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The annual countdown to May 1st thread ©

weatherwiz

By weatherwiz,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah CO and W NE/W KS can be good trhat time of year. Slow movers, photogenic, etc. 

 

I was just talking to vortex95 about the Windsor CO tornado. It was so early in the day when that fired up. I think it was like 55/52 or something..but theta-e means a lot more when you have upslope flow at 5000ft ASL. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I was just talking to vortex95 about the Windsor CO tornado. It was so early in the day when that fired up. I think it was like 55/52 or something..but theta-e means a lot more when you have upslope flow at 5000ft ASL. 

 

Windsor tracked into WY later in the life cycle where it was in the 40s.

 

I posted earlier in this thread I think about the upslope supercells. Just fantastic areas to chase as long as the road network cooperates, but then again you can see for miles. It's a pretty fun evolution to watch too, going from elevated, upslope driven to theta-e eaters as they dig down into the boundary layer on the plains.

 

 

I finally gave up on chasing the stalled front down along the Red River in June of 2009 and booked it 10 hours in the morning to reach this area just east of Pueblo. Well worth the evasive maneuvering.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

Officially book the plane tickets today.  Departing Boston for Kansas City at 2 pm on May the 16th.  Don't land in Kansas City until 930 pm due to a 3 hour layover in JFK.  Plan is to get the rental car and drive to our target area for the next day.  

 

Going to document everything.  Lots of pictures and video hopefully.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Officially book the plane tickets today.  Departing Boston for Kansas City at 2 pm on May the 16th.  Don't land in Kansas City until 930 pm due to a 3 hour layover in JFK.  Plan is to get the rental car and drive to our target area for the next day.  

 

Going to document everything.  Lots of pictures and video hopefully.

 

:thumbsup:  

 

Good luck

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

 

 

 

Awesome addition to the SPC mesoanalysis pages that I just noticed today. They now provide a climatology for lat/lon points (that you double click in the map to call up) base on the tornado environment browser (2003-2011). You can break the variables down by convective mode (supercell vs. QLCS), by statistical graphs, maps, or diurnal breakdown.

 

The work they've done in recent years is top notch.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Which reminds me, for any severe weather weenies (like me) I suggest you look into testing your forecasting skills this spring at http://virtualstormchase.info/.

 

I've played a few times, and it's always interesting to me at least, and the more people virtually chasing the more fun. Now you'll have to sign up before you see anything on that website but the rules are as follows:

 

 

Rules
 

You are the lead forecaster for a storm chasing company. Your
job is to make your clients happy by finding the BIG ONE! On your journeys, you
will be rewarded for different severe phenomena that is spotted.

It's easy to play: each day go to the Virtual Chase forum and check on the "Chase
Status" for the next day. You will also be able to see the status on this
page as well. Basically if the SPC has a Slight or greater risk on their
convective outlook for Day 2 issued at 1730Z, the next day is an official chase
day. You have until 0500 Zulu Time the DAY OF THE EVENT to pick your initial
position within the US. You will not count any points at this initial location
until 1200z. If you do not set an initial position by this entry deadline you
CANNOT chase that day. During the chase, you can choose to move your position
to a new location between 1200z and 2100z (if you submit a move between 0500z
and 1200z, your move will automatically begin at 1200z.) Be warned, though: you
cannot score points while moving, and you will sacrifice any Stay Put bonus
points (explained below)! You may not begin travel to a new location after
2100z; if you are in transit at 2100z you will continue on your way to your
final destination and scoring will begin when you arrive. Points can continue
to be earned up until 1200z the next day. To send in your position, fill out
your "Virtual Chase Entry Form" below. EVERY TIME THAT YOU MOVE TO
ANOTHER LOCATION YOU MUST FILL OUT THIS FORM! Please do not fill in your
"NEXT location" when entering your starting position for the day!
This will alleviate confusion among the staff.

If you decide to move simply enter your next location, and REMEMBER
that you will be judged on how long it takes for you to reach your next
destination. So if you send in a NEW location, you will arrive at that NEW
location after the appropriate traveling time. Travel time will be based on
this formula... Measure the straight line distance from your starting city to
your destination city (in miles); the number of miles between the cities will
be how long, in minutes, it will take you to get there. The mapping program
will do that for you as well and will note your travel distance and time after
you hit SUBMIT for your move.

