2013 Global Temperatures

[Jonger]

Friv, skier, or anyone else,

 Any idea why the Nino OHC was revised downward so much (from +0.70 to ~+0.24) in early July? Also, June was revised downward quite a bit.

 

FOIA rumors?

[Jesse]

Thanks.  2012 had a relatively cool JUL at 51, then a 58 August.  Then railed off 68, 71, 68, before a December drop to 44.

 

We are slightly ahead of last year with SSTs.  However tropical is cooler.  Either way it's impossible to really predict at all.  Except the odds of a few really warm months is there when ocean surface heating gets up there. 

 

So assuming CFS is -.10C for July.  Then it would be .40 to .50C with .45C as the median.  The highest margin I think you said was .64C.  So we could match last year.  Unless GISS comes in really cool it doesn't matter for the end because GISS will have to be really really warm to crack the next level of years above it.

 

 

If I presumed the rest of this year is like 2012 we finish the year at 58.5(59).  So tied with a couple other years or like 7th on record.

 

 

If we go exactly the same but warm December up from 44 to 60 we finish at 59.8(60). 

 

 

This really lays out that this year will likely finish above 2012 but below all of the years above it.  Except the .59 years of 2006 and 2009 if we have a big warm stretch.

 

You seriously changed your name to the Global Warmer? Any uncertainty I had about whether or not you are rooting for AGW has dissipated.

 

I mean it's obvious from this post alone that it is VERY important to you that this year be warmer than last year. For all of the horrible things AGW will supposedly do to our environment you sure seem jazzed up about it!

[csnavywx]

You seriously changed your name to the Global Warmer? Any uncertainty I had about whether or not you are rooting for AGW has dissipated.

 

I mean it's obvious from this post alone that it is VERY important to you that this year be warmer than last year. For all of the horrible things AGW will supposedly do to our environment you sure seem jazzed up about it!

[The_Global_Warmer]

You seriously changed your name to the Global Warmer? Any uncertainty I had about whether or not you are rooting for AGW has dissipated.

 

I mean it's obvious from this post alone that it is VERY important to you that this year be warmer than last year. For all of the horrible things AGW will supposedly do to our environment you sure seem jazzed up about it!

 

 

 

It's just a joke.  Take a deep breath.  All will be well.  Look, I know you have never written a post here of substance, but when you are discussing and analyzing "reality" it might appear to be warm bias since you know 2013 is the 4th warmest year on record for UAH so far.  As if I have some hand in it.

 

It's probably a good time to tell you channel 6 temps just passed 2005 as the 2nd warmest on record for this date on AMSU.  Channel 7 is also the 2nd warmest on record.  Combine that will the very warm SSTs and yeah it's probably going to be pretty warm the 2nd half of the year.

 

Again, I am sorry but it's out of my hands.

 

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch06.r003.txt

 

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch07.r004.txt

[Snow_Miser]

It's just a joke. Take a deep breath. All will be well. Look, I know you have never written a post here of substance, but when you are discussing and analyzing "reality" it might appear to be warm bias since you know 2013 is the 4th warmest year on record for UAH so far. As if I have some hand in it.

It's probably a good time to tell you channel 6 temps just passed 2005 as the 2nd warmest on record for this date on AMSU. Channel 7 is also the 2nd warmest on record. Combine that will the very warm SSTs and yeah it's probably going to be pretty warm the 2nd half of the year.

Again, I am sorry but it's out of my hands.

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch06.r003.txt

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch07.r004.txt

Are the AMSU temps working again? I got the impression that the site was no longer as accurate as it once was.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Are the AMSU temps working again? I got the impression that the site was no longer as accurate as it once was.

 

Channel 5 is out. But they still use the channels that are operational.  Of course for the TLTs channel 7 probably has no influence and channel 6 is limited.  But they can give us some idea of whats going on. 

[skierinvermont]

Friv, skier, or anyone else,

 Any idea why the Nino OHC was revised downward so much (from +0.70 to ~+0.24) in early July? Also, June was revised downward quite a bit.

 By the way, the lack of a Nino would jibe quite well with the persistent solidly +SOI's so far this summer.

 

Not sure at all either but would definitely like to know though.

