2013 Global Temperatures

[Snow_Miser]

I've been using this global temperature anomaly map and it uses the same base period as the Weatherbell maps (1981-2010). Why is there such a large difference between the anomalies?

 

 

The CFS generally has a cool bias, but this looks way too warm for a 1981-2010 baseline. It would be interesting to compare the +0.57 anomaly to the GISS anomaly that comes out later.

[ORH_wxman]

 

I've been using this global temperature anomaly map and it uses the same base period as the Weatherbell maps (1981-2010). Why is there such a large difference between the anomalies?

 

CFS based map has a cold bias of about 0.15C based on the differences it has with GISS. The difference in base period for 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 is about 0.40C on GISS, but the CFS is consistently 0.55C or so colder, leaving a residual 0.15C cold bias.

[skierinvermont]

CFS is cold biased by about .15C, but that map looks warm biased by about .4C. 

 

The truth is that on a 1981-2010 baseline last month had an anomaly around .2C.

[Jonger]

CFS is cold biased by about .15C, but that map looks warm biased by about .4C. 

 

The truth is that on a 1981-2010 baseline last month had an anomaly around .2C.

 

All maps just reflect the position of the poster who trots them out.

[skierinvermont]

All maps just reflect the position of the poster who trots them out.

 

Another excellent denier tactic. Create enough confusion so that nobody knows what the truth is and then you can just believe whatever suits you best. I hope this was just a flippant half-serious comment and not what you really believe. 

 

GISS, HadCRUT4, NCDC, and BEST are carefully constructed methods to accurately measure long-term trends in global temperature. The CFS and the above chart are not.

 

Maps or data from GISS, HadCRUT4, NCDC, and BEST do not simply represent the position of the poster who trots them out. They represent real measured trends in global temperature which has risen ~1C since the cool period during late 19th century. 

[skierinvermont]

Heat continuing to build in the ENSO subsurface. Regardless of what happens at the surface, this is a large amount of heat that will be released to the atmosphere. 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I can't wait to line up the NODC OHC subsurface charts to see how much of an impact it has there.  For the most part during the last few years this region has been a large region of below normal OHC.  It's down to 700M.  But it should still reflect the warming.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Let's get the July party started.  One day in.  .  Anyways more than that since it's to early to talk about the anomaly's.  We can see where warm and cold are starting.  GIS is cool.  The south central/Eastern conus is cool.  West/Canada warm..  Central Russia Cool to cold.  Warm around it, China.  Australia and most of Euro/Africa cool.  ENSO, slightly cool.

 

So let's all be brave and make blind predictions for the month.

 

GISS:   .64

UAH:    .21

CFS:    .10

 

 

 

 

 

 

The biggest question mark is if the heat from Skier's graphs he posted breaks out over the Eastern Pacific.

[Snow_Miser]

Blind predictions are fun, but they really are pure guesswork.

The month is starting off cool, but that doesn't mean that CFS won't finish with a positive anomaly, as we saw with June's +0.057 anomaly on the CFS.

I'll go with +0.56 for GISS +0.17 for UAH and 0.00 for the CFS. This is not based on any meteorological reasoning. Just a guess.

[skierinvermont]

CFS +.15

GISS +.68

 

I think the unusual cold pattern in the Arctic is likely to break down at some point and the warm OHC in the ENSO region is likely to begin to surface.

[nzucker]

CFS +.15

GISS +.68

I think the unusual cold pattern in the Arctic is likely to break down at some point and the warm OHC in the ENSO region is likely to begin to surface.

The PAC/Beaufort cold spell might end but I think the Atlantic side around Greenland stays chilly. Antarctica/Southern Ocean down there is a wildcard as it often seems to explain cooler global anomalies. Still not thinking this month is a total torch in the arctic either.

[tacoman25]

CFS +.15

GISS +.68

 

I think the unusual cold pattern in the Arctic is likely to break down at some point and the warm OHC in the ENSO region is likely to begin to surface.

 

That would be the second warmest July on record for GISS.

[Snow_Miser]

That would be the second warmest July on record for GISS.

 

Yeah, Skier's prediction is way too warm. Given that there is generally a lag between the ENSO state and temperatures, even assuming the subsurface warmth surfaces, his forecast doesn't make much sense.

[skierinvermont]

That would be the second warmest July on record for GISS.

 

We hit .68 or higher (highest .72) in 4 months last year. That includes a +.70 in May when the ONI was -.2. This month's ONI is likely to be higher than that and primarily driven by subsurface warmth reaching the surface and dissipating. That's AGW for you. We witness near record high temperatures at the slightest sign of Nino. Any moderate or strong Nino brings actual record temperatures.

 

The relative coolness of the start of this year driven in part by Nina like conditions and by persistent cool in the arctic are making some of you forget what happens when the arctic torches and we get some warmth from ENSO. Now the cold in the arctic could persist but it appears to be weakening. 

[nzucker]

We hit .68 or higher (highest .72) in 4 months last year. That includes a +.70 in May when the ONI was -.2. This month's ONI is likely to be higher than that and primarily driven by subsurface warmth reaching the surface and dissipating. That's AGW for you. We witness near record high temperatures at the slightest sign of Nino. Any moderate or strong Nino brings actual record temperatures.

