUE JUL 30 2013

...ANCHORAGE BREAKS RECORD FOR CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS...

AS OF 400 PM TODAY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST

OFFICE HAD REACHED 70 DEGREES. THIS MARKS THE 14TH STRAIGHT DAY OF A

HIGH TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES...BREAKING THE RECORD OF 13

DAYS LAST SET IN 2004.

...CONSECUTIVE 70 DEGREE DAYS...

NUMBER....YEAR....DATE BEGAN

14........2013....7/17/13

13........2004....8/2/04

13........1953....6/20/53

13........1936....7/17/36

12........2004....7/6/04

THERE HAVE BEEN 38 DAYS AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES IN ANCHORAGE THIS

YEAR. THIS KEEPS 2013 IN 4TH PLACE FOR THE NUMBER OF DAYS AT OR ABOVE

70 DEGREES.

...MOST 70 DEGREE DAYS IN A SEASON...

49........2004

43........1936

42........2005

38........2013

34........1977

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/archive.html?year=2013&month=06

 

 What is likely to have been the hottest day in Alaska for at least 44 years (since 1969) brought all-time record temperatures to a number of locations. These include:

96° at Talkeetna on June 17th (previous record 91°F on June 14, 1969 and June 26, 1953 as well as last Sunday, June 16)

94° at McGrath on June 17th (previous record 90° on June 15, 1969 as well as last Sunday June 16)

93° at Skwenta on June 17th (previous record 90° on July 21, 1947)

90° at Cordova on June 17th (previous record 89° on July 16, 1995)

90° at Valdez city site on June 17th (previous record 87° on June 25 and 26, 1953). Valdez has now had four consecutive record-breaking hot days (June 16-19).

88° at Seward on June 17th (previous record 87° on July 4, 1999)

88° at Unalakleet on June 17th (ties previous record set on July 21 and 22, 1977)

86° at Nome on June 19th. (June monthly record and ties all-time record of 86° on July 31, 1977 and July 9, 1968. Previous June record was 83° on three occasions, the latest being June 7, 2004)

85° at Kotzebue on June 19th (ties previous all-time record set on June 22, 1991 and July 5, 1958)

79° at Point Lay on June 19th (ties previous all-time record set on July 14, 2009). Point Lay is on the northern coast of Alaska next to the Arctic Ocean.

Bethel had its 2nd hottest day on record when it reached 88° on June 18th (all-time record is 90° set on June 17, 1926). There were quite a few locations of lesser importance that also broke their all-time heat records during this event. See reader comment #1 from Max for a list of some of these.

The 88° at Unalakleet is a truly amazing figure since Unalakleet is located on the coast of the Bering Sea (Norton Sound) south of Nome. The 79° at Point Lay is remarkable being on the Beaufort Sea (Arctic Ocean) coastline of far northern Alaska. This is one of the warmest temperatures ever measured on the Arctic coastline of Alaska. It is also astonishing how this heat wave has affected such a large portion of the state, with all-time records being broken from locations as diverse as Valdez and Fort Lay which are almost 1000 miles from one another.

Rick Thoman of NWS-Fairbanks notes that a couple of RAWS sites near Talkeetna reached 98° on Monday (June 17th) including Bentalit Lodge, and word has gone out to local COOP observers to check their equipment for any higher readings than the 96° officially measured at Talkeetna.

It is incredible how large the margin was between the record temperatures yesterday compared to the previous all-time records set at Talkeetna (by 5°) and McGrath (by 4°). The normal high for June 17th at Talkeetna should be just 64° and its previous daily record for June 17th was 85° in 1962.

The extraordinary heat was caused by a strong bubble of warm air associated with an upper-level high-pressure system that has become fixed over the state.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The interesting thing is that this North Pacific heat did not seem to translate to warmer global temps, as 2004 was a relatively cool year.

 

Antarctica.

 

 

Seriously.  Damn cold for months on end during it's winter that year.

[Snow_Miser]

[Jonger]

Are the weatherbell global CFS maps behind a paywall?

[LithiaWx]

Are the weatherbell global CFS maps behind a paywall?

Most are but the one in this thread is free

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.png

We continue to slowly warm .099

[Jonger]

Most of the coastal Antarctica is below normal, but the continent is way above. How is this even possible?

 

Vostok station is -34F right now, next week its supposed to cool down to the -80's. 

[skierinvermont]

Most of the coastal Antarctica is below normal, but the continent is way above. How is this even possible?

 

Vostok station is -34F right now, next week its supposed to cool down to the -80's. 

 

It just looks weird because it is displayed on a square map. On a map centered on the south pole, it would look like a small warm blob under a ridge centered on the continent. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

With essentially 1/3rd of August in the books.  CFS is running slightly above .10C.

 

If the month of August finished at .105C.  The formula that ORH and Skier came up with would yield about a .655C with a range of .60C to .70C on GISS.

