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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

There is a bit of a twist off the SC coast this afternoon....wont amount to much to much shear but its interesting to see how long they can last in this otherwise boring pattern we are in.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20130621&endTime=-1&duration=9

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=ltx&loop=yes

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

There is a bit of a twist off the SC coast this afternoon....wont amount to much to much shear but its interesting to see how long they can last in this otherwise boring pattern we are in.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CLT&itype=vis&size=small&endDate=20130621&endTime=-1&duration=9

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=ltx&loop=yes

 

Latest ILM radar 

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

It's been lemonized with a 0% chance :D

 

two_atl.gif

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT60 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SHOWS SOMESIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATETHAT PRESSURE ARE HIGH AND WINDS ARE LIGHT IN THIS AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE...AND NO SIGNIFICANTDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTH ANDNORTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Huh kinda surprised they did that given its west motion and closeness to land.....It is really obvious on the ILM radar this morning and if it was still 100-150 miles off the coast I think it would have been a TD it really was/is organizing fast.  The buoys show a surface low so it had gotten to the surface as well where as yesterday it was still all mid level.....oh well prolly will not be the last time this year we see something like this given the pattern with the troughs in the east this summer.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LTX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

It's a heck of a rainstorm but it is not tropical in any sense and far from a tropical storm. It was never classified as even a depression so it must be missing key criteria.

Oh its tropical just not strong enough to be classified, I think if it was 100 miles off the coast right now it would be a TD but it interacted with land to much and to soon. A few buoys off ILM flirted with minimal TD criteria this morning right as the center came ashore....one had sustained 25ish with gust to 40-45, and the buoys indicated a well defined low level closed circulation. 

 

Still looks rather good on the radar loop as well, the beaches have been pounded with 4-6" of rain not a good beach weekend at all. 

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Oh its tropical just not strong enough to be classified, I think if it was 100 miles off the coast right now it would be a TD but it interacted with land to much and to soon. A few buoys off ILM flirted with minimal TD criteria this morning right as the center came ashore....one had sustained 25ish with gust to 40-45, and the buoys indicated a well defined low level closed circulation.

Still looks rather good on the radar loop as well, the beaches have been pounded with 4-6" of rain not a good beach weekend at all.

It wasn't classified as a tropical system. Hence it's not tropical in the sense we are discussing.mYou could call moist GoM flow producing thunderstorms tropical by your definition. If it had enough to be considered a depression the NWS would have pulled the trigger regardless of its proximity to land. THe pressures are high and the winds light.

Was the buoy report rain contaminated?

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

It wasn't classified as a tropical system. Hence it's not tropical in the sense we are discussing.mYou could call moist GoM flow producing thunderstorms tropical by your definition. If it had enough to be considered a depression the NWS would have pulled the trigger regardless of its proximity to land. THe pressures are high and the winds light.

Was the buoy report rain contaminated?

 

First bolded.....well not really this is a closed LLC not a warm moist flow off the GOM ( I never suggested that a warm moist flow could be called a tropical system), it was/is a warm core low, that was in the process of organizing into a TD....if it was all onshore flow I wouldnt call it a "system".  

 

Not sure what you mean by the second bolded, but buoys are not contaminated like a SFMR by rain if that is what you are suggesting/wondering....here is the data 

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41037

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

First bolded.....well not really this is a closed LLC not a warm moist flow off the GOM ( I never suggested that a warm moist flow could be called a tropical system), it was/is a warm core low, that was in the process of organizing into a TD....if it was all onshore flow I wouldnt call it a "system".  

 

Not sure what you mean by the second bolded, but buoys are not contaminated like a SFMR by rain if that is what you are suggesting/wondering....here is the data 

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41037

The post I originally responded to was asking where the tropical storm came from. It wasn't even worthy enough to be classified as a depression. We agree to disagree I guess. It seemed pretty clear to me we weren't dealing with anything of significance. I looked at the buoy reports the one report of sustained 36knot winds was probably thunderstorm contaminated. If this disturbance had sustained winds of 41 mph and a closed circulation it would have been classified period.

We are parsing words here in the end. Fact is it was a disturbance not a tropical system. It wasn't classified and didn't deserve to be. Ill take your word it had a closed LLC but I haven't heard of seen anything confirming that.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

The post I originally responded to was asking where the tropical storm came from. It wasn't even worthy enough to be classified as a depression. We agree to disagree I guess. It seemed pretty clear to me we weren't dealing with anything of significance. I looked at the buoy reports the one report of sustained 36knot winds was probably thunderstorm contaminated. If this disturbance had sustained winds of 41 mph and a closed circulation it would have been classified period.

We are parsing words here in the end. Fact is it was a disturbance not a tropical system. It wasn't classified and didn't deserve to be. Ill take your word it had a closed LLC but I haven't heard of seen anything confirming that.

 

I agree that it was never a TD much less a TS and I assumed the post you responded to was tongue in cheek and just remarking on how well it looked on radar.  Again a tropical "system" does not have to be a TD or better to be called a tropical "system" IMO, I also never said this was more than what it was or that it should have been classified as a TD although it would have been had it had more time over water.....this is why the NHC threw a lemon on it just in case something crazy happened like a  stall or slow down. Or maybe it did a little loop and bought itself enough time to get to the point they would have had to call it a TD or TS. The chances of this were as stated next to zero but it sure did give it a good try. I guess it boils down to what is considered a tropical system, IMO this met the criteria not all tropical systems become tropical cyclones. 

