2013 Global Temperatures

[nzucker]

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut3vgl/last:120/offset:-0.146/plot/uah/last:120/plot/rss/last:120/plot/gistemp/last:120/offset:-0.238

 

This makes the non-warming trend painfully clear to believers. The largest peak in temperatures was right at the beginning of the period in 06-07 and again in 09-10. We've been relatively cool globally in the last few years and look to stay that way with -PDO/-ENSO ruling the roost. 

[LakeEffectKing]

This makes the non-warming trend painfully clear to believers. The largest peak in temperatures was right at the beginning of the period in 06-07 and again in 09-10. We've been relatively cool globally in the last few years and look to stay that way with -PDO/-ENSO ruling the roost. 

 

What becomes more problematic with the hypothesis is that over the last decade, we have seen the CO2 RATES of increase at their highest levels, which SHOULD have made CO2 an even more difficult factor to overcome:

 

 

I'll wait a few more years before I question whether the original AGW hypothesis is questionable.  But I have a hard time understanding why (according to the hypothesis) CO2 was purportedly the smooth driver of temperatures the previous 8 decades, and then, (when the forcing should have been the greatest) temps have flattened out.....(the missing heat of Trenberth)

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is what I just mentioned, and you seemed not to agree. While a Kelvin Wave approaching from the west may temporarily halt the cooling, we're plunging rapidly towards Niña conditions with 3/4 ENSO regions below normal in the weeklies. There's also cooling in the South Pacific and parts of the North Atlantic, so it's no surprise global SSTs continue to fall. I think it'll be hard to register a top 5 warm year with the SST/ENSO picture the way it is today.

 

 

I agree with the mechanics and physical stuff attm and in the near future.  I have no way to predict ENSO trends without computures and more so the expertise of pro and armature folks such as yourself in the ENSO thread.

 

 

My reasoning for around a top 5 warmest year like 4th-6th.  Cracking 1-3rd(2010, 2005, 1998) will be hard with any NINA conditions.  I think we can all agree we do not need a 1998 Nino because things have warmed overall. OHC is a or near record levels.  SST's oscillate from normal, sometimes even below during strong NINA's but they stay at a higher level normally vs 1998 and before.  That makes it easier.  Reduced Albedo in the N.H does this. 

 

Right now unfortunately the Oceans cool and warm to slow to be effected to much by the current big time snow cover.  but there may be some residual N.H. Sea Skin Temperature effects or very near surface over largers area's of more near the shoreline but still with the airmass's cooled further South more chances for like the Mediterranean, N, NW, NC, WC, NE, EC Pacific and not as much in the Atlantic where the Ocean heat get's big time protection, mostly from the Gulf Stream and the pattern hasn't been tough on the Atlantic as much as the Pacific as we go North.

 

Either way the Ocean's are not as cool as the land is because of the enhanced albedo, even if it's not much it still causes the soil and other objects over millions of Km2 to not retain as much heat as they would have.  This slowly cooling airmasses.  We recently probably saw some low level albedo cooling over the CONUS.  A Downslopping warm up was very very muted because so much snow cover.  More heat is radiated away and you could see models struggle with blossoming those 850s and would keep muting them as time went on with really no other reason but the snow cover kept things colder, as climo bias's go down and pattern bias's go down, the closer it got the 0c+ region shrunk, the warmest regions like 4-6 or 6-8, even 8-10C 850s on a few runs in SW Canada.  Then those dissipated, in the end the Oc region ended up a bit larger but overall the warm pool that formed off the winds East off the Rockies vanished as it passes over the Ohio Valley, eventually evaporational cooling helped obliterate it. 

 

I mean right now is a great showing of how this helps cool and slightly lower global temps.

 

Nam 2 day forecast 2m temps:  Wins are more SE over some of the snow pack.  But further West they veer more Southerly, on top of that the air-mass(yes this is at peak heating) is pretty warm that is drawn from. 