The relative coolness of the start of this year driven in part by Nina like conditions and by persistent cool in the arctic are making some of you forget what happens when the arctic torches and we get some warmth from ENSO. Now the cold in the arctic could persist but it appears to be weakening.

I don't see a lot of warming SSTs from ENSO. The tropical pacific is cooler than normal with the Indian Ocean also cooling from a couple months ago.

I also think models have trended away from an arctic torch... The GFS actually keeps much of Northeast Canada below 0C 850s for the next week while the Beaufort remains chilly. The Kara is mild but the central arctic and much of Canada are actually below average with the freezing line straddling Hudson Bay in mid July.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This was todays 12z GFS OP:

 

[skierinvermont]

I don't see a lot of warming SSTs from ENSO. The tropical pacific is cooler than normal with the Indian Ocean also cooling from a couple months ago.

I also think models have trended away from an arctic torch... The GFS actually keeps much of Northeast Canada below 0C 850s for the next week while the Beaufort remains chilly. The Kara is mild but the central arctic and much of Canada are actually below average with the freezing line straddling Hudson Bay in mid July.

 

Region 3.4 has risen from -.4 to -.1 in the last 5 weeks and region 3 has warmed from -1.0 to -.6 and both are likely to continue rising further with the subsurface warmth. And regardless of SSTs I believe subsurface warmth leads to global warming even if we don't see SSTs rise that much. We saw that 2 or 3 summers ago with some warm global temperatures but a neutral ENSO. 

[ORH_wxman]

Global SSTs aren't very high in comparison to the past 12 months, so I'm not expecting anyting that high for the global sfc temp anomalies for the month of July. Of course in any one month, some weird variances can happen, so nothing should be ruled out, but given the SST data as of the last week of June, its not impressive.

[tacoman25]

We hit .68 or higher (highest .72) in 4 months last year. That includes a +.70 in May when the ONI was -.2. This month's ONI is likely to be higher than that and primarily driven by subsurface warmth reaching the surface and dissipating. That's AGW for you. We witness near record high temperatures at the slightest sign of Nino. Any moderate or strong Nino brings actual record temperatures.

 

The relative coolness of the start of this year driven in part by Nina like conditions and by persistent cool in the arctic are making some of you forget what happens when the arctic torches and we get some warmth from ENSO. Now the cold in the arctic could persist but it appears to be weakening. 

 

Well, when applied to GISS/NCDC, yes. Other sources have not hit record high temperatures as easily. Of course, the last record warm or near record warm year was 2010, which was due to a strong Nino.

 

However, I was simply pointing out that your call was not just warm, but the second warmest in the GISS records for July. You already explained your reasoning, no need to repeat it over and over.

[AvantHiatus]

Well, when applied to GISS/NCDC, yes. Other sources have not hit record high temperatures as easily. Of course, the last record warm or near record warm year was 2010, which was due to a strong Nino.

 

However, I was simply pointing out that your call was not just warm, but the second warmest in the GISS records for July. You already explained your reasoning, no need to repeat it over and over.

Nonetheless, 1998 makes 2010 look like a walk in the park in regards to el nino warming. Something to consider as we go forward, trying to find a decent ENSO graph that visualizes how la nina's are becoming progressively warmer, if ever so slightly.

 

[tacoman25]

Nonetheless, 1998 makes 2010 look like a walk in the park in regards to el nino warming. Something to consider as we go forward, trying to find a decent ENSO graph that visualizes how la nina's are becoming progressively warmer, if ever so slightly.

 

 

2005-06 was a weak La Nina. The last Nina we've had that was as inversely strong as the 2009-10 El Nino (which peaked at +1.6 with two trimonthlies) was the 1999-00 La Nina (which peaked at -1.7). 

 

In other words, none of the recent La Ninas we've witnessed have been as strong as the 2009-10 El Nino.

[AvantHiatus]

2005-06 was a weak La Nina. The last Nina we've had that was as inversely strong as the 2009-10 El Nino (which peaked at +1.6 with two trimonthlies) was the 1999-00 La Nina (which peaked at -1.7). 

 

In other words, none of the recent La Ninas we've witnessed have been as strong as the 2009-10 El Nino.

I see your logic here. It seems the trend would still remain with weak la nina's becoming warmer than the previous phase unless i'm missing something.

[tacoman25]

I see your logic here. It seems the trend would still remain with weak la nina's becoming warmer than the previous phase unless i'm missing something.

 

Yeah, I mean Ninas in the 2000s were still a bit warmer than Ninas we saw in the 1990s. But overall, when ENSO-corrections are applied, the trend for the past ten years is fairly flat for global temps. .08-.12/decade rise at the most (depending on which global temp source you prefer). Definitely slower rise than what we saw from the 1980s to 1990s.

