Snow_Miser Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Way too early to predict the June anomaly with any confidence right now, but the CFS temperature anomaly so far through 1/6 of the month is at -0.08 Degrees C. We should get a better idea how this month will shape up in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 But each simulation also showed periods in which temperatures would stabilize for about a decade before climbing again. For example, one simulation showed the global average rising by about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit (1.4 degrees Celsius) between 2000 and 2100, but with two decade-long hiatus periods during the century. Temperatures have stabilized for close to 16 years and more than likely will continue that stretch. Obviously the simulations are quite faulty. So how much faith should we put in the 2.5 degree number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Temperatures have stabilized for close to 16 years and more than likely will continue that stretch. Obviously the simulations are quite faulty. So how much faith should we put in the 2.5 degree number? All you would need is two 1977-1998 like +PDO intervals over the next hundred years to cover that number. And that is probably conservative since the rate of warming is projected to increase over the next century. But a quieter sun for the next hundred years could shave .3c off of whatever warming there is if solar stays low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Way too early to predict the June anomaly with any confidence right now, but the CFS temperature anomaly so far through 1/6 of the month is at -0.08 Degrees C. We should get a better idea how this month will shape up in a couple weeks. I'm surprised at the numbers for the first few days of the month because the end of May warmed slightly...but June is definitely starting off cooler from an anomaly standpoint. Its way early though...we'll see how it looks by the 10th when we get to the 1/3rd mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RSS: +0.14C Down from previous month's +0.22C http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RSS: +0.14C Down from previous month's +0.22C http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt.... ...and the beat goes on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 RSS: +0.14C Down from previous month's +0.22C http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt 12th warmest. Not too far off from UAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 I'm surprised at the numbers for the first few days of the month because the end of May warmed slightly...but June is definitely starting off cooler from an anomaly standpoint. Its way early though...we'll see how it looks by the 10th when we get to the 1/3rd mark. Down to -0.1 Degrees now. Should be interesting to see how it is a few days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 8, 2013 Author Share Posted June 8, 2013 Look's like Man-Arctica is fighting back against Global Warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 Look's like Man-Arctica is fighting back against Global Warmer Lay off the pot, buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 With close to around a third of the month now in the books, the Weather Bell maps have continued to cool, and are now at -0.11 Degrees C. It's going to take some consistent positive anomalies to even bring it to zero over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I found a global temperature site that updates weekly but uses a 1981-2010 base period. You can use google translate. http://meteomodel.pl/index.php/globalne-anomalie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Oh nice, great find as I prefer the 1981-2010 base period over the earlier climate era because it provides a more clear picture of warming trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Oh nice, great find as I prefer the 1981-2010 base period over the earlier climate era because it provides a more clear picture of warming trends. The choice of referenced base periods shouldn't have any impact on "trends"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The choice of referenced base periods shouldn't have any impact on "trends"..... Yeah plotting the anomalies will give you the same trend regardless of the base period. Woodfortrees is a good sight for those who dont want to do it themselves in excel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The choice of referenced base periods shouldn't have any impact on "trends"..... Well, the 1981-2010 era is warmer and larger anomalies are more significant considering that it is more similar to the current climate regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Well, the 1981-2010 era is warmer and larger anomalies are more significant considering that it is more similar to the current climate regime. Agreed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 With close to around a third of the month now in the books, the Weather Bell maps have continued to cool, and are now at -0.11 Degrees C. It's going to take some consistent positive anomalies to even bring it to zero over the coming days. I went to post the recent global SST's. They dropped in response to the Indian Ocean being pretty cool and the Central/Eastern Pacific cooling. I checked these and was surprised. I figured it would be down around the .11C mark or even lower. I would say that is a decent rise. I am not sure outside of the CONUS where it has risen much. No one has posted an image in here in a little while of a set day. The only place I can look at on the models in the short term for warming is the Conus/Alaska/NW/W Canada. A strong ridge over the South central Atlantic is pulling daily means of 26-28C off the immiediate coast the next 4-5 days. This is 5-6C above normal at 850mb out a ways towards the Caribbean they taper back to normal. This should warm the water there and subsequently surface temps. The arctic is going to warm. Saudi Arabia is progged to have a big heat wave. The Tibetan plateau is expected to run warmer than it has so far. India is cool. Australia is going to cool. South America is going to cool in the Southern Half. South Central Africa warms up, North Central cools down. So go with the opposite of what I just said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I went to post the recent global SST's. They