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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

I'm curious as to the thoughts of our southeast crew about Dorian?

 

Just looking at satellite, Dorian has not improved significantly nor has it weakened a whole lot. It's still in the formative stages. There have been times of good convective coverage and times that the LLC and MLC have disconnected from each other. All in all...Dorian is still a storm that is not well developed but holding together.

 

Looking at the models...the GFS (which unveiled its new version today) has Dorian's 500mb reflection never getting well developed and it tangling with Hispanola, which was different from the runs yesterday...maybe a product of the new changes in the model.

 

Euro also not very bullish on development...

 

I still think if Dorian makes it to Sunday even in a condition like its currently in, we will be in business for some US threat.

 

Looking at the synoptic setup, there still seems to be an idea of a weakness in the Southwest Atlantic setting up next week and then a trough that could hint at a possible re-curve or could put areas north of Florida in play if Dorian got to that point.

 

I just think its funny how the Bermuda High had been a very strong influence during the months of June and July but now that we have a possible tropical threat, the ridge is breaking down enough to allow for a track up the east coast.

 

I personally dont really pay to much attention to them until they get to 55-60Wish....Dorian looks ok and I dont put much faith in the models outside of 48-72 hrs with these things. Remember most models didnt have Dorian surviving much less getting to the stage its at now 2-3 days ago. I also agree that its odd the models break down the ridge and they do tend to over do that in the longer range sometimes...

 

The biggest "worry" I have is a storm that pulls a Hugo or Fran type track, and hits right onto Jacksonville NC that would be about worst case scenario for my part of the world and pretty much what we got with Fran. Storms on the recurve tend to be on the downswing but the ones that get turned back left by a ridge building in hold up or get stronger as they run in. I like canes and being in them is a lot of fun for a wind freak like myself but Fran was as bad as I ever wanna see onem I will be perfectly happy with Bertha or Irenes but it has been awhile since we had something worse so I do worry that with the Bermuda High out there we might see a more direct hit. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

If Dorian does end up dissipating over open water or over Hispaniola, it would be doing what about 1 in 4 July-Aug CV storms have done since ~1960...i.e., it is a rather common outcome. It is about as common as a US hit for these types of storms in July-Aug.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

As has been noted on the main tropical thread, Invest 91L has been assigned to the former Dorian and a plane may be sent this afternoon to investigate.

 

Again, the GFS and Euro both show a good mid to upper level reflection, just need to get a surface low to form again. Better keep an eye on this for the Bahamas and Florida. Will look at the 12z analysis and then post some more comments, probably on the July Medium Range thread, cause I think the synoptic setup for this to affect Florida or the Southeast.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Recon on the way, I think they might find some west winds so this will be TD Dorian again by 5pm perhaps if it does manage to maintain and continue to organize. Overall things dont look to bad out in front but it appears to be a legit threat to Florida or maybe up the coast to NC depending on the timing of the turn....this is all assuming it does manage to get going good again....the intensity models seem pretty aggressive though so this should be a interesting 5-7 days...

 

 

12Z run 

 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

The rems of Dorian really look to be getting its act together ( again) off Miami this time though no shear so it looks decent for a upgrade at the rate it appears to be organizing 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

One of the lamest cyclones in recent memory... I wish it would just die already.

CSU says nothing likely until at least the 16th.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/august_2_2013.pdf

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

One of the lamest cyclones in recent memory... I wish it would just die already.

CSU says nothing likely until at least the 16th.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/august_2_2013.pdf

 

The question is do they bother with advisories etc if this thing isnt going to get much more organized than say a TD and get sheared out in 20-24 hrs. I am sure the folks at NHC are wishing the same thing you are as far as this thing dying, but it looks pretty good and if it has a good Dmax then they may have to classify it since its so close to land and any westward drift could bring weak TS conditions onshore. Be crappy to have to go with TS warnings for the central FL coastline for a minimal storm but if they dont and it happens people will crucify them for it. I can hear Bastardi now.....

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

000

ABNT20 KNHC 022341

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE

FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY

NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS

EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN

UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...

50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT

WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

No trigger pulled but upped to 50%

They are in a pickle with no recon scheduled.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

000

ABNT20 KNHC 022341

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE

FLORIDA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF DORIAN...IS MOVING SLOWLY

NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS

ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS

EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN

UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...

