Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[phil882]

I'm not at all surprised there hasn't been more discussion.  At best, it looks like a weaker, sloppier version of last year's Debby undergoing a purely subtropical genesis - and that's if all the ingredients come together at the right time.  Not nearly enough to entice the tight-core weenies. 

 

But I agree 100% that if FL can kill this dry spell it will have all been worth it.

 

I've posted this in the medium range thread... but the pattern depicted by the 12z ECMWF is remarkably similar (and by similar, I mean nearly identical) to the  forecast evolution of Sandy back in October last year. If many recall, the models were forecasting a broad gyre-like circulation with Sandy in the medium range that would hang around Florida. 

 

[NavarreDon]

Opinions?

 

 

[Srain]

Opinions?

MCS rolled off the Middle Texas Coast early yesterday associated with a 5H low now meandering E over Louisiana. Tomorrow a strong front will sweep into the NW Gulf. No chance of any tropical development but increased rain chances for Florida.

[blizzardof96]

Heres my hurricane season outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/

[Ground Scouring]

As far as landfalls are concerned, FL seems a clear favorite among most of the reputable and non-reputable forecasts which are online. The increased instability this year vs. 2011-2012 definitely nudges the door ajar to a major hurricane threatening the Southeast. If a major hurricane were to make landfall in the U.S. this year, SE FL would probably be the locale to be affected. Furthermore, the unfavorable signal from the Indian Ocean seems to be a bit weaker this year, thereby allowing more hospitable conditions to proliferate in the MDR. Such an environ would facilitate more intense convection in the ITCZ and also enable somewhat stronger cyclones in the deep tropics. High-latitude development will definitely be a feature again, but such extensive subtropical development as in 2012 seems unlikely. In a nutshell, I definitely believe that this year will be distinctly different from the past three seasons.

[Ed Lizard]

Heres my hurricane season outlook: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/

 

 

I'd love 2003 redux.  Enough West Gulf action to keep local forums happening, with no muss, fuss or damage, and while parts of Houston got flooded last weekend, my part of town was generally under half an inch.

 

And I know the tight core snobs didn't like the Isabel landfall, but that was a cool storm offshore.  I'd download SSD loops on a 56k modem (not fast) and I remember my then two year old son and I really enjoying the loops.

 

BTW, just checking the Wiki page on Isabel to refresh myself, it didn't look that terrible at landfall.  See below.

[calm_days]

 

The above image is not strictly tropical but have a look, it is a water vapor imagery loop for may 2nd and early may 3rd.

 

The look of the atmosphere , "meteosphere" (however many atmospheric layers have a dynamic path relative to weather behavior) has been crowded for months.  I feel there is a low, 20-30% chance of a completely abnormal dynamic to tropical development through August.  I guess that would leave a 70-80% chance that the crowdedness of the weather systems resolves itself and there are somehow normal continental and tropical developments within a month or two...

This is a very amateur assessment but I feel glad that there is somewhere to indicate it. 

[Floydbuster]

Hard to believe it's been a decade since the 2003 Hurricane Season. Claudette's sheared Caribbean trek and 80 kt Texas landfall, Fabian's bullseye on Bermuda, Isabel's intense landfall in North Carolina and then the feeling that we still had been "lucky". All of this culminated in 2004 and 2005.

[U_Thant]

FAIL-jiwhara? Fuji-LAME-a? I dunno, you figure out what to call this.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

[hurricaneman]

I would say watch the Caribbean from May 25th to June 10th for tropical development as May 25th the MJO is in phase 7 and should propigate to phase 8 by the first week of june and to phase 1 by June 10th so while it goes from phase 6 to 7 watch the western Caribbean

[Superstorm93]

Just for kicks and giggles (since this is way out there and the GFS has been notoriously way too progressive with the MJO so far this srping) 

 

Here's the 200mb VPA and anomalous divergent winds for late May

 

[am19psu]

Have there been any recent papers documenting models ability to accurately forecast the MJO? The last set of papers I was aware of was in 2010 which showed the Euro weeklies have some skill out to around 20 days or so. That said, empirically, I find the statistical forecasts from the BoM and the SUNY-Albany folks much more realistic than any dynamical model guidance for the MJO (this is of course old hat for the MR forecasting crowd, but I figured it'd be useful to keep documenting this stuff in the tropical thread as well).