For example, let's say you are at Dallas, TX as your initial
location. The new SPC discussion comes out and you want to head down to Waco,
TX, and you submit a new form at 2000Z. The distance between Dallas and Waco is
90 miles, so your travel time would be 90 minutes, and you would arrive at
2130Z. But if you send in the report saying that you are moving to Waco at
2130Z this will NOT COUNT because the deadline for making moves is 2100Z. You
may also change your location while you're in the process of moving. If you
decide that you want to go to a city other than Waco 30 minutes into your
travel time, then we would start your move to your new location at that point
(30 miles outside of Dallas on a straight line to Waco).
Scoring: Points are awarded for events occurring within a 25
mile radius of your chosen location:

A hail or wind report gives you 5 points, regardless how
near or far it falls from your spot within that 25 mile radius; a tornado
report more than 10 miles from your spot gives you 10 points; a tornado from
5.01 miles to 10 miles from your spot earns you 15 points; you can score 20
points if there is a tornado report within 5 miles of your location. You only
net points for your best scoring report each day. For example, if both a hail
report and a tornado report fall within your 25-mile radius, you would receive
a total of 10 points for the tornado, NOT 15 points. You also have a chance to
earn some bonus points by sticking with your original starting forecast spot
and not moving AT ALL within the Chase day. We call it the Stay Put bonus.
Hail/Wind reports are worth 1 extra point for a score of 6 points; tornado
reports>10 miles are worth 2 bonus points for a total of 12 points; tornado
reports between 5.01 and 10 miles away earn 3 bonus points for a total of 18
points, and a tornado report that is 5 miles or closer earns 4 bonus points for
a total of 24 points. But be warned, even if you score bonus points before the
2100z move deadline and then make a move after you score, you will sacrifice
those bonus by making that move even though it was your original forecast
location. So gamble wisely!
 

This contest will begin on April 26th
and continues until June 26th.
(Your first entry will be due on the evening of 25 April.)
After each chase day the "Virtual Chase Project
Team" will tally up the scores and post them in this forum, as well as
update the Current Virtual Chase Scores.

The winner will be the chaser with the highest Points per
Chase score. In order to be eligible to win, your number of chases must be at
least 50% of the total number of official chase days! You may whether or not it
is an official day.


For verification, we will use SPC storm reports and
specifically documented damage surveys by NWS Teams. If you would like to
browse Local Storm Reports from NWSFO's you can use this page:
MichiganWxSystem Storm Reports
If you find a report that is not being included, please post it to
this forum
WITH THE REPORT INCLUDED in the text and we will adjust the score
if it is deemed valid. You must give some justification for your reasoning.
Simply saying...well the radar looked really red won't cut it.

 

 

I have always used it as a way to keep my severe weather forecasting and mesoanalysis skills sharp. As you know, NNE isn't exactly a hotbed of activity, so I like to be on my game when the events do pop up. For those of us that can't head out west this season, it's a nice way to play armchair quarterback.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

The virtual storm chase thing sounds cool.  My college buddies and I used to do something similar.  We would submit a county to each other by midnight the night before and see what would happen.  We would get points if something happened within 100 miles.  This sounds a little more challenging with the whole moving around bit.  But we'll see how she goes.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

We had our first decent spring event this morning in the Dallas area with the new radar and local EMs watching.  Funny how 8.5deg/km m/l lapse rates will maximize anything that develops lol.   1.5" hail out of a pretty marginal setup.  That ties the biggest I've ever witnessed personally in New England (not on radar, IMBY that is), which was 8/1/11.  Still we'll be hard pressed to beat that more than a couple times in a whole year.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

No sh*t. Never knew about that one.

 

There was an earlier tornado that day that touched down near BDL and skipped into Agawam. Then the bigger tornado hit near ORH with 1-1.5" diameter hail in ORH. Must have been an impressive supercell.

 

Ironically 10/3 was also the date of the big BDL tornado 9 years later.

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