[ORH_wxman]

Not sure at all either but would definitely like to know though.

 

 

It didn't match the TAO/Triton SST data at all almost the whole time...though the Triton data did show a spike late recently, but its nothing like the CPC in location.

 

I have noticed the CPC data can be weird, but this is largest revision I've ever seen. It could have been bad data from one buoy.

[LakeEffectKing]

_{HadCrut 4 remarkably flat for first 6 months of 2013}

 

_{2013/01    0.450    0.406    0.498    0.416    0.484    0.296    0.604    0.395    0.510    0.286    0.616
2013/02    0.479    0.425    0.526    0.444    0.514    0.334    0.623    0.415    0.537    0.319    0.633
2013/03    0.405    0.359    0.445    0.364    0.445    0.257    0.552    0.338    0.464    0.242    0.563
2013/04    0.427    0.381    0.469    0.394    0.460    0.284    0.569    0.364    0.481    0.271    0.580
2013/05    0.497    0.451    0.544    0.464    0.531    0.339    0.656    0.441    0.552    0.329    0.665
2013/06    0.452    0.409    0.500    0.413    0.490    0.310    0.593    0.395    0.513    0.300    0.607}
 

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like the warm up was somewhat temporary. We may be starting August a bit cooler than previously thought.

 

[nflwxman]

Looks like the warm up was somewhat temporary. We may be starting August a bit cooler than previously thought.

 

 

 

I think that will shoot back up if the GFS global temperature forecast is correct on wxbell.

[ORH_wxman]

_{HadCrut 4 remarkably flat for first 6 months of 2013}

 

_{2013/01    0.450    0.406    0.498    0.416    0.484    0.296    0.604    0.395    0.510    0.286    0.616}

2013/02    0.479    0.425    0.526    0.444    0.514    0.334    0.623    0.415    0.537    0.319    0.633

2013/03    0.405    0.359    0.445    0.364    0.445    0.257    0.552    0.338    0.464    0.242    0.563

2013/04    0.427    0.381    0.469    0.394    0.460    0.284    0.569    0.364    0.481    0.271    0.580

2013/05    0.497    0.451    0.544    0.464    0.531    0.339    0.656    0.441    0.552    0.329    0.665

2013/06    0.452    0.409    0.500    0.413    0.490    0.310    0.593    0.395    0.513    0.300    0.607

 

 

 

That's a pretty big disconnect with GISS for June. This gives me further confidence that GISS will likely be revised downward several hundreths for June in future updates.

[tacoman25]

I said it when the predictions came out last month, but I just didn't understand predictions of a record or near-record warm July when ENSO had not even reached official Nino status.

[Snow_Miser]

I said it when the predictions came out last month, but I just didn't understand predictions of a record or near-record warm July when ENSO had not even reached official Nino status.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure why some went incredibly warm. There were really no indicators of such massive warmth.

[nflwxman]

Sea surface temperatures are quite high (in Nino territory).  So predictions were not completely unfounded.  However, SSTs just rose very high the last month or so, and there is usually a lag.  August and/or Sept could be very warm as a result.

[skierinvermont]

I said it when the predictions came out last month, but I just didn't understand predictions of a record or near-record warm July when ENSO had not even reached official Nino status.

 

The ENSO OHC rise in May June July 2012 led 2012 led to very warm temperatures in August-November. We were following a nearly identical trajectory this year, and starting from a warmer starting point. 

 

It's easy to see in retrospect since ENSO OHC was revised down nearly .6. But a month ago, we were in the middle of an OHC spike identical to last June, and already sitting at .67C on GISS. Given the build up of OHC in June (according to the bad data) it wasn't unreasonable to think that GISS would hold steady at .67C, which is what I guessed.

 

On the one hand the .67C in June was probably due to some random short term variability, but on the other, if the ENSO OHC data was to be believed, we would be adding ENSO heat to the system. It appeared that a large warm pool of subsurface water was surfacing in July. This water turned out to be barely above average. 

 

Part of the issue is you are focusing on SSTs which are largely a product of the SOI. I think if you look at ENSO OHC you would find a better correlation to global temperature. Sometimes we get OHC spikes even when the SOI is positive or neutral and SSTs are neutral.

