2013 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

That is getting close and has spread further East.

 

 

[Jonger]

Lot of people rooting for Global Warming on this thread. It's unsettling.

I don't agree with this sentiment. There is definitely mostly objective reasoning going on with many expecting the next few years to warm considerably from the recent warming hiatus and some downplaying the expanse of global warming with reasonable ideas.

I just started following the ARGO saga..... Not much warming going on in the ocean either. At some point this is going to have to come to a head or serious model reworking is going to be required.

[ORH_wxman]

I just started following the ARGO saga..... Not much warming going on in the ocean either. At some point this is going to have to come to a head or serious model reworking is going to be required.

 

 

The models are already pretty screwed up. Its just a question of by how much. They are going to devote more attention to it in IPCC 5th report if the leaked drafts are of any clue. The easy answer based on more recent literature is that they are too sensitive to CO2...at least in the transient climate response if not equilibrium sensitivity. There's of course other factors and debate about discrepancies.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I just started following the ARGO saga..... Not much warming going on in the ocean either. At some point this is going to have to come to a head or serious model reworking is going to be required.

 

The oceans are definitely accumulating heat. 

 

On top of that land ice loss globally essentially everywhere as dramatically accelerated since the 1990s and hasn't stopped this acceleration or rate of change. 

 

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover has also continued to trend towards larger deficit's and melting out earlier.  This is happening in-spite of increased snow fall during the Fall and Winter in the Northern Latitudes.  I think 2013 pretty much proves that direct forcing is still increasing.  

 

This also includes the average snow line in places where snow is year round on mountains. Has also gone up almost everywhere on Earth and still doing so.   

 

 

 

 

We have been in a cooling phase of the PDO for a couple decades.  But it didn't tank until the mid to late 2000s.  

 

Back when it dipped pretty low in 1999 to 2001 on GIS was something like .13C cooler than the 2011-current bottom dropping PDO phase.  And the current one is lower.  Not a perfect direct comparison.  But it's warmer today with more time for PDO influenced cooling. 

 

 

This has been aided by a drop in TSI.  This instantly will effect the Oceans especially in terms of energy uptake. It's hardly a coincidence that TSI fell off when the 0-700M OHC chart also leveled off.  There was also an extended period of NINO or Neutral positive conditions with ENSO before a big drop during the solar min. 

 

 

Then 2010 had a NINO and global temps were record highs or right at the record.  Still with far lower TSI.  Then MEI plummeted again and has only gone up to a weak nino for a small period, I don't think it's considered a NINO during 2012.

 

 

 

 

Aerosol's over Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific definitely have hurt heat uptake there. 

 

There are a lot of factor's at play.  But it's clear general forcing is increasing because of GHG's.  If models or projections need to be altered going forward I have no doubt they will be.

 

It doesn't take much to go up .20C from the current level the last decade to that.  It could happen in a 12-18 month span.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's early but another cool start.

 

 

[Jonger]

I just started following the ARGO saga..... Not much warming going on in the ocean either. At some point this is going to have to come to a head or serious model reworking is going to be required.

 

The oceans are definitely accumulating heat. 

 

On top of that land ice loss globally essentially everywhere as dramatically accelerated since the 1990s and hasn't stopped this acceleration or rate of change. 

 

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover has also continued to trend towards larger deficit's and melting out earlier.  This is happening in-spite of increased snow fall during the Fall and Winter in the Northern Latitudes.  I think 2013 pretty much proves that direct forcing is still increasing.  

 

This also includes the average snow line in places where snow is year round on mountains. Has also gone up almost everywhere on Earth and still doing so.   

 

 

 

 

We have been in a cooling phase of the PDO for a couple decades.  But it didn't tank until the mid to late 2000s.  

 

Back when it dipped pretty low in 1999 to 2001 on GIS was something like .13C cooler than the 2011-current bottom dropping PDO phase.  And the current one is lower.  Not a perfect direct comparison.  But it's warmer today with more time for PDO influenced cooling. 

