Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Bryan Wood]

 

 

ETA:  I finally has internet for Hurricane Mitch, and was all excited, and sending e-mails to my friends, and then, well, I don't want Third World people getting majors.  Just Mobile through Long Island, NY.

 

...because the Gulf Coast/East Coast have zero poor/defenseless people who always survive unscathed from even Cat 1 landfalls. I go on site for hurricane/tornado recoveries and if you would see what I see, you wouldn't wish any type of landfall your worst enemy.

[mob1]

...because the Gulf Coast/East Coast have zero poor/defenseless people who always survive unscathed from even Cat 1 landfalls. I go on site for hurricane/tornado recoveries and if you would see what I see, you wouldn't wish any type of landfall your worst enemy.

While every hurricane leaves its mark, look at how many tropical storms leave 1000+ dead in Haiti. I won't even touch Bangladesh... Some places in the US (especially the Florida keys up through Miami) are as ready as you can ever be for a hurricane, some times though there's just no escaping unscathed regardless of preparations.

[apm]

That particular product seems on the optimistic side, and may be sensitive to what aren't really tropical lows.  I think it sets the net for being 'tropical' rather low.  0Z GFS not really tropical and barely a cyclone phase diagram...

 

 

Despite its apparent absurdity at the time, it does look pretty darn tropical now, at least subtropical.  Score another one for the models.

[Mike.Ventrice]

GFS is indicating a very strong easterly wave train to develop in the upcoming week. Note that each easterly wave forms at an eastward location later in time. This is a classic CCKW-interaction over West Africa, initiating a series of strong easterly waves that could seed a tropical cyclone at a later time. If NO tropical cyclones develop in this intraseasonal pattern (1-2 weeks), then something else is squashing the Atlantic and there is no doubt every seasonal forecast that has been issued this year for atlantic-tcs will bust.  

 

Fun note: 00Z GFS op putting a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico during the 11-15 day time frame... can you say convective parameterization issues?

 

 

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

I know my glass half full optimism has failed miserably this season, but both 0Z and 6Z GFS and the 0Z Euro suggesting a chance at a winning lottery ticket in the BoC in about 6 days.  No big storm spin up of a storm, but lower pressure and some rain.  Hard to tell from free Euro ensembles on ECWMF page, but looks like some ensembles supporting op Euro on lowering pressures in the BoC.  Hard to be enthusiastic, but it isn't 15 days away.

 

If something did develop, another Tormenta Tampiqueña with a system that would probably have limited time over water but good heat potential.  And we could all make comments like 'what if it has 24 more hours over water?'

 

0Z GEFS 11 member ESRL reforecast anomalies (here on rainfall) show a potential day 6-8 and then again a 13-16 day enhanced rainfall area in the BoC. 

 

[Sunny and Warm]

how much heat content did the last storm take out of the BOC?

[Derecho!]

So we are down to 10 day CMC forecasts for hope?

 

CMC is strongly supported by the NAVGEM...what could go wrong?

[Ed Lizard]

...because the Gulf Coast/East Coast have zero poor/defenseless people who always survive unscathed from even Cat 1 landfalls. I go on site for hurricane/tornado recoveries and if you would see what I see, you wouldn't wish any type of landfall your worst enemy.

 

I don't control the weather.  I just, if there must be hurricanes, prefer they don't kill 10,000 people living in shacks.  My wife's cousins had roof damage, and down here, the heart of the AC/heat is in the attic, and they didn't have heat again until December.  Neighborhood houses with blue tarps on the roof because it took contractors time to repair everything.  All this from only Cat 1 winds locally.  Their school, St Charles Borromeo, lost its roof and never opened again because the Archdiocese didn't have the money to repair it, and a retired longshoreman lost his Summer place to storm surge.  OK, guilty admission, the gas station canopies that tipped 2 blocks from my house, that was kind of cool.  It sucked for a lot of people, but the death toll was pretty tame.

 

And why tornadoes are mentioned, I didn't start it.  Love the YouTubes, hate it when they hit elementary schools.  But again, no control of tornadoes either.

[Srain]

how much heat content did the last storm take out of the BOC?

Little, if any. The Western Caribbean and the Southern/Central/Western Gulf remain very supportive of a tropical cyclone, should one develop.

[Ed Lizard]

Little, if any. The Western Caribbean and the Southern/Central/Western Gulf remain very supportive of a tropical cyclone, should one develop.

 

 

Why I posted the TCHP map of the GOMEX, in case we draw to the inside straight flush on the hint of activity on the 6 day GFS and Euro.  Corpus Christi down to Veracruz is primed.

[Srain]

GFS is indicating a very strong easterly wave train to develop in the upcoming week. Note that each easterly wave forms at an eastward location later in time. This is a classic CCKW-interaction over West Africa, initiating a series of strong easterly waves that could seed a tropical cyclone at a later time. If NO tropical cyclones develop in this intraseasonal pattern (1-2 weeks), then something else is squashing the Atlantic and there is no doubt every seasonal forecast that has been issued this year for atlantic-tcs will bust.  

