icebreaker5221 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Yea the 00z ECMWF got a little bit more aggressive with PG25L, with genesis occurring just east of the Lesser Antilles. 12z ECMWF looks like it might be following suit. The 12Z looks like a step in the wrong direction. Still somewhat organized at 850 but no closed surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Only "interesting" thing on the 12z ECMWF is that it brings the wave over Africa into the CV islands or very close. They'll probably see another tropical storm watch within the next few days... Otherwise, it's Once could argue that even 2006 more eventful than this "season" at this point with that season already having a lame hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA 49 WILL FLY A TDR MISSION INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR 15N 50W, DEPARTING ST CROIX 31/1300Z, ALTITUDE 41,000 TO 45,000 FT. 3. REMARKS: A. GLOBAL HAWK NA873 DEPARTED 29/1300Z FLYING EASTERLY WAVE/ CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MISSION DURATION 24 HRS. ALTITUDE 55,000 TO 65,000 FT. SEE TCPOD 13-088 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. B. GLOBAL HAWK NA871 TAKE-OFF: 1600Z 30 AUGUST 1. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE- DEPRESSION/EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES 2. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M 3. IP: 2100Z, 30 AUG; 19.5N, 55.0W 4. EP: 1000Z, 31AUG; 19.5N, 45.0W 5. ON-STATION DURATION: 12H 00M 6. ETA WFF: 1600Z, 31AUG 7. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0 8. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT 9. PATTERN: N-S RACETRACK WITHIN BOX BOUNDED BY 19.5N 55.0 W, 10.0N 55.0W, 10.0N 45.0W, 19.5N, 45.0W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 The 12Z looks like a step in the wrong direction. Still somewhat organized at 850 but no closed surface low. Silver lining, barely moving, near the Bahamas, and apparently very near the center of the subtropical ridge such that even with a trough to the North, it can't quickly escape. It might just barely creep North or West, and a ridge could build over it and turn it back West. I always try to see the bright side. If it does stall and wander the Bahamas, it has some heat potential to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Maybe it's something simple though... the convection over the East Pacific is still pretty strong- alot of upper-level divergence going on there... Very similar to an El-Nino state. I'm wondering if we need the East Pac to tame down first for the Atl to get going... My simple week 1-2 diagnostics due suggest increased suppression to make its way over the east Pac in the next 1-2 weeks.. Could be something to watch. You know, I've always felt like we've been in an El Ninoish state with regards to the tropics this year. Lots of CPAC/EPAC storms (even though they've been of crappy quality as well). Has shear in the ATL been above-average this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 You know, I've always felt like we've been in an El Ninoish state with regards to the tropics this year. Lots of CPAC/EPAC storms (even though they've been of crappy quality as well). Has shear in the ATL been above-average this month? Not really; below average if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 ^Well, I guess that nukes that hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Not really; below average if anything. Do you know what levels and area this is being averaged over? I know that eastern MDR has been poisoned by a ton of easterly shear forced by a stronger than average West African Monsoon. Further, for most of the month of July and early August, the western Caribbean had a screaming low-level Caribbean easterly jet that was inhibiting development.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Mike, these are the regions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Do you know what levels and area this is being averaged over? I know that eastern MDR has been poisoned by a ton of easterly shear forced by a stronger than average West African Monsoon. Further, for most of the month of July and early August, the western Caribbean had a screaming low-level Caribbean easterly jet that was inhibiting development.. Mike, It's off the formation probablity product page. The area I posted is the whole area south of 20N from 60W to over Central Africa. They have a map showing the various areas there; at least for the MDR, for this month, the problem hasn't been shear, but if you look at all the graphs it had other problems: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 FIM 8 has been weaker, and further East, each 0Z/12Z run, from a Cape Cod hurricane to a near miss TS passing Nova Scotia. The models with fairly fast development, FIM, Canadian, NavGEM, all look fishy. I think the Euro scenario of the Pseudo-Invest 25L weak system getting as far West as the Bahamas and in weak steering, loitering near the Gulf Stream, may be the best shot for North American landfall, barring a BoC miracle in a about 6 days, barely hinted at in GFS and Euro runs BoC miracle, 12Z GFS below, Euro, couple of runs, 850 mb vorticity and a weak surface trough. And did Fernand look much better from 6 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Mike, Here's a graphic of past 45 day shear anomalies in the tropical Atlantic that shows both the features you mentioned - easterly shear in the e. Atlantic and westerly shear in the Caribbean. Here's the link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/ Do you know what levels and area this is being averaged over? I know that eastern MDR has been poisoned by a ton of easterly shear forced by a stronger than average West African Monsoon. Further, for most of the month of July and early August, the western Caribbean had a screaming low-level Caribbean easterly jet that was inhibiting development.