[heavy_wx]

Have there been any recent papers documenting models ability to accurately forecast the MJO? The last set of papers I was aware of was in 2010 which showed the Euro weeklies have some skill out to around 20 days or so. That said, empirically, I find the statistical forecasts from the BoM and the SUNY-Albany folks much more realistic than any dynamical model guidance for the MJO (this is of course old hat for the MR forecasting crowd, but I figured it'd be useful to keep documenting this stuff in the tropical thread as well).

 

Here's a good paper by Kang and Kim where they found a useful (anomaly correlation greater than 0.5) lead time of about 20 days with their dynamical model. They further improved this to 22-24 combining the dynamical forecasts with statistical ones.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1

 

I'm actually doing some research now using 262 CFSv2 reforecasts of a 200 hPa VP MJO index from 1999 to 2010. I found the model to have a useful lead time of about 15 days.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Here's a good paper by Kang and Kim where they found a useful (anomaly correlation greater than 0.5) lead time of about 20 days with their dynamical model. They further improved this to 22-24 combining the dynamical forecasts with statistical ones.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1

 

I'm actually doing some research now using 262 CFSv2 reforecasts of a 200 hPa VP MJO index from 1999 to 2010. I found the model to have a useful lead time of about 15 days.

 

You should check out the Tigge data for the GFS with regards to this problem.. With respect to VP200, it use to be horrible during times when an eastward propagating convection signature hit South America... the forecast typically would always want to bring the eastward progressing anomaly back to the west. Check out figure 5.9 of my dissertation: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/publications/Dissertation.pdf

 

I know since the previous update, however, the GFS has been doing a good job through Day 7! Euro ensembles of course has the most skill from Day 7-14, followed by the Canadian Ensembles.. however the Can ensembles are not really ensembles for they change the models' parameterizations in each ensemble member and therefore are actually different models! I believe the UKMET is pretty good through Day 14.

[am19psu]

Here's a good paper by Kang and Kim where they found a useful (anomaly correlation greater than 0.5) lead time of about 20 days with their dynamical model. They further improved this to 22-24 combining the dynamical forecasts with statistical ones.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3288.1

 

I'm actually doing some research now using 262 CFSv2 reforecasts of a 200 hPa VP MJO index from 1999 to 2010. I found the model to have a useful lead time of about 15 days.

Yeah, I've seen that paper. Unfortunately, it's not really applicable to an operational setting.

[heavy_wx]

You should check out the Tigge data for the GFS with regards to this problem.. With respect to VP200, it use to be horrible during times when an eastward propagating convection signature hit South America... the forecast typically would always want to bring the eastward progressing anomaly back to the west. Check out figure 5.9 of my dissertation: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/documents/publications/Dissertation.pdf

 

I know since the previous update, however, the GFS has been doing a good job through Day 7! Euro ensembles of course has the most skill from Day 7-14, followed by the Canadian Ensembles.. however the Can ensembles are not really ensembles for they change the models' parameterizations in each ensemble member and therefore are actually different models! I believe the UKMET is pretty good through Day 14.

 

Interesting. Interactions with land seem to be a problem for the models. I found some drop off in skill when the forecast started in phases 1-2 after about 10 days, likely when the convection began to interact with the maritime continent.

 

[bluewave]

http://www.fsu.edu/indexTOFStory.html?lead.tike

 

 

Researchers at Florida State University have developed a new metric to measure seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity that focuses on the size of storms in addition to the duration and intensity, a measure that may prove important when considering a hurricane's potential for death and destruction.

 

Just ask the survivors of Hurricane Sandy.

The 2012 hurricane was only a Category 2 storm on the often referenced Saffir-Simpson scale when it became the largest hurricane on record, killing 285 people in its path in seven different countries and becoming the second costliest in U.S. history. Likewise, Hurricane Katrina was a weaker storm than 1969's Camille but caused much more destruction even though the two hurricanes followed essentially the same path.

The new metric, called Track Integrated Kinetic Energy (TIKE), builds on the concept of Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) developed in 2007 to more accurately measure the destructive potential of a storm. IKE involves using kinetic energy scales with the surface stress that forces storm surge and waves and the horizontal wind loads specified by the American Society of Civil Engineers. TIKE expands the concept by accumulating IKE over the lifespan of a tropical cyclone and over all named tropical cyclones in the hurricane season.