 

Fun note: 00Z GFS op putting a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico during the 11-15 day time frame... can you say convective parameterization issues?

 

 

 

 

 Thanks for the update, Mike. I agree and have been suggesting the area to focus attention for potential TC Genesis is in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf beyond Labor Day. I know Jorge has touch on this as well along as others. TC Genesis a bit closer to the Western Basin appears to be increasing, and something a bit 'home grown' `~vs~ a long tracking cyclone would be my best guess at this time. That said SAL is continuing to decrease and the waves rolling across Africa appear to be stronger. Those thinking that we have missed our chances for an active season may have been just a bit impatient.

 

[am19psu]

If NO tropical cyclones develop in this intraseasonal pattern (1-2 weeks), then something else is squashing the Atlantic and there is no doubt every seasonal forecast that has been issued this year for atlantic-tcs will bust.

Hmmm.... What about other basins - they've been pretty suppressed, too...

[GaWx]

So we are down to 10 day CMC forecasts for hope?

I know that relying on the CMC is pretty sad if you like just having activity as it is little more than entertainment. The main reason I posted it is for documentation purposes just in case it ends up pulling the rabbit out of the hat. Also, with the current solid MJO phase 1 and projected quite strong phase 1 in coming days, it would be quite unusual for there to be no TC genesis. Keep in mind that this CMC run has a TC as early as day 6 moving WNW just north of the Caribbean. So, it didn't just develop a TC near the end of the run. I realize that having no support from the GFS or Euro isn't a good sign to say the least!

[WNash]

...because the Gulf Coast/East Coast have zero poor/defenseless people who always survive unscathed from even Cat 1 landfalls. I go on site for hurricane/tornado recoveries and if you would see what I see, you wouldn't wish any type of landfall your worst enemy.

 

I don't disagree, but there are very, very few people here who show any kind of glee about this stuff, and they're best ignored. I'm actually far more bothered in general about deviations from climo norms piling up than anything else.

 

Perfect world for me is that we get some ideal number of perfectly formed storms hitting the most sparsely populated part of the continent so we can meet the climo and so Josh can get his video and everybody lives.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Hmmm.... What about other basins - they've been pretty suppressed, too...

 

500 mb vertical velocities! 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Maybe it's something simple though... the convection over the East Pacific is still pretty strong- alot of upper-level divergence going on there... Very similar to an El-Nino state. 

 

 

 

 

I'm wondering if we need the East Pac to tame down first for the Atl to get going... My simple week 1-2 diagnostics due suggest increased suppression to make its way over the east Pac in the next 1-2 weeks.. Could be something to watch.

 

[IsentropicLift]

I don't disagree, but there are very, very few people here who show any kind of glee about this stuff, and they're best ignored. I'm actually far more bothered in general about deviations from climo norms piling up than anything else.

 

Perfect world for me is that we get some ideal number of perfectly formed storms hitting the most sparsely populated part of the continent so we can meet the climo and so Josh can get his video and everybody lives.

So you wouldn't be in favor of a catagory 5 hurricane bearing down on New York City?

 

Back to on topic discussion, the 06z GEFS members were't terrible days 10-16 with several members showing a sub 996 TC in the 8-16 day range.

[am19psu]

500 mb vertical velocities!

[icebreaker5221]

Maybe it's something simple though... the convection over the East Pacific is still pretty strong- alot of upper-level divergence going on there... Very similar to an El-Nino state. 

 

I'm wondering if we need the East Pac to tame down first for the Atl to get going... My simple week 1-2 diagnostics due suggest increased suppression to make its way over the east Pac in the next 1-2 weeks.. Could be something to watch.

 

It's funny you should mention it - even though SSTs have been neutral-cold in the Nino 3.4 region, the 30-day running mean SOI did go negative today for the first time in quite a while.  So even though SSTs suggest a Nina-like pattern, the atmosphere has responded with a more Nino-like MSLP configuration.  Convection / OLR / velocity potential anomalies in the E Pac have been more Nino-like. 

 

Of course, normally a Nino-like pattern would support at least a couple major hurricanes to date in the E Pac, while in reality we've seen zero.  We can't win this year

[Ed Lizard]

No development on any run, but multiple GFS runs interact a almost imperceptible wave just West of the Lesser Antilles and North of Venezuela with the monsoon trough to develop a surface trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in 6 days or so, with an anticyclone aloft and within favorable moisture.  And assuming there isn't an EastPac TC already existing to compete (that isn't a safe assumption, BTW), this would be as close to the East Pac as possible.

 

Fernand wasn't all that well predicted on the models six days in advance, if that has a bit more latitude and time over water, potentially chaseable.

[wxmx]

No development on any run, but multiple GFS runs interact a almost imperceptible wave just West of the Lesser Antilles and North of Venezuela with the monsoon trough to develop a surface trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in 6 days or so, with an anticyclone aloft and within favorable moisture.  And assuming there isn't an EastPac TC already existing to compete (that isn't a safe assumption, BTW), this would be as close to the East Pac as possible.

