2013 Global Temperatures

[Snow_Miser]

Is there a rough timeframe for when the GISS/NCDC/HadCruT4 temperature anomalies come out for May?

[Snow_Miser]

JMA Nino forecast:

 

[Snow_Miser]

WeatherBell maps continue to warm. Now -0.02 Degrees C for the month.

[ORH_wxman]

Is there a rough timeframe for when the GISS/NCDC/HadCruT4 temperature anomalies come out for May?

 

GISS came out around the 12th or 13th last month...not out yet this month. Sometimes it can take as long as the 20th though.

[Snow_Miser]

GISS came out around the 12th or 13th last month...not out yet this month. Sometimes it can take as long as the 20th though.

 

Thanks Will. I do remember last month coming out fairly early.

[skierinvermont]

I'm not really convinced we get to a weak El Nino...the CFS was predicting El Nino conditions by mid summer a few months ago and the subsurface warming back then was pushed westward instead of manifesting itself on the surface.

 

It will most likely be El Nino or neutral, but I'd favor neutral right now. I'd like to see the Euro SIPS more aggressive anda sign of more consistent westerly bursts for El Nino to develop.

 

The warmest subsurface is still west, yes. But if you look at the chart above, 1C anomalies now spread across 80% of the equator and they are spreading east. Only the eastern 20% still has negative anomalies. 

[nzucker]

The warmest subsurface is still west, yes. But if you look at the chart above, 1C anomalies now spread across 80% of the equator and they are spreading east. Only the eastern 20% still has negative anomalies. 

Besides the moderation of the -PDO, the surface is still quite Niña-like with those cold waters surfacing near Peru and warmer waters towards Indonesia, as well as the fact that the Indian Ocean has cooled some in the last few months, though that's reversed a bit lately. I think it will take a while for the subsurface warmth to erode what's happened at the surface, so I'm definitely favoring neutral or cold neutral ENSO for Winter 13-14:

[Snow_Miser]

Seems like the increase is finally slowing some. Now -0.012 up from -0.019 yesterday.

[ORH_wxman]

Prelim GISS for May:

 

+0.56C

 

 

A bit higher than I expected as it was +0.60C above the weatherbell maps (which were -0.04C like April). That's on the high end of their range, but still within historical values. As usual, it could be revised as last month's value was revised down 0.01C just a few days later.

[Snow_Miser]

10th Warmest May on the Preliminary GISS figures.

[Snow_Miser]

GISS through the year is now +0.56 Degrees C, which is right in between 2011 and 2012.

[Jonger]

Prelim GISS for May:

 

+0.56C

 

 

A bit higher than I expected as it was +0.60C above the weatherbell maps (which were -0.04C like April). That's on the high end of their range, but still within historical values. As usual, it could be revised as last month's value was revised down 0.01C just a few days later.

Those use the same base period?

[skierinvermont]

Those use the same base period?

 

The weatherbell maps, which are based off the CFSv2, don't really have a base period since it isn't really measuring global temperature and doesn't show any long-term warming. It just gives us an idea of the short term swings in temperature which, with the proper adjustment (add ~.5C) allows one to predict what the other sources will show. 

 

I think it might say the base is 1981-2010 but that is meaningless given it doesn't actually measure global temperature and doesn't have the capacity to detect long-term temperature warming. 

[Jesse]

10th Warmest May on the Preliminary GISS figures.

 

Runaway warming!!

[AvantHiatus]

Runaway warming!!

Indeed, if something like this occurs we would be reaching 1998, 2005, 2010 territory.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Indeed, if something like this occurs we would be reaching 1998, 2005, 2010 territory.

 

 

The mean of that is barely weak El Nino territory. I highly doubt we'd challenge record global temps seriously with that. We'd need at least a solid moderate to strong.

[AvantHiatus]

The mean of that is barely weak El Nino territory. I highly doubt we'd challenge record global temps seriously with that. We'd need at least a solid moderate to strong.

Because of increased OHC, you don't need as much warming in the ENSO regions to reach historical record temperatures.