 

 

But we can see the wide area of modeled low 30s, basically similar to the arctic ice sheet in summer, temps get stuck around or slightly above freezing with mid levels in many cases much warmer over thousands of feet.  While the surface up starts cooling it

 

The next day we see the WAA get deeper and Stronger and really shove the warmth North over the melting snow pack that loses it's albedo and that causes the snow itself to taken and radiate more heat off and make melting faster obviously.  On top of that in a very odd turn of events.  Melting South or down wind of the place more North has it's snow pack melted and evaporation max's out and we end up a boot-left positive snow albedo feedback from it helping ramp up low level or surface moisture while that is carried North.  Obviously not some insane feedback but help's melt more snow.

 

 

The point of this tangent is the Snow Cover is not as big of an effect on global temps mostly because of Ocean's when we see how it does effect mid-latitude temps in winter big time and more so upper lat's in Spring, Summer, and Fall.  And mid-lats in parts of Fall and Spring. 

 

But I also wanted to show how it can mute warm up's big time.  Some of those places under these conditions would be 10-20F warmer if they didn't have snow pack of snow pack and snow pack within 50-100 Miles helping cool the surface temps so are not as over-whelmed by the WAA scheme.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I expect SST's to drop atleast down to 0.1C if we continue to see the ENSO cooling we have.  If we even stay as we are on the day to day maps.

 

 

Typically with the level of ENSO cooling we would have seen a faster reaction than we have seen on the weeklies in terms of cooling but temps have stayed up because parts of the SH have been warmer than in recent years and the N. Atlantic has been very warm, big help from the NE CONUS sea board on up North and East.

 

 

We can see the cooler ENSO's effect. but look at SE of South America.  Then there is the West N. Pacific and East side too with the cool North there as well.  The N. Atlantic is warm almost everywhere or normal.  The Indian Ocean recently was warmer than this and has had a cold pool form, I'm guessing from clouds.  Anyways the SOO which now has -2 to -3C ssts just back in the late Summer and more so or so Fall had +5 to upwards of +14C SST anomaly's by Spring at some point the SOO, Baffin, N. Atlantic, eventually Hudson Bay, WC and NW Atlantic, Mediterranean, and eventually the arctic have shown they are warming to near record or record warmth.  This helps carry the global regime a lot in NH Summers which have been warmer with no way to cool off from the surrounding environments.

 

 

 

 

The weekly's for -90 to -60S below.  have shown them sky rocket up in warmth since Late Oct-Late November bottom out.  Now they have jumped roughly 0.28C on the weekly's helping aid the recent warm-up globally.  Now the thing I am banking on, is even if this is just like 2010 and they fall back quick, they will help the SH be warmer and obviously be warmer than if they were -.25 or colder.  THis is a bonus in my warm side of my pro's and con's.  Like the recent ENSO cooling has been. 

 

 

All in all December UAH got 0.20C.  There is no way it's going to drop anywhere near the -0.125 and -0.13C it did last year with global SST's being .20C+ or more warmer.  Even if 2011 global sst's and 2012 meet at the same point come March or April, 2012 will have helped pull the winter months much higher.

 

 

2011 and 2012 and many years before without full NINO's or even moderate or strong NINO's that we don't need that for NH Oceans(shallow) and Land to warm up more than they probably should.  Many of us think this is from Radiative Forcing making an appearance using the vast land, early snow cover loss to heat up the land and shallow ocean regions by the arctic ice area, allowing very warm air masses that might of reached the arctic by August is doing it in June.  Clearly we can see the May and June upper latitude explosion of warmth. 

 

We have seen it takes a 2008 like NINA to get us down there and NINA year's have continued to be warmer than the last, inching up to what used to be Neutral territory.

 

So I expect UAH to be warmer like .25C this year barring a big time NINA because Jan-March will be far Warmer on all global data sets.

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS global monthly.  Much warmer than UAH without the poles.