 

Fernand wasn't all that well predicted on the models six days in advance, if that has a bit more latitude and time over water, potentially chaseable.

There's also something that appears to be a surface trough in the 0z Euro...a bit farther north, but never develops. Looking at the GFS upper level winds in the BoC at the time the trough is there, things are marginally conducive, especially the farther north. Things get a lot better later, but the low level energy is very close to the Mexican coast at the time. Reminiscent of Fernand's evolution. No much hope, but there's really not much happening in the short term, so this is the thing to watch for the next few days.

[AvantHiatus]

These Euro plots suggest that Pouch 25L would briefly develop into a Tropical Depression and/or TS around 60W. Bears watching, most genesis events are not predicted by the models. Infact, the probability of successful prediction is around 50% when all models agree and 20% when there is divergence.

 

Dr. Jeff Masters - Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2504

 

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

These Euro plots suggest that Pouch 25L would briefly develop into a Tropical Depression and/or TS around 60W. Bears watching, most genesis events are not predicted by the models. Infact, the probability of successful prediction is around 50% when all models agree and 20% when there is divergence.

 

Dr. Jeff Masters - Genesis of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2504

 

 

 

 

According to the Euro ensembles, there's a 40-60% chance this thing spins up over the western MDR in the next 5 days. Interesting it gives a 10-20% with the wave over the eastern MDR. The GFS ensembles give a 40-60% with the wave over the western MDR (in agreement with the Euro), but a 80-99% with the wave over the eastern MDR in the next 3 days. This pattern is remarkably similar to late August 2006, during the genesis of Debby and Ernesto. We have the CCKW, the developing MJO aligned similarly... Models also depict a somewhat similar genesis set-up, with the eastern MDR wave tracking northwestward, likely to be only a minimal TS if it develops.

[am19psu]

2006. /sad trombone

[Ed Lizard]

The Global Hawk is flying missions today and tomorrow on 'HS25L', the mid-Atlantic wave.  Looks like it still has dry air issues on visible, MIMIC TPW it is curling in a narrow ribbon of dry air towards the center, but otherwise has favorable PW around it.  The dry air ribbon, one would hope any convection at all would cure that.

 

I hope they go real invest on it, plenty of data points, something like 80 drops around it.  BTW, I don't reject the Canadian fish hurricane on this at 180 hours just because it is the Canadian.  High res FIM has been showing this as a TD or minimal TS in a week, trending a bit further North each run, now passing North of the islands, longer range 30 km FIM has come from a Cape Cod hit with a high end TS or minimal hurricane 12Z yesterday to a Maine/Canadian border TS on the 0Z.  I think the odds are better than the NHC's 5 day 20% on a TC developing.

[Derecho!]

25L just got lemoned by NHC with increased convection noted on the operational TWO.

 

Bonnie 1998 formed from a giant convectionless gyre sort of like this one, IIRC.

 

Add: Wave over Sengal was mandarinzed. SLP there is as low as 1007 mb.

[Ed Lizard]

2006. /sad trombone

 

I just double checked 2006, nothing stuck in my memory except a very boring season and the hangover from 2005, that every blob in the Atlantic was bound to be a major hurricane in three days on Wunderground.  (I hadn't found Eastern yet).

 

If people are trying to encourage Josh about an exciting October to finish the season, well, I should check the 2006 East Pac season or it could get really ugly around here.

 

 

He'd like 2006 in the East Pac.  He'd have two *September* storms to look forward to, John and Lane.

[phil882]

Yea the 00z ECMWF got a little bit more aggressive with PG25L, with genesis occurring just east of the Lesser Antilles. 12z ECMWF looks like it might be following suit.

 

EDIT: Nevermind... the 12z ECMWF backed off development and generally has a much more unfavorable synoptic evolution for the system. 

[phil882]

25L just got lemoned by NHC with increased convection noted on the operational TWO.

 

Bonnie 1998 formed from a giant convectionless gyre sort of like this one, IIRC.

 

Add: Wave over Sengal was mandarinzed. SLP there is as low as 1007 mb.

 

Irene (2011) was another similar occurrence. As the thermodynamic environment over PG95L improves we should see convection start to gradually become better organized as deeper convection starts to establish upper tropospheric outflow. The system is under light westerly vertical wind shear currently, but as convection becomes better established, this should not impede future development. 

[MarkSC]

The Dr. Jeff Masters blog that Weatherguy701 cited is interesting.  I knew the models usually missed genesis but didn't realize how often. The takeaway is that if the reliable models forecast genesis, it does occur 45%-50% of the time (based on 2011 data).  Yet, the good news in the current environment for those wanting to see a storm is that the models miss a whopping 77%-91% of all genesis events.  Also, I would not have guessed that the UKMET was the best model for successfully forecasting genesis.