50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT

48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT

WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS

ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

No trigger pulled but upped to 50%

They are in a pickle with no recon scheduled.

 

Its a good call at this point if there is a area with sustained TD or TS winds it extremely small at this point, its been fun to watch throughout the day though. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

The combo of analogs for cool US Augusts and neutral negative ENSO (both of which are heavily favored) tells me, as per my earlier posts, that the US is likely to be threatened with a major hurricane this season. I already predicted a few days ago that the US will be hit in 2013 with the first major hurricane since 2005. Since 1950, 38% (24) of the 63 seasons had a major H hit the US.

Since 1950, there have been eight seasons with cool US Augusts that were also within the neutral negative to weak Nina ENSO range based on ONI for ASO. A whopping 7 of those eight seasons had at least one MH hit on the US:

-1950: 2 MH, Easy and King
-1964: 2 MH, Hilda and Isbell (Isbell may have hit as only a 2. Will recheck.)
-1967: 1 MH, Beulah
-1971: only 1 of the 8 with no MH hit (though there were 2 H hits and Edith had nearly 100 mph sustained winds when it hit LA)
-1974: 1 MH, Carmen
-1985: 1 MH, Elena
-1989: 1 MH, Hugo
-1992: 1 MH with 2 hits, Andrew

So, 1992 was the last season with a cool August and neutral negative to weak La Nina ENSO.

10 MH hits: 1 SC, 2 E FL, 2 W FL, 1 MS, 3 LA, 1 TX

10 MH hit dates: 8/24, 8/26, 9/2, 9/5, 9/8, 9/20, 9/21, 10/3, 10/14, 10/17

So, we're still not even within forecasting sight of the earliest of these major H US hits.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

The combo of analogs for cool US Augusts and neutral negative ENSO (both of which are heavily favored) tells me, as per my earlier posts, that the US is likely to be threatened with a major hurricane this season. I already predicted a few days ago that the US will be hit in 2013 with the first major hurricane since 2005. Since 1950, 38% (24) of the 63 seasons had a major H hit the US.

Since 1950, there have been eight seasons with cool US Augusts that were also within the neutral negative to weak Nina ENSO range based on ONI for ASO. A whopping 7 of those eight seasons had at least one MH hit on the US:

-1950: 2 MH, Easy and King

-1964: 2 MH, Hilda and Isbell (Isbell may have hit as only a 2. Will recheck.)

-1967: 1 MH, Beulah

-1971: only 1 of the 8 with no MH hit (though there were 2 H hits and Edith had nearly 100 mph sustained winds when it hit LA)

-1974: 1 MH, Carmen

-1985: 1 MH, Elena

-1989: 1 MH, Hugo

-1992: 1 MH with 2 hits, Andrew

So, 1992 was the last season with a cool August and neutral negative to weak La Nina ENSO.

10 MH hits: 1 SC, 2 E FL, 2 W FL, 1 MS, 3 LA, 1 TX

10 MH hit dates: 8/24, 8/26, 9/2, 9/5, 9/8, 9/20, 9/21, 10/3, 10/14, 10/17

So, we're still not even within forecasting sight of the earliest of these major H US hits.

 

Good information.....thanks for doing the research and for posting.

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

We might have a tropical depression later on today or tomorrow...

 

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY OR ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

 

Tropical Depression status is also imminent for Invest 92L (currently in the Caribbean)

 

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Fwiw, the 6Z 8/24 gfs has a TD form ~day 7 and it hits the Leewards to PR days 10-11 as a TS. It then hits S FL as a 'cane day 14. No one model run in week 2 by itself is worth much at all as far as specifics are concerned. However, due to the unusually strong phase 1 MJO persistent predictions, which is about as favorable an MJO as can exist near peak based on actual history, the general ideas of the runs are going to start getting my attention more than the usual. Now we have the latest Euro and GFS op. runs suggesting a westward to WNWard moving TC near the Leewards day 10 and in a position to quite possibly threaten the US in about two weeks. The runs are obviously going to waffle, but we'll see if a general threatening trend starts to establish itself over the next few days of runs. The last time we had this ideal of an MJO setup near peak season was in 1979, when two long trackers, David and Frederic, became monsters at some point (cat.4-5) and ultimately hit the US. (Aside: I was hit directly by David in Savannah..it was a big mess and it was only a borderline 1-2).