"Representing the activity of an Atlantic hurricane season by a number is a very difficult task," said Vasu Misra, an associate professor of meteorology in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and FSU's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS). "TIKE gives a succinct picture by taking into account the number of tropical cyclones in the season, the duration of each tropical cyclone and the time history of the wind force over a large area surrounding each tropical cyclone. This makes TIKE much more reliable as an objective measure of the seasonal activity of the Atlantic hurricanes than existing metrics."

Misra developed TIKE through a collaboration with Steven DiNapoli, a former COAPS data analyst, and Mark Powell, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration atmospheric scientist currently stationed at COAPS who created IKE with a colleague six years ago. Their paper, "The Track Integrated Kinetic Energy of the Atlantic Tropical Cyclones," was published in the American Meteorological Society's Monthly Weather Review.

Misra, DiNapoli and Powell calculated TIKE for each hurricane season, including all named tropical cyclones in the Atlantic from 1990 through 2011, and found larger TIKE values during La Niña conditions and warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature conditions. The information will help them in developing a model that can predict TIKE for an entire season — a prediction that could help emergency managers, businesses and residents with preparedness.

"I look forward to the global climate models improving enough to allow skillful predictions of storm size, which will help us predict TIKE for an upcoming season," Powell said.

TIKE is not intended as an alternative to existing metrics but as a complimentary tool, the researchers said.

The need for more information about the potential for destruction was brought home during the 2012 season. The Integrated Kinetic Energy calculation that TIKE is based on was more than 300 terajoules for Hurricane Sandy. The figure, which represents units of energy, was the largest IKE measurement for any hurricane between 1990 and 2006.

"That means that Sandy actually had more wind forcing over a large area than Hurricane Katrina," Misra said. "If the public was aware that this number was so high, which is an indication of the large potential for damage from storm surge and waves, some of them might have been able to make better life- and property-saving decisions."

This research was supported by grants from NOAA, the Southeast Ecological Science Center of the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

[Ed Lizard]

^^  I sense some confusion potential, talking about Sandy's TIKE, which would start in the Caribbean, being used as some kind of metric for warnings instead of Saffir Simpson category.  IKE might be better than Saffir-Simpson category alone for wave damage estimation, but TIKE as a time/track integrated feature is more like ACE

 

Or, I see a contradiction before the first sentence, a complimentary measurement or metric, and the rest.

 

TIKE is not intended as an alternative to existing metrics but as a complimentary tool, the researchers said.

The need for more information about the potential for destruction was brought home during the 2012 season. The Integrated Kinetic Energy calculation that TIKE is based on was more than 300 terajoules for Hurricane Sandy. The figure, which represents units of energy, was the largest IKE measurement for any hurricane between 1990 and 2006.

"That means that Sandy actually had more wind forcing over a large area than Hurricane Katrina," Misra said. "If the public was aware that this number was so high, which is an indication of the large potential for damage from storm surge and waves, some of them might have been able to make better life- and property-saving decisions."

 

 

 

 

 

And did Sandy cause a ballpark 20 foot plus surge anywhere like Katrina did in Mississippi?  (Who knows, maybe it did...)

[bluewave]

^^  I sense some confusion potential, talking about Sandy's TIKE, which would start in the Caribbean, being used as some kind of metric for warnings instead of Saffir Simpson category.  IKE might be better than Saffir-Simpson category alone for wave damage estimation, but TIKE as a time/track integrated feature is more like ACE

 

Or, I see a contradiction before the first sentence, a complimentary measurement or metric, and the rest.

 

 

 

 

And did Sandy cause a ballpark 20 foot plus surge anywhere like Katrina did in Mississippi?  (Who knows, maybe it did...)

 

I think what needs to happen is for two numbers to be generated for forecasters in each storm. One for saffir simpson

wind impacts and another for surge threat. In order not to confuse the public, I would use the higher of the two as

the lead headline to describe the threats to the public. Even though the headlines for Sandy started off with historic

flooding will be expected, people instead focused on that it was a cat 1 storm from the people that I spoke to. Most

people that I met after the storm said that they couldn't believe that the water came up so high since Irene was

also a one and it wasn't so bad. I also heard local officials in Louisiana say that they never believed  the surge would be

so high from Isaac since it was only a category one.

 

The TIKE and IKE scales are meant to be a tool for forecasters to help them gauge the full potential

of storm impacts that can be expected. 

 

 

TIKE is not intended as an alternative to existing metrics but as a complimentary tool, the researchers said.

