2013 Global Temperatures

[skierinvermont]

Yeah, let's downplay it.

 

dumb post for 2 reasons

 

1. assumes that individual, short-term, regional/local climate events have global/long-term significance

 

2. assumes that nzucker is biased in a way that he would want to downplay cold when in fact he is a self described skeptic and in my opinion denies much of the core well evidenced science of AGW

 

 

not even sure why this cold spell is in this thread other than an interesting observation

[Snow_Miser]

The most likely value for July has gone down to 0.41 Degrees C. Of course, the anomaly conversion may be on the high side, like it was with June, like Skier is suggesting, but I'll take the middle route for now.

[GaWx]

I lived in South America for 6 months, and this airmass doesn't seem that unusual. It's the middle of winter there, and it's not unusual for places like Buenos Aires to get into the 40s or upper 30s during the cold season. Santiago, Chile usually sees a few nights in the upper 20s/low 30s due to its elevation around 1600'. The places where it's getting into the 20s are the more remote pampas (grasslands) of Argentina, Uruguay, and a bit of Brazil...all of these places are very rural and most have some elevation. I agree that the northward extent of the cold is a bit rare, but not ridiculously so and not a true antarctic outbreak. 

 

 I agree with this. I follow SE Brazilian wx pretty closely in their winter because I watch the coffee market. Although the now minor growing area of Parana to SW Sao Paulo will probably get some frost, the major coffee growing regions of SE Brazil (central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais) aren't expecting major problems:

 

 Per Dow Jones news: "Some frost and light freeze conditions for the minor growing areas of northern Parana to southwest Sao Paulo with no significant problems expected for the major growing areas of central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais."

 

 I know that there have been colder airmasses than this in the central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais region just since 1998, when I started following it closely, because there was moderate damage even up into Minas Gerais in 2000. In addition, there have been several close calls up there since then. The current threat isn't really even a close call for Minas Gerais.

 By the way, the last severe freeze into Minas Gerais was in 1994.

 

 In summary, I don't at all think this is a big deal and certainly isn't an indicator of global cooling or a stoppage of global warming. This is just a local short-lived event and it isn't even that impressive relative to historical events. Keep in mind that I'm also not an AGW alarmist as I've been trying to maintain an open mind and neutral stance, especially because of my uneasiness about the sun's past effects on climate.

--------------------------------------------

 

Edit: per JB on Twitter two days ago: "Cant spin blocking or warm water for worst arctic attack into S Am since 1975.Antarctic oscillation strongly positive"

 

Ironically, this statement sounds like it might be spin from JB! I understand his point of it not being caused by a -AAO since it is +2 to +3 now. However, I question his calling this the worst Arctic attack into SA since 1975. To be fair, I'm focusing on SE Brazil, where it is far from the worst even just from 2000 as I've mentioned. Could it be the worst in some other regions of SA. I guess so. Does anyone else know the answer?

 

 By the way, 1975 had a devastating coffee freeze in SE Brazil. So, I can understand why he'd be referencing 1975.

[Jesse]

I don't think anyone is trying to tie the cold event in South America with some sort of statement about global cooling or a slowdown of global warming. The only reason it was even brought up is to partially explain for the cooler global temp anomalies this month (much of it centered in the Southern Hemisphere).

 

It is incredible how defensive some people are, though.

[Snow_Miser]

I don't think anyone is trying to tie the cold event in South America with some sort of statement about global cooling or a slowdown of global warming. The only reason it was even brought up is to partially explain for the cooler global temp anomalies this month (much of it centered in the Southern Hemisphere).

 

It is incredible how defensive some people are, though.

 

That's absolutely correct.

[Jesse]

 I agree with this. I follow SE Brazilian wx pretty closely in their winter because I watch the coffee market. Although the now minor growing area of Parana to SW Sao Paulo will probably get some frost, the major coffee growing regions of SE Brazil (central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais) aren't expecting major problems:

 

 Per Dow Jones news: "Some frost and light freeze conditions for the minor growing areas of northern Parana to southwest Sao Paulo with no significant problems expected for the major growing areas of central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais."