 

 Similar to 2013, early to mid August 1979 was quiet with regard to geneses with none 8/1-24. Then the basin suddenly woke up for the last week of August three days after the MJO entered phase 1 from 8 and then intensified there.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

. 10 Strongest MJO phase 1, 2 peaks during 8/21-9/20 since 1975: TC geneses when MJO 1.50+ in phase 1 or 2 that later became H’s

 

-3.08 peak 8/28/79: cat 5 David, cat. 4 Frederic, cat 2 Gloria

-2.21 peak 9/5/81: cat 1 Emily, cat 3 Floyd, cat 2 Gert

-2.07 peak 9/19/89: none

-2.01 peak 9/4/83: cat 1 Chantal

-2.01 peak 9/20/04: cat 1 Lisa

-1.98 peak 8/23/99: cat 2 Dennis

-1.92 peak 8/26/11: none

-1.90 peak 8/29/07: cat 5 Felix

-1.89 peak 8/30/88: cat 1 Debby

-1.88 peak 8/23/08: cat 4 Gustav

 

 

 

 So, there were geneses of TC’s during these 10 strongest amplitude periods in phases 1 and 2 that later became 12 H’s (5 major) and these resulted in TC’s during  8 of the 10 periods that later became H’s.

Three hit the US as a H, two of them being major H hits.

 

 

 

II. 10 longest 1.50+ amplitude phase 1, 2 that peak 8/21-9/20 since 1975: TC geneses that later became H’s

 

-18 days 8/22-9/8/79: cat 5 David, cat. 4 Frederic, cat 2 Gloria

-11 days 8/29-9/8/81: cat 1 Emily, cat 3 Floyd, cat 2 Gert

-10 days 9/17-26/89: none

-9 days 9/2-10/83: cat 1 Chantal

-6 days 9/18-23/04: cat 1 Lisa

-6 days 8/28-9/2/07: cat 5 Felix

-5 days 8/27-31/88: cat 1 Debby

-5 days 9/12-16/04: cat 3 Jeanne, cat 4 Karl

-5 days 8/21-25/08: cat 4 Gustav

-4 days 8/22-25/99: cat 2 Dennis

 

 So, there were geneses of TC’s during these 10 longest periods in phases 1 and2 that later became 14 H’s (7 major) and these resulted in TC’s during  9 of the 10 periods that later became H’s. Four hit the US as a H, three of them being major H hits.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

 The upcoming phase 1 (and perhaps 2) MJO  is projected to be 2nd strongest (~2.40 per Euro) and tied for the 2nd longest at 1.50+ (8/28-9/7 or 11 days per Euro) of any phase 1 and 2 near the peak of the hurricane season since 1975. When considering strength and length, 1989 is the only analog that didn’t result in a genesis that later become a hurricane. However, it peaked at only 2.07 and that was on 9/19, which is a climatologically slightly less active period for genesis than the upcoming one. Also, the 8/26/11 peak was 1.50+ for only 3 days long and peaked at only 1.92. So, I’m predicting with high confidence (~95%) that there will at the very least one TC that forms (i.e., TD+) during 8/28-9/7/13 that later becomes a hurricane in the Atlantic basin.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 We have kind of an interesting situation regarding pouch 25 in the central Atlantic. Whereas the GFS and Euro runs (through 12Z) continue to do nothing with it, the CMC for at least the 4th run in a row has it become a cat 2-3 hurricane and threaten the US east coast. As a matter of fact, today's 12Z CMC actually slams Wilmington with a 968 mb hurricane at hour 216. See the attached map. Actually, it forms a TD by Monday morning 9/2 (72 hours) near the Leewards. Normally, I wouldn't give the CMC the time of day when the GFS and Euro are far different due to its inferiority and tendency to show false TC's. Therefore, I rarely post CMC maps and I'm not one to hype the tropics without a sound meteorological reason. Furthermore, I'm still not betting on it scoring a coup as of now. However, and this is a big however, the MJO is now getting close to an amplitude of 2.00 in phase 1 and rising further. If the Euro and GFS ensemble mean MJO forecasts were to verify, it would peak near 2.30 in phase 1 ~9/1-2, which is consistent with what the Euro has been showing for days. A 2.30 amplitude MJO in phase 1 would be the 2nd strongest MJO in either phase 1 or phase 2 near the peak of the season (8/21-9/20) since at least 1975! It would just beat the 9/5/81 peak of 2.21. Here are the two strongest as of now and the TC geneses while the MJO was 1.50+ in phase 1 or 2 just for the storms that eventually became hurricanes:

 

-3.08 peak 8/28/79: cat 5 David, cat. 4 Frederic, cat 2 Gloria

-2.21 peak 9/5/81: cat 1 Emily, cat 3 Floyd, cat 2 Gert

 

 Actually, a whopping six total TC's formed during the strong 1979 MJO!

