2013 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Since we do not have December data to give us a jump off point for global temperatures we can start with ocean SST data which show's us 2013 is likely to start off much warmer than 2012.

I would venture to guess 2013 will take a run at top 5 warmest on record, Global SST's are still quite warm in spite of the failed NINO.

display plot oiv2.ctl

ssta 1

03nov2011 to 26dec2012

[nzucker]

Looks to me as if a Niña is starting to develop. 

[Jonger]

Looks like the constant stream of pacific storms have churned colder water to the surface off the west coast.

[The_Global_Warmer]

If we were looking at a NIno we might be at record warm SSTs globally.

I am not well versed on global SSTs ossilations so I am not sure if the S. Hemisphere is cycling but it's definitely warming this year do far. Maybe the PV has been land locked.

[nzucker]

If we were looking at a NIno we might be at record warm SSTs globally.

I am not well versed on global SSTs ossilations so I am not sure if the S. Hemisphere is cycling but it's definitely warming this year do far. Maybe the PV has been land locked.

 

SSTs should see a lot of cooling with the La Niña developing....trade winds are going to be rather strong in the next 7-10 days so we'll probably see more cooling in the ENSO regions. That should drive the boat, so to speak, with cooling also likely in the already chilly PDO regions and the recently warmer South Pacific. 

 

I don't see this being a particularly warm year globally, but we'll see. 

[Isotherm]

December's global temps were a nice change from recent months, below average:

 

 

 

[Isotherm]

2012 in review. What stands out to me -- the CONUS blowtorch. Most other continents averaged cool globally, with the arctic regions very warm, bringing up the average.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Where are you getting those bogus graphs ?

What are they based on?

[skierinvermont]

The CFS is not designed to measure global temperatures. Don and I have addressed this several times in this forum. And it is important to note that "average" for those maps is defined as 1981-2010.

 

 

In reality, 2012 was about .6C above the 1951-1980 average. And .25C above the 1981-2010 average. Not the mere .03C CFS suggests. And December was likely nearly that warm as well. 

 

 

I suggest you stop reading JB. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="nzucker" data-cid="1976736" data-time="1357096776"><p>

SSTs should see a lot of cooling with the La Niña developing....trade winds are going to be rather strong in the next 7-10 days so we'll probably see more cooling in the ENSO regions. That should drive the boat, so to speak, with cooling also likely in the already chilly PDO regions and the recently warmer South Pacific. <br />

<br />

I don't see this being a particularly warm year globally, but we'll see.</p></blockquote>

So you expect a full blown Nina this year?

And why would the Southern Hemisphere cool off?

2011 and 2012 were 8th and 9th Warmest.

2013 is going to start much warmer.

So do you expect 2013 to be cooler than the last two years?

[Isotherm]

The CFS is not designed to measure global temperatures. And it is important to note that "average" for those maps is defined as 1981-2010.

 

 

In reality, 2012 was about .6C above the 1951-1980 average. And .25C above the 1981-2010 average. Not the mere .03C CFS suggests. And December was likely nearly that warm as well. 

 

 

I suggest you stop reading JB. 

 

 

 

What's your source for the +0.25c value, and what makes you think that's the correct one?

[skierinvermont]

What's your source for the +0.25c value, and what makes you think that's the correct one?

 

UAH, RSS, Had4, GISS, and NCDC.

 

The fact that they have been designed to measure global temperature and have been heavily scrutinized for decades, while CFS has not been designed to measure global temperature. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

After a quick search basically, RSS, UAH, GISS, and Had4 are going to be 9th warmest on record for 2012.  NCDC is 8th.

 

 

2013 is likely to start out much much warmer.  I can't see how the NH(March-October) will be cool enough for 2013 to not be substantially warmer than 2011, 2012.

 

If 1998, 2005, 2010 are not met. I think a 2013 will finish 4th or 5th.

 

 

If anyone has any real/legit reason to think 2013 finishes around 2011 and 2012 or below it would be a nice discussion to have.

 

 

Once again ENSO keeps near record or record global temperatures from being met.  But I can't see how some do not see the warming trend underneath this.  It may have slowed VS the 80s and 90s but with 2012 being the warmest NINA year on record the warming continues.

 

 

I think this will show us a lot.  We can see the Dec-Feb period with 2008, 2011, and 2012 being "relatively" cool because of NINA.  The current ENSO cooling which is more neutral is being off-set by much warmer global SSTs.  So this Dec-Feb period but more important for 2013 purposes will be warmer than those by quite a bit.  We can see the recent Fall period was 2nd warmest on record.

 

 

 

 

 

 

While things have cooled they have a long way to go before any NINA impact will be felt on global temperatures. 

 

[nzucker]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="nzucker" data-cid="1976736" data-time="1357096776"><p>

SSTs should see a lot of cooling with the La Niña developing....trade winds are going to be rather strong in the next 7-10 days so we'll probably see more cooling in the ENSO regions. That should drive the boat, so to speak, with cooling also likely in the already chilly PDO regions and the recently warmer South Pacific. <br />

<br />

I don't see this being a particularly warm year globally, but we'll see.</p></blockquote>

So you expect a full blown Nina this year?