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Well, in jconsor's maps, you can clearly see the semi-permanent W ATL TUTT that has nuked many a fledgling TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 But it seems like a semi-permanent shearing TUTT and strong low level Easterlies in the Eastern and Central Caribbean are an almost annual feature July into the first half of August. TUTT has been a bit stronger, the shear extends a bit further West into the Caribbean than usual, but nothing looks nuclear weapons grade dead season. Yes, I follow JB on Twitter... Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 28 Aug It appears that the total intensity (ACE) of the hurricane season thru the end of August may be the lowest since 1977. Have to recheck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Do you know what levels and area this is being averaged over? I know that eastern MDR has been poisoned by a ton of easterly shear forced by a stronger than average West African Monsoon. Further, for most of the month of July and early August, the western Caribbean had a screaming low-level Caribbean easterly jet that was inhibiting development.. Yes, that resulted in the higher than normal shear over the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Mike, Here's a graphic of past 45 day shear anomalies in the tropical Atlantic that shows both the features you mentioned - easterly shear in the e. Atlantic and westerly shear in the Caribbean. shear_200-850_atl_60d_45.gif Here's the link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/ Yes, that resulted in the higher than normal shear over the Caribbean. ts_al_car_VSHD.gif Ah ok yes this shows it nicely, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Count the number of TUTT lows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 You know, I've always felt like we've been in an El Ninoish state with regards to the tropics this year. Lots of CPAC/EPAC storms (even though they've been of crappy quality as well). Has shear in the ATL been above-average this month? I'd be willing to bet, too, that the ACE in the EPAC is actually decently below normal. Keep in mind the EPAC peak is in mid-August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 I'd be willing to bet, too, that the ACE in the EPAC is actually decently below normal. Keep in mind the EPAC peak is in mid-August. Yeah, the EPAC is running 53% of normal with the WPAC at 47% and the Atlantic really lagging at 28% of normal ACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Count the number of TUTT lows lol Not that bad...yes, there are one too many, but generally pinched off ULLs are less shearing inducing than full fledged troughs. ULLs at this time of year usually retrograde west or SW, helping ventilate w moving TWs. Of course, having too many makes upper level conditions above 15N rather hostile, but below that, it's pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 FWIW this site shows the strongest bullseye it's shown all year on day 30. It is a fish storm region though. Also showing a small positive formation anomaly near the SE coast centered around 9/9. And that's abut all I have to over-analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 HS3 Global Hawk has been station for about 8 hours now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Hi ho hi ho 96L recurvin it will go -- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS4oomMCIAEZo9J.png:large (it was posted on twitter fyi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 29 Global Hawk Dropsondes ingested and assimilated into the 0z GFS! (Note the 26th's were rejected (pic#3), but not tonight!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Hi ho hi ho 96L recurvin it will go -- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BS4oomMCIAEZo9J.png:large (it was posted on twitter fyi) Euro actually gets it down to about 1000mb 12z Saturday before it starts weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 There isn't a single 18Z ensemble member that shows at a strength of 1008 mb or below that doesn't start fishing 96L within 5 days. A couple get it to 1000 mb or stronger on the way. Euro barely develops it but fishes the remnant 850 mb vorticity. Oh well, at least it is something.. And the central Atlantic quasi-invest 25L is finally getting some convection near what IR2 suggests is the circulation center, A tiny blob, but near -70C) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 96L is like watching the same horrible movie over and over again... like Dorian and like Erin, the wave is emerging during the overnight period where the diurnal max for convection + a strong CCKW should aid in initial genesis. However, the system should gain latitude rather quickly, the consequence of a very weak 500 hPa ridge that is bisected by a pesky, larger, and persistent upper level trough located near the Azores. This feature has literally been in the same place for the last two weeks, and is highly anomalous for this time of the year. This is the same pattern that ripped apart Erin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Here is the latest Dakar sounding for the wave rolling off Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2013 Author Share Posted August 30, 2013 African waves lolz. Booooooorrrrrrring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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