 

 I know that there have been colder airmasses than this in the central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais region just since 1998, when I started following it closely, because there was moderate damage even up into Minas Gerais in 2000. In addition, there have been several close calls up there since then. The current threat isn't really even a close call for Minas Gerais.

 By the way, the last severe freeze into Minas Gerais was in 1994.

 

 In summary, I don't at all think this is a big deal and certainly isn't an indicator of global cooling or a stoppage of global warming. This is just a local short-lived event and it isn't even that impressive relative to historical events. Keep in mind that I'm also not an AGW alarmist as I've been trying to maintain an open mind and neutral stance, especially because of my uneasiness about the sun's past effects on climate.

--------------------------------------------

 

Edit: per JB on Twitter two days ago: "Cant spin blocking or warm water for worst arctic attack into S Am since 1975.Antarctic oscillation strongly positive"

 

Ironically, this statement sounds like it might be spin from JB! I understand his point of it not being caused by a -AAO since it is +2 to +3 now. However, I question his calling this the worst Arctic attack into SA since 1975. To be fair, I'm focusing on SE Brazil, where it is far from the worst even just from 2000 as I've mentioned. Could it be the worst in some other regions of SA. I guess so. Does anyone else know the answer?

 

 By the way, 1975 had a devastating coffee freeze in SE Brazil. So, I can understand why he'd be referencing 1975.

 

Yeah, I imagine if this "antarctic blast" is anywhere near as severe as some are making it out to be it is probably affecting more than a small region of one country.

[GaWx]

Yeah, I imagine if this "antarctic blast" is anywhere near as severe as some are making it out to be it is probably affecting more than a small region of one country.

 

 Fair enough as it could have a very different trajectory vs. the past bad Brazilian coffee freezes (possibly more south to north than south to NE), but do you (or does anyone for that matter) actually have any concrete evidence that JB's calling this the worst Antarctic attack into S.A. since 1975 is even warranted? Have there been widespread record lows in many other regions of South America to warrant such a statement?

[Jesse]

 Fair enough as it could have a very different trajectory vs. the past bad Brazilian coffee freezes (possibly more south to north than south to NE), but do you (or does anyone for that matter) actually have any concrete evidence that JB's calling this the worst Antarctic attack into S.A. since 1975 is even warranted? Have there been widespread record lows in many other regions of South America to warrant such a statement?

 

I have no idea. It would be fun to do some research though. Maybe later when I'm less busy.

[ORH_wxman]

 I agree with this. I follow SE Brazilian wx pretty closely in their winter because I watch the coffee market. Although the now minor growing area of Parana to SW Sao Paulo will probably get some frost, the major coffee growing regions of SE Brazil (central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais) aren't expecting major problems:

 

 Per Dow Jones news: "Some frost and light freeze conditions for the minor growing areas of northern Parana to southwest Sao Paulo with no significant problems expected for the major growing areas of central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais."

 

 I know that there have been colder airmasses than this in the central Sao Paulo to Minas Gerais region just since 1998, when I started following it closely, because there was moderate damage even up into Minas Gerais in 2000. In addition, there have been several close calls up there since then. The current threat isn't really even a close call for Minas Gerais.

 By the way, the last severe freeze into Minas Gerais was in 1994.

 

 In summary, I don't at all think this is a big deal and certainly isn't an indicator of global cooling or a stoppage of global warming. This is just a local short-lived event and it isn't even that impressive relative to historical events. Keep in mind that I'm also not an AGW alarmist as I've been trying to maintain an open mind and neutral stance, especially because of my uneasiness about the sun's past effects on climate.

--------------------------------------------

 

Edit: per JB on Twitter two days ago: "Cant spin blocking or warm water for worst arctic attack into S Am since 1975.Antarctic oscillation strongly positive"

 

Ironically, this statement sounds like it might be spin from JB! I understand his point of it not being caused by a -AAO since it is +2 to +3 now. However, I question his calling this the worst Arctic attack into SA since 1975. To be fair, I'm focusing on SE Brazil, where it is far from the worst even just from 2000 as I've mentioned. Could it be the worst in some other regions of SA. I guess so. Does anyone else know the answer?