 

2012   1   -0.06052012   2   -0.12322012   3    0.07112012   4    0.33022012   5    0.23092012   6    0.33712012   7    0.29002012   8    0.25452012   9    0.38272012  10    0.29402012  11    0.19512012  12    0.1008

[The_Global_Warmer]

What becomes more problematic with the hypothesis is that over the last decade, we have seen the CO2 RATES of increase at their highest levels, which SHOULD have made CO2 an even more difficult factor to overcome:

 

 

 

I'll wait a few more years before I question whether the original AGW hypothesis is questionable.  But I have a hard time understanding why (according to the hypothesis) CO2 was purportedly the smooth driver of temperatures the previous 8 decades, and then, (when the forcing should have been the greatest) temps have flattened out.....(the missing heat of Trenberth)

 

There really hasn't been much smooth the past 8 decades or even longer really.

 

 

The circle at the end is roughly 2012.  We know it's gonna finish .53-.55 pending December, more likely .53-.54.  We can there has been a steadying off.  Now we know the lack of real NINO's whatever so ever have helped cool things off but they woulldn't ensure any sort of large jump.

 

But since the late 90s early 2000s the solar scene has radically changed.  Even if that only account for .08 to .12 globally.  That would put 2011 and 2012 near record or above records, a NINO would throw us a .7 to .8C anomaly if we added that much for the massive solar crash. 

 

We have also pumped up the Aeresol train quite a bit the last decade.  It's not dropped down to early industry levels at all, so it's a bigger player than we likely thought.

 

We also have seen a predominant -PDO.  that has surely helped as well.  But a few reasons this is only temporarily.

 

We haven't cooled at all.  2012, 2011, and 2008 are the coolest years of the century, all getting warmer, all classified as NINA.  1998, 2005, 2010 all the warmest, all NINO and all show a slower warmer but both show slower warming. 

 

Ice loss(land ice, NH Sea Ice, snow cover) have continued to pick up loses faster and faster.  Wide scale never before seen climate changes all happening to the three of them.  this can be highly altered by pattern.  But accumulated OHC from increased radiative forcing has forced the global baseline quite a bit higher than 15-20 years ago and obviously time before that.  This also show's a slow down, but again, absolutely no sign of cooling, very little difference between peak and low. 

 

 

Maybe will under-estimate the negative feedback's when it comes to OHC gain and surface temps.  But we have also crapped the bed in measuring the near complete destruction of MYI, keeping up with the ice loss and albedo change, totally underestimated Greenland's changes.

 

So there is clear something there causing the Earth to not cool and gain heat year after year.  It's not the Sun, the sun switched teams.  At this point, we really have nothing viable outside of GHG's to cause this kind of change on Earth. 

 

 

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

RSS global monthly.  Much warmer than UAH without the poles.

 

2012   1   -0.06052012   2   -0.12322012   3    0.07112012   4    0.33022012   5    0.23092012   6    0.33712012   7    0.29002012   8    0.25452012   9    0.38272012  10    0.29402012  11    0.19512012  12    0.1008

 

 

 

RSS is really only missing the south polar region...it goes to 82.5N in the northern hemisphere.

[The_Global_Warmer]

RSS is really only missing the south polar region...it goes to 82.5N in the northern hemisphere.

 

UAH SO EXT(60-85S) Land: 0.41 Ocean: 1.27 SO Pole: 1.58

 

Not the effect's but UAH was pretty warm on both poles.

[ORH_wxman]

UAH SO EXT(60-85S) Land: 0.41 Ocean: 1.27 SO Pole: 1.58

 

Not the effect's but UAH was pretty warm on both poles.

 

 

 

Yeah the south polar region has warmed in the past several months...that is where most of the difference would be. Back when the south polar regions were pretty cold early in 2012, UAH was running just as cold if not colder than RSS which makes sense since RSS is missing a chunk of the south polar region. Now that the south is warmer, RSS should be running colder again.

