Big O Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 What about the area in the east-central Caribbean Sea, which is heading for the western Caribbean (a hotbed for TC genesis)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Next wave entering the Atlantic at a good latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Simulated IR seven days from now. Within 7 days that can't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Within 7 days that can't happen... This wave is now at 20% chance for development within five days as of the 2 PM TWO. I expect this % to steadily rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 TD 6 has formed deep in the Bay of Campeche. It looks awesome. Too bad it will be onshore in 12 hr. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Within 7 days that can't happen... Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 TD 6 has formed deep in the Bay of Campeche. It looks awesome. Too bad it will be onshore in 12 hr. Blah. The good news is that one of these CV systems should give you a good chase (somewhere tbd). And of course that those precious SST's in the BOC cradle aren't torn up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Within 7 days that can't happen... Actually it can... and it probably will. Good call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The 18z GFS completely dropped development of the wave depicted as a sub-980mb hurricane on previous runs over the past day. At a quick glance I don't see any reason why it would...perhaps the mets can help? EDIT: Nevermind. Looks like the 18z GFS missed satellite data. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/gfs/t18z/index.summary.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 The 18z GFS completely dropped development of the wave depicted as a sub-980mb hurricane on previous runs over the past day. At a quick glance I don't see any reason why it would...perhaps the mets can help? The Euro is on the weak side until it crosses 55W. Sometimes it takes until the 18z GFS to catch up with the 12z Euro. The 18z run starts to develop more as it gets west of 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXHAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVERECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCEDFAIR-NAHN).A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THEFORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENTTROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...19.1N 95.7WABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICOMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES$FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 When I posted that to Facebook I realized I posted that the winds were found at 7:30pm Eastern, which of course hasn't happened yet. Timezones are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Actually it can... and it probably will. Good call though.I still have my doubts but I wouldn't mind seeing a system at this point, kinda desperate for one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Can it make a minimal Cat 1 in the final 12 hours??? 000URNT12 KNHC 252300VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL952013A. 25/22:31:10ZB. 19 deg 06 min N 095 deg 43 min WC. NAD. 52 ktE. 348 deg 18 nmF. 063 deg 42 ktG. 348 deg 18 nmH. EXTRAP 1003 mbI. 18 C / 491 mJ. 23 C / 501 mK. 18 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 1O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF309 01BBA INVEST OB 06MAX FL WIND 42 KT 348/18 22:24:30ZSLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Is it just me or does the N GOM resemble a monsoonal trough? Fernand looks good, would have been a lot stronger if it didnt run into land so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 The center of Fernand looks to be drifting into the -83C tops to its west. Briefly looking at the data, it does appear that Fernand is already a 45-50 knot tropical cyclone and may have a weak inner core to some extent. OTOH... OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTEDTO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THENEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FORSOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 With all the convection near Fernand, looks like one massive system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 TD 6 has formed deep in the Bay of Campeche. It looks awesome. Too bad it will be onshore in 12 hr. Blah. You know it's been a bad couple of years when Josh is generous enough to say that a TS looks awesome. Wave off of Africa up to 30% now for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 With all the convection near Fernand, looks like one massive system. The passage of that (particularly strong) Kelvin wave probably didn't hurt. Hopefully MDR looks just as good in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Pressure is at 1003.8mb and falling at Veracruz with wind gusts to 54 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 An update on Fernand and a quick look back at some significant seasons with big activity after August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Pressure is at 1003.8mb and falling at Veracruz with wind gusts to 54 kts.Peak gust was 62.9 kts. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VERV4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Edit: Peak gust was 62.9 kts. Beat me to it this hour, but yeah that's actually quite impressive. Min SLP was 1003.5mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 This curious little guy has been going through convective pulses all day long. Just crossing 50W now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Fernand likely would have become the first hurricane of the season given another 12 hours over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 This curious little guy has been going through convective pulses all day long. Just crossing 50W now. GOES0115201323841sfFE.jpg That'd be a nice little microstorm. IR2 suggests there is some low level circulation (not closed, best I can tell) and it may have some turning in the MIMIC TPW imagery. Not a modeling guru, but people do talk of small systems escaping model detection because of resolution issues. About the North Gulf, CIMSS at least showing a generally East-West oriented area of enhanced low to mid vorticity, maybe when Fernand moves inland and BoC pressures rise, it'll have a better chance to at least try to spin up a depression for my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 This curious little guy has been going through convective pulses all day long. Just crossing 50W now. GOES0115201323841sfFE.jpg The reason this is not being picked up by models is because its small, models have a hard time with these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 There was a microcyclone in the BOC just before Katrina developed in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 There was a microcyclone in the BOC just before Katrina developed in 2005. Garrett Bastardi complied some interesting statistics about cyclones in the BOC and significant Tropical Cyclones at landfall about 1-2 weeks later. The correlation is decent.. about 26/36 storms that were Category 2 or higher at landfall, East of 90 W over the last 50 years had a little system in the BOC/Western GOMEX 1-2 weeks beforehand. There are some notable storms with this correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Garrett Bastardi complied some interesting statistics about cyclones in the BOC and significant Tropical Cyclones at landfall about 1-2 weeks later. The correlation is decent.. about 26/36 storms that were Category 2 or higher at landfall, East of 90 W over the last 50 years had a little system in the BOC/Western GOMEX 1-2 weeks beforehand. Probably due to eastward progression of CCKWs, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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