[bluewave]

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.8039.pdf

 

In summary, we propose a climate-network approach to forecast El Niño-episodes about one year ahead. Our approach is based on the dynamic fluctuations of the teleconnections (links in the network) between grid points in the El Niño-basin and the rest of the Pacific. The strengths of the links are obtained from the cross-correlations between the observed sea-surface-level air temperatures in the grid points. We have shown explicitly that our method outperforms existing methods in predicting El Niño-events at least 6-12 months in advance. In contrast to the algorithms using model data, our method is exclusively based on instrumental accounts which are easily accessible. Thus the results of this study can be straightforwardly reproduced.

We did not aim to forecast La Nina events, where the NINO3.4 index is below -0.5°C for more than 5 months. In a trivial forecast, one predicts that an El Nino event will be followed by a La Nina event in the next year. This simple forecast has, in the considered time window between 1950 and 2012, a hit rate of 0.73 and a false alarm rate of 0.17. An even better forecast of La Nina events using the climate network requires an additional precursor to be found and is beyond the scope of this Letter.

Altogether, our findings indicate that El Niño is a cooperative phenomenon where the teleconnections between the El Niño-basin and the rest of the Pacific tend to build up in the calendar year before an event. For characterizing the teleconnections we have used a univariate model where only one climate variable (atmospheric temperature) has been used. In the future, we plan to extend this model to the multivariate case where other climate variables (pressure, wind speed etc) are taken into account as well.

Finally, we would like to note that our algorithm (see Fig. 2b) did correctly predict the absence of an El Niño- event in 2012. This forecast was made in 2011 already, whereas conventional approaches kept on predicting the warming occurrence far into the year 2012 [41].

[ORH_wxman]

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1304/1304.8039.pdf

 

In summary, we propose a climate-network approach to forecast El Niño-episodes about one year ahead. Our approach is based on the dynamic fluctuations of the teleconnections (links in the network) between grid points in the El Niño-basin and the rest of the Pacific. The strengths of the links are obtained from the cross-correlations between the observed sea-surface-level air temperatures in the grid points. We have shown explicitly that our method outperforms existing methods in predicting El Niño-events at least 6-12 months in advance. In contrast to the algorithms using model data, our method is exclusively based on instrumental accounts which are easily accessible. Thus the results of this study can be straightforwardly reproduced.

We did not aim to forecast La Nina events, where the NINO3.4 index is below -0.5°C for more than 5 months. In a trivial forecast, one predicts that an El Nino event will be followed by a La Nina event in the next year. This simple forecast has, in the considered time window between 1950 and 2012, a hit rate of 0.73 and a false alarm rate of 0.17. An even better forecast of La Nina events using the climate network requires an additional precursor to be found and is beyond the scope of this Letter.

Altogether, our findings indicate that El Niño is a cooperative phenomenon where the teleconnections between the El Niño-basin and the rest of the Pacific tend to build up in the calendar year before an event. For characterizing the teleconnections we have used a univariate model where only one climate variable (atmospheric temperature) has been used. In the future, we plan to extend this model to the multivariate case where other climate variables (pressure, wind speed etc) are taken into account as well.

Finally, we would like to note that our algorithm (see Fig. 2b) did correctly predict the absence of an El Niño- event in 2012. This forecast was made in 2011 already, whereas conventional approaches kept on predicting the warming occurrence far into the year 2012 [41].

 

 

So what are they forecasting for 2013?

 

 

That would be interesting.

[bluewave]

So what are they forecasting for 2013?

 

 

That would be interesting.

 

Unfortunately, they didn't give a forecast in the press release.

 

http://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/durchbruch-fuer-el-nino-vorhersage

 

For characterizing the teleconnections we have used a univariate model where only one climate variable (atmospheric temperature) has been used.

 

 

The first half of 2012 was much cooler over the Tropical  Pacific than in earlier 

years preceding an El Nino. I made a composite of the six month periods before 

earlier El Nino events going back to 1980. But it would be nice to see their exact 

formula to know sure.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Five days in the books for July.  And global temps have been pretty steady right around the current anomaly so far.

 

We know the temps in East central Russia are progged to warm with the big Hp blowing around day 3 onward. 

 

South Central Greenland is going to warm up substantially during the next week. 

 

Heat is expected to expand East over the CONUS slowly will erode the below normal temps slowly. 

 

Africa look to stay cool.  Australia as wel.  The arctic will obviously warm up considerably. 

 

And enso hasn't budge much this first week.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Five days in the books for July. And global temps have been pretty steady right around the current anomaly so far.

We know the temps in East central Russia are progged to warm with the big Hp blowing around day 3 onward.

South Central Greenland is going to warm up substantially during the next week.

Heat is expected to expand East over the CONUS slowly will erode the below normal temps slowly.

Africa look to stay cool. Australia as wel. The arctic will obviously warm up considerably.

And enso hasn't budge much this first week.

We won't get much of an idea where this month will finish until about half of the month is logged in. Things can still change dramatically, like we saw with June at this stage.

[Jesse]

Lot of people rooting for Global Warming on this thread. It's unsettling.

[AvantHiatus]

Lot of people rooting for Global Warming on this thread. It's unsettling.

I don't agree with this sentiment. There is definitely mostly objective reasoning going on with many expecting the next few years to warm considerably from the recent warming hiatus and some downplaying the expanse of global warming with reasonable ideas.