 

The difference between RSS and UAH in the north polar regions is pretty small. The area between 82.5N and 88N is a pretty small percent of the whole arctic.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah the south polar region has warmed in the past several months...that is where most of the difference would be. Back when the south polar regions were pretty cold early in 2012, UAH was running just as cold if not colder than RSS which makes sense since RSS is missing a chunk of the south polar region. Now that the south is warmer, RSS should be running colder again.

 

The difference between RSS and UAH in the north polar regions is pretty small. The area between 82.5N and 88N is a pretty small percent of the whole arctic.

 

 

 

You're right about that.

 

 

Any specific large scale mechanism for the abrupt up and down change down South or just pattern and timing?

[ORH_wxman]

You're right about that.

 

 

Any specific large scale mechanism for the abrupt up and down change down South or just pattern and timing?

 

 

There is an ENSO residual down south. Its not as obvious as some other parts of the globe, but its definitely there looking at the data. Probably that combined with some other nuances down there. That region seems to be one of the least understood for what drives temperature.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Still to early to say but it looks like January will see a slight rebound in global temps.

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

HadCrut:

 

2011/12  0.249  0.268  0.229  0.381  0.116  0.249  0.242  0.382  0.115  0.382  0.115
2012/01  0.206  0.226  0.186  0.362  0.050  0.206  0.199  0.364  0.048  0.364  0.048
2012/02  0.186  0.206  0.166  0.331  0.041  0.186  0.179  0.333  0.039  0.333  0.039
2012/03  0.290  0.311  0.270  0.438  0.143  0.290  0.283  0.440  0.141  0.440  0.141
2012/04  0.499  0.517  0.481  0.643  0.355  0.499  0.491  0.644  0.354  0.644  0.353
2012/05  0.483  0.501  0.464  0.648  0.318  0.483  0.475  0.649  0.317  0.649  0.316
2012/06  0.482  0.500  0.465  0.625  0.339  0.482  0.475  0.626  0.338  0.626  0.338
2012/07  0.445  0.462  0.428  0.630  0.260  0.445  0.438  0.631  0.259  0.631  0.259
2012/08  0.513  0.531  0.496  0.738  0.289  0.513  0.506  0.739  0.288  0.739  0.288
2012/09  0.514  0.532  0.497  0.702  0.327  0.514  0.507  0.702  0.327  0.702  0.327
2012/10  0.499  0.517  0.482  0.647  0.352  0.499  0.492  0.648  0.351  0.648  0.351
2012/11  0.482  0.501  0.462  0.601  0.362  0.482  0.474  0.603  0.360  0.603  0.360
2012/12  0.233  0.254  0.211  0.370  0.095  0.233  0.226  0.372  0.094  0.372  0.094
 

[Snow_Miser]

HadCrut:

 

2011/12  0.249  0.268  0.229  0.381  0.116  0.249  0.242  0.382  0.115  0.382  0.115

2012/01  0.206  0.226  0.186  0.362  0.050  0.206  0.199  0.364  0.048  0.364  0.048

2012/02  0.186  0.206  0.166  0.331  0.041  0.186  0.179  0.333  0.039  0.333  0.039

2012/03  0.290  0.311  0.270  0.438  0.143  0.290  0.283  0.440  0.141  0.440  0.141

2012/04  0.499  0.517  0.481  0.643  0.355  0.499  0.491  0.644  0.354  0.644  0.353

2012/05  0.483  0.501  0.464  0.648  0.318  0.483  0.475  0.649  0.317  0.649  0.316

2012/06  0.482  0.500  0.465  0.625  0.339  0.482  0.475  0.626  0.338  0.626  0.338

2012/07  0.445  0.462  0.428  0.630  0.260  0.445  0.438  0.631  0.259  0.631  0.259

2012/08  0.513  0.531  0.496  0.738  0.289  0.513  0.506  0.739  0.288  0.739  0.288