And why would the Southern Hemisphere cool off?

2011 and 2012 were 8th and 9th Warmest.

2013 is going to start much warmer.

So do you expect 2013 to be cooler than the last two years?

 

I don't expect a strong Niña yet because the subsurface isn't cold enough, but it's much too early to know anyway. You usually start to have a better idea about ENSO by spring/summertime, but we'll certainly be losing the warm ENSO lag which will cause global temperatures to fall compared to where they were now, which is reflecting this summer's weak +ENSO conditions. SSTs have already come down significantly from their peak a few months ago when the possibility for a weak El Niño was still on the table. 

 

The Southern Hemisphere tends to see cooling in Niñas because you get a strong Antarctic/Humboldt current which lowers SSTs in a significant part of the South Pacific. Besides, having any -ENSO regime reduces SSTs globally which is bound to have an effect in parts of the Southern Hemisphere.

 

I can't predict yet where the year will finish since it's so early, but it's a good chance global temperatures will be decreasing from their current anomalies. 

[nzucker]

The CFS is not designed to measure global temperatures. Don and I have addressed this several times in this forum. And it is important to note that "average" for those maps is defined as 1981-2010.

 

 

In reality, 2012 was about .6C above the 1951-1980 average. And .25C above the 1981-2010 average. Not the mere .03C CFS suggests. And December was likely nearly that warm as well. 

 

 

I suggest you stop reading JB. 

 

The CFS looks completely correct in spatial anomalies but may be off in magnitude. It doesn't affect the patterns that Isotherm is pointing out really. 

[tacoman25]

December's global temps were a nice change from recent months, below average:

 

 

For the U.S., at least, that map is pretty close to the NCDC one.

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I don't expect a strong Niña yet because the subsurface isn't cold enough, but it's much too early to know anyway. You usually start to have a better idea about ENSO by spring/summertime, but we'll certainly be losing the warm ENSO lag which will cause global temperatures to fall compared to where they were now, which is reflecting this summer's weak +ENSO conditions. SSTs have already come down significantly from their peak a few months ago when the possibility for a weak El Niño was still on the table. 

 

The Southern Hemisphere tends to see cooling in Niñas because you get a strong Antarctic/Humboldt current which lowers SSTs in a significant part of the South Pacific. Besides, having any -ENSO regime reduces SSTs globally which is bound to have an effect in parts of the Southern Hemisphere.

 

I can't predict yet where the year will finish since it's so early, but it's a good chance global temperatures will be decreasing from their current anomalies. 

 

Well pending on the data set the current anomaly's are anywhere from record to top 5 or 6.

 

Global SST anomaly's this past week were 0.235C vs 0.025C last year at this time and still only 0.030C down from this summer monthly peak.  But a bit lower than the weekly peak right around 0.300C.  So even though they are lower and maybe the recent 3-4 week rise won't continue. 

 

January and February of 2011 on UAH started out -0.134, and -0.135 with March rebounding to 0.051C.  UAH will still end up the 9th warmest on record in 2012. 2013 will start out much warmer.

 

While AMSU is considered to be bunk attm, channel 5 temps are at record highs right now and global temps on UAH, GISS, Had4, and NCDC have all been very warm confirming even with AMSU being dropped because of spurious warming the Earth is running warm.

 

GISS and NCDC have recently had record or near record surface temperature warmth.

 

 

If 2013 is going to finish out of the top 5 then the Summer and Fall will have to end up far cooler than recent years.  Even with non-NINO conditions we have seen the Spring warm up big time over the NH.

 

If that happens again, given the warmer ocean 2013 is going to be closer to 2010 than 2011 and 2012.

[Snow_Miser]

What does everyone think of the Met Office predicting 2013 to be even warmer than 2010? I'm highly skeptical, especially because of what appears to be a La Nina forming in the Tropical Pacific.

[skierinvermont]

The CFS looks completely correct in spatial anomalies but may be off in magnitude. It doesn't affect the patterns that Isotherm is pointing out really. 

 

Except that's NOT what he was pointing out. He made two claims about general magnitude that were false. 1. December was below average (it wasn't even close). 2. Most continents besides NA were below average in 2012 (they weren't). 

 

He described December as "below average." I assure you, none of the sources that are designed to actual measure global temperature (UAH, RSS, NCDC, GISS, Had4) will come in above average, even on a modern baseline (which is misleading without specification). 

 

He also described most other continents as "below average" for 2012 as a whole. That's only because he is using a source with a very modern baseline, and a well known cold bias even for that baseline. 

 

The baseline accounts for about .3C vs a 20th century baseline. The bias accounts for another .2-.3C. In sum, the bias of about .5-.6C makes most of the map go from blue to orange. 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH finished at 0.20C(1981-2010) baseline in December. 

