DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN1136 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CST TUESDAY....SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THEMIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREADACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A MIX OFFREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALLICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITHACCUMULATIONS LIMITED PREDOMINANTLY TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH ASBRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Greenville, MS weather office's last report was 30 degrees and snow. I'm not sure that was expected due to temps in the upper atmosphere being too warm. Might be seeing more cold air than initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL1156 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013.UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAFS&&.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1140 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013/WILL BE AMENDING ZONES SHORTLY IN REFERENCE TO THE FLOOD WATCH THATHAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO FRANKLINCOUNTY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENTTHINKING INVOLVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMAAND LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.AREA 88-DS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TOMODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ANDCENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTH ALABAMA. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARENEARING THE CRITICAL RANGE...WITH NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT 17Z MAINLY INTHE MID 30S AND TEMPS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE 30-32DEGREE RANGE AS PER SURFACE OBS/MESONET AND AWOS DATA.THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RESPECTS TO THE 1000-850 MBLAYER THROUGH THIS MORNING VIA BUFKIT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THEAREA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCETHROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THEGOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Up to 2.18 with a long train of moisture still streaming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nice... it's retreated back your way, we're just waiting for the push back here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Up to 1.03" in Weaverville with more on the way. One of our better rain events in several months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Nothing for the drought areas though. The area fron Columbus GA through Columbia SC area and SE from there will be lucky to see a trace out of this event. Am not really looking for much here and I'm 70 miles northwest of Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's a shame that colder air won't make it over the plateau in time for east TN to get in on the fun and games. Oh well, congrats west/middle folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 1.47" storm total IMBY so far. 3.46" for January so far. Much needed good start to the year after my 15"+ deficit for 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 up to 1.88 through 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 2.77 inches still coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Huntsville area may have 1/4" of ice http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_hun.php N TERMS OF THE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE BIGQUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG WE CAN HOLD ONTO SFC TEMPS AROUNDFREEZING. THE SPECIAL SOUNDING PERFORMED BY REDSTONE ARSENAL THISAFTERNOON WAS PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IN IDENTIFYING THE DEPTH OF THESURFACE COLD LAYER...WHICH SHOWS COOLING TEMPS UP TO ABT 1600FT (WITHTHE INVERSION TO THE PEAK OF THE WARM NOSE IN THE NEXT 1000FT ABV THESFC). THIS GIVES US A GOOD INDICATION OF THE ICING POTENTIAL BEINGLOWER FOR THE TOPS OF OUR NEARBY MTNS/PLATEAUS (WITH THE TOP OF MONTESANO AOA 1600FT).SO FAR...THE FZG RAIN IS PRIMARILY COATING TREES AND POWERLINES (ASEXPECTED CONSIDERING THE RECORD WARMTH WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK AND OVERTHE WEEKEND HELPING KEEP ROAD SFCS WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING).WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED THAT RAIN/FZG RAIN WOULD PERIODICALLYCHANGE BACK AND FORTH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE AS SFC FZGOCCURRED...BUT COLD ADVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY.THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZING PROBLEMS ACROSS THECWA ON THOSE ELEVATED SURFACES. ONE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERALHOURS IS A BOUNDARY LINE SHOWING UP ON GWX RADAR. DUAL POL ANALYSISINDICATES THAT THIS LINE (CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NASHVILLE TOOXFORD) MAY BE INDICATING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR HEADEDTOWARD THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING THETEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING CLOSELY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT STARTTO RECOVER SLIGHTLY WE MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ICEACCUMULATIONS RISING TOWARD OR ABOVE THE ONE QUARTER INCH MARK BY THEEARLY MORNING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I can't come close to the totals posted by our NC and GA mountain communities nor those of TN, but I've gotten a modest 0.41 in the bucket since midnight. Not too shabby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Another record falls again (3rd day in a row)....and not the first drop of rain....sigh SXUS72 KCAE 142223RERCAERECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC0524 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT SC...