2013 Global Temperatures

[Snow_Miser]

NCDC had a cooler anomaly than GISS for June. Still pretty warm overall, of course, since the indicators from the CFS were that June would be pretty warm. Ties 2006 as 5th warmest June on record.

 

2013 is now the 7th warmest year on record on NCDC.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/6

 

From the link:

 

• "The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10^th warmest June on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record."

[Jesse]

Yeah it really shows.

 

I'll say. If I didn't know any better I'd think you WANTED to earth to get warmer. I mean, that would be totally crazy, though. 

[Jonger]

 

NCDC had a cooler anomaly than GISS for June. Still pretty warm overall, of course, since the indicators from the CFS were that June would be pretty warm. Ties 2006 as 5th warmest June on record.

 

2013 is now the 7th warmest year on record on NCDC.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/6

 

From the link:

 

• "The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record. For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C (0.86°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the 10^th warmest June on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period on record."

 

 

Above the previously adjusted records.

[SVT450R]

Looks like we could be looking at the coldest month of the year.

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like we could be looking at the coldest month of the year.

 

Quite likely, considering that even though the CFS temperatures warmed up from the daily departures from -0.25 Degrees C to -0.1 Degrees C, it's still close to the monthly anomalyof -0.132 Degrees C, meaning that not too much of a change should be expected with the monthly anomaly, even if the anomaly holds at -0.1 Degrees C.

[LithiaWx]

He's saying you have a massive, all-consuming warm bias.

  

Yeah it really shows.

  

I'll say. If I didn't know any better I'd think you WANTED to earth to get warmer. I mean, that would be totally crazy, though.

'Copter

[The_Global_Warmer]

Above the previously adjusted records.

 

 

UAH is running 4th warmest on record.  Must be adjusted to be warm too.

 

NCDC is now at .60C for the year with GFS at .57C.  Both are not in their own top 5 warmest years.   But UAH is. 

 

Funny. 

[Snow_Miser]

With just about 2/3 of the month being logged in, the anomaly still hasn't changed much from where it was a few days ago. It's still -0.13 Degrees C. The Daily Anomalies have dropped back to -0.15 Degrees C or so.

 

Thus, I will say that the most likely CFS Global Temperature anomaly will be -0.13+/-0.05 Degrees C, which would equate to a most likely GISS Temperature this month of 0.42+/-0.05 Degrees C.

[The_Global_Warmer]

looks like the 2nd coolest July of the decade.

 

For the second time in less than a year they have revised the enso region to a cooler outcome. 

 

I wonder how many here will be up in arms over this kind of adjusting of the data.

 

 

[LithiaWx]

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like the daily anomalies dropped to -0.2 degrees C again on the CFS. Expect the monthly anomaly to decline a bit over the next couple of days at least.

[Snow_Miser]

looks like the 2nd coolest July of the decade.

For the second time in less than a year they have revised the enso region to a cooler outcome.

I wonder how many here will be up in arms over this kind of adjusting of the data.

The adjusted data shows virtually no sign of any eminent large scale subsurface warmth to surface anymore. Pretty dramatic revision.

[Geos]

A lot of the warm anomalies are over the ocean's in the north hemisphere it looks like. Quite a bit of blue over the continents!

[Snow_Miser]

I've been using this global temperature anomaly map and it uses the same base period as the Weatherbell maps (1981-2010). Why is there such a large difference between the anomalies?

Interesting also how dramatically this map has cooled as well.

It was showing anomalies near +0.6 Degrees C a few weeks ago. Now it's at +0.09 degrees C.

Pretty large swing, if this map has any sort of clue at all.

Looks like a lot of this month's negative anomalies are stemming directly from Antarctica. That's a frigid depiction down there.

[Harry]

looks like the 2nd coolest July of the decade.

 

For the second time in less than a year they have revised the enso region to a cooler outcome. 

 

I wonder how many here will be up in arms over this kind of adjusting of the data.

 

 

 

I really wish they wouldn't do this.. BTW i am talking from a seasonal forecasting standpoint. Example. Say if they did not do this and the prior two revisions ( thus working with the old stuff/data )and say we are in a weak nino vs now per the new way it is neutral.  Think of the implications that has on a outlook for winter? Follow me? Wonder how many have adjusted their seasonal outlooks because of this?

