2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

[metalicwx366]

Looking a little more likely that Chantal will be paying a visit to the SE and now it appears she may be making a run at a hurricane when she does. The 5am NHC track had her turning towards the SE coast and getting stronger.....anywhere from the central east coast of Florida to the OBX needs to really start watching this one could be the first real threat of the year the the Atlantic SE coast.

The real deal is the wave that just exited Africa. That one looks ominous, but that is way out there and it could change any time.

[Cold Rain]

Most guidance seems to be on board with Chantal slowing and bending back west toward Florida, after it moves through the Bahamas (assuming it survives). The Canadian is still the outlier, bringing it into the SC coast, bringing very heavy rains to SC, GA, and NC...certainly a worst case scenario. Since it's the clear outlier and since it's the Canadian, the odds of it turning out correct are low. Still, there is a lot that can happen and attention should be paid.

[FallsLake]

Most guidance seems to be on board with Chantal slowing and bending back west toward Florida, after it moves through the Bahamas (assuming it survives). The Canadian is still the outlier, bringing it into the SC coast, bringing very heavy rains to SC, GA, and NC...certainly a worst case scenario. Since it's the clear outlier and since it's the Canadian, the odds of it turning out correct are low. Still, there is a lot that can happen and attention should be paid.

Anything is possible with a track of a hurricane, but historically storms do not tend to bend back into Florida (from the Atlantic). There can always be exceptions but we have to give some weight to what the Canadian is showing. 

[Cold Rain]

^Give weight to the Canadian....now that's something you don't hear everyday. You may be right, though. It'll be fun to follow.

[FallsLake]

Or we can say give weight to the path it's showing. It might be showing this for all the wrong reasons (sometimes bad calculations can give you the right answer).

[Cold Rain]

Or we can say give weight to the path it's showing. It might be showing this for all the wrong reasons (sometimes bad calculations can give you the right answer).

Sounds a lot like my math tests from school. I'd either get points off for getting the right answer with bad methodology or points off for the wrong answer with the right methodology.

Anyway, the new GFS takes what's left of Chantal into SC.

[Cold Rain]

Canadian continues to advertise a wet period coming up and also brings Chantal into the GA coast as a hurricane. Then, it crawls it slowly westward, drenching GA and SC.

[mackerel_sky]

Sounds a lot like my math tests from school. I'd either get points off for getting the right answer with bad methodology or points off for the wrong answer with the right methodology.

Anyway, the new GFS takes what's left of Chantal into SC.

Sounds like a worse case scenario for the Carolinas, if GFS is right!

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

If these 12Z GFS ensembles are correct, this is bad news for the recently flooded areas on Central and Western NC as well as Upstate of SC.

 

[metalicwx366]

If these 12Z GFS ensembles are correct, this is bad news for the recently flooded areas on Central and Western NC as well as Upstate of SC.

Yep all the models just trended back North due to the faster forward speed. It makes it further North before the ridge builds back in.

[calculus1]

Sounds a lot like my math tests from school. I'd either get points off for getting the right answer with bad methodology or points off for the wrong answer with the right methodology.

Anyway, the new GFS takes what's left of Chantal into SC.

 

Classic!  Yeah, I've graded that way before...

[JoshM]

Wow what a "Hugo" like track, glad this thing isn't a Major hurricane!

[Hammer]

A little nervous how this may affect here in N. Ga... not sure we can handle any more rain.

[downeastnc]

Looking at the hunter info Chantal may have opened up and lost its LLC,  but latest sat loops show some impressive new thunderstorms firing so maybe the center is/was relocating. So as bad as it looks and given the fact it may not even technically be a closed system therefore not a TS I suspect the NHC keeps it a weak TS till at least tomorrow before dropping it. 

[Disc]

[dsaur]

As long as it keeps heading for my yard!   I can't get enough rain.  I'm trying to make up for a 13 year deficit, lol.  I'm on high ground and everything that falls keeps disappearing over the edges!  T

[FallsLake]

NHC has the (tropical) storm hitting the coast of Georgia. I had stated yesterday that this is historically rare. It will be interesting to see if this actually happens. **maybe it being a weaker system allows for the west turn---or maybe the pattern that is keeping it weaker is what is turning it more west.**

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084552.shtml?5-daynl#contents

[kvegas-wx]

NHC has the (tropical) storm hitting the coast of Georgia. I had stated yesterday that this is historically rare. It will be interesting to see if this actually happens. **maybe it being a weaker system allows for the west turn---or maybe the pattern that is keeping it weaker is what is turning it more west.**

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084552.shtml?5-daynl#contents

I think "rare" would fit right in with what we are seeing this year. And to think, I was considering rain barrels as a solution to this summer's drought. Lol.

[Marion_NC_WX]

NHC has the (tropical) storm hitting the coast of Georgia. I had stated yesterday that this is historically rare. It will be interesting to see if this actually happens. **maybe it being a weaker system allows for the west turn---or maybe the pattern that is keeping it weaker is what is turning it more west.**

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084552.shtml?5-daynl#contents

 

 

 

Maybe somebody can clarify this for me but I have always been of the opinion that a weak, unorganized storm tends to follow the 850mb flow while stronger storms follow the 500mb flow.

 

I think that sharp west turn into Florida that the models were showing was a product of Chantal organizing once it got east of Florida and becoming more dominated by the flow aloft.

 

If it remains weak, Chantal will pretty much just move around the perimeter of the TUTT that will be slowly retrograding in the Eastern Gulf.

