Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 A bit old, but since the tropics remain dead... ASCAT caught the African wave earlier today. Remains pretty much convectionless, but it could fire up once the CCKW passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I really like the potential of some of these African waves to finally spit out a good system in the next seven to twelve days...fun times ahead i think. Need for these to wait to form for a few weeks, because the upper Texas coast usually isn't hit by a big one after Sept 15ish, and I have family and economic interests there. kthanxbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 FYI: Global Hawk (environmental payload) is back out tomorrow. Tuesday Aug 27: Science Flight #3 (target P25L) 0545 Engine Start 0700 Take off (Runway 22 expected) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Been having trouble waking up before Euro time and falling back asleep. I myself like seeing the GFS with a clearly indentifiable wave/vort max North of the ABC islands at the truncation, with what would appear to be no more than 10 knots of deep shear between 850 and 250 mb in 2 inch plus PW. Heading West so it would be increasing distance after from South America. Resolution reduction seems to immediately affect the GFS solution, but still sort of has a happy ending, a Florida threat. 18Z FIM9 at 168 a bit South of the Euro (35 to 40 knot TS hitting Central Lesser Antilles, and new GFS even further South at 168 hours. All the models shows a system, natural spread on positions at a week, but all have something. I like the cut of the job if the FIM heights, which I *think* would probably keep the storm South of Hispaniola, and again, perhaps support a Florida threat. ETA King Euro looks fishy. Not a good sign... Silver lining, new 0Z 15km FIM9 supports 12Z and 18Z runs, and FIM website claims 15 km FIM competitive with Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Morning guys, latest 00Z GFS is stalling genesis on the leading easterly over over the MDR today... spinning it up over the western Caribbean and later taking it into the Gulf as a TC (in addition to the C.V. systems pumping off Africa). Yes this is hour 348 but it's something to keep an eye on as the models do seem to be trending this way in previous runs. Looking into the ensembles- most members try to bring this leading system up the U.S. East coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 When I just looked in on this thread an 'Authentication... WSI' pop-up window appeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 Morning guys, latest 00Z GFS is stalling genesis on the leading easterly over over the MDR today... spinning it up over the western Caribbean and later taking it into the Gulf as a TC (in addition to the C.V. systems pumping off Africa). Yes this is hour 348 but it's something to keep an eye on as the models do seem to be trending this way in previous runs. Looking into the ensembles- most members try to bring this leading system up the U.S. East coast. Hope they're right that something's gonna form and that it's gonna make it across. This deadness is just getting out of control. When I just looked in on this thread an 'Authentication... WSI' pop-up window appeared. I'm getting that, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kennethb Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Patience Josh, just be patient. Somehow, someway, heat will be transported out of the tropics. Please just not through Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHurricane Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 When I just looked in on this thread an 'Authentication... WSI' pop-up window appeared. It's the image that Mike has hot-linked in his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 sorry guys it's early- just take a look at the 00Z GFS op run I removed the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I took care of it in Josh's post, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 And the drum beat goes on...W of 50... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 And the drum beat goes on...W of 50... Can't wait for a TD to form off NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Can't wait for a TD to form off NJ That particular product seems on the optimistic side, and may be sensitive to what aren't really tropical lows. I think it sets the net for being 'tropical' rather low. 0Z GFS not really tropical and barely a cyclone phase diagram... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I <3 non-tropical mid-level lows in the Florida Straits in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Vertical instability has rapidly increased past few days in the tropical Atlantic. The lid on tropical development is gradually coming off... I would expect at least 3 new tropical storms and at least 1 hurricane by Sep 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Wave at the bottom right of the image looking better. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What's up with all that convection down in the far SW Carribean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What's up with all that convection down in the far SW Carribean?That's semi-permanent monsoon trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Thanks, 12z GFS takes the wave about to leave Africa and develops into a TC fish. Then has slow develpment on a wave the first week of September which ends up north of the islands and gets picked up by a long wave trough exiting the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Folks, Well, the MJO still seems to be on schedule for its very strong phase 1 event, the strongest phase 1 near the season peak since the 1979 extremely strong event (amplitude peaked at 3.09 in phase 1 and lasted 18 days over 1.50 amplitude in phases 1 and 2) associated with the geneses of David and Frederic (also Gloria of 1979). Per the latest Euro ensemble based forecast, the MJO would be in phase 1 at 1.5+ amplitude 8/28-9/4 and peak at an impressive ~2.4 amplitude Sep. 1-2. It would then remain over an amplitude of 1.5 in phase 2 Sep. 5-7. So, in total, it would exceed 1.5 amplitude for 11 days, which would tie it for 2nd longest in phases 1-2 near peak season. Based on the Euro prediction, 1979 and 2013 would be far and away the two strongest in peak 1 near the season peak since at least MJO records began in 1974. In 3rd is the 2.01 of 9/4/1983. The latest GFS ensemble based forecast (generally less reliable than the Euro) is even more impressive with 8/27-9/10 all being forecasted to have an amplitude of 1.5+ in phase 1 and a very impressive peak in phase 1 of ~2.75 9/2-3! If anything, the GFS ensemble prediction tells me that the Euro's strong phase 1 prediction isn't out in left field. However, I do think the less reliable GFS is too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 I <3 non-tropical mid-level lows in the Florida Straits in the morning. Especially when they put a little lemonade on the otherwise featureless NHC Outlook Map. Edit to add- GFS drifts mid level low Northward, than drifts it back WSW into the Gulf, where it could again prompt a perfunctory 10% lemon again in 3 or 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 This is definitely an unusual summer along the northern Gulf Coast. Low of 66 in Mobile this morning and tomorrow morning is forecast to be 64. A taste of fall in late August after a summer of copious rainfall which happened without the influence of an organized tropical system. Interested to see how the northern Gulf Coast fares in September with the expected uptick in tropical activity. Our ground is so saturated even a weaker tropical system would likely bring down a high number of trees, not to mention the potential flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Another run of the Euro with no tropical development. It takes the wave in eastern Carribean that the GFS has been toying around with and shears it out by day 8. On the other hand, several of the 12z GEFS members develop a tropical cyclone and have it near the US coastline around days 10-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 27, 2013 Author Share Posted August 27, 2013 What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 What a joke. We are waiting for that invest, it's a joke that this has 0% chance of TC developement in 48 hours. The 12z Euro shows some developement of two potential tropical cyclones in the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Looking like my call of no majors is becoming more and more likely. Lots of crapola storms...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Looking like my call of no majors is becoming more and more likely. Lots of crapola storms...... Are you referring to the entire season? If so, the chances of us going without at least one major hurricane are incredibly slim. In fact, since 1851, it's only happened four times: the seasons of 1968, 1972, 1986, and 1994. In all four cases, there was an ongoing, strong El Niño. We're in a very La Niña-ish pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 This tropical season is reminding me how the tornado season was so quiet and then things came together perfectly. The signals are there, iust a matter of time when the tropics will be extremely active. To me, we will have a very busy season from September into early November.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 This should be an invest for sure not sure why the nhc hasnt yet either We are waiting for that invest, it's a joke that this has 0% chance of TC developement in 48 hours. The 12z Euro shows some developement of two potential tropical cyclones in the MDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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