2012/09  0.514  0.532  0.497  0.702  0.327  0.514  0.507  0.702  0.327  0.702  0.327

2012/10  0.499  0.517  0.482  0.647  0.352  0.499  0.492  0.648  0.351  0.648  0.351

2012/11  0.482  0.501  0.462  0.601  0.362  0.482  0.474  0.603  0.360  0.603  0.360

2012/12  0.233  0.254  0.211  0.370  0.095  0.233  0.226  0.372  0.094  0.372  0.094

 

 

Pretty chilly anomaly. Wasn't expecting it to be that cold. It seems like this is HadCruT3 though, if I'm not mistaken. The HadCruT4 values are slightly warmer than this, but a massive drop from November.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.1.1.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

 

2011/12    0.368    0.328    0.414    0.332    0.404    0.253    0.484    0.310    0.429    0.239    0.499

2012/01    0.288    0.244    0.338    0.243    0.333    0.141    0.435    0.229    0.357    0.131    0.452

2012/02    0.208    0.163    0.259    0.156    0.261    0.063    0.353    0.140    0.282    0.048    0.372

2012/03    0.339    0.298    0.384    0.295    0.383    0.192    0.486    0.273    0.403    0.177    0.499

2012/04    0.525    0.486    0.571    0.473    0.578    0.382    0.669    0.456    0.596    0.367    0.687

2012/05    0.531    0.485    0.571    0.474    0.587    0.366    0.695    0.459    0.601    0.350    0.709

2012/06    0.506    0.466    0.553    0.454    0.558    0.364    0.647    0.441    0.577    0.351    0.665

2012/07    0.470    0.428    0.510    0.434    0.506    0.283    0.657    0.414    0.525    0.274    0.666

2012/08    0.532    0.483    0.573    0.494    0.570    0.306    0.758    0.472    0.590    0.299    0.766

2012/09    0.515    0.481    0.556    0.475    0.556    0.325    0.706    0.459    0.576    0.318    0.717

2012/10    0.527    0.486    0.568    0.491    0.563    0.379    0.674    0.471    0.586    0.370    0.687

2012/11    0.518    0.482    0.561    0.481    0.555    0.397    0.639    0.465    0.578    0.387    0.655

2012/12    0.269    0.221    0.312    0.234    0.303    0.131    0.406    0.209    0.325    0.119    0.418

 

Second coolest December since 1996.

[skierinvermont]

This makes the non-warming trend painfully clear to believers. The largest peak in temperatures was right at the beginning of the period in 06-07 and again in 09-10. We've been relatively cool globally in the last few years and look to stay that way with -PDO/-ENSO ruling the roost. 

 

Short period, with massive -ENSO trend. Cherry-picked starting point in multi-year Nino 02-05, ending in multi-year Nina. Go back to 2000, or earlier, and the warming is obvious. Also he used Had3 even though Had4 is available on WFT. As my other thread shows warming has taken place across the last 10+ years when ENSO is removed.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This makes the non-warming trend painfully clear to believers. The largest peak in temperatures was right at the beginning of the period in 06-07 and again in 09-10. We've been relatively cool globally in the last few years and look to stay that way with -PDO/-ENSO ruling the roost. 

top 10 warmest years on record are no where near relatively cool.

[Jonger]

HadCrut:

 

2011/12  0.249  0.268  0.229  0.381  0.116  0.249  0.242  0.382  0.115  0.382  0.115

2012/01  0.206  0.226  0.186  0.362  0.050  0.206  0.199  0.364  0.048  0.364  0.048

2012/02  0.186  0.206  0.166  0.331  0.041  0.186  0.179  0.333  0.039  0.333  0.039

2012/03  0.290  0.311  0.270  0.438  0.143  0.290  0.283  0.440  0.141  0.440  0.141

2012/04  0.499  0.517  0.481  0.643  0.355  0.499  0.491  0.644  0.354  0.644  0.353

