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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

So mreaves and dsaur are coming to Waycross? Oh joy!! :D

I've been to Waycross several times in the past.  Hot, sort of flat, and no stormy weather.  I like my women like that but cities, not so much, lol.  But you do have a swamp, with alligators so it aln't all bad.  If missing the storm by 6 hours and a few hundred miles gets me a trip down there in summer?  Forget it :)    T

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
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Andrea's convection is currently displaced well to the east of the center. Unless it changes I could see most of the heaviest rainfall remaining offshore of GA, SC, and NC. The fact that a juicy tropical system is interacting with a frontal boundary should pop off plenty of storms but due to it have a decent forward motion and the displaced convection I could see this as a bullet getting dodged wrt flooding rains. The winds should be a non factor for everyone inland as well.

 

I was looking at some of the forecast wind maps, and it was pretty low end, if any at all.  The quick spin ups could be an issue imo, especially in FL.  I agree with your thinking about the axis of heaviest precip possibly staying in the Atlantic if the tracks are to be believed.  TORS are especially possible in this kind of setup (regardless of track interacting with land) and I don't want to throw that option out the door although it's possibly many see nothing severe like that.  All about storm track.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Andrea's convection is currently displaced well to the east of the center. Unless it changes I could see most of the heaviest rainfall remaining offshore of GA, SC, and NC. The fact that a juicy tropical system is interacting with a frontal boundary should pop off plenty of storms but due to it have a decent forward motion and the displaced convection I could see this as a bullet getting dodged wrt flooding rains. The winds should be a non factor for everyone inland as well.

Thats what it's been looking like, but I sure hope the Nam is right, somehow.  I want me some of that good tropical rain, not the left overs from a meandering front while the goodness goes flying by out to sea.  T

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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I was looking at some of the forecast wind maps, and it was pretty low end, if any at all. The quick spin ups could be an issue imo, especially in FL. I agree with your thinking about the axis of heaviest precip possibly staying in the Atlantic if the tracks are to be believed. TORS are especially possible in this kind of setup (regardless of track interacting with land) and I don't want to throw that option out the door although it's possibly many see nothing severe like that. All about storm track.

Several waterspouts potentially offshore.

Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using using Tapatalk Tapatalk 2

post-5947-137048154436.jpg

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
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Thats what it's been looking like, but I sure hope the Nam is right, somehow.  I want me some of that good tropical rain, not the left overs from a meandering front while the goodness goes flying by out to sea.  T

And the NAM yields. What a worthless piece of garbage model outside of 24 hours.

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jburns

jburns

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 Until a tor hits your area and destroys your life.  Then it's a "omg, we didn't see it coming" deal right?  No offense, but a lame trop storm/remnants can even spin up something of your worst nightmares.

 

Yep. It's not a good idea to write these things off too early. There's quite a history of these early season "lame" tropical storms flooding large areas.  We shall see.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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Yep. It's not a good idea to write these things off too early. There's quite a history of these early season "lame" tropical storms flooding large areas. We shall see.

Possible tornado headed towards Marathon. Then another S of that one. Both showing strong rotation. This might be one of those cyclones that produces a lot of tornadoes. Impressive supercells.

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
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This is totally the weather weenie in me... But I hope I have a few super cells to drive through tomorrow when I'm driving from Sarasota to Fort Lauderdale. One going across Alligator Alley would be entertaining since I know it won't pick up much save a few gators and snakes. Lol! The peninsula is going to get quite a bit of rain and meh winds. I wouldn't put too much hope in the NAM, nor the RPM for that matter, as it isn't the greatest of tropical models. The GFS and euro looked good to me earlier this week and still do at this time.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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This is totally the weather weenie in me... But I hope I have a few super cells to drive through tomorrow when I'm driving from Sarasota to Fort Lauderdale. One going across Alligator Alley would be entertaining since I know it won't pick up much save a few gators and snakes. Lol! The peninsula is going to get quite a bit of rain and meh winds. I wouldn't put too much hope in the NAM, nor the RPM for that matter, as it isn't the greatest of tropical models. The GFS and euro looked good to me earlier this week and still do at this time.

You should go storm chasing.
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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
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You should go storm chasing.