 

It has happened every year for the last 3 years actually.

 

In 2011 we had an OHC spike in MAM, leading to high temps JJASO. July 2011 was the warmest on record, and August 2011 was the warmest August on record, despite an ONI of -.4. That's right, the warmest July and the warmest August ever were in a borderline La Nina, because there was a large OHC warm bubble that was dissipating and being chewed up by the +SOI. 

 

In 2012 we had an OHC spike MJJA leading to high temps ASON. It was the 2nd warmest SON period on record, despite a neutral ONI.

 

In 2013 we have an OHC spike (which initially looked to be much stronger) in June July.. will ASO be warm? Probably. 

 

 

Conclusion: You can get record high temperatures in neutral or even borderline La Ninas, when warm OHC pools surface during +SOIs. Remember, the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of the oceans .07C can raise the temperature of the entire atmosphere 36C. 

[tacoman25]

The ENSO OHC rise in May June July 2012 led 2012 led to very warm temperatures in August-November. We were following a nearly identical trajectory this year, and starting from a warmer starting point. 

 

It's easy to see in retrospect since ENSO OHC was revised down nearly .6. But a month ago, we were in the middle of an OHC spike identical to last June, and already sitting at .67C on GISS. Given the build up of OHC in June (according to the bad data) it wasn't unreasonable to think that GISS would hold steady at .67C, which is what I guessed.

 

On the one hand the .67C in June was probably due to some random short term variability, but on the other, if the ENSO OHC data was to be believed, we would be adding ENSO heat to the system. It appeared that a large warm pool of subsurface water was surfacing in July. This water turned out to be barely above average. 

 

I just haven't seen a reliable correlation between that monthly OHC data and the following month's global temperatures.

 

Looking at it another way, if July had managed a .67 anomaly like June on GISS, it would have made 2013 the second warmest June/July on record for GISS, behind only 1998. And it wouldn't have really been close to any other year. Would have seemed pretty outlier-ish, given ENSO state. Of course, given recent trends, there is a good chance June will be revised down a bit anyway.

[skierinvermont]

I just haven't seen a reliable correlation between that monthly OHC data and the following month's global temperatures.

 

Looking at it another way, if July had managed a .67 anomaly like June on GISS, it would have made 2013 the second warmest June/July on record for GISS, behind only 1998. And it wouldn't have really been close to any other year. Would have seemed pretty outlier-ish, given ENSO state. Of course, given recent trends, there is a good chance June will be revised down a bit anyway.

 

 

Except, as I pointed out in my edit above, 2011 and 2012 both achieved record warm temperatures despite La Nina and near La Nina conditions throughout 2011, and neutral conditions in 2012. This was due to brief spikes in OHC which surfaced and released tremendous amounts of heat but did not raise SSTs due to strong trade winds. 

 

The correlation is quite strong. There was much discussion on this forum, which I assume you were a part of, in 2011 about how the hell global T got so high despite La Nina conditions. It was generally agreed that it was due to a spike in OHC in ENSO that was not being reflected in the ONI. I'm assuming you were one of those who agreed with the reasoning. 

 

I'm just going to repost the key part of my previous post:

 

 

In 2011 we had an OHC spike in MAM, leading to high temps JJASO. July 2011 was the warmest on record, and August 2011 was the warmest August on record, despite an ONI of -.4. That's right, the warmest July and the warmest August ever were both in a borderline La Nina, because there was a large OHC warm bubble that was dissipating and being chewed up by the +SOI. 

 

In 2012 we had an OHC spike MJJA leading to high temps ASON. It was the 2nd warmest SON period on record, despite a neutral ONI.

 

In 2013 we have an OHC spike (which initially looked to be much stronger) in May June July.. will ASO be warm? Probably. 

 

 

Conclusion: You can get record high temperatures in neutral or even borderline La Ninas, when warm OHC pools surface during +SOIs. Remember, the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of the oceans .07C can raise the temperature of the entire atmosphere 36C. 

[tacoman25]

 

Except, as I pointed out in my edit above, 2011 and 2012 both achieved record warm temperatures despite La Nina and near La Nina conditions throughout 2011, and neutral conditions in 2012. This was due to brief spikes in OHC which surfaced and released tremendous amounts of heat but did not raise SSTs due to strong trade winds. 