 

 

This has been aided by a drop in TSI.  This instantly will effect the Oceans especially in terms of energy uptake. It's hardly a coincidence that TSI fell off when the 0-700M OHC chart also leveled off.  There was also an extended period of NINO or Neutral positive conditions with ENSO before a big drop during the solar min. 

 

 

Then 2010 had a NINO and global temps were record highs or right at the record.  Still with far lower TSI.  Then MEI plummeted again and has only gone up to a weak nino for a small period, I don't think it's considered a NINO during 2012.

 

 

 

 

Aerosol's over Eastern Asia and the Western Pacific definitely have hurt heat uptake there. 

 

There are a lot of factor's at play.  But it's clear general forcing is increasing because of GHG's.  If models or projections need to be altered going forward I have no doubt they will be.

 

It doesn't take much to go up .20C from the current level the last decade to that.  It could happen in a 12-18 month span.

Are those 0-700 and 0-2000M graphs Raw data from Argo or adjusted from somewhere else? That doesn't jive with what I have seen from raw outputs from Argo.

[dan11295]

I think it is more important to note there has not been any noticeable decline in temperatures despite the PDO tanking, decline in TSI/deep solar minimum, primarily neutral ENSO or la nina conditions (except for 2010), slight uptake in sulfates due to a few smaller eruptions and WPac/Asia aerosols. ALL of this serve as a negative forcing on temperature, although PDO is probably the least understood in this regard. As mentioned above, we know despite this extra heat is still going into the oceans and this certainly didn't stop the decline in Arctic Sea Ice or the decrease in late spring NA snow cover (even with the excess cover through April).

 

That said short term CO2 sensitivity may be slightly overestimated. Am not sure now much last IPCC accounted for multi-decadal natural effects in the latest report as I haven't read it. Also people tend to focus just on air temps too much I think, because it is more easily measured with hard numbers, and temperature is something everyone deals with on a daily basis, as opposed to increased ocean heat, melting sea ice/glaciers/ice caps, permafrost melt, etc.

[ORH_wxman]

I think it is more important to note there has not been any noticeable decline in temperatures despite the PDO tanking, decline in TSI/deep solar minimum, primarily neutral ENSO or la nina conditions (except for 2010), slight uptake in sulfates due to a few smaller eruptions and WPac/Asia aerosols. ALL of this serve as a negative forcing on temperature, although PDO is probably the least understood in this regard. As mentioned above, we know despite this extra heat is still going into the oceans and this certainly didn't stop the decline in Arctic Sea Ice or the decrease in late spring NA snow cover (even with the excess cover through April).

 

That said short term CO2 sensitivity may be slightly overestimated. Am not sure now much last IPCC accounted for multi-decadal natural effects in the latest report as I haven't read it. Also people tend to focus just on air temps too much I think, because it is more easily measured with hard numbers, and temperature is something everyone deals with on a daily basis, as opposed to increased ocean heat, melting sea ice/glaciers/ice caps, permafrost melt, etc.

 

 

Glacier melt/permafrost is only good for a longer term temperature proxy. They don't tell us much about anything on shorter time scales. They can tell us that we are definitely warmer than 50-100 years ago...but they say very little about global temperatures in the past 1-2 decades. Therefore, if we are trying to have more precise analysis, then using proxies like that is not the way to go. Arctic sea ice is another good example...it has diminished rapidly in the past decade...yet we know global temperatures have not risen in that time. They have risen in the arctic...but globally this has been offset in other regions such as the southern polar regions where significant cooling has occurred.

 

The IPCC basically discounted natural ocean oscillations on scales of more then a few years in the AR4 report. From the leaks of the AR5 drafts, it appears they are going to finally address them a bit more. The problem is that GCMs are so bad at reproducing past ocean oscillations that there is no reason to think they will be useful for future projections in ocean oscillations on a decadal time scale. This is a tough spot for the IPCC since they do put an awful lot of faith in their GCMs. But at least from what I have seen in the drafts, they are finally going to address this obvious discrepancy more closely in AR5. There is virtually zero chance their AR4 models will be anywhere close to projections by 2030...and probably 2050 as well...so they obviously have some work to do on them. The AR5 models have been floating around in places, but I haven't looked at them that closely as the AR4 models the past year or two. Regardless, it will be interesting to read their full report when they finally publish the final draft next year.

