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January 2013 OBS


metalicwx366

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CST TUESDAY...

.SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WITH LITTLE WARMING EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OVERALL
ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIMITED PREDOMINANTLY TO ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1156 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1140 AM CST MON JAN 14 2013/
WILL BE AMENDING ZONES SHORTLY IN REFERENCE TO THE FLOOD WATCH THAT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO FRANKLIN
COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT
THINKING INVOLVING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA
AND LINCOLN AND MOORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

AREA 88-DS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO NORTH ALABAMA. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
NEARING THE CRITICAL RANGE...WITH NORTHWEST ALABAMA AT 17Z MAINLY IN
THE MID 30S AND TEMPS IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE 30-32
DEGREE RANGE AS PER SURFACE OBS/MESONET AND AWOS DATA.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RESPECTS TO THE 1000-850 MB
LAYER THROUGH THIS MORNING VIA BUFKIT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE
GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

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Huntsville area may have 1/4" of ice http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_hun.php

 

N TERMS OF THE FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...THE BIG
QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW LONG WE CAN HOLD ONTO SFC TEMPS AROUND
FREEZING. THE SPECIAL SOUNDING PERFORMED BY REDSTONE ARSENAL THIS
AFTERNOON WAS PARTICULARLY HELPFUL IN IDENTIFYING THE DEPTH OF THE
SURFACE COLD LAYER...WHICH SHOWS COOLING TEMPS UP TO ABT 1600FT (WITH
THE INVERSION TO THE PEAK OF THE WARM NOSE IN THE NEXT 1000FT ABV THE
SFC). THIS GIVES US A GOOD INDICATION OF THE ICING POTENTIAL BEING
LOWER FOR THE TOPS OF OUR NEARBY MTNS/PLATEAUS (WITH THE TOP OF MONTE
SANO AOA 1600FT).

SO FAR...THE FZG RAIN IS PRIMARILY COATING TREES AND POWERLINES (AS
EXPECTED CONSIDERING THE RECORD WARMTH WE SAW LATE LAST WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND HELPING KEEP ROAD SFCS WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ICING).
WE HAD PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED THAT RAIN/FZG RAIN WOULD PERIODICALLY
CHANGE BACK AND FORTH DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE AS SFC FZG
OCCURRED...BUT COLD ADVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE STRONG THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD GLAZING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
CWA ON THOSE ELEVATED SURFACES. ONE CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS IS A BOUNDARY LINE SHOWING UP ON GWX RADAR. DUAL POL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THIS LINE (CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NASHVILLE TO
OXFORD) MAY BE INDICATING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR HEADED
TOWARD THE CWA. FOR THIS REASON...WE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORING THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS EVENING CLOSELY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT START
TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY WE MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS RISING TOWARD OR ABOVE THE ONE QUARTER INCH MARK BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

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Another record falls again (3rd day in a row)....and not the first drop of rain....sigh

 

 

SXUS72 KCAE 142223RERCAERECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC0524 PM EST MON JAN 14 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT SC...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET AT COLUMBIA METROAIRPORT SC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 80 SET IN 1932.DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN THE COLUMBIA AREA DATE BACK TO 1887.
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acbur.jpg

 

It's a shame that colder air won't make it over the plateau in time for east TN to get in on the fun and games.  Oh well, congrats west/middle folks!

 

We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM.

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We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM.

I just noticed on wunderground that most local stations are around 38 degrees here, and the Alexian village station on signal mountain is down to 34.1. Gonna be close on area ridge tops tonight.

Edit: up to 3.12 inches now with a variety of flood advisories and warnings in effect.

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Since Saturday, I'm almost to 2.5 inches of rain. Currently under WWA for FRZ RN. Some icing of trees has begun, esp in mountain areas around HSV. Lots of chatter about possible winter mischief Thurs.

I posted the Huntsville AFD earlier. Possibly 1/4" or more by morning. And from BMX

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

549 PM CST MON JAN 14 2013

.UPDATE...

FOR AVIATION AND EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WITH THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD MOVING A TAD FURTHER SOUTH AND THE

FREEZING LINE ADJUSTING SOUTHWARD AS WELL...WENT AHEAD AND

EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN TO INCLUDE

LAMAR...FAYETTE AND WALKER COUNTIES. HOWEVER ONLY EXPECTING THE

NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTIES TO EXPERIENCE ANY MINOR

ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN TROUBLE WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS WHAT TO DO WITH

TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THINKING THAT THE

RAIN WILL INHIBIT THE FREEZING RAIN FROM ACCUMULATING AS MUCH AS

IT COULD SO WHILE QPF MAY BE ABOVE A QUARTER IN THE

NORTHWEST...THINKING THAT DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS THERE WILL BE

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN..THEN JUST RAIN...THEN FREEZING RAIN

AGAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AROUND A

TENTH TO JUST UNDER A QUARTER INCH OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE

EXPECTED AS ICE IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

ALSO INCLUDED ICE PELLETS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS FAR SOUTH

AS I-59...INCLUDING THE BIRMINGHAM METRO DO TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

IN FACT HAVE ALREADY AN ISOLATED CALL JUST A FEW MINUTES AFTER 5

PM. NO ACCUMULATION OF SLEET IS EXPECTED.

UPDATES ARE OUT.

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We're getting VERY close to that point in parts of Knoxville. Current air temp where I'm at is 35F - which is 3 degrees above freezing. Cold air seems to be bleeding in more than I thought it would. I didn't think we'd hit 35 tonight ad it's already 7PM.

 

Scientific information like this is why I come to these forums.  

 

Meanwhile at my house it is currently 61F - which is 29 degrees above freezing.  I have had a meager .27" of rain - which is only .27" above, not a damn thing.

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Pretty interesting temperature map of Georgia right now.  Unfortunately I can't post it right now but its low to mid 40s in the NW portion of the state.  Meanwhile it is pushing 70 just south of Atlanta.  Pretty obvious where the cold front is.

I picked up .1 when the rain started late this afternoon.  Then it stopped, but it's dripping again now....got a long way to go to get the 1/4 inch Goofy was giving me the other day :)  58 though so I'm not too far off Frosty's secret Gov zrain temps.  T

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Scientific information like this is why I come to these forums.

Meanwhile at my house it is currently 61F - which is 29 degrees above freezing. I have had a meager .27" of rain - which is only .27" above, not a damn thing.

Currently 67 which is 35 degrees above freezing. All the models have an extreme dry bias and they substantially over do surface temperatures. This is a very good signal which indicates the high potential for frozen precip tonight. Models don't pick up on surface lows very well when the AAO is positive and significant snow cover exist in Russia.
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