 

The correlation is quite strong. There was much discussion on this forum, which I assume you were a part of, in 2011 about how the hell global T got so high despite La Nina conditions. It was generally agreed that it was due to a spike in OHC in ENSO that was not being reflected in the ONI. I'm assuming you were one of those who agreed with the reasoning. 

 

I'm just going to repost the key part of my previous post:

 

 

In 2011 we had an OHC spike in MAM, leading to high temps JJASO. July 2011 was the warmest on record, and August 2011 was the warmest August on record, despite an ONI of -.4. That's right, the warmest July and the warmest August ever were both in a borderline La Nina, because there was a large OHC warm bubble that was dissipating and being chewed up by the +SOI. 

 

In 2012 we had an OHC spike MJJA leading to high temps ASON. It was the 2nd warmest SON period on record, despite a neutral ONI.

 

In 2013 we have an OHC spike (which initially looked to be much stronger) in May June July.. will ASO be warm? Probably. 

 

 

Conclusion: You can get record high temperatures in neutral or even borderline La Ninas, when warm OHC pools surface during +SOIs. Remember, the amount of heat needed to raise the temperature of the oceans .07C can raise the temperature of the entire atmosphere 36C. 

 

 

Hindsight is clearly better than foresight with this data, however, as this month's temperatures have shown. I don't believe that a couple of examples from recent years, in hindsight, proves that using current OHC anomalies can effectively predict following months surface anomalies.

 

Wouldn't the TLT sources like UAH/RSS correlate better anyway to OHC pools surfacing, at least on a following month basis? All that heat surely escapes into the lower troposphere, which would seem to be a better proxy for that occurrence than land surface data.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Hindsight is clearly better than foresight with this data, however, as this month's temperatures have shown. I don't believe that a couple of examples from recent years, in hindsight, proves that using current OHC anomalies can effectively predict following months surface anomalies.

 

Wouldn't the TLT sources like UAH/RSS correlate better anyway to OHC pools surfacing, at least on a following month basis? All that heat surely escapes into the lower troposphere, which would seem to be a better proxy for that occurrence than land surface data.

 

Considering the data was revised downward big time.  We can't use this month. 

 

 

[skierinvermont]

Hindsight is clearly better than foresight with this data, however, as this month's temperatures have shown. I don't believe that a couple of examples from recent years, in hindsight, proves that using current OHC anomalies can effectively predict following months surface anomalies.

 

Wouldn't the TLT sources like UAH/RSS correlate better anyway to OHC pools surfacing, at least on a following month basis? All that heat surely escapes into the lower troposphere, which would seem to be a better proxy for that occurrence than land surface data.

 

 

July and August were also the two warmest months of 2011 on UAH.

 

SON were also the three warmest months of 2012 on UAH.

 

ENSO OHC warm pools surfacing appears to cause warming simultaneous warming at both the surface and TLT. This is unusual given warming is usually delayed on TLT. I think the lag between surface and TLT has something to do with cloud physics over the course of an ENSO event. However, OHC warm pools surfacing is not actually an ENSO event. It's really just a big belch of heat being released to the atmosphere and so it makes sense for warming to occur at both surface and TLT. 

 

Not only do we have two perfect examples of warming following heat belches, but there is an obvious causative mechanism. When a large volume of +1-2C water surfaces, that is enough heat to cause a large amount of atmosphere warming. Even without empirical examples, the physics of this is so obvious and simple I would be confident that heat belches cause atmospheric warming even without empirical examples. At this point you are just being stubborn.

 

I don't remember you arguing that the warmth of July and August 2011 was not related to the ENSO OHC heat belch. In fact, I would bet anything you agreed with the theory.

[nzucker]

Wouldn't the TLT sources like UAH/RSS correlate better anyway to OHC pools surfacing, at least on a following month basis? All that heat surely escapes into the lower troposphere, which would seem to be a better proxy for that occurrence than land surface data.

I think June did come in pretty warm on the satellites, around a .3C anomaly, correlating with increased OHC.

July probably won't be as warm on the satellites given the CFS/Weatherbell data, but that's mostly due to the cold continents (specifically Antarctica) and not SSTs/OHC which are very warm right now probably because of the North Pacific warm pool.

