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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Here is something we haven't seen in a while in the Atlantic which is well above normal instability. We are at late July/early August levels already. If this continues, that does not bode well for the upcoming hurricane season. The past 3 years, even with 19 storms each year, have had below normal instability.

2u70tqb.gif

55h6wj.jpg

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

That's a fun comments section there.

 

Most comments sections are, nowadays.  People's ugly natures really come out when there is plenty of anonymity with which to hide behind.  It makes you wonder where all the decent people have gone.  Maybe they've found their way here...    :)   ...and that's why I enjoy this forum so much.

 

(I'm not advocating either side of the political spectrum over the other, by the way.  They both have their real jerks and a few eloquent orators.  Too bad there exist more of the former and less of the latter.)

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

What if our first named storm is a "B" named TD that the Pacific spit out? Does that count? :lol: If it does, then my post in the banter thread from earlier this month isn't too bad. :P

 

:lol: It probably has EVERYTHING to do with me finally seeing hail. :wub:

Thanks, but I don't know how I pulled the 2nd place finish nor how it was calculated... But I'll take it! ^_^

As for when the first hurricane will happen... Probably not until the end of June. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see a disturbance or TC spin up in the Caribbean or eastern Gulf during the last week of May. ;)

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Lol, Cman, if it isn't  named Andrea and named on the 6th, in the Carrib.  I'm not sure it counts :)  But Burns will have to be the final arbiter.  He's the decider, since it's his thread.

  Are you getting these nice clouds?  Been mostly cloudy for two days, a lot of the time.  Anything to keep those temps down!!  T

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Lol, Cman, if it isn't  named Andrea and named on the 6th, in the Carrib.  I'm not sure it counts :)  But Burns will have to be the final arbiter.  He's the decider, since it's his thread.

  Are you getting these nice clouds?  Been mostly cloudy for two days, a lot of the time.  Anything to keep those temps down!!  T

 

:lol: Fine.............. :P

 

Your June 6th "mole"cast seems like it could work out quite nicely for ya! Especially if the GFS continues to spin something up in the GoM, which I know it will since I go on vacation next Wednesday to coastal South Carolina. Something good always happens when I take time off.

 

Oh, and how much closer can Barbara be to the Bay of Campeche and NOT "technically" be in it?? I mean, come on! haha!

 

The clouds have really only been a factor this morning. We've topped out at 89/90 the past 4 days and well on our way to day #5 despite all the clouds.

post-1807-0-91637600-1369928323_thumb.gi

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Lol that's not the center.

Meh... I think they kind of just guessed where the low-level "center" is... Barbara is getting sheared apart and that shear has displaced the mid-level circulation away from the apparent low-level center. I think the NHC decided to keep it in Mexico to keep from switching basins and confusing people. That's just my opinion though. :lol::P

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

:lol: Fine.............. :P

 

Your June 6th "mole"cast seems like it could work out quite nicely for ya! Especially if the GFS continues to spin something up in the GoM, which I know it will since I go on vacation next Wednesday to coastal South Carolina. Something good always happens when I take time off.

 

Oh, and how much closer can Barbara be to the Bay of Campeche and NOT "technically" be in it?? I mean, come on! haha!

 

The clouds have really only been a factor this morning. We've topped out at 89/90 the past 4 days and well on our way to day #5 despite all the clouds.

 I still haven't officially made it to 87 yet.  Even though the sun did come out today a good bit after noon, it still don't break past 85.

  I'm pretty sure a hurricane that forms over land, and never sets foot in the sea, is a Lanocane, and they don't count up on the scale very high, lol. 

  Enjoy SC.  I love to go the Edisto Beach St Park because we can take the pup.  Great place in the fall to stay in one of the cabins.   T

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
Posted

Breaking on FOX News.

METEOROLOGIST ACCUSES NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OF FALSIFYING AND MANIPULATING DATA

 

WHAT DID OBAMA KNOW, AND WHEN DID HE KNOW IT?

:lol: :lol: :lol::P

 

I can't wait to see if the Euro & GFS are correct. The GFS has been hinting at this region for a few weeks now (since about May 10th when it started sniffing out Barbara). The Euro has it a bit more consolidated than the GFS by the end of next week but still very similar... This is also in line with the pulse of the MJO.

post-1807-0-11872500-1370002072_thumb.pn

post-1807-0-40781000-1370002007_thumb.pn

Both models try to take this towards the central Gulf Coast as a sloppy-ish mess. This thing, Andrea?, is going to be fighting some wind shear, so I'd be surprised if it strengthened a lot.

 

Oh, and here's the website I got the GFS image from: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

I figured I'd share since I like it a lot... specially for the tropics!

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

00z models seem to be trending more N with the track of the potential cyclone. GFS also shows a much more organized system rather than the distorted elongated sheared slop it showed before. WPC(HPC) may need to move the Heavy rainfall area more northward instead of over S FL, but the it's just one run though. CMC now giving N FL and S GA the hurricane and then it moves North. Crazy solution for June if it were to verify. NAM is bull**** along with NAVGEM. Maybe can add CMC to the bull**** list along with the JMA. GFS ensemble shows nothing if interest. 18z GFS ensemble did though.

Invest 90L is also down to a 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but that because nothing will happen till after then.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

00z models seem to be trending more N with the track of the potential cyclone. GFS also shows a much more organized system rather than the distorted elongated sheared slop it showed before. WPC(HPC) may need to move the Heavy rainfall area more northward instead of over S FL, but the it's just one run though. CMC now giving N FL and S GA the hurricane and then it moves North. Crazy solution for June if it were to verify. NAM is bull**** along with NAVGEM. Maybe can add CMC to the bull**** list along with the JMA. GFS ensemble shows nothing if interest. 18z GFS ensemble did though.

Invest 90L is also down to a 0% chance of development in the next 48 hours, but that because nothing will happen till after then.

Thanks for the analy sis but please use less f*** bad words.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306030034
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013060206, , BEST, 0, 207N, 875W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 91, 2013060212, , BEST, 0, 212N, 872W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 91, 2013060218, , BEST, 0, 216N, 870W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 
AL, 91, 2013060300, , BEST, 0, 220N, 868W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

 

 

All the global models on their latest runs bring it up the east coast either just inland or right along the coast, after hitting west central Fl. 

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Ships model doesn't do much. Only models that do something are the Euro, Ukmet, and CMC. GFS has nothing. Thinking it's suffering from convective feedback. Has vortices everywhere in the Gulf. Maybe 91L pulls a little surprise on us. HPC seemed pretty bullish on development.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

My first thread started.  Thought since this system should get picked up soon and is most likely heading to the SE, we might want a discussion for tracks and models.

 

215509_W5_NL_sm.gif

 

 

 

storm_91.gif

 

aal91_2013060512_intensity_early.png

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OFMEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDSTO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SATELLITEAND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLYDEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ISSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGHENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME ATROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERNFLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGHCHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURINGTHE COUPLE OF DAYS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  ADDITIONALINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGHSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND INPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE ORNATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.&&HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BEFOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.$$FORECASTER BROWNNNNN
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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

Looks like the first mini-supercells are starting to form over SW FL.  I'd expect the quantity and quality of the mini-sups to only increase tonight and on into tomorrow as LL helicity increases.  The threat should move south to north from the lower peninsula through the panhandle from now through tomorrow evening. 

 

post-378-0-51699500-1370462689_thumb.gif

 

 

Key West VAD profile shows the low-level turning nicely. 

 

post-378-0-68852400-1370462697_thumb.gif

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