 

 By the way, 1975 had a devastating coffee freeze in SE Brazil. So, I can understand why he'd be referencing 1975.

 

 

Well there's this article I found which is referencing snow for the first time since 1975 (38 years) in many areas...but haven't found any info on how the cold itself measures compared to historical outbreaks. The worst of it is to hit in the next couple days, so I guess we'll find out then.

 

http://latinalista.com/2013/07/southern-brazil-blanketed-by-snow-a-sight-not-seen-in-38-years

[GaWx]

I have no idea. It would be fun to do some research though. Maybe later when I'm less busy.

 

 It appears that the surface high maxed out at around 1035 mb and that was in northern Argentina and NW Paraguay. Granted, that is impressively high. This strong high was made possible by a combo of a very strong upper ridge just west of SW S.A. and a very strong upper trough dipping "down" (really "up" down there) into northern Argentina, Uruguay, and far southern Brazil. However, in order for there to be a significant coffee freeze, the high would normally have needed to then move bodily eastward (even if weakening, which is normal) into SE Brazil. Instead, it is going to move SE into far southern Brazil ,which is well south of the main coffee areas.

 So, I'd like to know if places like northern Argentina, NW Paraguay, Uruguay, and far southern Brazil end up experiencing cold not experienced since 1975 from this airmass. If not, then we'd largely just be left with southern Argentina and southern Chile. I haven't heard anything specific about those areas. Also, if only those areas are affected, would it be fair to call it the worst for SA since 1975?

[Geos]

I don't think anyone is trying to tie the cold event in South America with some sort of statement about global cooling or a slowdown of global warming. The only reason it was even brought up is to partially explain for the cooler global temp anomalies this month (much of it centered in the Southern Hemisphere).

 

It is incredible how defensive some people are, though.

 

Right. It's an interesting event. It seems a bit unusual at how far the front has traveled to the north.

[GaWx]

Well there's this article I found which is referencing snow for the first time since 1975 (38 years) in many areas...but haven't found any info on how the cold itself measures compared to historical outbreaks. The worst of it is to hit in the next couple days, so I guess we'll find out then.

 

http://latinalista.com/2013/07/southern-brazil-blanketed-by-snow-a-sight-not-seen-in-38-years

 

 Thanks. From Wiki for Curitiba: "Snowfall was experienced in 1889, 1892, 1912, 1928, 1942, 1955, 1957, 1962, 1975 and for the last time in 2013.^[17] Among Brazil's twenty-six state capitals, Curitiba is the coldest due its altitude." It is at about 3,000 feet.

 

 So, Wiki agrees about this being the first snow in Curitiba since 1975. 1975 had a devastating coffee freeze (as I mentioned earlier).

 

 However, I would be very careful in how I interpet this article. It says:

 

"After 38 years, Curitiba, capital of Parana State, in southern BRAZIL, saw snow again!

Not only there, but also in more than one hundred cities in the southern states of Brazil — Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul."

 

 I don't necessarily think it really snowed in >100 cities for the first time since 1975. Rather, I'm educatedly guessing that it snowed in >100 cities with this event, but that it wasn't the first since 1975 in many of the other 100+ cities. I say that because I recall snow falling in at least Rio Grande do Sul (further south than Curitiba) several times since 1998.

 

 No doubt that makes this a very interesting event. However, a major city having its first snowfall since 1975 and this being the worst Antarctic outbreak into S.A. are not necessarily one and the same thing to which you alluded. Also, as I said, it certainly won't be even close to the worst cold a little further NE in Brazil. I remain quite skeptical but can be convinced it warrants the worst since 1975 headline if I'm shown actual lows that are the coldest since 1975 in a decent number of areas.

[skierinvermont]

I don't think anyone is trying to tie the cold event in South America with some sort of statement about global cooling or a slowdown of global warming. The only reason it was even brought up is to partially explain for the cooler global temp anomalies this month (much of it centered in the Southern Hemisphere).

 

It is incredible how defensive some people are, though.

 

You began with the snarky comments towards zucker. You were clearly accusing him of some bias and assuming that this had something to do with AGW. 