 

Given the current SSTs.  January is likely to be 0.25C warmer on UAH than last year if not more.

 

the now considered unreliable AMSU data is still be churned out and even rolled over into 2013 showing things being well on the warm side, even if it is "bias" and not used it still trends with the rest of what the data will show.  Makes sense considering global ssts as well.

 

I dunno if 2013 can beat 2010 given it will start cooler and ENSO is radically different, so not likely with basically NINA conditions attm.  But the Earth overall is still pretty warm given ENSO the last couple years.

 

I fully expect 2013 to be top 5 warmest on record on UAH, GISS, and NCDC.

[ben4vols]

I fully expect 2013 to be top 5 warmest on record on UAH, GISS, and NCDC.

 

 

I fully expect NCDC "adjustments" to 2013 temperatures to be in the top 5 as well. 

[Jonger]

I fully expect NCDC "adjustments" to 2013 temperatures to be in the top 5 as well. 

 

Just a tweak or two will do.

[skierinvermont]

Just a tweak or two will do.

 

The methodology behind the adjustments has been made very clear to you Jonger. You should know better than this.

 

Are you seriously suggesting that we use temperature measurements from 6pm today to compare to measurements taken at 2pm 50 years ago?

[Jonger]

Just a tweak or two will do.

 

The methodology behind the adjustments has been made very clear to you Jonger. You should know better than this.

 

Are you seriously suggesting that we use temperature measurements from 6pm today to compare to measurements taken at 2pm 50 years ago?

Adjusting past temps upward... Sure. Adjusting current departures... Heck no.

I'm not sure we are on the same page. Why are my current departures being adjusted upward and stamped into the record books?

[skierinvermont]

Adjusting past temps upward... Sure. Adjusting current departures... Heck no. I'm not sure we are on the same page. Why are my current departures being adjusted upward and stamped into the record books?

 

The anomalies are adjusted upwards because relative to the base period current temperatures are recorded at a later, cooler, time of day.

 

 

Time of observation is the largest adjustment to temperatures.

 

 

So I ask again, are you suggesting that temperatures at 2pm and 6pm are the same?

 

 

Also, there hasn't been any change in the adjustments since 1990, so the trends since 1990 are unaffected by any adjustments.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The anomalies are adjusted upwards because relative to the base period current temperatures are recorded at a later, cooler, time of day.

 

 

Time of observation is the largest adjustment to temperatures.

 

 

So I ask again, are you suggesting that temperatures at 2pm and 6pm are the same?

 

 

Also, there hasn't been any change in the adjustments since 1990, so the trends since 1990 are unaffected by any adjustments.

 

 

 

I appreciate the info.  To bad your having to do it against blatant trolling that is just crap and clogs the threads.  Jonger has NOTHING to back his points, he is literally wasting your precious time just to confuse up the Science that doesn't fit his bias. 

 

I don't think there should be any repercussions for his position, I took it with Roy Spencer, even if I was wrong I made an argument backed it with data that I thought helped it.  It may be crude but it's a semi legit or even legit process.  Benvol's, and jongers posts do not fit any sort of argue-mental process and are backed by nothing. 

 

At least Jonger could show you an assortment of graphs and other data about some of the people who are manipulating data at the NCDC.  He should post names of the perpetrators and try and out them. By now considering he has made these false accusations dozens of times he should have file folders full of info collected if he is this passionate it about.

 

 

Back to discussing the topic at hand the global sst weeeklies are out and a big drop from the 4 week rise.  A couple cool spots + the NINA trending conditions have caused a cool down.

display plot oiv2.ctl ssta 1 03jan2012 to 02jan2013

 

 

 

[ben4vols]

The methodology behind the adjustments has been made very clear to you Jonger. You should know better than this.

 

Are you seriously suggesting that we use temperature measurements from 6pm today to compare to measurements taken at 2pm 50 years ago?

 

The methodology has never been made clear to anyone outside of those tampering with the data at NOAA.  it's become a shell game. 

[skierinvermont]

The methodology has never been made clear to anyone outside of those tampering with the data at NOAA.  it's become a shell game. 

 

Every single adjustment made has peer-reviewed papers that are publicly available right there on the NOAA page explaining the methodology.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushcn/ushcn.html

 

You know this.

[LakeEffectKing]

http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/hadcrut3vgl/last:120/offset:-0.146/plot/uah/last:120/plot/rss/last:120/plot/gistemp/last:120/offset:-0.238

[nzucker]

Back to discussing the topic at hand the global sst weeeklies are out and a big drop from the 4 week rise.  A couple cool spots + the NINA trending conditions have caused a cool down.

 

This is what I just mentioned, and you seemed not to agree. While a Kelvin Wave approaching from the west may temporarily halt the cooling, we're plunging rapidly towards Niña conditions with 3/4 ENSO regions below normal in the weeklies. There's also cooling in the South Pacific and parts of the North Atlantic, so it's no surprise global SSTs continue to fall. I think it'll be hard to register a top 5 warm year with the SST/ENSO picture the way it is today.