 

The August monthly record anomaly on GISS is .68C achieved in 1998 and 2011.  Second is .65C in 2003 and 2006. Third is .58C in 2012.

 

 

SSTs look like they have cooled slightly.  But are still running really warm.

 

 

All of the ENSO regions are on the negative side of things.  Obviously ENSO 3 and 4 are much bigger than ENSO 1+2.  Even though ENSO 4 is only slightly negative.  ENSO 3 came in at -0.75C the last update.  Overall ENSO has been negative since January with it touching positive for a couple weeks at most in March.  Since then it's quickly gone more negative than it was in JFM. 

 

[skierinvermont]

Wow.. the spin from Spencer is just so obvious it's hard to believe anybody still thinks this guy is not a hack. He's switched his UAH charts to a 13-month running mean instead of the sinusoidal fit he used to show. Probably because it's becoming difficult to show a sinusoid with a decreasing finish. 

[PhillipS]

Wow.. the spin from Spencer is just so obvious it's hard to believe anybody still thinks this guy is not a hack. He's switched his UAH charts to a 13-month running mean instead of the sinusoidal fit he used to show. Probably because it's becoming difficult to show a sinusoid with a decreasing finish. 

 

He's always had the 13 month running mean - but you're right, he dropped the polynomial curve he claimed was "for amusement" when it clearly showed the continuing rise in global temps.  And he's made no secret of his perspective that he's doing God's work to spin global warming as nothing to worry about.

[nzucker]

Wow.. the spin from Spencer is just so obvious it's hard to believe anybody still thinks this guy is not a hack. He's switched his UAH charts to a 13-month running mean instead of the sinusoidal fit he used to show. Probably because it's becoming difficult to show a sinusoid with a decreasing finish. 

The 13 month running mean was always the main fixture of those charts. And I think if anything is obvious, it's that the satellites aren't showing very much warming. 2013 is going to be another year in the seemingly never-ending plateau, and it looks as if we're starting to drop off again...

[Jonger]

Doesn't look any different to me.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The 13 month running mean was always the main fixture of those charts. And I think if anything is obvious, it's that the satellites aren't showing very much warming. 2013 is going to be another year in the seemingly never-ending plateau, and it looks as if we're starting to drop off again...

 

 

2013 is the 4th warmest year on UAH records so far.

 

I am not sure what you mean by drop off.  CFS has steadily warmed since the end of last month. When UAH had a .17C+ month.  Currently CFS projects to a .66C(.61-.71) on GISS for August.  The largest August anomalies on GISS for August are .68 in 1998 and 2011.  Then .65 twice with .59 in 5th. 

 

I look forward to this drop-off when global ssts are running at NINO warmth without a NINO, well without a positive ENSO for 7-8 months running.

 

 

All this while ENSO has looked like this all year. 

 

[nzucker]

2013 is the 4th warmest year on UAH records so far.

 

I am not sure what you mean by drop off.  CFS has steadily warmed since the end of last month. When UAH had a .17C+ month.  Currently CFS projects to a .66C(.61-.71) on GISS for August.  The largest August anomalies on GISS for August are .68 in 1998 and 2011.  Then .65 twice with .59 in 5th. 

 

I look forward to this drop-off when global ssts are running at NINO warmth without a NINO, well without a positive ENSO for 7-8 months running.

 

 

All this while ENSO has looked like this all year. 

 

Global SSTs are going to come down eventually with the Nina-like set-up, it's just a matter of time. You can see cooling in the North PAC and Indian Ocean that should continue as time goes on. Also, I simply meant that UAH is running cooler now than earlier in the year when we had .4C anomalies, 

[nzucker]

He's always had the 13 month running mean - but you're right, he dropped the polynomial curve he claimed was "for amusement" when it clearly showed the continuing rise in global temps. And he's made no secret of his perspective that he's doing God's work to spin global warming as nothing to worry about.

It's too bad there's not more objectivity in the administration of the temperature data sets. With James Hansen running GISS and Spencer in charge of UAH, there is plenty of brilliant science but a lack of unbiased work.

[Jonger]

It's too bad there's not more objectivity in the administration of the temperature data sets. With James Hansen running GISS and Spencer in charge of UAH, there is plenty of brilliant science but a lack of unbiased work.

 

I wish UAH was the chosen dataset used by GISS, surface data can be tainted so easily.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow.. the spin from Spencer is just so obvious it's hard to believe anybody still thinks this guy is not a hack. He's switched his UAH charts to a 13-month running mean instead of the sinusoidal fit he used to show. Probably because it's becoming difficult to show a sinusoid with a decreasing finish. 

 

 

He always had the 13 month running mean line...though sometimes I recall him plotting the 25 month running average once in a while instead.

[Snow_Miser]

It's pretty obvious that this month will finish off warmer than July, at least with Surface Temperatures. The question is how much warmer? I don't think we continue to warm the monthly temperature that much. Right now we stand at a most likely GISS temperature of +0.66 for the month. I'll go a bit lower at +0.61 for the month. We'll see how that does.