[downeastnc]

Looks kinda ok right now, if the overall wave holds up and gets off the SE coast in 5 days it might be able to get back to a TS before heading inland if it does that at all. Most models tended to have trouble with keeping it through the big islands but almost all bring it back over the Bahamas and off the SE coast so we will see. I havent seen any of the latest runs though so.....

 

11 am update still a weak TS plane found closed surface low, they kill it in 3 days but one has to wonder how much if any of the moisture associated with it survuves and where does it go.

[LithiaWx]

Chantal is officially an open wave.

[downeastnc]

Chantal or part of her anyways may be staging a comeback, and the last GFS run seem to indicate this will threaten the SC/NC region as a weak TS, of course given the recent rains etc it would be unwanted rain for sure.

 

Part or her reclassifed as a Invest 96L

 

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al032013_al962013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307112043
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
 

[downeastnc]

ROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS
NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT
17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD. THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER FORWARD MOTION THAN MOST OF THE OTHER
TRACK MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE NHC FORECAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 13.9N 28.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 14.6N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.5N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.2N 37.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 18.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 19.3N 56.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.0N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

[downeastnc]

AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, 

 

We have TS Dorian and it really looks to be quicky getting its act together, most models have it weak or kill it over the next several days. it will be interesting to see how the models handle the storm if it does indeed strengthen quicker than modeled. The NHC track has it almost to the Bahamas and its speeding up which would indicate a ridge building in and this would make a recurve less likely and IMO really up the chances of this thing getting close to or striking the SE. That said it has to live that long and we are talking 5-7 days out so.......

[toxictwister00]

Dorian is by far the best looking tropical system we've had so far this hurricane season imo. Nice outflow and closed circulation, the only problem that remains is will right now be the best of Dorian before it falls to pieces. We'll see...

[metalicwx366]

Yep, best by far this year. Already have has two systems this year form that far east. Does not bode well for August and September. Also that ridge is still sitting there.

Looks like Dorian maybe forming an eye looking at visible. Unless it is a dry spot.

[GaWx]

Per 7/24 12Z GFS fwiw, sighs of relief for the SE US as Dorian recurves east of the SE US at ~75W on 8/3-4.

 

Edit: Fwiw, the good Doc (12Z 7/24) gets Dorian to move WNW to the Bahamas on 7/31 but only as an open wave since it degenerates Dorian into just that on Friday 7/26.

 

It then gets it to skirt SE FL on 8/1 as a very weak low moving NW and then NNW to N recurving near or just offshore the FL E coast on 8/2.

[GaWx]

I'd call the climo based chance of a US hit from Dorian a respectable near 1 in 4, which is a bit higher than the hit rate for later CV formations (such as in SEP, which is only ~1 in 6) due to a higher recurvature rate E of the US in SEP vs. now.

 

Exact dates of FORMATION (TD+) for the 47 1851-2012 CV storms* that later hit the U.S:

 

7/5, 7/11, 7/15, 7/31, 8/3, 8/3, 8/5, 8/7, 8/7, 8/15, 8/15, 8/16, 8/16, 8/17, 8/17, 8/18, 8/19, 8/20, 8/20, 8/21,8/23,  8/23, 8/25, 8/25, 8/27, 8/28, 8/28, 8/29, 8/29, 9/1, 9/2, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6, 9/6, 9/7, 9/8, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/10, 9/11, 9/15, 9/16, 9/21, 9/21, 9/25

 

 *My def. of CV storm: tropical storm/hurricane that first became at least a TD E of 50W and S of 20N

 

 The four July formation CV storm US hits on record are as follows:

 

- Claudette of 7/15/1979 (TX/LA border as a TS)

- Allen of 7/31/1980 (far S TX as a cat 3)

- Bertha 7/5/1996 (NC as a cat 2)

- Emily of 7/11/2005 (not a direct hit since the center hit N MX but there were sustained TS force winds in and near Brownville, TX)

 

 All four of these formed at 12.5 N or further south vs. Dorian's 13.9 N. So, if Dorian were to hit the US, it would be the furthest north formation of a July CV storm to hit the US on record.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I think Dorian has potential to be a significant system, the key to me is whether he can keep a good structure while moving over colder waters.

In the long term the key is whether the Bermuda Ridge will hold firm leading to an east coast threat? Seems like in recent history big trough magically appears sparing the US. The southeast coast is due.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I'm curious as to the thoughts of our southeast crew about Dorian?

 

Just looking at satellite, Dorian has not improved significantly nor has it weakened a whole lot. It's still in the formative stages. There have been times of good convective coverage and times that the LLC and MLC have disconnected from each other. All in all...Dorian is still a storm that is not well developed but holding together.

 

Looking at the models...the GFS (which unveiled its new version today) has Dorian's 500mb reflection never getting well developed and it tangling with Hispanola, which was different from the runs yesterday...maybe a product of the new changes in the model.

 

Euro also not very bullish on development...

 

I still think if Dorian makes it to Sunday even in a condition like its currently in, we will be in business for some US threat.

 

Looking at the synoptic setup, there still seems to be an idea of a weakness in the Southwest Atlantic setting up next week and then a trough that could hint at a possible re-curve or could put areas north of Florida in play if Dorian got to that point.

 

I just think its funny how the Bermuda High had been a very strong influence during the months of June and July but now that we have a possible tropical threat, the ridge is breaking down enough to allow for a track up the east coast.