nzucker Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 GISS also revised April downward again to +0.47C. Its a little bit annoying how GISS does this, which means you have to keep an eye on their anomalies because the prelim number can be off by several hundreths from the final. The original for April 2013 was +0.51C. How did May and June rank all-time after the revisions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 How did May and June rank all-time after the revisions? June hasn't been revised yet, it just came out and is currently 2nd warmest. May ranks 10th warmest. After the April revision, it ranked 14th warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 GISS also revised April downward again to +0.47C. Its a little bit annoying how GISS does this, which means you have to keep an eye on their anomalies because the prelim number can be off by several hundreths from the final. The original for April 2013 was +0.51C. That is definitely a bit annoying. With the prelim June numbers, the year to date GISS temp anomaly is +0.57. The way things are going with July, it would likely bump the YTD anomaly down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 GISS uses 100 year average, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2013 Author Share Posted July 13, 2013 GISS uses 100 year average, right? No NCDC does. GISS uses 1951-1980. Considering UAH came in at .30C GISS isn't that ridiculous It is roughly .62C higher than CFS. The biggest difference is both poles. Except Antarctica experienced more warming before CFS baseline 1981-2010. The arctic more warming during it. I suspect UAH will show Antarctica much warmer than May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 The daily CFS anomalies have dropped below -0.2 Degrees C again. Right now the most likely anomaly for July on GISS is between 0.39-0.49 Degrees C based off of the current CFS anomaly so far for this month. This can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 The daily CFS anomalies have dropped below -0.2 Degrees C again. Right now the most likely anomaly for July on GISS is between 0.39-0.49 Degrees C based off of the current CFS anomaly so far for this month. This can still change. No doubt...we're not even halfway through the month, so it could change significantly by the end. The CFS correlation didn't work very well for June, but then it is still the prelim number and will probably be revised down like the past few months. Like Will said, a bit annoying because you have to be patient for the "real" number to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 No doubt...we're not even halfway through the month, so it could change significantly by the end. The CFS correlation didn't work very well for June, but then it is still the prelim number and will probably be revised down like the past few months. Like Will said, a bit annoying because you have to be patient for the "real" number to emerge. Well the June number came in at 0.61C higher than the CFS anomaly...which is slightly out of range (the very confident range is 0.50-0.60 higher), but I'll bet that number is revised downward. It will still be a bit on the high end of the range though I think. We just have to remember that the correlation has about a 0.10C range. So we're going to see some months that are on the endpoints of those. We're getting to the point where its becoming fairly likely that we end up cooler than June...we'll need to see a pretty fast spike probably in the next 4-5 days that maintains itself for at least 10 days in order to finish warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 There is no way that my CFS prediction happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Does the weatherbell map update daily? If so, please post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Does the weatherbell map update daily? If so, please post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Does the weatherbell map update daily? If so, please post.I posted a hotlink to the CFS daily anomalies in a post of mine above.Interestingly, the CFS anomalies continue to cool. Can the daily anomalies reach -0.3 Degrees C on the CFS? As of now, the most likely range is now 0.38-0.48 Degrees C for the July GISS anomaly. As I said before though, this can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 15, 2013 Author Share Posted July 15, 2013 This has been a crazy month. My prediction is currently .227C off right now. Antarctica has had some huge cold anomalies and Russia. Russia is suppose to turn much warmer right now. Like all the way from West to East to the arctic coast. So that should help. Still below normal though on the daily charts. SSTs are back up to 0.25C on the weekly's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Now the most likely range has gone down to 0.37-0.47. I think it warms up some from where we are right now, but I think we get an anomaly below 0.5 degrees C this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 15, 2013 Share Posted July 15, 2013 Still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 ENSO is going to play a huge role in this. The North Pacific on the weeklies has warmed almost to the peak weekly level during the 2009 NINO in late September. Pretty early to be this high given the ENSO conditions. N. Pacific weeklies. The daily chart has continued to blow up the heat even more. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 ENSO is going to play a huge role in this. I doubt it. I don't see ENSO being a big player this year. I'm guessing neutral. I suppose its possible we still get a weak event, but right now its not looking very favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I doubt it. I don't see ENSO being a big player this year. I'm guessing neutral. I suppose its possible we still get a weak event, but right now its not looking very favorable. You have to remember: ENSO is leaning warm, and Friv leans warm. See the similarity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 You have to remember: ENSO is leaning warm, and Friv leans warm. See the similarity? ENSO itself isn't even leaning warm at this point. He's looking at upper ocean heat anomalies, which have warmed quite a bit in large part to the North Pacific pattern. But that doesn't correlate as well to global temps as ENSO does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 ENSO itself isn't even leaning warm at this point. He's looking at upper ocean heat anomalies, which have warmed quite a bit in large part to the North Pacific pattern. But that doesn't correlate as well to global temps as ENSO does. The upper ocean heat anomaly graph he posted is for the equatorial pacific, so it does affect ENSO on some level. But the subsurface isn't even as impressive as last year at this point which never did achieve Nino status. I am skeptical of this year achieving official Nino status as well. The 850 U-wind anomaly forecast looks pretty hostile in the next couple of weeks for developing El Nino. I expect we'll see some warming by default given the subsurface, but the warm anomalies will be cooling as they rise because of the trade winds, so the net realization on the surface will be less than what might normally happen if we had better conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 the Earths energy budget is higher than ever recorded in modern history. We have been in negative ENSO territory almost exclusively for the entire year so far. But SSTs are .25C on the weeklies. The three month average is .215C during an ENSO looking like that. UAH is 4th warmest on record so far. So is that what a negative/neutral ENSO correlates to now? GISS was .52F last year through June with a .51C July anomaly. It's .57C this year. We are now almost equal to last year at this time on the bottom graph. This is the time of year where Arctic inevitable torching gets much stronger. We had big anomalies last year in SON 68 71 68. Even a small ENSO shift like last year can have a big effect on global ssts. If we finished this year out like last year we finish with a 59. 6 of the 8 warmest years on GISS record are 59-61. It won't take much to move up a notch into those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Down another .005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Looks like the "Harbinger of dooms" prediction isn't going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The CFS daily anomalies have really spiked up in the latest update. Could be a trend or a blip. I still maintain that we should warm the anomaly up a bit before the month is over. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2012.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Looks like the "Harbinger of dooms" prediction isn't going to be close. Yeah, the predictions calling for 0.6+ for the anomaly this month are going to look comical when the final anomaly comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 The CFS daily anomalies have really spiked up in the latest update. Could be a trend or a blip. I still maintain that we should warm the anomaly up a bit before the month is over. http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2012.png There's no way it will stay where it is...it would be the coldest July since 2004 and possibly the 2nd coldest since 1997 on GISS. Its still going to come in cooler than I thought though going into the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 There's no way it will stay where it is...it would be the coldest July since 2004 and possibly the 2nd coldest since 1997 on GISS. Its still going to come in cooler than I thought though going into the month. Interestingly though, on the latest update it's spiked back down quite considerably. I do think the anomaly warms up some, but it's going to be pretty cool relative to the last 15 years IMO, and certainly cooler than June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 You have to remember: ENSO is leaning warm, and Friv leans warm. See the similarity? I am not sure what you are implying. I voted for .58C on GISS and .61C on NCDC for 2013. You voted for .51C on GISS and .54C on NCDC. In 2012 I voted at .53C for GISS it finished at .56C. In 2011 you voted for .38C for GISS and-.10C for UAH. The came in at .52C and .13C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I am not sure what you are implying. I voted for .58C on GISS and .61C on NCDC for 2013. You voted for .51C on GISS and .54C on NCDC. In 2012 I voted at .53C for GISS it finished at .56C. In 2011 you voted for .38C for GISS and-.10C for UAH. The came in at .52C and .13C. He's saying you have a massive, all-consuming warm bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 He's saying you have a massive, all-consuming warm bias. Yeah it really shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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