[tacoman25]

July and August were also the two warmest months of 2011 on UAH.

 

SON were also the three warmest months of 2012 on UAH.

 

ENSO OHC warm pools surfacing appears to cause warming simultaneous warming at both the surface and TLT. This is unusual given warming is usually delayed on TLT. I think the lag between surface and TLT has something to do with cloud physics over the course of an ENSO event. However, OHC warm pools surfacing is not actually an ENSO event. It's really just a big belch of heat being released to the atmosphere and so it makes sense for warming to occur at both surface and TLT. 

 

Not only do we have two perfect examples of warming following heat belches, but there is an obvious causative mechanism. When a large volume of +1-2C water surfaces, that is enough heat to cause a large amount of atmosphere warming. Even without empirical examples, the physics of this is so obvious and simple I would be confident that heat belches cause atmospheric warming even without empirical examples. At this point you are just being stubborn.

 

I don't remember you arguing that the warmth of July and August 2011 was not related to the ENSO OHC heat belch. In fact, I would bet anything you agreed with the theory.

 

I don't believe I was active on here summer of 2011.

 

And you're missing the point. I'm saying I'm not convinced that the current OHC data can be used to accurately predict the following month's surface anomalies. It makes more sense to me that this OHC data would translate somewhat to following LT anomalies. But if the initialized data is unreliable anyway, that messes everything up.

[skierinvermont]

I don't believe I was active on here summer of 2011.

 

And you're missing the point. I'm saying I'm not convinced that the current OHC data can be used to accurately predict the following month's surface anomalies. It makes more sense to me that this OHC data would translate somewhat to following LT anomalies. But if the initialized data is unreliable anyway, that messes everything up.

 

Well it does predict it very well and for very good causative reasons so you are wrong.

[tacoman25]

Well it does predict it very well and for very good causative reasons so you are wrong.

 

Evidence? You have used hindsight data analysis for a couple of examples. It obviously didn't work very well in real time this month.

 

Predicting monthly anomalies in general is tenuous at best. No need to get all defensive because you were way too warm this month, happens to the best.

[skierinvermont]

Evidence? You have used hindsight data analysis for a couple of examples. It obviously didn't work very well in real time this month.

 

Predicting monthly anomalies in general is tenuous at best. No need to get all defensive because you were way too warm this month, happens to the best.

 

 I was wrong this month because the data was wrong. If OHC had indeed spiked to .8, as it did in 2011 and 2012, I have no doubt that we would see comparable warming as that heat belched into the atmosphere. Instead, the water that is surfacing in the ENSO regions is barely above average.

 

EDIT: I had written a long post detailing many previous events as well but I accidentally lost it. The results were dramatic. There is always major warming following belch events, regardless of the ONI. I was actually pretty surprised. For example the .93 in January 2007 (warmest January ever) was following a major belch event. 

[tacoman25]

 I was wrong this month because the data was wrong. If OHC had indeed spiked to .8, as it did in 2011 and 2012, I have no doubt that we would see comparable warming as that heat belched into the atmosphere. Instead, the water that is surfacing in the ENSO regions is barely above average.

 

EDIT: I had written a long post detailing many previous events as well but I accidentally lost it. The results were dramatic. There is always major warming following belch events, regardless of the ONI. I was actually pretty surprised. For example the .93 in January 2007 (warmest January ever) was following a major belch event. 

 

Right, this is my point. How often if the preliminary data one would use to make future forecasts wrong? It's easy to go back and look at correct data and see correlations, but that doesn't mean we can take current data and apply it the same to the future, if it can be wrong that easily.

[skierinvermont]

Right, this is my point. How often if the preliminary data one would use to make future forecasts wrong? It's easy to go back and look at correct data and see correlations, but that doesn't mean we can take current data and apply it the same to the future, if it can be wrong that easily.

 

Well as ORH said, it's the largest revision he's ever seen and it's the largest I remember as well. Something was just messed up the last few months. 

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like the CFS will finish with a -0.1 Degree C anomaly. That would give a most likely range of 0.4-0.5 Degrees C on GISS.

[skierinvermont]

daily is going back up again