 

Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)

 

2010

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.1

-0.4

-0.9

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

2011

-1.4

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

2012

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.2

-0.3

2013

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

 

 

As you can see, there has not been a value of 0.7 or higher since early 2010; partially explaining the weakness of global surface temperatures.

[ORH_wxman]

Because of increased OHC, you don't need as much warming in the ENSO regions to reach historical record temperatures.

 

Oceanic Nino Index (ONI)

 

2010

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.1

-0.4

-0.9

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

2011

-1.4

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

2012

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.2

-0.3

2013

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

 

 

As you can see, there has not been a value of 0.7 or higher since early 2010; partially explaining the weakness of global surface temperatures.

 

 

None of that proves a weak El Nino would produce the same temps as 2010 which was a strong El Nino.

[AvantHiatus]

None of that proves a weak El Nino would produce the same temps as 2010 which was a strong El Nino.

Will be interesting to see if this hypothesis holds any water in the next few years. In science, nothing is ever 100 % provable or predictable. Eventually we will start seeing values near 1.0c this decade if most AGW projections are accurate.

[ORH_wxman]

Seems like the increase is finally slowing some. Now -0.012 up from -0.019 yesterday.

 

 

Looks like the June spike is over...at least for now. Temps have slipped back to slightly negative anomalies on the graph and we have halted around -0.01C for the month. Could go either way at this point.

[skierinvermont]

The mean of that is barely weak El Nino territory. I highly doubt we'd challenge record global temps seriously with that. We'd need at least a solid moderate to strong.

 

I don't think so. The solar cycle is higher than in 2010, we have 3 more years of CO2, and 2010 was only a borderline mod/strong and yet was the warmest year (depending on source). I would say a weak El Nino could make 2013 a record year esp. if it was closer to a moderate. We also had near record high temperatures (+.72 on GISS) last October from a brief ONI peak of .6. If the ONI reached +.5 by August and stayed at that level for the remainder of the year, we likely would see some +.8 months with the final 5 months of year combined averaging around +.7. June and July would be pretty warm as well and bring the first 7 months of the year to .6. The year as a whole would then be around .65 which is near record level (2005 and 2010 were +.66). 

 

The transition to El Nino would need to occur very soon, and we would need to be nearing or exceeding moderate levels by the end of the year. 

 

The OHC chart updated today. +2C anomalies now appearing in the eastern subsurface. That's a lot of heat coming to the surface soon.

[Jonger]

The mean of that is barely weak El Nino territory. I highly doubt we'd challenge record global temps seriously with that. We'd need at least a solid moderate to strong.

I don't think so. The solar cycle is higher than in 2010, we have 3 more years of CO2, and 2010 was only a borderline mod/strong and yet was the warmest year (depending on source). I would say a weak El Nino could make 2013 a record year esp. if it was closer to a moderate. We also had near record high temperatures (+.72 on GISS) last October from a brief ONI peak of .6. If the ONI reached +.5 by August and stayed at that level for the remainder of the year, we likely would see some +.8 months with the final 5 months of year combined averaging around +.7. June and July would be pretty warm as well and bring the first 7 months of the year to .6. The year as a whole would then be around .65 which is near record level (2005 and 2010 were +.66).

The transition to El Nino would need to occur very soon, and we would need to be nearing or exceeding moderate levels by the end of the year.

The OHC chart updated today. +2C anomalies now appearing in the eastern subsurface. That's a lot of heat coming to the surface soon.

Seems like we have been stuck at the same temp range for a long time. Every year since the late 90s has been almost the same temp, just splitting hairs on the actual hundredth of a degree. Remove UHI and its statistically insignificant.

I'm waiting for he first 1970-2000 annual increase before changing my opinion. Time will tell.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't think so. The solar cycle is higher than in 2010, we have 3 more years of CO2, and 2010 was only a borderline mod/strong and yet was the warmest year (depending on source). I would say a weak El Nino could make 2013 a record year esp. if it was closer to a moderate. We also had near record high temperatures (+.72 on GISS) last October from a brief ONI peak of .6. If the ONI reached +.5 by August and stayed at that level for the remainder of the year, we likely would see some +.8 months with the final 5 months of year combined averaging around +.7. June and July would be pretty warm as well and bring the first 7 months of the year to .6. The year as a whole would then be around .65 which is near record level (2005 and 2010 were +.66). 

