Predict/Guess the number of tornadoes and the first High Risk of 2013.

[thewxmann]

andyhb has a good chance to nail his high risk prediction of 4/9.  I guess we'll find out soon.

 

From the look of things, probably not. We'll probably have to wait a little longer, I suppose.

[B-Rent]

Only 3 HR predictions left that could verify...

[Ian]

May 26

[andyhb]

This isn't looking promising, that's for sure.

[Chinook]

There were only 3 high risks in the 1980s. They started high risk outlooks in 1984.  Maybe the 80's were a relatively safe decade, as far as tornado deaths/injuries were concerned.

[thewxmann]

There were only 3 high risks in the 1980s. They started high risk outlooks in 1984.  Maybe the 80's were a relatively safe decade, as far as tornado deaths/injuries were concerned.

 

The late 1980s were extremely quiet during the Spring.

[David Reimer]

Is it too early to move ahead to 2014?

[JoMo]

Is it too early to move ahead to 2014?

 

It's just mid-April and considering the late season snow and ice on the Plains, maybe the season will get more active in May-June and early July or something.... or the jet stream could retreat to Canada again... who knows. 

[Amped]

4/28

[Ian]

We've gotten spoiled by huge outbreaks on the regular. Still hard not to like the fact that its not summer already like last year.

[andyhb]

It's going to take a lot in the second half of the year and a bit to reach my prediction for the amount of tornadoes...

[Roger Smith]

You could maybe ease off a little now though.

[AcworthWx]

I know I'm Extremely late to the game...........but I would have put my estimation at 1175-1250 range. My guess for the first HR would've been mid-Apr (4/14-4/17). Has anyone seen any mid-year estimations? Could we see another sub 1000 year?

[OKpowdah]

Where we are so far:

 

[B-Rent]

Have we had a HR yet?

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[andyhb]

Have we had a HR yet?

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Nope, not yet. Yesterday was essentially the closest we've been.

[AcworthWx]

Where we are so far:

 

torgraph-big.png

Thanks for the graph, OKpowdah.

[B-Rent]

K. I've been on the road, want sure if they made the upgrade or not.

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[OKpowdah]

About to get our first high risk of the year

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html

[thewxmann]

So, with nearly half of the year over....

Over/under 1000?

 

(For comparison: through June 10th this year we've had 513 reports. Through May 31st last year we had 617 confirmed.)

[andyhb]

I'll say under, that start to the year is going to make it quite difficult.

[brettjrob]

It will take the combination of a few Gulf Coast landfalls and a top-shelf fall season to reach 1000, methinks.

[andyhb]

Can't wait for the media arguments of "climate change leading to less tornadoes"...

[AcworthWx]

Can't wait for the media arguments of "climate change leading to less tornadoes"...

Lol, Andy! I was thinking the same thing the other day.

[Stormchaser11]

Maybe this year, hurricanes will bring the rest of the amount for an average tornado season. Or maybe more tornado outbreaks, because it has been a really late season.

[Chinook]

Yesterday was the true high risk day for wind reports in central Virginia and NC. January 29, 2013 may have qualified as a high risk for tornadoes and wind.

[OKpowdah]

Can't wait for the media arguments of "climate change leading to less tornadoes"...

 

Nah, I doubt the media will look at tornado counts anymore this year, after the last month. After Moore and El Reno, that's all that matters. Might see the media trying to link climate change and EF5's though lol

[andyhb]

Nah, I doubt the media will look at tornado counts anymore this year, after the last month. After Moore and El Reno, that's all that matters. Might see the media trying to link climate change and EF5's though lol

 

Yeah, good point, despite the low overall number of tornadoes, there have been a number of violent tornadoes and/or high impact tornadoes as well.

[Hoosier]

Based on Jan-Apr confirmed and May-Jul prelim, we are probably between 600-650 tornadoes right now. If fall is quiet then we might blow away last year's low total.

[Siberian Express]

Looks to be at a record low level, for now.