[GaWx]

 Following up on the coldest S.A. airmass since 1975 debate and the article that mentioned the first snowfall since 1975 at Curitiba (which itself is not being debated):

 

 From the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology 7/21/2000 (from my coffee file), translated into English:

 

"The inbound of new cold air mass will be able to provoke: snow fall in the mountains, plateaus, and the north of the Rio Grande Do Sul (between days 23 and 24/07), snow fall in the mountains, plateaus, and the north of Santa Catarina (between days 23 and 24/07),..."

 

 This was around the time of the moderate coffee freeze of 2000, which I mentioned. I had said that I remembered snows in Rio Grande Do Sul since 1998. Here is evidence of one being forecasted for there and even further north into Santa Catarina. My point is that I'm defending my educated guess that we didn't just have the first snow since 1975 in over 100 cities in Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande Do Sul. In Curitiba and possibly a few other cities, I could buy, however.

[nzucker]

 It appears that the surface high maxed out at around 1035 mb and that was in northern Argentina and NW Paraguay. Granted, that is impressively high. This strong high was made possible by a combo of a very strong upper ridge just west of SW S.A. and a very strong upper trough dipping "down" (really "up" down there) into northern Argentina, Uruguay, and far southern Brazil. However, in order for there to be a significant coffee freeze, the high would normally have needed to then move bodily eastward (even if weakening, which is normal) into SE Brazil. Instead, it is going to move SE into far southern Brazil ,which is well south of the main coffee areas.

 So, I'd like to know if places like northern Argentina, NW Paraguay, Uruguay, and far southern Brazil end up experiencing cold not experienced since 1975 from this airmass. If not, then we'd largely just be left with southern Argentina and southern Chile. I haven't heard anything specific about those areas. Also, if only those areas are affected, would it be fair to call it the worst for SA since 1975?

 

I think this cold shot looks most severe in areas like Paraguay and Bolivia, not necessary Brazil. The surface high is fairly impressive but 850s aren't overly cold...the 850 0C contour passes through all of Paraguay, which is very unusual and allows for the freezing conditions in Buenos Aires and Montevideo, but there's no real frigid air further south. Most of Patagonia is only -1C to -2C during this outbreak when they routinely see -10C 850s during winter. 

[GaWx]

http://iceagenow.info/2013/07/brazil-snow-80-cities-roads-schools-closed/

 

 "The cold wave, which reaches South, Southeast, Midwest, and up to two northern states of the country (Rondônia and Acre), is the longest in 13 years, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet)."

 

 The longest in 13 years means the longest since 2000, the year of the last sig. Brazilian coffee freeze. So, this jibes well with what I was saying and is much more believable than what Bastardi said, which was that this was the worst Antarctic outbreak in S. A. since 1975. Also, this was the 'longest", not the "coldest" since 2000. I recall it being colder in major coffee regions since 2000 than the current chill.

 

 

"According to weatherman Marcelo Schneider of Inmet, the snowfall in Santa Catarina and Paraná is one of the largest in decades. In some cities, such as Curitiba, the last occurrence was 38 years ago."

 

 This is in line with my thinking. This was the first snow in 38 years in SOME cities, not the first since 1975 in 100+ cities. However, it snowed in nearly 100 cities...actually 87 per this...which was consistent with what I had said.

------------------------------------------------------

 

From Dow Jones News today:

"NEW YORK--Arabica-coffee futures fell 2.9% on Wednesday as a cold snap in
top grower Brazil was expected to cause only minor damage to this year's crop. 

  Arabica-coffee for delivery in September on ICE Futures U.S. hit as low as
$1.2225 a pound. 

  'It's not widespread,' said Gustavo Moretti, a trader in Santos, Brazil, for
Ecom Agroindustrial Corp., one of the world's biggest coffee traders.'"

 

 

 In contrast in 2000, coffee prices went up sharply due to that winter's moderate freeze that was pretty widespread. In summary, this is quite the newsworthy cold and snow outbreak. I'm not at all questioning that. However, there's little to support Bastard's hyperbole that it was the worst since 1975.