 

 So, I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and GFS are not responding enough to this strong phase 1 MJO being that we're looking at about a one in 15 or so year event near the season's peak. Could it be that the CMC is responding more appropriately?

 

Any opinions?

 

post-882-0-65893100-1377891007_thumb.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yep.  Nothing the MJO does, makes the CMC a better model.

 

 The CMC sucks, period, for tropical genesis. However, even it scores a coup every couple of years or so. Furthermore, even the much better Euro and GFS had threatening runs and/or actual hits 5-6 days back:

 

 

Recap of US E coast threatening runs from pouch 25:

 

-0Z 8/24 Euro has strengthening TC 19N, 55W as of 0Z 9/3, moving W with implied E coast threat ~9/7-8

-6Z 8/24 GFS hits S FL 9/7

-6Z 8/25 GFS hits ME ~9/7-8

-0Z 8/29 CMC has 976 mb H 29N, 72W as of 0Z 9/8 moving NW and suggesting NC nward threat 9/8-9

-12Z 8/30 CMC hits Wilmington, NC, with a 968 H late 9/8

 

 So, the Euro and GFS actually had on runs 5-6 days back an actual US E coast threat from pouch 25 and for about the same period, near 9/8.. Let's  see if more models join the CMC in the coming days or if the CMC abandons its threats as usually happens when it is on its largely on its own. The key threat period centers around 9/8.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
  • Author
Posted

 The CMC sucks, period, for tropical genesis. However, even it scores a coup every couple of years or so. Furthermore, even the much better Euro and GFS had threatening runs and/or actual hits 5-6 days back:

 

 

Recap of US E coast threatening runs from pouch 25:

 

-0Z 8/24 Euro has strengthening TC 19N, 55W as of 0Z 9/3, moving W with implied E coast threat ~9/7-8

-6Z 8/24 GFS hits S FL 9/7

-6Z 8/25 GFS hits ME ~9/7-8

-0Z 8/29 CMC has 976 mb H 29N, 72W as of 0Z 9/8 moving NW and suggesting NC nward threat 9/8-9

-12Z 8/30 CMC hits Wilmington, NC, with a 968 H late 9/8

 

 So, the Euro and GFS actually had on runs 5-6 days back an actual US E coast threat from pouch 25 and for about the same period, near 9/8.. Let's  see if more models join the CMC in the coming days or if the CMC abandons its threats as usually happens when it is on its largely on its own. The key threat period centers around 9/8.

 

Hey, don't get me wrong.  I'm rooting for it.  But, around here we have a name for people that consistently bet on long shots.  Homeless.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hey, don't get me wrong.  I'm rooting for it.  But, around here we have a name for people that consistently bet on long shots.  Homeless.

I know better than to bet on it lol. However, it is so quiet out there that this hint of a threat from a pathetic tropical genesis model is probably about the only thing approaching interesting and it at least may make for a little bit of discussion in this otherwise dead thread.

Most importantly, I'm mentioning it due to the unusually favorable MJO near the climo heart of the season. Otherwise, I'd probably ignore it.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hot off of the press from another BB from the very well-respected meteorologist and often downplayer of tropical threats, "wxman 57":

 

" I see a major change coming after Sept. 9th in the GFS & Canadian ensembles as well as Japanese model (my coworker tells me). Check out the North Atlantic panel and the '500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly' maps. Note that after the 8th, the ridge builds across the Atlantic but is located a lot farther north than normal. This is a pattern that opens up the tropics for development and also indicates less recurving storms:"

 

 In the bigger picture, I still think that the current neutral negative ENSO is more favorable than unfavorable for a
major US threat sometime this season and I'm still betting on a major US H hit at some point (2/3 chance in my mind). There's plenty of time for that. That's in addition to the current strong MJO phase 1.

 

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