The need for more information about the potential for destruction was brought home during the 2012 season.

[Eyewall2005]

 

[hurricaneman]

Is it me or does it sound like hes removing the 1996 analog from his first video and going with the 2004,2005 analogs. If so its going to be a long hurricane season for Florida and the Gulf, he even has 2008 as an analog and that year Fay flooded the Florida Peninsula badly and Ike did great damage to Galveston

[Ed Lizard]

I didn't hear mention of a single seasonal analog in that video, it was a bit MJO early and then all CFS late.

 

If the CFS is to the Euro monthlies as the GFS is to the Euro, not always worse but that is the way to bet, I'd think of a nice quiet season for the Western Gulf.

 

I've seen a few forecasts now that look like Florida and the SE US.  Best videos come from Florida, and its been 7 years w/o.

[hurricaneman]

Right now the shear is ripping through the atlantic, is it normal to have the jet stream so far south or could this be a saving grace if this stays as is.

 

I would have to say I think the jet stream will move much farther north come June or July, but seeing the jet stream so far south makes me worry about quality systems and it possibly being another year of quantity over quality

 

PS I like quality systems only at sea and not landfalling as landfalling storms can kill

[icebreaker5221]

Right now the shear is ripping through the atlantic, is it normal to have the jet stream so far south or could this be a saving grace if this stays as is.

 

I would have to say I think the jet stream will move much farther north come June or July, but seeing the jet stream so far south makes me worry about quality systems and it possibly being another year of quantity over quality

 

PS I like quality systems only at sea and not landfalling as landfalling storms can kill

 

 

You're right, 200 mb winds have been anomalously strong over the central north Atlantic, resulting in greater than average wind shear north of 20N.  This has been due to an anomalously large / persistent upper-level low pressure situated between 30-40N.  However, there's no reason to believe this will be a persistent feature through hurricane season.  In fact, most models have 200 mb wind relaxing significantly over the next week or so. 

 

 

 

Also, south of 20N, where the "best" genesis typically occurs, has actually been associated with lower than average shear this May. 

[Superstorm93]

Things still seem to be on track for an above to well-above average season

 

The MDR has quickly warmed once again and may rival the levels it reached back in March. If shear continues to relax through May, we could start to see some really impressive values. Heat potential is also above average in this region already, so as time progresses and things continue to warm it appears that the MDR will definitely be the place to watch this season for significant systems. 

 

 

And just for fun again, the GFS continues to hurl a massive MJO pulse into the Atlantic by late May (and develops a bogus-cane as a result). Its odd because it has the support of the GEFS, CFS, and Canadian ensembles. I highly doubt we see something like this as early as the models are currently depicting due to their progressive bias, but it is certainly possible that we see an MJO pulse of some magnitude move through around the June 1-10 time period. 

 

 

And just something that's caught my eye over the past few weeks. Would be nice to see an active July for once. 

 

CFS v2 over its past 40 runs is also depicting an anomalously wet July for much of the Atlantic

 

[wxmx]

Next 2 weeks should see a boost in SSTAs for the MDR...No true -NAO or -AO, but a very strong and persistent Azores low, coupled with a NW Atlantic high that will morph into a west -NAO should keep low level westerly anomalies in the deep tropics.

Things still seem to be on track for an above to well-above average season

The MDR has quickly warmed once again and may rival the levels it reached back in March. If shear continues to relax through May, we could start to see some really impressive values. Heat potential is also above average in this region already, so as time progresses and things continue to warm it appears that the MDR will definitely be the place to watch this season for significant systems.

ScreenHunter_20 May. 08 15.52.png

We are probably near peak for the short term, as the Azores mid/upper low weakens, and the low level ridge strengthens. I expect the MDR to cool some on average for the next 10 days.

[Mike.Ventrice]

I'm favoring a period during early June where we might see an early season TC pop out. Should be timed with the upper-trop easterly/lower trop westerly wind phase of the MJO. Since it's early in the season, this storm would have to form somewhere over the Caribbean.

[am19psu]

I'm favoring a period during early June where we might see an early season TC pop out. Should be timed with the upper-trop easterly/lower trop westerly wind phase of the MJO. Since it's early in the season, this storm would have to form somewhere over the Caribbean.

Or subtropical nonsense off the EC/Bahamas

[Mike.Ventrice]

Ah yeah that's true- could be some sub-tropical gyre fun.

[DaculaWeather]

Awesome video. Thanks!