2012/05  0.483  0.501  0.464  0.648  0.318  0.483  0.475  0.649  0.317  0.649  0.316

2012/06  0.482  0.500  0.465  0.625  0.339  0.482  0.475  0.626  0.338  0.626  0.338

2012/07  0.445  0.462  0.428  0.630  0.260  0.445  0.438  0.631  0.259  0.631  0.259

2012/08  0.513  0.531  0.496  0.738  0.289  0.513  0.506  0.739  0.288  0.739  0.288

2012/09  0.514  0.532  0.497  0.702  0.327  0.514  0.507  0.702  0.327  0.702  0.327

2012/10  0.499  0.517  0.482  0.647  0.352  0.499  0.492  0.648  0.351  0.648  0.351

2012/11  0.482  0.501  0.462  0.601  0.362  0.482  0.474  0.603  0.360  0.603  0.360

2012/12  0.233  0.254  0.211  0.370  0.095  0.233  0.226  0.372  0.094  0.372  0.094

 

 

Pretty chilly anomaly. Wasn't expecting it to be that cold. It seems like this is HadCruT3 though, if I'm not mistaken. The HadCruT4 values are slightly warmer than this, but a massive drop from November.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.1.1.0.monthly_ns_avg.txt

 

2011/12    0.368    0.328    0.414    0.332    0.404    0.253    0.484    0.310    0.429    0.239    0.499

2012/01    0.288    0.244    0.338    0.243    0.333    0.141    0.435    0.229    0.357    0.131    0.452

2012/02    0.208    0.163    0.259    0.156    0.261    0.063    0.353    0.140    0.282    0.048    0.372

2012/03    0.339    0.298    0.384    0.295    0.383    0.192    0.486    0.273    0.403    0.177    0.499

2012/04    0.525    0.486    0.571    0.473    0.578    0.382    0.669    0.456    0.596    0.367    0.687

2012/05    0.531    0.485    0.571    0.474    0.587    0.366    0.695    0.459    0.601    0.350    0.709

2012/06    0.506    0.466    0.553    0.454    0.558    0.364    0.647    0.441    0.577    0.351    0.665

2012/07    0.470    0.428    0.510    0.434    0.506    0.283    0.657    0.414    0.525    0.274    0.666

2012/08    0.532    0.483    0.573    0.494    0.570    0.306    0.758    0.472    0.590    0.299    0.766

2012/09    0.515    0.481    0.556    0.475    0.556    0.325    0.706    0.459    0.576    0.318    0.717

2012/10    0.527    0.486    0.568    0.491    0.563    0.379    0.674    0.471    0.586    0.370    0.687

2012/11    0.518    0.482    0.561    0.481    0.555    0.397    0.639    0.465    0.578    0.387    0.655

2012/12    0.269    0.221    0.312    0.234    0.303    0.131    0.406    0.209    0.325    0.119    0.418

 

Second coolest December since 1996.

Sounds like good news.

[skierinvermont]

The .25C drop on Had4 was similar to the .24C drop on GISS. Using the same baseline, the two results are quite similar with Had4 running only slightly colder than GISS by about .04 or .05C. This remaining difference is primarily due to different the different SST data source used by Had4 than GISS, which shows less warming over the last 15 years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Sounds like good news.

 

 

If your a cold/snow lover on the other side of the world.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It will interesting to see if the SH waters cool back to the recent cool period levels or stay warmer.

 

We know the NH waters will get very warm this Summer.  Ocean's are going to have to cool off or we won't see any shot of a below top 10 global temp finish without a December 2012 PV sitting over Asia like situation.

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Bob Tisdale's preliminary Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for January 2013 has the SSTs about 0.07 Degrees C cooler than December 2012 which was a relatively cool anomaly compared to the last 15 years.

 

[Snow_Miser]

As Nate and I thought, it does appear to seem as if a La Nina is developing in the Tropical Pacific:

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

display plot oiv2.ctl ssta 1 03jan2010 to 23jan2013

 

 

Two weeks in a row warming, and well warmer than last year.

