Predict/Guess the number of tornadoes and the first High Risk of 2013.

[thewxmann]

So.... over/under 900?

[Siberian Express]

So.... over/under 900?

 

over........980 actually. 

 

that was my guess in Jan.    

[Chicago Storm]

Looks to be at a record low level, for now.

That graphic is off by about 100 tors. We're sitting between 700-725 at this time.

 

Even so...We're' not even going to end up in the top 20 of lowest yearly totals in the modern era (Since 1950).

[Stebo]

So.... over/under 900?

 

Over but not by a lot, probably 920

[Chicago Storm]

So.... over/under 900?

Under...easily.

[thewxmann]

SPC numbers for June are out. 121 tornadoes for the month... 603 tornadoes thru the end of June.

[andyhb]

SPC numbers for June are out. 121 tornadoes for the month... 603 tornadoes thru the end of June.

 

In other words, an average year is going to seem like 2008 or 2011 after these last two years...

 

Although comparing to other low activity periods, there have been more high impact events between last year and this year than say, 1986-88.

[tornadotony]

In other words, an average year is going to seem like 2008 or 2011 after these last two years...

 

Although comparing to other low activity periods, there have been more high impact events between last year and this year than say, 1986-88.

Yeah, we're only 1-2 violent tornadoes short of the 1980-2012 average number of violent tornadoes (7.6 per year).

[thewxmann]

Yeah, we're only 1-2 violent tornadoes short of the 1980-2012 average number of violent tornadoes (7.6 per year).

 

Yep, multiple high-profile events this year... Hattiesburg, Granbury, Rozel, Shawnee, Moore, Wayne. And Bennington and El Reno almost made the list if it weren't for the last-minute change in NWS rating policy.

[Ensō]

I also can't help thinking the April 11 Noxubee County, MS long-track wedge ought to have been on that list if there had been any substantial structures in its path near peak intensity. Same thing for the violent-looking Carney, OK wedge on May 19.

[andyhb]

I also can't help thinking the April 11 Noxubee County, MS long-track wedge ought to have been on that list if there had been any substantial structures in its path near peak intensity. Same thing for the violent-looking Carney, OK wedge on May 19.

 

Agreed for both, particularly the latter.

[brettjrob]

I'm not sure about nationwide, but for the Plains, this year had easily the largest number of visible daytime wedges (from different days, anyway) in as long as I can remember. Carney/Shawnee, Moore, Smith Center, Bennington, El Reno, Wayne/Moville... just off the top of my head. Just another indication that despite the pitiful yearly tornado count, this year was quite efficient with what it did produce.

[Chinook]

546 tornado watches, 654 tornadoes (inflation adjusted.) seems like about 1 tornado per tornado watch.

[Chicago Storm]

Updated through August now... 710 tors. 

[thewxmann]

If the final count for Sept-Oct is equal to the preliminary count/reports, we will have 758 tornadoes between Jan 1st and today. That's the same amount of tornadoes as April 2011.

[B-Rent]

Guesses for today?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[andyhb]

If some of the high res models are on the right track, potentially >50.

[Hoosier]

If some of the high res models are on the right track, potentially >50.

 

Well, preliminary unfiltered count is approaching 80 right now.  Obviously some duplicate reports but then there will likely be things that were initially reported as wind damage that end up being confirmed as tornadoes so >50 may not be a bad guess.

[thewxmann]

If we breach the 1000 count I'm going to blame yesterday's outbreak.

[andyhb]

I'm fairly certain that the ratio of violent tornadoes to the overall number of tornadoes this year is going to be higher than many of the more active years (tornado count wise) we've seen over the past 20+ years.

[Quixotic1]

bump. any final numbers?

[Hoosier]

bump. any final numbers?

 

 

Not yet.  We're certainly going to end up well under 1000, possibly under 900 but that remains to be seen.  Total would've been well under 900 if not for the 11/17 outbreak.

[Chicago Storm]

898 looks to be the final number, per the SPC page.

[andyhb]

Closer to 900 than I thought we'd get, mostly thanks to the November 17th event.

[Chicago Storm]

898 looks to be the final number, per the SPC page.

SPC page was updated to show 903 now.