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLUMBIA METROAIRPORT SC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 SET IN 1932.DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE COLUMBIA AREA DATE BACK TO 1887. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 39 @ La Fayetta GA and i'm sitting at 58 here on the east side. what a little rain will do for yea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 It's a shame that colder air won't make it over the plateau in time for east TN to get in on the fun and games. Oh well, congrats west/middle folks! We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM.I just noticed on wunderground that most local stations are around 38 degrees here, and the Alexian village station on signal mountain is down to 34.1. Gonna be close on area ridge tops tonight.Edit: up to 3.12 inches now with a variety of flood advisories and warnings in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Front came through here right at 4pm. Currently down 8º from my high and I'm at my current low for the day. You can see my current rainfall for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneR4 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Since Saturday, I'm almost to 2.5 inches of rain. Currently under WWA for FRZ RN. Some icing of trees has begun, esp in mountain areas around HSV. Lots of chatter about possible winter mischief Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Since Saturday, I'm almost to 2.5 inches of rain. Currently under WWA for FRZ RN. Some icing of trees has begun, esp in mountain areas around HSV. Lots of chatter about possible winter mischief Thurs. I posted the Huntsville AFD earlier. Possibly 1/4" or more by morning. And from BMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 549 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013 .UPDATE... FOR AVIATION AND EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN. && .DISCUSSION... WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD MOVING A TAD FURTHER SOUTH AND THE FREEZING LINE ADJUSTING SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TO INCLUDE LAMAR...FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTIES. HOWEVER ONLY EXPECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTIES TO EXPERIENCE ANY MINOR ACCUMULATION. THE MAIN TROUBLE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS WHAT TO DO WITH TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THINKING THAT THE RAIN WILL INHIBIT THE FREEZING RAIN FROM ACCUMULATING AS MUCH AS IT COULD SO WHILE QPF MAY BE ABOVE A QUARTER IN THE NORTHWEST...THINKING THAT DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN..THEN JUST RAIN...THEN FREEZING RAIN AGAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AROUND A TENTH TO JUST UNDER A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS ICE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. ALSO INCLUDED ICE PELLETS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS FAR SOUTH AS I-59...INCLUDING THE BIRMINGHAM METRO DO TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. IN FACT HAVE ALREADY AN ISOLATED CALL JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER 5 PM. NO ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS EXPECTED. UPDATES ARE OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We picked up 1.1" of rain today and the temp has dropped to 44. It feels refreshing after the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 1.59" thru the gauge in Weaverville so far for the event. Quite interesting watching my weather station today....you could see the front waffle first to the S then back to the N & finally back to the S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0.97 in the bucket so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM. Scientific information like this is why I come to these forums. Meanwhile at my house it is currently 61F - which is 29 degrees above freezing. I have had a meager .27" of rain - which is only .27" above, not a damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Scientific information like this is why I come to these forums. Meanwhile at my house it is currently 61F - which is 29 degrees above freezing. I have had a meager .27" of rain - which is only .27" above, not a damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Pretty interesting temperature map of Georgia right now. Unfortunately I can't post it right now but its low to mid 40s in the NW portion of the state. Meanwhile it is pushing 70 just south of Atlanta. Pretty obvious where the cold front is. I picked up .1 when the rain started late this afternoon. Then it stopped, but it's dripping again now....got a long way to go to get the 1/4 inch Goofy was giving me the other day 58 though so I'm not too far off Frosty's secret Gov zrain temps. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Scientific information like this is why I come to these forums. Meanwhile at my house it is currently 61F - which is 29 degrees above freezing. I have had a meager .27" of rain - which is only .27" above, not a damn thing. Currently 67 which is 35 degrees above freezing. All the models have an extreme dry bias and they substantially over do surface temperatures. This is a very good signal which indicates the high potential for frozen precip tonight. Models don't pick up on surface lows very well when the AAO is positive and significant snow cover exist in Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Nearly 2 inches of rain today in Knoxville. Temp is back up to 36F, but WWAs have been posted for the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Wow... Rain has stopped here in Saluda NC... The temp is down from 61.7 at 730 pm to a breezy 46.6... Have had 2.9 inches of rain the past 12 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 0.63in for the day. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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