CT Rain Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 From today's 12z GFS? Looking at Euro/GFS last night doesn't look like the front would push through until later Sunday? 6z GFS was faster. Looked like severe potential especially upstate NY. But yeah a slower fropa like the Euro would either result in little or a delayed threat. We'll see. Finally some suface based buoyancy and increasing wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Severe potential next Saturday Wiz????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 6z GFS was faster. Looked like severe potential especially upstate NY. But yeah a slower fropa like the Euro would either result in little or a delayed threat. We'll see. Finally some suface based buoyancy and increasing wind fields. It's a nice strong push of WAA behind that warm front there...might even get out first taste at some humidity as well. Something to finally watch for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 It's a nice strong push of WAA behind that warm front there...might even get out first taste at some humidity as well. Something to finally watch for! 12z GFS says no dice... but looks like it could be a weekend soaker with a secondary developing. I think our drought is on its last legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 12z GFS says no dice... but looks like it could be a weekend soaker with a secondary developing. I think our drought is on its last legs. I could really see this being more of a heavy rain threat than severe threat...especially with the trough/front progressing so slowly and with still strong ridging to our east, we could see the front stall near us allowing for waves of low pressure to develop along the front. I also wouldn't rule out the possibility of some rain'storms with the warm front as it lifts north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Does this thread need to end or have it's title changed? It's May 5th...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 Does this thread need to end or have it's title changed? It's May 5th...... The title is copyrighted and a classic, and therefore, can't be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 The title is copyrighted and a classic, and therefore, can't be changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Maybe some downpours, lightning, and small hailers on Thursday? GFS develops about 500 j/kg of SBCAPE and LIs dip below zero across most of SNE as the cold pool goes overhead. I could see Thursday turning into a sneaky soaker in some areas if convection can fire up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Maybe some downpours, lightning, and small hailers on Thursday? GFS develops about 500 j/kg of SBCAPE and LIs dip below zero across most of SNE as the cold pool goes overhead. I could see Thursday turning into a sneaky soaker in some areas if convection can fire up. Mudslides because heavy rain on dry soil over mt Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 Maybe some downpours, lightning, and small hailers on Thursday? GFS develops about 500 j/kg of SBCAPE and LIs dip below zero across most of SNE as the cold pool goes overhead. I could see Thursday turning into a sneaky soaker in some areas if convection can fire up. If we can get any breaks of sunshine on Thursday could be interesting for some storms as lapse rates will be fairly steep. Wind fields aloft are virtually nada though so we'll need forcing from 1) sun and 2) the low pressure to get robust enough updrafts. I could certainly see upslope induced showers/heavy downpours as well given wind trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 If we can get any breaks of sunshine on Thursday could be interesting for some storms as lapse rates will be fairly steep. Wind fields aloft are virtually nada though so we'll need forcing from 1) sun and 2) the low pressure to get robust enough updrafts. I could certainly see upslope induced showers/heavy downpours as well given wind trajectory. Yes and weak/non-existent wind fields will mean that things will crawl. No storm organization to speak of but pulsers are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 Yes and weak/non-existent wind fields will mean that things will crawl. No storm organization to speak of but pulsers are possible. If we can manage 750-1000 J/KG of Cape...maybe even 1250 with enough sun I would think that should support some small hailers given how low the freezing levels will be. I doubt we see anything really bigger than dime though given lack of vertical shear/helcity...however, sometimes these cold pools can really overproduce so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 We'll need to watch where that diffuse boundary is too. Light srly winds are obviously better than east or even southeast winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 I thought this would be interesting to look at... A few weeks ago I compiled a spreadsheet with the dates of tornadoes across Connecticut (using data from 1950-2013). When using a running 10-day total, it's one graphical way of evaluating tornado frequency by time of year. When looking at the season, once we get past mid-August, the frequency of tornadoes in Connecticut drops off sharply. There are some "skewed" findings with a couple of days in October with two tornadoes. It's somewhat reminiscent of a secondary peak in the Atlantic hurricane season - although I'm not implying there's any sort of direct correlation there. There's also a relatively small sampling of tornadoes here since 1950. Source data for the tornado reports from 1950-2012: Tornado ProjectInformation for 2013 tornadoes was retrieved from the Storm Prediction Center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2013 Author Share Posted August 14, 2013 Thanks for posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Nice graph, but that correlates well for a lot of places so I'm not surprised by your findings. Tornadoes usually taper off significantly for most after mid July, which is when the Northern Plains/Great Lakes have the opportunity for some increased activity. As for those October tornadoes, I think your idea of it being related to hurricane season is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 6 more months until a new thread is started!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 6 more months until a new thread is started!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 We need a good event before this season ends. Maybe the warmup next week with a west flow will eventually be more conducive for severe? Maybe a weenie EML with some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 We need a good event before this season ends. Maybe the warmup next week with a west flow will eventually be more conducive for severe? Maybe a weenie EML with some luck. It's likely our last chance in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 It's likely our last chance in the foreseeable future. Embrace winter. Less chance to disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Embrace winter. Less chance to disappoint. If we get slammed with blizzards regularly then that's the only way I'll embrace it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 If we get slammed with blizzards regularly then that's the only way I'll embrace it. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Agreed Embrace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Embrace. It's coming. Ole Man Winter is rubbing his eyes and just hit the snooze button. The moment of his ascendancy is growing closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 It's coming. Ole Man Winter is rubbing his eyes and just hit the snooze button. The moment of his ascendancy is growing closer. You certainly are adamant about it. All hail weathafella if you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 If we get slammed with blizzards regularly then that's the only way I'll embrace it. For someone who wants to get slammed regularly w "blizzards" get ready for a winter of despair w a cpl days of joy. I am not getting my snow fall fetish met by the majority of sne snowfall seasons and i dont plan on trying to convince my self that 50 inches is good. At some point i will relocate to somewhwere that sees 150 minimal annually or at minimum have weekend access to places that do (minimum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 For someone who wants to get slammed regularly w "blizzards" get ready for a winter of despair w a cpl days of joy. I am not getting my snow fall fetish met by the majority of sne snowfall seasons and i dont plan on trying to convince my self that 50 inches is good. At some point i will relocate to somewhwere that sees 150 minimal annually or at minimum have weekend access to places that do (minimum) :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 :weenie: I'm not sure how he lived in Florida without hanging himself in winter considering he thinks 50-60 inches per year is bad. He should go become one of those hippies out at Lake Tahoe...enjoy 400-500 inches of snow per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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