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Predict/Guess the number of tornadoes and the first High Risk of 2013.

andyhb

By andyhb,
in Central/Western States

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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

Points to consider:

1) We have a healthy snowpack pretty far south.

2) Persistent Plains drought doesn't really show signs of letting up as of yet.

3) We are perhaps seeing the development of a stronger subtropical jet, more indicative of an El Nino pattern, but we also seem to have traces of a La Nina pattern, with recent highly amplified polar jet shortwave troughs recently, such as the Christmas storm.

I felt pretty decent about some of my 2012 predictions given where we were at this point last year. Granted, skills for long-range tornado forecasting is near zero, but there were some apparent signs to what was going to transpire in 2012. In 2013, the signs conflict. Will the subtropical jet become more dominant, or will we still be affected by high-amplitude polar jet shortwave disturbances in Spring 2013? For my prediction, I'll assume the former, since we are in positive ENSO right now, though weakly. Second, will the Plains drought lessen or become even more severe? Given the answer to #1, I'm going to assume it'll lessen some.

Combine those two factors and the snowpack situation, I'm guessing that JFMA tornado activity remains confined pretty far south and relatively limited (though I wouldn't rule out a decent FL event). I expect May and June to be pretty active on the Plains and into the Midwest and even Southeast, especially the central and northern Plains in late May and June.

So my predictions are:

First High Risk: May 4th

Number of 2013 tornadoes: 1400

I may be a few months off...

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Ground Scouring

Ground Scouring

Posted
Posted

You guys really think this may be a high risk? I will be REALLY surprised if that happens.

A recommendation: I would briefly browse through the main, pinned thread and try to interpret the rationale behind why people think the event may be significant before making your own judgment--just a friendly reminder. There is a lot of material in the main thread showing why conditions are unusually favorable for a potentially historic outbreak, or at least a very notable event for January.

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SquatchinNY

SquatchinNY

Posted
Posted

A recommendation: I would briefly browse through the main, pinned thread and try to interpret the rationale behind why people think the event may be significant before making your own judgment--just a friendly reminder.

Thanks for the tip! I did see them, I am just skeptical of a high risk. SPC seems to think this will be mainly wind.

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Ground Scouring

Ground Scouring

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the tip! I did see them, I am just skeptical of a high risk. SPC seems to think this will be mainly wind.

The outlooks on Day 3 usually do not pinpoint tornado threats when models are just converging toward a solution and some details remain to be ironed out. For instance, convective evolution in big outbreaks is often very unclear until about 36 or fewer hours from the outbreak. So I would not necessarily conclude that the tornado threat will be limited just by following the Day-3 outlook ad verbatim without reading between the lines--such as the ending which clearly indicates that details remain to be worked out and that the potential for a higher tornado risk, as well as an already-high wind risk, is there:

UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

Furthermore, the Day-3 outlook for the Super Tuesday outbreak, which featured 86 or so tornadoes and five EF4s, read as follows:

 

STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR MAINTAINS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 AS FAR N AS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE OH RIVER VALLEY/. WHILE STORMS ARE FORECAST WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD. WITH TIME...EXPECT A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...AND THEN CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WHILE STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- BOTH WITHIN SMALL-SCALE BOWS ALONG THE LARGER CONVECTIVE LINE AS WELL AS WITH ANY STRONGER CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. THEREFORE...TORNADOES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED -- WITH THE POTENTIAL SPREAD ACROSS A BROAD ZONE FROM THE GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND PERHAPS INTO THE OH VALLEY.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day3otlk_20080203_1100.html

 

Further, moisture returns for this event will be at least as pronounced as on 02/05/2008:

 

 

NET RESULT WILL BE PERSISTENT MOISTENING

WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE

PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 60F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS

THE OH RIVER VALLEY.

 

IN ADDITION A STRONGLY FORCED SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR   SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THIS EVENING EWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080205_1630.html

So we can see both discrete supercell activity and a squall line with the same system.

I would expect much more detail in the Day-1/Day-2 outlooks than in the Day-3 outlook.

 

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Ground Scouring

Ground Scouring

Posted
Posted

I am going to be bold and say 01/29/2013.

I will even take a shot at the region. The most likely area for a High Risk between 00Z-06Z 01/29-01/30 is bounded by Marked Tree, AR, to the west; Monticello, AR, and Grenada, MS, to the south; Osceola, AR, and Humboldt, TN, to the north; and Muscle Shoals, AL, to the east. The main threat would in this case remain well to the east of LKZ and initiate around 00Z 01/30.

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