[nzucker]

I think it is more important to note there has not been any noticeable decline in temperatures despite the PDO tanking, decline in TSI/deep solar minimum, primarily neutral ENSO or la nina conditions (except for 2010), slight uptake in sulfates due to a few smaller eruptions and WPac/Asia aerosols. ALL of this serve as a negative forcing on temperature, although PDO is probably the least understood in this regard. As mentioned above, we know despite this extra heat is still going into the oceans and this certainly didn't stop the decline in Arctic Sea Ice or the decrease in late spring NA snow cover (even with the excess cover through April).

 

That said short term CO2 sensitivity may be slightly overestimated. Am not sure now much last IPCC accounted for multi-decadal natural effects in the latest report as I haven't read it. Also people tend to focus just on air temps too much I think, because it is more easily measured with hard numbers, and temperature is something everyone deals with on a daily basis, as opposed to increased ocean heat, melting sea ice/glaciers/ice caps, permafrost melt, etc.

The rate of warming has slowed, though....in the 90s we were warming close to .2C/decade, and now the warmest sources are showing only around .1C/decade. I believe the average of UAH and RSS for the last 10 years shows a warming of .07C/decade, which is the opposite from what was expected in terms of accelerating warming. I'm not saying we've cooled either, and I'm not a denier by any means, but I think the warmth has plateaued, still near record levels, but not going anywhere fast. 

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like we've seen at least a temporary downturn on weatherbell maps for July..monthly is down to about -0.08C with the latest instant temp of roughly -.15C. If this runs for about another 5 days, then I'll think its very likely we finish cooler than June.

 

 

BTW, UAH or RSS still not out for June...which is a bit long for them. Esp UAH, which usually comes out within the first 5 days of the month. GISS usually isn't out until mid-month and NCDC often several days later. Hadcrut4 is so delayed these days usually by over a month.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global SST jumped back up.  Enso is still cool.  But the big ones are Africa, Russia, the South Central United States down to Enso.  The central Atlantic is cool and normally isn't that cool.  Antarctica has that big cold spot that is a pretty damn cold anomaly even if it's a relatively small region.  GIS is cold too.

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

Looks like we've seen at least a temporary downturn on weatherbell maps for July..monthly is down to about -0.08C with the latest instant temp of roughly -.15C. If this runs for about another 5 days, then I'll think its very likely we finish cooler than June.

 

 

BTW, UAH or RSS still not out for June...which is a bit long for them. Esp UAH, which usually comes out within the first 5 days of the month. GISS usually isn't out until mid-month and NCDC often several days later. Hadcrut4 is so delayed these days usually by over a month.

UAH finally out...

 

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS

2012 1 -0.145 -0.088 -0.203 -0.245

2012 2 -0.140 -0.016 -0.263 -0.326

2012 3 +0.033 +0.064 +0.002 -0.238

2012 4 +0.230 +0.346 +0.114 -0.251

2012 5 +0.178 +0.338 +0.018 -0.102

2012 6 +0.244 +0.378 +0.111 -0.016

2012 7 +0.149 +0.263 +0.035 +0.146

2012 8 +0.210 +0.195 +0.225 +0.069

2012 9 +0.369 +0.376 +0.361 +0.174

2012 10 +0.367 +0.326 +0.409 +0.155

2012 11 +0.305 +0.319 +0.292 +0.209

2012 12 +0.229 +0.153 +0.305 +0.199

2013 1 +0.497 +0.512 +0.481 +0.387

2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.034 +0.195

2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.068 +0.243

2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165

2013 5 +0.083 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112

2013 6 +0.298 +0.337 +0.259 +0.221

 

Edit:.....RSS out too:

 

 2012  1   -0.062   -0.117   -0.054   -0.007    0.631   -0.552    1.592   -0.079   -0.044

2012  2   -0.124   -0.162   -0.027   -0.184    1.206   -0.191    0.630   -0.075   -0.175