 

As for the LLC just look at obs outta NE SC this morning as the center moved inland, they were all reporting WNW or NW winds while all the NC beaches were SE, E or NE. 

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Hopefully things start ramping up soon. Weather has been beyond boring. I will be heading down to the outer banks this year if anything threatens. Who else chases in this subforum?

We don't chase Hurricanes they chase us :P Or atleast in the late 90's it surely seemed that way for a few years. Lot of folks will gas up when an opurtunity presents itself. Some on here get lucky/unlucky depending on how you look at it and just post obs from the back yard.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

I think we got some really interesting pieces on the table for Days 7-10... 95L is on its way to becoming our next feature...probably will be making an approach to Florida/FLA Straights/Cuba in about a week of can surive the Islands and Puerto Rico/Hispanola.

 

Synoptic features across the mid latitudes could also allow for a Gulf landfall.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I think we got some really interesting pieces on the table for Days 7-10... 95L is on its way to becoming our next feature...probably will be making an approach to Florida/FLA Straights/Cuba in about a week of can surive the Islands and Puerto Rico/Hispanola.

 

Synoptic features across the mid latitudes could also allow for a Gulf landfall.

 

 MJO Climo for July for the current MJO phase, #2, is also a relatively positive factor for both development and potential US threat. See the last couple of pages of the main BB's Atlantic tropical thread for details about this, if interested.

 

 

The July phase 2 TC geneses include these H's since 1995 (all five hit the US as H's)(these are 5 of the 8 July H's that formed in July and later hit the CONUS since the warm AMO started in 1995):

 

1995: H Erin

1996: H Bertha

2003: H Claudette

2005: H's Cindy and Dennis

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Any thoughts on Chantal today?  I have know some folks travelling into Florida(west coast) during that time frame....

 

Well current thinking is she is gonna be hammered over the big islands and then come up the SE coast if she survives, a recurve at least at this time seems less likely than a landfall if there is anything left but if it does landfall it should be the east coast of Florida up to NC that is the most threatened by what most likely is going to be a weak system.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

If the model consensus were to be in the ballpark, I'd have to say thanks to Hispaniola for getting in the way as that would definitely weaken it vs. what would otherwise occur. The last thing the shallow waters near the GA, lower SC coasts as well as the then visiting moles would need would be a strong hurricane hitting from that angle. Also, thank goodness this is July and a fairly cool one as coastal SST's are not quite as warm as they'd normally be a month from now.

I hope the biggest concern is flooding rain as opposed to winds and surge IF it were to hit the SE coast. Looking at Atlanta stats., July has been by a good margin the worst month for ~5"+ rains produced by a tropical cyclone even though July isn't normally a very active month. I assume this is due in part to relatively slow movers in July in the inland SE. Most of these big Atl

rain producers have come off of the Gulf as one might suspect. So, if this comes off of the Atlantic, that very heavy rain threat wouldn't be as high for

Atl and nearby areas based on climo.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

If(stress if) that storm gets into TN or NC, the flooding would be massive.  Three days ago, the French Broad was sending 60,000+ cfs into Douglas Lake in TN.  Douglas is "spilling" water until further notice.  Basically, what that means is that river cannot take any more water without some sever consequences.  Read Robert's write-up yesterday, and he mentioned the potential for trouble.  Can you imagine a tropical storm dropping water on a river already at flood stage?

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

If(stress if) that storm gets into TN or NC, the flooding would be massive. Three days ago, the French Broad was sending 60,000+ cfs into Douglas Lake in TN. Douglas is "spilling" water until further notice. Basically, what that means is that river cannot take any more water without some sever consequences. Read Robert's write-up yesterday, and he mentioned the potential for trouble. Can you imagine a tropical storm dropping water on a river already at flood stage?

Even if it doesn't make it, there will still be flooding up there. Apparently another cutoff might develop.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Further to my previous post, I've found 15 tropical cyclones that have produced ~5"+ rain in ATL since 1879:

1) The two highest amounts from any of the 15 were a very impressive 8.89" from Opal of 10/1995 and 8.26” from T.C. #2 of 7/1916. The third highest was Alberto's 7.92” from 7/1994. Amounts like that would be absolutely devastating right now. Even 3-5" would likely be quite damaging.

2) Although slow movement obviously tends to cause higher amounts, it isn't required. In fact, Opal was a VERY fast mover. I'd call only six of the 15 slow movers. However, 4 of the 7 JUL big rain producers were slow movers. The last slow movers were Ida of 11/2009 and 7/1994's Alberto.

3) Seven of the 15 were in JUL, two in AUG, three in SEP, two in OCT, and one in NOV.

4) The most common single landfall area for the 15 was Ft. Walton Beach/Destin (SIX of the 15 if I include Ida of 09). 13 of the 15 were Gulf coast hitters (range C LA to Panama City) while only TWO were east coast hitters (Jeanne from 9/2004 and #3 of 8/1940). So, as of now, that is slightly encouraging for the Atl area.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted

Even if it doesn't make it, there will still be flooding up there. Apparently another cutoff might develop.

 

Yes, I saw that too.  It will be bad enough if that happens...tropical moisture from a TS would be incredibly bad.  Also, notice that Wilbur/Watauga are spilling water.  That does not happen often.  Headwaters for both rivers(edit) are in western North Carolina. 

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Looking a little more likely that Chantal will be paying a visit to the SE and now it appears she may be making a run at a hurricane when she does. The 5am NHC track had her turning towards the SE coast and getting stronger.....anywhere from the central east coast of Florida to the OBX needs to really start watching this one could be the first real threat of the year the the Atlantic SE coast.

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