Clinch Leatherwood Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I just hope May isn't as miserable as the Euro ENS version of this April. Days and days of gorgeous weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 I just hope May isn't as miserable as the Euro ENS version of this April. Days and days of gorgeous weather. Euro ens weren't advertising miserable weather for April...they did miss on one system, but otherwise they did a pretty good job. They consistenly showed the torch predictions before the month not verifying and it looks like that is exactly what will happen. We did have a cold start to the month, and recently have had very near-average April temps, but lots of sun have made it quite nice. If we fail to see that rain potential between 5/6-512-ish not materialize, then that would be a fail for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Cloudy and coolish today while areas off to my east are mostly sunny. It's one of those rather rare spring days where being west puts you in the cruddy weather. We could use rain, so this cloudy weather is kind of a waste. Those showers off to my SW are trying oh-so-hard to fight the ridge and get here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Euro ens weren't advertising miserable weather for April...they did miss on one system, but otherwise they did a pretty good job. They consistenly showed the torch predictions before the month not verifying and it looks like that is exactly what will happen. We did have a cold start to the month, and recently have had very near-average April temps, but lots of sun have made it quite nice. If we fail to see that rain potential between 5/6-512-ish not materialize, then that would be a fail for them. Even the GEFS seem like they try to bring some wetter weather in around that timeframe. This blocking eventually will break down so one has to think rain comes sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29, 2013 Author Share Posted April 29, 2013 If May 1st is the unofficial start to the season, when do things come to a close in the fall? While we can get some decent events in August and even September...usually after the 3rd week of July or so things really begin to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/announcement/svrWxAwareWeek/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Euro ens weren't advertising miserable weather for April...they did miss on one system, but otherwise they did a pretty good job. They consistenly showed the torch predictions before the month not verifying and it looks like that is exactly what will happen. We did have a cold start to the month, and recently have had very near-average April temps, but lots of sun have made it quite nice. If we fail to see that rain potential between 5/6-512-ish not materialize, then that would be a fail for them. Yes, Will, the EC and ECENS did a GREAT job with this pattern. I was on the long term desk last week, and did the forecast for this timeframe. It's working out very well. Even the GEFS seem like they try to bring some wetter weather in around that timeframe. This blocking eventually will break down so one has to think rain comes sooner or later. We'll see. Models try to break down big blocks faster than then actually do, usually. We'll see. It is nice to have extended quiet weather...can catch up on training and other stuff at work, and at home!!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 1 more day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 While we can get some decent events in August and even September...usually after the 3rd week of July or so things really begin to slow down. I think a case can be made that if the season starts in May, it should last through a good chunk of August. Using the new SPC climo tools, the severe weather probabilities are roughly the same on September 7th as they are on May 1st. May 1: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/any_severe/122.png Sep 7: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/any_severe/251.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 I think a case can be made that if the season starts in May, it should last through a good chunk of August. Using the new SPC climo tools, the severe weather probabilities are roughly the same on September 7th as they are on May 1st. May 1: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/any_severe/122.png Sep 7: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/climographics/any_severe/251.png I never had any scientific reasoning for using May 1st as a benchmark...I just really did it b/c we are coming off winter/spring and it's more of the excitement that we would start getting severe potential shortly. Plus, typically our biggest events usually come from like Mid-May through first few weeks of July...not saying they've never happened later b/c they have but the chances fall pretty quickly. September can be fun though with low-topped squall lines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 I never had any scientific reasoning for using May 1st as a benchmark...I just really did it b/c we are coming off winter/spring and it's more of the excitement that we would start getting severe potential shortly. Plus, typically our biggest events usually come from like Mid-May through first few weeks of July...not saying they've never happened later b/c they have but the chances fall pretty quickly. September can be fun though with low-topped squall lines! Either way, let's hope it's an active season in these parts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Awesome day. On a bus with rowdy 7th graders heading to PawSox game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Awesome day. On a bus with rowdy 7th graders heading to PawSox game.Beer up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Beer uplol. Gin & tonic would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Welcome to May! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Welcome Jack Frost 42F here and falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 May 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 May 1st Still have 2 more weeks to wait before severe season starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Severe season hasn't even started in the US yet. Pretty quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 I just go by a date when one can reasonably expect decent severe in the area. May 15 is about right, maybe May 20 is better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 I just go by a date when one can reasonably expect decent severe in the area. May 15 is about right, maybe May 20 is better Unofficial start...occasionally we can see severe weather early in the month, but I'd agree that the second half of May is when the season really gets going. On the flip side, September and even October (Windsor Locks tornado) can feature severe weather, but I think most of us agree the season is winding down in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 In the 15 years I've been living in the Valley, the closest confirmed tornado was May 10th 2009 in Sunderland, embedded in a heavy rain event. 2nd closest was July 12, 2006. Strong F2 in Wendell, MA with winds as high as 135 kts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Unofficial start...occasionally we can see severe weather early in the month, but I'd agree that the second half of May is when the season really gets going. On the flip side, September and even October (Windsor Locks tornado) can feature severe weather, but I think most of us agree the season is winding down in August. We've had some good Labor Day events.. September can be fun given a good airmass and not garbage lapse rates. Once monsoon season starts out west EML advection seems to struggle and a lot of times in August/September you can get stuck with a tropical airmass that's no good for big convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 We've had some good Labor Day events.. September can be fun given a good airmass and not garbage lapse rates. Once monsoon season starts out west EML advection seems to struggle and a lot of times in August/September you can get stuck with a tropical airmass that's no good for big convection. Yeah those setups in late August can be brutal where even though it's like 85/68 we still can't even get past 1500 Cape b/c mlvl lapse rates are barely 5 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 I'm finding some new resources from SPC/NWS. Here's the yearly breakdown of severe weather climatology for BOX's portion of southern New England: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 I'm finding some new resources from SPC/NWS. Here's the yearly breakdown of severe weather climatology for BOX's portion of southern New England: That graph is kinda interesting. Why the late May peak followed by a sudden drop-off and then a gradual increase to a second/main peak around July? Is the early June dip a real trend, do you think, or just noise? If it's real, why does it happen? What mechanism could possibly suppress severe weather in early June - or enhance it in late May, depending on how you look at it? Or am I reading too much into a single graph from a limited data-set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 That graph is kinda interesting. Why the late May peak followed by a sudden drop-off and then a gradual increase to a second/main peak around July? Is the early June dip a real trend, do you think, or just noise? If it's real, why does it happen? What mechanism could possibly suppress severe weather in early June - or enhance it in late May, depending on how you look at it? Or am I reading too much into a single graph from a limited data-set? At a quick glance, there appears to be a relatively small sample of reports, so it doesn't take too many to skew the graph. Notice how three days towards the end of May have a spike in reports, with respect to nearby days, especially when compared to early June. Also, I imagine part of this could be the timing of the season. I'd think we might expect a higher probability of strong storm systems earlier in the spring, so combine that with warming temperatures and May can sometimes have a fair amount of severe weather in these parts? EDIT: I looked at nearby locations and the spike is also there, in fact, somewhat more apparent for ENX and OKX. It's pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Severe potential next Saturday Wiz????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Severe generally blows in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 Severe potential next Saturday Wiz????? From today's 12z GFS? Looking at Euro/GFS last night doesn't look like the front would push through until later Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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