2012  3    0.071   -0.126    0.321    0.028   -0.088    0.112    3.297    0.139   -0.001

2012  4    0.330   -0.125    0.915    0.223    1.422   -0.046    1.750    0.531    0.119

2012  5    0.230   -0.048    0.847   -0.112    1.339   -0.241    1.383    0.550   -0.105

2012  6    0.336   -0.027    0.831    0.222    1.829   -0.087    1.203    0.534    0.129

2012  7    0.257    0.175    0.599   -0.014    0.793   -0.621    1.439    0.432    0.074

2012  8    0.254    0.125    0.488    0.150    0.381    0.238    0.718    0.338    0.165

2012  9    0.382    0.205    0.619    0.332    1.031   -0.009    0.278    0.450    0.311

2012 10    0.293    0.222    0.403    0.257    1.020    0.219   -0.578    0.317    0.268

2012 11    0.194    0.311    0.209    0.044    1.254    0.420    0.341    0.232    0.155

2012 12    0.100    0.268   -0.148    0.173    0.558    0.376    0.084   -0.002    0.206

2013  1    0.441    0.489    0.361    0.472    0.448    0.746    0.900    0.423    0.460

2013  2    0.194    0.306    0.200    0.059   -0.269   -0.125   -0.831    0.248    0.138

2013  3    0.204    0.295    0.268    0.033   -0.270   -0.606   -0.994    0.290    0.115

2013  4    0.219    0.238    0.240    0.173    0.466    0.334   -0.550    0.244    0.192

2013  5    0.139    0.126    0.409   -0.136    0.511   -0.551    0.191    0.323   -0.054

2013  6    0.291    0.139    0.538    0.201    1.107   -0.493    0.721    0.381    0.198

 

[ORH_wxman]

Those are pretty solid jumps...esp for UAH. I would have expected slightly cooler, but its hard to gauge the satellites since they aren't measuring the surface and we only have day to day surface data and not satellite data.

[skierinvermont]

I am finding it hard to understand neither the CFSv2 nor the CPC are predicting anything less than a borderline weak El Nino given the increasingly warm subsurface. The first chart shows how warm waters dominate even at very shallow depths and are quickly rising to the surface. This latest outbreak is considerably stronger than the warm push in February and March, stronger than the warm push last November, and beginning to rival the strength of the warm push in August and September which brought us to a peak trimonthly of +.6 and three months of global temperatures above +.68C. 

 

For this reason I expect the trimonthly to peak at at least +.4C with 80% confidence. I see a 50% chance of a trimonthly peak of +.8 or higher. 

 

I also expect that GISS will average +.66C (+/-.05) for August September and October. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

I am finding it hard to understand neither the CFSv2 nor the CPC are predicting anything less than a borderline weak El Nino given the increasingly warm subsurface. The first chart shows how warm waters dominate even at very shallow depths and are quickly rising to the surface. This latest outbreak is considerably stronger than the warm push in February and March, stronger than the warm push last November, and beginning to rival the strength of the warm push in August and September which brought us to a peak trimonthly of +.6 and three months of global temperatures above +.68C. 

 

For this reason I expect the trimonthly to peak at at least +.4C with 80% confidence. I see a 50% chance of a trimonthly peak of +.8 or higher. 

 

I also expect that GISS will average +.66C (+/-.05) for August September and October. 

 

 

 

 

Last summer's was more impressive (I think we're barely half of what those anomalies were) and it still didn't produce even a weak Nino...though it did get the 3.4 monthly value as high as 0.75C or so in August I think it was. The trade winds are not forecasted to subside which I think is a big part of it..in fact they are forecasted to increase their easterly anomaly. The SOI just refuses to go solidly negative which means that even if some of that subsurface warmth surfaces, it gets chewed up quite quickly. So we see transient response in the surface Nino anomalies but they can't get a good consistent feed. Thats what the models seem to be forecasting.

 

If we can get the easterly anomalies to weaken, then the Nino will be allowed to develop more.