[Snow_Miser]

This image is from Ryan Maue's Twitter. Pretty impressive cold anomalies into South America being forecasted by the GFS. On the CFS, South America isn't that cold at all so far for July. Should put a dent on any positive anomaly into Southern Brazil there for this month, given that a maximum negative anomaly of -38 F is being forecasted.

 

[skierinvermont]

I really wish they wouldn't do this.. BTW i am talking from a seasonal forecasting standpoint. Example. Say if they did not do this and the prior two revisions ( thus working with the old stuff/data )and say we are in a weak nino vs now per the new way it is neutral.  Think of the implications that has on a outlook for winter? Follow me? Wonder how many have adjusted their seasonal outlooks because of this?

 

That's not the revision Friv was pointing out. The adjustment Friv was pointing out is that they appear to have suddenly revised the data colder and I have no idea why. Maybe some sensor drift going on or something? No idea.

 

 

You're referring to the well known fact that the CPC changed the baselines for ENSO a year or two ago. Now it's a rolling baseline to account for the fact that the earth is warming. It really should not affect seasonal outlooks all that much and could in fact be a good thing for seasonal outlooks. As the earth continues to warm, the traditional baseline would say that we are constantly in an El Nino.. but since the surface forcing is probably relative to the background temperature the weather pattern would not actually always be El Nino even though the ONI said it is an El Nino. 

[Harry]

That's not the revision Friv was pointing out. The adjustment Friv was pointing out is that they appear to have suddenly revised the data colder and I have no idea why. Maybe some sensor drift going on or something? No idea.

 

 

You're referring to the well known fact that the CPC changed the baselines for ENSO a year or two ago. Now it's a rolling baseline to account for the fact that the earth is warming. It really should not affect seasonal outlooks all that much and could in fact be a good thing for seasonal outlooks. As the earth continues to warm, the traditional baseline would say that we are constantly in an El Nino.. but since the surface forcing is probably relative to the background temperature the weather pattern would not actually always be El Nino even though the ONI said it is an El Nino. 

 

 

That could make for a very good discussion/debate. If we are in a constant state of el'nino then i think it would affect the weather patterns. See the Atlantic tropical season for one such example. But anyways that is for another thread perhaps? Would be interested in hearing other opinions as well on this.

 

I mean say if someone was to use 76-77 or 77-78 as a enso analog based on the fact the NEWER BASELINES say we have a weak nino wouldn't this have implications on the outcome? Similar thing if forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It has been an impressively cold month.  And looks like one of the coolest July's since pre mid 1990s, outside of 2004.

[skierinvermont]

That could make for a very good discussion/debate. If we are in a constant state of el'nino then i think it would affect the weather patterns. See the Atlantic tropical season for one such example. But anyways that is for another thread perhaps? Would be interested in hearing other opinions as well on this.

 

I mean say if someone was to use 76-77 or 77-78 as a enso analog based on the fact the NEWER BASELINES say we have a weak nino wouldn't this have implications on the outcome? Similar thing if forecasting the Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Did those years not have weak El Nino patterns? I don't know. Maybe those years seem better off in the neutral category, but a moving baseline might help to re-categorize other years more appropriately. It's possible that regrouping them on a moving baseline instead of a fixed baseline helps to categorize analogs into more cohesive and consistent categories. One things for certain, an ONI of +.5 on the old fixed baseline will yield a very different weather pattern in a warm world than a cold world. The moving baseline attempts to account for this issue, but neither fixed nor moving baselines are a perfect solution. If the earth warms 1C, an ONI of +1 is going to look very different than it does today since the forcing will essentially be neutral compared to the surrounding anomalies. In other words, an ONI of +1 may act more like a neutral in 50 years. SSTs of +1 in the ENSO region will not be especially warm compared to surrounding areas. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The weeklies have gone up to 0.27C on the global SST chart.  This means a kickback is coming. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

I'm surprised at how stubbornly cold July has been. The daily anomaly has been below -0.1C on the weatherbell maps for almost the whole month save a few days in the middle.

[Snow_Miser]

I'm surprised at how stubbornly cold July has been. The daily anomaly has been below -0.1C on the weatherbell maps for almost the whole month save a few days in the middle.

