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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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1300m

1300m

Posted
Posted

 The 12Z Tue GFS is certainly an interesting run for the NE GOM with the most robust landfall yet for Invest 97-L, a 1007 mb symmetrical tropical surface low (it looks like a tropical storm to me) hitting the FL Big Bend Sat. night 10/5-6. Afterward, it stays pretty intact and leads to some strong winds and significant to very heavy/flooding rains in N FL, SE GA, E Carolinas, and E VA 10/6-7. Heaviest rains: ~10" Tallahassee Apalachicola area!

 

 Is this still another false alarm from the GFS? It already did that (TS hits on the US Gulf coast) in  Sep. and Aug. for two different Caribbean invests that ended up never even becoming a TD. What's different about this one is that the system does look more impressive now and the GFS has actually brought it back for a good number of runs now after having dropped it for a couple of days.

 

 As modeled, this would certainly be a significant/interesting weather maker for parts of the SE US. Moreover, there's no way to know whether or not it is actually being underdone, especially considering we're dealing with something over the very warm western Caribbean (~29C/84 F). This is a classic track for early to mid Oct. So, it is quite believable climowise. Maybe we finally have something exciting to watch for the US.

Looks like the GFS might be too weak with it's surface reflection. At 925 mb it has 50-60 kts of wind in a well-defined closed circulation. The pattern appears pretty favorable for development in the GOM; one negative I could see is if some of that drier air in the southern Gulf were to get entrained in it, but the overall pattern looks pretty good. A nice tropical rain would do my yard good, that's for sure.

 

It's also interesting that the CMC does nothing with this system, where as it has picked out other potential disturbances and gone bonkers with them. Might be a good sign in this case, who knows.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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I just spoke to the God of the tropics.  I asked him where our storms were this year. His reply, "You want named storms?  Wait for winter and watch the Weather Channel."  It's not good to butt hurt a weather god.

 

Lol!

 

Well, we may soon finally get a named storm that doesn't go fishing. So, you may need to update your subtitle shortly. We'll see.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

If this does develop, what will be the name?  I'm too lazy to check.

We need this thing to go a bit further east and track through Raleigh.  Things are getting a bit dry around here.

 

Karen.

 

 The 12Z Euro remains much further west than the 12Z GFS (~350 miles) and strung out/much less interesting, similar to recent Euro runs. Fwiw, keep in mind that the Euro did much better than the GFS for two invests during Aug.-Sep. that were in the western Caribbean that never even became TDs. The Euro had stayed weak while the GFS had predicted a US Gulf coast TS hit on multiple runs. Will this be different? We are now much later in the season.

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Lindsaywx

Lindsaywx

Posted
Posted

Karen.

The 12Z Euro remains much further west than the 12Z GFS (~350 miles) and strung out/much less interesting, similar to recent Euro runs. Fwiw, keep in mind that the Euro did much better than the GFS for two invests during Aug.-Sep. that were in the western Caribbean that never even became TDs. The Euro had stayed weak while the GFS had predicted a US Gulf coast TS hit on multiple runs. Will this be different? We are now much later in the season.

GFS seems to be an outlier to the east right now

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1300m

1300m

Posted
Posted

Looks like we will have Karen within the hour! Hopefully , the GFS will be right and strengthen her to a high end TS or low end hurricane. That would bring more of the heavier rain to the Carolina's and Georgia .

 

Looks like another model showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS in regards to the track/strength/evolution of this one. There have been several instances over this past spring and summer that the GFS has handed it to the Euro, so it will be interesting to see which model is right this time. The Euro and Canadian both did really poorly with trying to rapidly develop a post-frontal low and take it into the northeast this past weekend as the most recent example of the GFS outperforming the Euro.

 

I feel almost odd saying that I favor the GFS solution over the Euro, but based on the past several months performance and looking at the hurricane track guidance, I would have to say I'm cautiously leaning towards the GFS at this point.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like another model showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS in regards to the track/strength/evolution of this one. There have been several instances over this past spring and summer that the GFS has handed it to the Euro, so it will be interesting to see which model is right this time. The Euro and Canadian both did really poorly with trying to rapidly develop a post-frontal low and take it into the northeast this past weekend as the most recent example of the GFS outperforming the Euro.

 

I feel almost odd saying that I favor the GFS solution over the Euro, but based on the past several months performance and looking at the hurricane track guidance, I would have to say I'm cautiously leaning towards the GFS at this point.

 

 We can already say the Euro has busted badly in being way too weak and too far west though the 0Z Thu Euro made some better adjustments for the early part just north of the Yucatan. The GFS can already be declared the winner of those two models in my opinion. This follows two western Caribbean invests (Aug/Sep) for which the Euro's lack of development trounced the runs of the GFS that had them hit the US gulf coast as a TS.

 

 Main BB Karen thread for those interested in case some haven't seen it:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41326-tropical-storm-karen/

 

 Mr. Burns, time to change the subtitle here lol.