[skierinvermont]

Last summer's was more impressive (I think we're barely half of what those anomalies were) and it still didn't produce even a weak Nino...though it did get the 3.4 monthly value as high as 0.75C or so in August I think it was. The trade winds are not forecasted to subside which I think is a big part of it..in fact they are forecasted to increase their easterly anomaly. The SOI just refuses to go solidly negative which means that even if some of that subsurface warmth surfaces, it gets chewed up quite quickly. So we see transient response in the surface Nino anomalies but they can't get a good consistent feed. Thats what the models seem to be forecasting.

 

If we can get the easterly anomalies to weaken, then the Nino will be allowed to develop more.

 

We are currently at +.5 for basin upper OHC and last summer/fall peaked at +.8, but the current episode is still rising as the +2-3C anomalies at 100m rise into the upper OHC area which I think is defined as 50 or 75m. OHC in that layer is rising quickly and that won't stop yet.

 

That's why I'm expecting a borderline weak Nino over the next 4 months, similar to last late summer/fall. Also similar temperatures.

[ORH_wxman]

We are currently at +.5 for basin upper OHC and last summer/fall peaked at +.8, but the current episode is still rising as the +2-3C anomalies at 100m rise into the upper OHC area which I think is defined as 50 or 75m. OHC in that layer is rising quickly and that won't stop yet.

 

 

Yes, I agree its not gonna stop yet. Its building and I'm anxious to see what it does. I hope a weak Nino develops because its FANTASTIC for us in SNE for winter, but Im skeptical because of the SOI and trade winds. If the SOI stays negative or near neutral, its going to cause the subsurface warmth to cool as it rises because of the cold anomalies from Nino 1+2 going west along the top layer and diluting the warm anomalies as they rise....so we'll see some uptick, but it will be less impressive than usual in a developing Nino. You'll see a +2C subsurface get diluted in half or worse as it rises and mixes with the thin layer of colder water moving west from South America because of the damn -SOI and easterly winds.

 

I'm not sure how this plays out yet, but the SOI forecasts do not look promising for fueling those subsurface anomalies as they rise. We'll have to see if that changes as we go into August...right now models are continuing the easterly anomalies (and even stengthening them) which is bad for realizing that subsurface warmth. It will get chewed apart.

[ORH_wxman]

As for July 2013 temps, I'm almost ready to call off any chance going warmer than June....we have been nose diving on the weatherbell maps....monthly anomaly to -0.10C and probably going more negative in the next 24 hours before any move up at the minimum....we'll need to see a sharp rise which can happen of course...but needs to happen quick.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Andrew, I suggest reading the 2002 (I think thats the year) paper on ENSO by Trenberth et al...I think it has some great info on subsurface vs surface relationships and relates the SOI in it. I don't have the paper link at my fingertips, but I remember reading it about a year ago. I may think Trenthberth is a bit of loudmouth on AGW, but he did some great research in the 1990s and early 2000s on how it works.

 

The gist I got from it was that subsurface is a great tool, but it has limitations and can be enhanced or totally foiled by the trade winds. The research at the time was uncertain on the Pacific oscillations WRT trade winds...they hinted there was something there but couldn't quantify it. Meaning that some regimes tended to enhance the Nino and others did the opposite. I'll have to see if I can find it. Google scholar probably can with a little bit of filter.

 

This is the reason that I don't entirely trust subsruface as the main measure to predict ENSO. SOI still is a very useful tool in tandem.

[The_Global_Warmer]

So UAH is now averaging .23C for 2013. Here is the all time list. This would put 2013 at 4th warmest on the UAH record.

 

I would say it's most likely to finish below 2005 and above 2012.  I would really even say below 2003 is not very likely. 

 

And even though it's only .03 from 2005.  It's more anomalous than something lower or where it is now.  So it would be tough for the next 6 months to average .295 or higher to break 2005. 

 

So that leaves 4th-7th on UAH for most likely spots. 

 

2012 was saved big time by two months.  If we remove January and February of 2012 and replace it with .10C for each month.  2012 goes to .204C.  Which would be slightly above 2007 for 6th.  If we replaced them with what 2013 has done so far we get .241C and 4th. 