dropped in response to the Indian Ocean being pretty cool and the Central/Eastern Pacific cooling. I checked these and was surprised. I figured it would be down around the .11C mark or even lower. I would say that is a decent rise. I am not sure outside of the CONUS where it has risen much. No one has posted an image in here in a little while of a set day. The only place I can look at on the models in the short term for warming is the Conus/Alaska/NW/W Canada. A strong ridge over the South central Atlantic is pulling daily means of 26-28C off the immiediate coast the next 4-5 days. This is 5-6C above normal at 850mb out a ways towards the Caribbean they taper back to normal. This should warm the water there and subsequently surface temps. The arctic is going to warm. Saudi Arabia is progged to have a big heat wave. The Tibetan plateau is expected to run warmer than it has so far. India is cool. Australia is going to cool. South America is going to cool in the Southern Half. South Central Africa warms up, North Central cools down. So go with the opposite of what I just said. They've warmed up now to -0.06 Degrees C, but it's still cooler than April/May. It could cool from here or continue to warm. Anything's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 They've warmed up now to -0.06 Degrees C, but it's still cooler than April/May. It could cool from here or continue to warm. Anything's possible. Its warmed a lot in the past 2 days, so I would guess that we see continued warming at least for the time being. Whether we finished above 0 on the weatherbell maps is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Do we have any sort of knowledge of how much the global temp anomaly can change from the first third. The global chart here went to .11C on the 10th. And in three days has almost wiped that out. By no means do I think this rate of warming will last all month. I am just curious how much variance there can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 If you watch an animation of that map, you will see quite a bit day to day. I have no idea where to find the animation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Do we have any sort of knowledge of how much the global temp anomaly can change from the first third. The global chart here went to .11C on the 10th. And in three days has almost wiped that out. By no means do I think this rate of warming will last all month. I am just curious how much variance there can be. I believe as you move further into the month the rate of change lessens meaning you won't see large changes in short spans as what just happened the past few days if that is what you are reffering to but don't take my word on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The earlier in the month, the more variance the anomaly will have because there's fewer days in the average "month to date" temperature. Still, to go from -0.11 to just better than -0.04 in 3 days is impressive. That means that the anomaly for the past 3 days has been roughly +0.15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The earlier in the month, the more variance the anomaly will have because there's fewer days in the average "month to date" temperature. Still, to go from -0.11 to just better than -0.04 in 3 days is impressive. That means that the anomaly for the past 3 days has been roughly +0.15C. Looks like it will continue to warm most likely wipe out the cool start to the month based on this chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Equatorial pacific subsurface temperatures have risen sharply over the last month and the CFSv2 is predicting the ONI to reach .75 by October (weak El Nino). Expect the last 3 months of the year to be very warm as this heat is released to the atmosphere (I would guess +.7C on GISS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 I'm not really convinced we get to a weak El Nino...the CFS was predicting El Nino conditions by mid summer a few months ago and the subsurface warming back then was pushed westward instead of manifesting itself on the surface. It will most likely be El Nino or neutral, but I'd favor neutral right now. I'd like to see the Euro SIPS more aggressive anda sign of more consistent westerly bursts for El Nino to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 I'm not really convinced we get to a weak El Nino...the CFS was predicting El Nino conditions by mid summer a few months ago and the subsurface warming back then was pushed westward instead of manifesting itself on the surface. It will most likely be El Nino or neutral, but I'd favor neutral right now. I'd like to see the Euro SIPS more aggressive anda sign of more consistent westerly bursts for El Nino to develop. The latest round of subsurface warming is more impressive and closer to the surface. I believe the CFSv2 forecast is running a bit higher than it was last time. All three model runs are .5C or higher with the most recent run peaking the highest (at .75C) which is often an indication that it might keep trending up. Last time IIRC it was more like one or two runs peaked at .5 or .6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Equatorial pacific subsurface temperatures have risen sharply over the last month and the CFSv2 is predicting the ONI to reach .75 by October (weak El Nino). Expect the last 3 months of the year to be very warm as this heat is released to the atmosphere (I would guess +.7C on GISS). Seems awfully speculative to start predicting anomalies for the last three months of the year based on ONI models, based on current sub-surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 The latest round of subsurface warming is more impressive and closer to the surface. I believe the CFSv2 forecast is running a bit higher than it was last time. All three model runs are .5C or higher with the most recent run peaking the highest (at .75C) which is often an indication that it might keep trending up. Last time IIRC it was more like one or two runs peaked at .5 or .6. Well you might end up correct to be more bullish on Nino in the end...but the subsurface warming is still pretty far west. I'll be more confident if we see some actual propegation eastward with some sort of westerly wind burst events. This pacific pattern has been bullying attempts at Nino since last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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