[nflwxman]

Speaking of Bastardi and Co, why does the weatherbell climate trace (CFS based) show dropping temperatures between 2008 and now?  It somehow shows 2008 as warmer than 2011 and 2012, which I'm pretty sure is not the case in any other data set.  Perhaps this was talked about before, but does anyone have an explanation for this?

[Snow_Miser]

We're finally warming the July anomaly up a bit on the dailies, but the monthly anomaly still at -0.13 Degrees C. It won't warm up much more, but it should warm up a bit IMO.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

We're finally warming the July anomaly up a bit on the dailies, but the monthly anomaly still at -0.13 Degrees C. It won't warm up much more, but it should warm up a bit IMO.

 

 

 

 

My CFS prediction is going to be off by around .20C.

 

Predicting temps on a monthly timescale is rough.  Especially when ENSO is variable. 

 

I will still go with a warm July.  At some point it's going to flip.  There is just to much heat at the global water surface level. 

 

 

EDIT: I MEAN I WILL GO WARM FOR AUGUST, NOT JULY OBVIOUSLY.

[ORH_wxman]

My guess is July on GISS comes in under +0.50C. We're out of time to warm the CFS anomaly up above -0.10C for the month.

[tacoman25]

My guess is July on GISS comes in under +0.50C. We're out of time to warm the CFS anomaly up above -0.10C for the month.

 

Some big swing and misses this month on the warm side.

[Snow_Miser]

Some big swing and misses this month on the warm side.

 

Yep. Even I was too warm.

 

This should end up between 0.42 and 0.45 Degrees C IMO.

[skierinvermont]

Speaking of Bastardi and Co, why does the weatherbell climate trace (CFS based) show dropping temperatures between 2008 and now?  It somehow shows 2008 as warmer than 2011 and 2012, which I'm pretty sure is not the case in any other data set.  Perhaps this was talked about before, but does anyone have an explanation for this?

 

The CFS is not an accurate measure of long-term temperatures. It can model short-term swings, which allows for accurate month to month predictions of the global temperature anomaly when properly adjusted.

[The_Global_Warmer]

July is already sealed and delivered.  I busted hardcore on my .10C CFS prediction.  It's looking like it will be about .20C off.  Which is amazing.  We finished June at .06C.  This month looks to finish at -.10C on CFS. 

 

 

 

Unfortunitely we don't get channel 5 temps anymore.  But channel 6 were not as cool as the surface reflects.  So the Sats might be warmer than the surface temps.  But it's impossible to say.  What we do know is Channel 6 and 7 are both warming right now.  Probably in response to warmth from the SST jump.  I don't know.  Just guessing.  Either way they have passed 2009 but are below 2010.  They have some correlation to lower level temps.  So we can presume the lower atmosphere overall is relatively warm or will be.  It's not likely that they go this high and not have any reflection. 

 

In fact, well you can check here and draw you're own conclusions.  At this point we know some folks will go colder and some will go warmer which is where I typically go.

 

Then again so far 2013 is one of the or the warmest non NINO year on record up to this point.  Which has leaned closer to NINA, so going warm has a lot of merit even though it proved to be wrong on at least CFS.  Land areas really dominated with cool.  While the oceans took the heat, mostly the Northern Hemisphere.

 

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some would think after July to go cool.  But I can't.  not when global ssts are sitting close to .30C anomaly which is almost exclusively NINO territory.  So we will either continue to see cold continents and warming oceans or not and in that case the warm continents will go with warm oceans that take time to cool = big global warmth.  It's one way to get there.  I don't know what to make of this.  It might be what a -PDO is supposed to be but it's like it's on steroids. 

 

I am going to believe them again, even though between Dr Spencers UAH and the CPC I have been tricked three times by **** data.  Which has led my perceptions of reality down a bogus path.

 

Muted but still growing again.  Not near as much but noticible that the cold vanished for the most part sub-surface.

 

 

It's nothing to write home about but there just happens to be a blowtorch from 30-90N.  So now a lil bit of ENSO warming can go along way when some other part of the globe is doing the heavy lifting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

With all that said, I want to wait until tomorrow to make a prediction for August to see the latest weeklies and tonight's GFS.