 

If you took January of 2013 out and replaced it with .10C 2013 would drop to .163C.  That is weighted because we have only seen 6 months.  But shows how much a couple months can make the year. 

 

 

1979 through 2012, ranked from warmest to coolest:
1. 1998 0.419
2. 2010 0.394
3. 2005 0.260
4. 2002 0.218
5. 2009 0.218
6. 2007 0.202
7. 2003 0.187
8. 2006 0.186
9. 2012 0.161
10. 2011 0.130
11. 2004 0.108
12. 2001 0.107
13. 1991 0.020
14. 1987 0.013
15. 1995 0.013
16. 1988 0.012
17. 1980 -0.008
18. 2008 -0.009
19. 1990 -0.022
20. 1981 -0.045
21. 1997 -0.049
22. 1999 -0.056
23. 1983 -0.061
24. 2000 -0.061
25. 1996 -0.076
26. 1994 -0.108
27. 1979 -0.170
28. 1989 -0.207
29. 1986 -0.244
30. 1993 -0.245
31. 1982 -0.250
32. 1992 -0.289
33. 1985 -0.309
34. 1984 -0.353

[The_Global_Warmer]

Let's get the July party started.  One day in.  .  Anyways more than that since it's to early to talk about the anomaly's.  We can see where warm and cold are starting.  GIS is cool.  The south central/Eastern conus is cool.  West/Canada warm..  Central Russia Cool to cold.  Warm around it, China.  Australia and most of Euro/Africa cool.  ENSO, slightly cool.

 

So let's all be brave and make blind predictions for the month.

 

GISS:   .64

UAH:    .21

CFS:    .10

 

 

The biggest question mark is if the heat from Skier's graphs he posted breaks out over the Eastern Pacific.

 

 

 

Currently for July to reach my .10C prediction it will have to put up .20C the rest of the way.  I have serious doubts about that.  Even though I do think the daily trend is about to flip to positive by tomorrow or the 12th.     

 

Obviously the Arctic is going to warm up.  But Russia is also expected to warm up.  So is GIS.  But North towards central Canada is expected to cool down quite a bit.  The Eastern third of the US.  The central a quick cool hit then more heat moving back in.  Expecially Northern central US.

 

Interestingly the PNA is negative.  Both the GFS and Euro try to tank it with a massive HP over the North Pacific.  This would obviously warm ssts up there.  So who gets the cooler end of that stick? 

 

 

 

 

The smart thing would be to knock the CFS down a bit.  I will give it a few days and see how it plays out before I do that.

[Jonger]

That's a serious cold anomaly north of Antarctica, that's probably responsible for a lot of the negative global anomaly.

[LakeEffectKing]

That's a serious cold anomaly north of Antarctica, that's probably responsible for a lot of the negative global anomaly.

Remember, it's not that big of an area.....the projection map makes it MUCH larger relative to the lower latitudes.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Guess we are soon to find out.

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Going off of the CFS daily anomalies and the anomaly so far in the month, the July anomaly is looking pretty cool. I may even be too warm with my forecasted anomaly.

[Snow_Miser]

Updated today:

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2012.png

[Snow_Miser]

FWIW July 2012 on the CFS finished with a +0.052 anomaly.

[ORH_wxman]

Going off of the CFS daily anomalies and the anomaly so far in the month, the July anomaly is looking pretty cool. I may even be too warm with my forecasted anomaly.

 

 

Yeah over a third into the month now...we're going to need to see an absolute torch (probably the rest of the month averaging about +0.15C) to end up warmer than June on the weatherbell maps.

[ORH_wxman]

Prelim June GISS: +0.67C. That's pretty high and the 2nd warmest June on record for GISS.

 

May 2013 was revised downward to +0.55C.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like it was revised to +0.50C

 

 

GISS also revised April downward again to +0.47C.

 

 

Its a little bit annoying how GISS does this, which means you have to keep an eye on their anomalies because the prelim number can be off by several hundreths from the final. The original for April 2013 was +0.51C.