I'm considering it. I'll see how things are laid out in the morning and maybe go to a beach between here and Naples and see what I can find. There will definitely be waterspouts/tornadoes out there... But will I be able to see them before they hit me is another story. That and I have to be in Lauderdale by late afternoon, so it doesn't give me a huge window.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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Andrea starting to look pretty decent all things considered. The plane found a FL wind of 63 knts and the radar out of Tampa is starting to show better banding setting up around the eastern side of the center at least. So she is having a good diurnal max and if she can keep it up we could maybe see her get up to 50-60mph before landfall.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Lolxz 998mb. CMC ftw before today's run.

Yeah she is not doing to bad wouldnt be surprised to see a 50 or even 60 mph storm at 5am if it keeps this up, the llc is trying really hard to tuck up under those thunderstorms, its still a half a storm but the NE quad might actually be a little rough by the time it gets to shore, and there is a buoy 60 miles SSW of the center that is still gusting over 40 mph so while it is lopsided the dry side isnt totally lame. I bet we see quite a few tornados warnings in Florida today.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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Yeah she is not doing to bad wouldnt be surprised to see a 50 or even 60 mph storm at 5am if it keeps this up, the llc is trying really hard to tuck up under those thunderstorms, its still a half a storm but the NE quad might actually be a little rough by the time it gets to shore, and there is a buoy 60 miles SSW of the center that is still gusting over 40 mph so while it is lopsided the dry side isnt totally lame. I bet we see quite a few tornados warnings in Florida today.

Tornado warning ongoing right now. Had very strong rotation and wouldn't be surprised if a tornado was on it about 5 minutes ago.

Edit: Now two tornado warnings.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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60mph 997mb at 5am, looking pretty good too. On the new track the center basically goes up I-95 in NC as a hybrid 45 mph storm although obviously chances of winds being anywhwere near that sustained are slim away from the coast. Heavy rain along the center path and tornados to the east of track being the biggest threats, Florida has had several nasty long track couplets that seem to have produced tornados off and on in and around Tampa in the middle of the night so at least if that happens here it will be daytime.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
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60mph 997mb at 5am, looking pretty good too. On the new track the center basically goes up I-95 in NC as a hybrid 45 mph storm although obviously chances of winds being anywhwere near that sustained are slim away from the coast. Heavy rain along the center path and tornados to the east of track being the biggest threats, Florida has had several nasty long track couplets that seem to have produced tornados off and on in and around Tampa in the middle of the night so at least if that happens here it will be daytime.

I just got put under a tropical storm warning. Just yesterday we were expecting just rain. No one thought it would get this strong. Most were expecting a weak TD or ts.
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
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60mph 997mb at 5am, looking pretty good too. On the new track the center basically goes up I-95 in NC as a hybrid 45 mph storm although obviously chances of winds being anywhwere near that sustained are slim away from the coast. Heavy rain along the center path and tornados to the east of track being the biggest threats, Florida has had several nasty long track couplets that seem to have produced tornados off and on in and around Tampa in the middle of the night so at least if that happens here it will be daytime.

 

I hadn't even thought about the tornado threat. I hope it won't be that big when it gets here tomorrow.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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At least here the rainfall wont be that big of a issue we can handle 2-4" of rain with little problem unless it all falls in a hr or two and even then it wont be much of a problem. I think the biggest worry will be the tornado threat the SPC highlights the threat but again its kinda hard to determine just how much of the threat there is. 

 

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...

...COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES INCLUDING CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA...
CURRENT TROPICAL STORM ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY...REFERENCE NHC FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT
INTENSITY/CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM AS IT RELATES TO TORNADO
/PERHAPS WIND DAMAGE/ POTENTIAL...WITH A BIT STRONGER/DEEPER
SOLUTION FOR THE 12Z/5TH ECMWF AS COMPARED TO LATER 00Z NAM/GFS
GUIDANCE.

REGARDLESS...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELD IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST
VA. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
TORNADOES...PERHAPS ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED WIND DAMAGE
RISK...ESPECIALLY FOR NEAR-COASTAL AREAS FROM FRIDAY LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS WHEN DESTABILIZATION /ALBEIT WEAK/
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE CONSEQUENTIAL. 

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