[Jonger]

Bob Tisdale's preliminary Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for January 2013 has the SSTs about 0.07 Degrees C cooler than December 2012 which was a relatively cool anomaly compared to the last 15 years.

 

 

Warmer than last year, good thing its heading down.

[skierinvermont]

As Nate and I thought, it does appear to seem as if a La Nina is developing in the Tropical Pacific:

 

Not really.. negative OHC anomalies have already peaked and are warming. Warm subsurface anomalies continue to spread eastward. Even the daily SSTAs you posted are likely barely averaging -.5C in region 3.4.

 

The CPC gives less than a 20% chance of a La Nina developing in the next 6 months. 

[skierinvermont]

Bob Tisdale's preliminary Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly for January 2013 has the SSTs about 0.07 Degrees C cooler than December 2012 which was a relatively cool anomaly compared to the last 15 years.

 

It's not exactly Tisdale's. All Tisdale did is download it off the NOAA website. Also, December was above the 15 year average.

[nzucker]

Not really.. negative OHC anomalies have already peaked and are warming. Warm subsurface anomalies continue to spread eastward. Even the daily SSTAs you posted are likely barely averaging -.5C in region 3.4.

 

The CPC gives less than a 20% chance of a La Nina developing in the next 6 months. 

The subsurface has been cooling since the beginning of January at a fairly rapid pace...some -4C anomalies are starting to show up:

 

I think the CPC is being conservative. The westerly winds have peaked and we should see a return to easterlies in the next week or two. SOI has been negative but should start to rise. 

 

I doubt we see a strong Nina but a weaker one is definitely possible. The continued predictions of warming in the pipeline have mostly been a failure. The -PDO pattern has been cemented too with cold anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska and along the CA Coast, and that we can all agree on. 

[skierinvermont]

The subsurface has been cooling since the beginning of January at a fairly rapid pace...some -4C anomalies are starting to show up:

 

I think the CPC is being conservative. The westerly winds have peaked and we should see a return to easterlies in the next week or two. SOI has been negative but should start to rise. 

 

I doubt we see a strong Nina but a weaker one is definitely possible. The continued predictions of warming in the pipeline have mostly been a failure. The -PDO pattern has been cemented too with cold anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska and along the CA Coast, and that we can all agree on. 

 

This is not correct. You are only looking at two particular levels. Overall, negative OHC anomalies have already peaked and are rising. And the warm pool is spreading eastward as I said. This is classic Nino development. These deep warm anomalies in the west will be coming to the surface within a few months which doesn't give enough time to reach official Nina status. OHC has peaked at -.6C which is not typically low enough to reach Nina status. 

 

Instead of looking at only two levels, it is best to look at an animation of the entire depth profile. Also a mean of the entire OHC is helpful. I have provided these below. I'm assuming this is why you chose to only present 55 and 105 and not the 155m charts, unless you just didn't  check the 155m.

 

How about a friendly bet? I'll even give you 2:1 odds in your favor. If we get an official Nina in the period up to and including JAS*, where a Nina is defined as 5 consecutive trimonthlies below -.5, I give you $40, if not you give me $20. 

 

*JAS= July August September

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Official La Nina would almost never develop this time of the year through early summer. We could see the ENSO regions dip back below -0.5C though on a weekly basis for a time...esp during February.

[nzucker]

Official La Nina would almost never develop this time of the year through early summer. We could see the ENSO regions dip back below -0.5C though on a weekly basis for a time...esp during February.

 

Yeah I would never take that bet because we don't get a La Niña at this time...it would happen in late summer/fall. I'm just saying we're setting up well for another -ENSO/-PDO year, but I wouldn't expect five trimonthlies less than -0.5C at this point. I understand why some think a weak El Niño may occur but that could be wishcasting for Winter 13-14 more than anything else.