 

The transition to El Nino would need to occur very soon, and we would need to be nearing or exceeding moderate levels by the end of the year. 

 

The OHC chart updated today. +2C anomalies now appearing in the eastern subsurface. That's a lot of heat coming to the surface soon.

 

 

We'll agree to disagree. I would think we need a solid moderate Nino. Maybe a decent weak Nino would do it on GISS or Hadcrut4...2007 was warm on GISS but the other datasets didn't agree.

 

If we get the weak Nino this fall, then we'll find out soon enough if you're right.

[skierinvermont]

We'll agree to disagree. I would think we need a solid moderate Nino. Maybe a decent weak Nino would do it on GISS or Hadcrut4...2007 was warm on GISS but the other datasets didn't agree.

 

If we get the weak Nino this fall, then we'll find out soon enough if you're right.

 

Well I don't think that we're likely to see a weak Nino develop quite fast enough. I think we'd need +.5 by the end of July and then staying above +.5 and nearing +1 by Oct-Dec. Could happen but unlikely.

[nzucker]

I don't think so. The solar cycle is higher than in 2010, we have 3 more years of CO2, and 2010 was only a borderline mod/strong and yet was the warmest year (depending on source). I would say a weak El Nino could make 2013 a record year esp. if it was closer to a moderate. We also had near record high temperatures (+.72 on GISS) last October from a brief ONI peak of .6. If the ONI reached +.5 by August and stayed at that level for the remainder of the year, we likely would see some +.8 months with the final 5 months of year combined averaging around +.7. June and July would be pretty warm as well and bring the first 7 months of the year to .6. The year as a whole would then be around .65 which is near record level (2005 and 2010 were +.66). 

 

The transition to El Nino would need to occur very soon, and we would need to be nearing or exceeding moderate levels by the end of the year. 

 

The OHC chart updated today. +2C anomalies now appearing in the eastern subsurface. That's a lot of heat coming to the surface soon.

I think 2010 peaked at 1.8C which is pretty decent strong...it wasn't on the scale of 97-98 or 82-83 but definitely more impressive than recent events like 06-07 or 02-03. 

 

Not all the heat from the subsurface always comes up so it's hard to predict how that influences things...

[ORH_wxman]

I think 2010 peaked at 1.8C which is pretty decent strong...it wasn't on the scale of 97-98 or 82-83 but definitely more impressive than recent events like 06-07 or 02-03. 

 

Not all the heat from the subsurface always comes up so it's hard to predict how that influences things...

 

 

2010 peaked at +1.8C trimonthly on the old 1971-2000 base period, but the recent version of 1981-2010 it was +1.6C. It was significantly stronger than '06-'07 and '02-'03.

 

The single month peak in '09-'10 was +1.8C however.

[skierinvermont]

I think 2010 peaked at 1.8C which is pretty decent strong...it wasn't on the scale of 97-98 or 82-83 but definitely more impressive than recent events like 06-07 or 02-03. 

 

Not all the heat from the subsurface always comes up so it's hard to predict how that influences things...

From what I've observed everything east of about 150W always surfaces... that's a pretty big warm bubble.

 

[nzucker]

From what I've observed everything east of about 150W always surfaces... that's a pretty big warm bubble.

You wonder how much the larger warm bubble can displace the smaller but potent area of cold water right near the South American coast. It's hard to predict.

[Snow_Miser]

The models have definitely been simulating the ENSO state poorly thus far, at least in the Nino 3 region.

 

[Snow_Miser]

Global Temperatures have remained at around -0.01 Degrees C on the CFS for a few days now. Thus, right now, a most likely value of 0.54 +/-0.05 Degrees C seems reasonable for the June Anomaly on GISS.