 

I'm pretty surprised as well. I thought for sure that the monthly anomaly would have warmed up some by now. The daily anomalies are now down to near -0.2 Degrees C again.

 

 

Time is running out for the -0.134 Degree C anomaly to warm up.

[Geos]

In relation to the South America map posted above - here is the predicted low for 07/24/13!

 

You've got lows in the 40-50s getting into sub tropical areas.

 

[Snow_Miser]

In relation to the South America map posted above - here is the predicted low for 07/24/13!

 

You've got lows in the 40-50s getting into sub tropical areas.

 

southamerica_lows072413.png

 

Yeah, that's some pretty intense and impressive cold getting so far north in South America.

[skierinvermont]

Surprisingly cold month. I stand by my previous reasoning that the fundamentals were and are pointing to warmth in the .6-.7 range although I may have rushed the timing a bit. Mostly, however, I think the cold is due to some unpredictable (for me at least) short-term variation that has been going on the last few months. I should probably have hedged my guess that this cold may have continued as it has. If I could have guessed for July again I think a more reasonable guess would have been .6-.65 instead of my .68 which basically assumed the cold would break without any hedging that it would not.

 

I still believe that the cold is likely to break soon and the fundamentals point to warming (warm OHC surfacing in ENSO, global SST, and the inevitable end of cold weather in the arctic). However, for August I will hedge my guess as I should have in July and guess .63 although I am likely to revise this based on how the last week of July finishes. If the CFS is still at -.2 in a week, I would have to revise colder. 

 

I believe July will finish a little warmer than Snowlover's suggestion of .42C. I would guess the month finishes at -.11C on the CFS which would point to .44C on GISS, but given that SSTs are quite warm and GISS uses SST data over 90% of the oceans, I think the CFS-GISS relationship will be on the warm side this month.

 

So I'll go with .47C on GISS for July. 

[nzucker]

In relation to the South America map posted above - here is the predicted low for 07/24/13!

 

You've got lows in the 40-50s getting into sub tropical areas.

 

southamerica_lows072413.png

I lived in South America for 6 months, and this airmass doesn't seem that unusual. It's the middle of winter there, and it's not unusual for places like Buenos Aires to get into the 40s or upper 30s during the cold season. Santiago, Chile usually sees a few nights in the upper 20s/low 30s due to its elevation around 1600'. The places where it's getting into the 20s are the more remote pampas (grasslands) of Argentina, Uruguay, and a bit of Brazil...all of these places are very rural and most have some elevation. I agree that the northward extent of the cold is a bit rare, but not ridiculously so and not a true antarctic outbreak. 

[Snow_Miser]

I lived in South America for 6 months, and this airmass doesn't seem that unusual. It's the middle of winter there, and it's not unusual for places like Buenos Aires to get into the 40s or upper 30s during the cold season. Santiago, Chile usually sees a few nights in the upper 20s/low 30s due to its elevation around 1600'. The places where it's getting into the 20s are the more remote pampas (grasslands) of Argentina, Uruguay, and a bit of Brazil...all of these places are very rural and most have some elevation. I agree that the northward extent of the cold is a bit rare, but not ridiculously so and not a true antarctic outbreak. 

 

You can see the resulting anomalies of the forecasted cold shot in the image I posted above.

[Geos]

You can see the resulting anomalies of the forecasted cold shot in the image I posted above.

 

Yeah that map shows nicely where the limit of the cold air usually gets to. That's quite an extensive area of deep blues and purples. 

 

Where this colder air is going is into the subtropics and tropic climate zones.

 

Eastern Bolivia (13-19°S) where you have departures over -30 is the equivalent to having southern Mexico/Guatemala experiencing 30s and 40s for lows!

 

[Jesse]

I lived in South America for 6 months, and this airmass doesn't seem that unusual. It's the middle of winter there, and it's not unusual for places like Buenos Aires to get into the 40s or upper 30s during the cold season. Santiago, Chile usually sees a few nights in the upper 20s/low 30s due to its elevation around 1600'. The places where it's getting into the 20s are the more remote pampas (grasslands) of Argentina, Uruguay, and a bit of Brazil...all of these places are very rural and most have some elevation. I agree that the northward extent of the cold is a bit rare, but not ridiculously so and not a true antarctic outbreak. 

 

Yeah, let's downplay it.