[ORH_wxman]

I would stick to TAO/Triton SST data when looking at subsurface ENSO...its a narrower latitude band (2N to 2S instead of 5N to 5S) versus CPC, but it seems to be far more accurate than the CPC version and its more recent data too.

 

It shows the little bubble of warmth, likely in response to a little westerly wind burst...but the forecast remains hostile out in the long term. There is basically zero chance of an El Nino if this keeps up much longer...in fact, I've pretty much written it off, though I suppose there is still an outside hail mary attempt at a weak Nino.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah when the OHC and subsurface anomalies were revised downwards I pretty much wrote off a Nino. I was starting to lose faith before the revision, but my assumptions about ENSO were based on some very incorrect data. Once it was revised colder, Nino became pretty unlikely.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Yeah when the OHC and subsurface anomalies were revised downwards I pretty much wrote off a Nino. I was starting to lose faith before the revision, but my assumptions about ENSO were based on some very incorrect data. Once it was revised colder, Nino became pretty unlikely.

 

I feel ya on that.  The last graph for Upper Ocean OHC was up to 0.7C before the revision.  Which is warm enough to presume some ENSO warming.  They dropped them back to 0.2C.  Now they have risen slightly.  But something else has happened.

 

 

 

The weekly global SSTs have risen back to 0.3C.  5 of 6 weeks have seen warming.  This has been driven by the 30-90N SSTs now essentially matching 2012 as the warmest on record for that area.  In fact they are much warmer earlier than 2012 was.  Which peaked in September. 

 

 

WTF?  There is obviously going to be a blow-back from this.  Last year had way more ENSO help.  This year doesn't.  This is surely unprecedented in our records given the ENSO state.  Hell the AMO is not very high. 

 

I am going to throw out .10C again on the CFS for August.  I don't know GISS historical August records so I will have to look through them before going there. 

[ORH_wxman]

I feel ya on that.  The last graph for Upper Ocean OHC was up to 0.7C before the revision.  Which is warm enough to presume some ENSO warming.  They dropped them back to 0.2C.  Now they have risen slightly.  But something else has happened.

 

 

 

The weekly global SSTs have risen back to 0.3C.  5 of 6 weeks have seen warming.  This has been driven by the 30-90N SSTs now essentially matching 2012 as the warmest on record for that area.  In fact they are much warmer earlier than 2012 was.  Which peaked in September. 

 

 

WTF?  There is obviously going to be a blow-back from this.  Last year had way more ENSO help.  This year doesn't.  This is surely unprecedented in our records given the ENSO state.  Hell the AMO is not very high. 

 

I am going to throw out .10C again on the CFS for August.  I don't know GISS historical August records so I will have to look through them before going there. 

 

 

 

GISS warmest August on record is +0.68C in 1998 and 2011...if we had a +0.10C CFS anomaly then that number could be challenged.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GISS warmest August on record is +0.68C in 1998 and 2011...if we had a +0.10C CFS anomaly then that number could be challenged.

 

Thanks.  2012 had a relatively cool JUL at 51, then a 58 August.  Then railed off 68, 71, 68, before a December drop to 44.

 

We are slightly ahead of last year with SSTs.  However tropical is cooler.  Either way it's impossible to really predict at all.  Except the odds of a few really warm months is there when ocean surface heating gets up there. 

 

So assuming CFS is -.10C for July.  Then it would be .40 to .50C with .45C as the median.  The highest margin I think you said was .64C.  So we could match last year.  Unless GISS comes in really cool it doesn't matter for the end because GISS will have to be really really warm to crack the next level of years above it.

 

 

If I presumed the rest of this year is like 2012 we finish the year at 58.5(59).  So tied with a couple other years or like 7th on record.

 

 

If we go exactly the same but warm December up from 44 to 60 we finish at 59.8(60). 

 

 

This really lays out that this year will likely finish above 2012 but below all of the years above it.  Except the .59 years of 2006 and 2009 if we have a big warm stretch.

[GaWx]

Friv, skier, or anyone else,

 Any idea why the Nino OHC was revised downward so much (from +0.70 to ~+0.24) in early July? Also, June was revised downward quite a bit.

 By the way, the lack of a Nino would jibe quite well with the persistent solidly +SOI's so far this summer.