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El Kabong

El Kabong

Posted
Posted

Rainfall has been sparse of late so maybe Karen will bring a nice soaking rain to most of the interior southeast.  The current HPC QPF 7-day map has the bulk of the rain to my west (we are only in the .75 zone), but if the GFS track proves to be correct, the totals for central and southeast Georgia should ramp up quite a bit.  The precip maps will certainly go through some changes over the next few days (sounds like winter!).  Today will hopefully yield a stronger consensus as the GFS and Euro once again have a tropical system showdown.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

NHC takes Karen directly through the Atlanta metro

 

I think they maybe using a blend of euro,gfs, nam for their forecast track. While I have mixed feelings about that I kind of hope they're right. I wouldn't mind the pouring heavy rain near the center either according to mostly the gfs.

 

But it would be more exciting to be on the eastern side of the low.... more instability and shear greater chances of supercell thunderstorms, wind, and weak tornadoes. If their forecast map happens to verify then could be interesting as far as severe weather goes.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

It looks to me like the NHC track takes it through Macon or Griffin. If that's the case wouldn't rainfall amounts be less in North GA? I thought usually the heaviest rain is to the east of the center.

Darn didn't take long for them to adjust the track.

 

Typically yes the worst weather and rainfall is in the E-NE side of the storm.

 

But in all likely hood this will not make landfall as purelly tropical system. It will be interacting with a 500mb trough as it moves north so could be extra tropical by the time landfall or after. Depending on exactly where it really starts interacting will determine where the heaviest rain is. Right now it is lop sided mainly to the east of the center with the deepest storms. As time goes on with interaction from the trough the deepest storms/cloud cover may start moving to the North and NW side of the LP.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Its still evolving so why you calling it quits already? Yeah you may not have the highest rain fall potential as the 85 corridor but its not going to be a deluege and desert from N GA to S GA especially if the low tracks through central GA. There will be atleast a couple squall lines move through your area before the storm lifts NE and dryer air comes in from the W,SW.

I should be on the E side of the storm, but it looks too far away to give me any action. Ugh.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

But it would be more exciting to be on the eastern side of the low.... more instability and shear greater chances of supercell thunderstorms, wind, and weak tornadoes. If their forecast map happens to verify then could be interesting as far as severe weather goes.

Go on. The only thing I like about tropical cyclones is the tornado threat. What will make it interesting as far as severe goes?
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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Its still evolving so why you calling it quits already? Yeah you may not have the highest rain fall potential as the 85 corridor but its not going to be a deluege and desert from N GA to S GA especially if the low tracks through central GA. There will be atleast a couple squall lines move through your area before the storm lifts NE and dryer air comes in from the W,SW.

Haha. I don't kno.
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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

From GSP discussion...

 

THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE A VERY HIGH
PROBABLILITY OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NE GA/WESTERN
CAROLINAS CIRCA 7 OCT. WPC AND OUR LOCAL CONS DATA HAVE CATEGORICAL
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. SPECIFIC STORM ANALOGS LIKE
TS HANNA IN SEPT 2002 THAT HAD A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CURRENT NHC
TRACK PRODUCED 5-7 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND
NE GA...WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. IF THE TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT 12Z GFS WITH AN ANALOG OF TS HELENE IN SEPT 2000 (A TRACK
ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS). GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS
UPSTATE SC WITH AORUND 1 INCH ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE
GA. HENCE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT IN THE HWO.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Go on. The only thing I like about tropical cyclones is the tornado threat. What will make it interesting as far as severe goes?

 Heavy rain, thunder and lightening, weak tornadoes and straight line winds.

 

What more do you want? The gates of hell to freeze over and hailstones the size of semi trucks to start falling? lol.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

From GSP discussion...

 

THE CIPS ANALOGS INDICATE A VERY HIGH

PROBABLILITY OF 2 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NE GA/WESTERN

CAROLINAS CIRCA 7 OCT. WPC AND OUR LOCAL CONS DATA HAVE CATEGORICAL

POPS FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THAT.

THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY HEAVY RAIN. SPECIFIC STORM ANALOGS LIKE

TS HANNA IN SEPT 2002 THAT HAD A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE CURRENT NHC

TRACK PRODUCED 5-7 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND

NE GA...WITH 1-3 INCHES ELSEWHERE. IF THE TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE

CURRENT 12Z GFS WITH AN ANALOG OF TS HELENE IN SEPT 2000 (A TRACK

ACROSS THE SC MIDLANDS). GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS

UPSTATE SC WITH AORUND 1 INCH ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAIN

WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE

GA. HENCE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT IN THE HWO.

 

Greg fishel a local met wanted to give reference to hurricane Floyd as well. As far as tropical interaction assoication with a front I could see that. But thats like comparing apples and oranges. These two storms totally different magnitudes.

 

But props to GSP. Helene of 2000 maybe a good analog for this given storm.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Heavy rain, thunder and lightening, weak tornadoes and straight line winds.

What more do you want? The gates of hell to freeze over and hailstones the size of semi trucks to start falling? lol.

Lol I think you read my post wrong. I was asking what will make things interesting?

18z GFS much further east. Moves right over me.

NWS JACKSONVILLE DISCUSSION

SUN & MON...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED SUN AFTN & SUN NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN BEGINS TO TRACK NE OVER THE SE STATES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...THE JAX FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE STORM...RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM TO POSITION OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD INFLOW FROM THE GOMEX. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSESSING THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND STRONG WINDS SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WILL BE OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL SUN. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES OF 50-60% OVER INLAND SE GA/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.

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