Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[CT Rain]

Question: When 1938 made landfall, was it a fully warm-core system or was it already undergoing extratropical transition (which, as we know, does NOT necessarily mean the winds are weakening)?

 

Much like Sandy it was a warm seclusion. 

[HurricaneJosh]

Much like Sandy it was a warm seclusion. 

 

I'm not disagreeing with what you're saying, but I think when making a comparison like that, it's also important to point out the great structural differences between the two cyclones at landfall.  In terms of actual weather and conditions on the ground, they were really nothing alike.

[Floydbuster]

I still think we'll see a decent burst of activity. Remember, at this point in 2004 we were on Earl/Frances, so not too far off from the named storms we've seen this year. (Of course we had already seen two hurricanes, both of them majors) but we were still yet to see six more hurricanes, four of them majors.

[GaWx]

Fwiw, the 6Z gfs has a TD form ~day 7 and it hits the Leewards to PR days 10-11 as a TS. It then hits S FL as a 'cane day 14. No one model run in week 2 by itself is worth much at all as far as specifics are concerned. However, due to the unusually strong phase 1 MJO persistent predictions, which is about as favorable an MJO as can exist near peak based on actual history, the general ideas of the runs are going to start getting my attention more than the usual. Now we have the latest Euro and GFS op. runs suggesting a westward to WNWard moving TC near the Leewards day 10 and in a position to quite possibly threaten the US in about two weeks. The runs are obviously going to waffle, but we'll see if a general threatening trend starts to establish itself over the next few days of runs. The last time we had this ideal of an MJO setup near peak season was in 1979, when two long trackers, David and Frederic, became monsters at some point (cat.4-5) and ultimately hit the US. (Aside: I was hit directly by David in Savannah..it was a big mess and it was only a borderline 1-2).

[bluewave]

  Well, today is still another in a long strong of days in which the Euro ens. mean predicts the strongest peak/near peak season MJO phase 1 at least since the 1979 phase 1 peak that occurred when David and Frederic formed. This is being forecasted for the last few days of this month and into early Sep. after a few days of phase 8. The GFS ens. mean is fairly similar.

 

 Ivan of 2004 formed during phase 1 though it was only barely outside the circle.

 

 Since 1995, a pretty high ~25% of days in phase 1 during Sep. have had a TC genesis (highest of any phase). To put that into perspective, that's at the rate of 7 TC's per Sep. vs. the 1995-2012 rate of 5 TC's per Sep. for all MJO phases, combined. Also, 5 of the 7 Sep's since 1995 that have been in phase 1 have had a TC genesis during phase 1. When considering all of this, keep in mind that this would, assuming halfway decent validated model forecasts, be the strongest phase 1 by a very wide margin for early to mid Sep. since 1995. All of the others were just outside the circle. The only one far outside the circle since 1995 in Sep. (similar to what's being forecasted) was LATE in Sep. (1999).

 

 So, I'm curious if anyone here who has a good feel for the MJO has an opinion about this. Is the quiet going to continue and this likely be one of the few phase 1's since 1995 that hasn't produced a TC even if it has the very strong amplitude that is being forecasted? Arguably, the MJO would be about as favorable as it can be in Sep. considering it being phase 1 and very strong at that. Or is it going to get active?

 

 

 Edit: There have been only 29 days in phase 1 in Sep. since 1995. Only seven of the 18 Sep.'s have had a portion in phase 1. Seven TC's formed during these 29 days: four H's and 3 TS's. 4 of these 7 hit the CONUS with Ivan the strongest hit.

 

The only thing that we can say right now is that 1979 didn't have the more stable atmosphere

with suppressed convection in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean like we are seeing so far this year. 

But as always, it's hard to gauge potential storm intensity until it gets modeled in the short to medium 

range. You would expect to see named storms as the MJO moves into 1 at the peak of the

season in Early September.

 

 

[GaWx]

The only thing that we can say right now is that 1979 didn't have the more stable atmosphere

with suppressed convection in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean like we are seeing so far this year. 

But as always, it's hard to gauge potential storm intensity until it gets modeled in the short to medium 

range. You would expect to see named storms as the MJO moves into 1 at the peak of the

season in Early September.

 

Bluewave,

1) Would you mind posting the map for just 7/1-8/31/79? That would be more of an apples to apples comparison though still not there since it would incorporate an active last week of Aug. Actually, if you could do, say, 7/1-8/22/79, that would be ideal.

 

2) Similar to 2013, early to mid August 1979 was quiet with regard to geneses with none 8/1-24. Then the basin suddenly woke up for the last week of August three days after the MJO entered phase 1 from 8 and then intensified there.

[NaoPos]

With the MJO moving into Phase 1, that creates favorable lift in the ATL basin. MY question is does that promote a healthy environment as far as a relaxation in shear? 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

With the MJO moving into Phase 1, that creates favorable lift in the ATL basin. MY question is does that promote a healthy environment as far as a relaxation in shear? 

 

No. And I expect we see more 2012 type struggeling trop storms in the MDR. I have a gut feeling no majors this year. Hate that damn dust.

[Srain]

No. And I expect we see more 2012 type struggeling trop storms in the MDR. I have a gut feeling no majors this year. Hate that damn dust.

For the life of me I'll never understand the fixation on the MDR. Past history proves that development well W of the MDR can provide an environment suitable for TC Genesis and sustain major tropical cyclones.

 

 

There may be a chance for TC genesis tomorrow into Tuesday if convection can become established and develop in the Bay of Campeche. Jorge may get a weak system making landfall to his E.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

For the life of me I'll never understand the fixation on the MDR. Past history proves that development well W of the MDR can provide an environment suitable for TC Genesis and sustain major tropical cyclones.

 

08242013 Carla_1961_track.png

 

There may be a chance for TC genesis tomorrow into Tuesday if convection can become established and develop in the Bay of Campeche. Jorge may get a weak system making landfall to his E.

 

08242013 00Z NCEP EMC TC Genesis Probs genprob_4enscon_2013082400_altg_000_048.png

 

Very true. But personally as a surfer on Long Island long track cape verde type storms that fish are things of beauty and I just do not see them happening this year. Hurricane Bill of 09 is my personal favorite with a 20 foot swell directed right at the NY/NJ!!!!!

[bluewave]

Bluewave,

1) Would you mind posting the map for just 7/1-8/31/79? That would be more of an apples to apples comparison though still not there since it would incorporate an active last week of Aug. Actually, if you could do, say, 7/1-8/22/79, that would be ideal.

 

2) Similar to 2013, early to mid August 1979 was quiet with regard to geneses with none 8/1-24. Then the basin suddenly woke up for the last week of August three days after the MJO entered phase 1 from 8 and then intensified there.

 

Sure. I agree with you that the MJO going into phase 1 during the start of September should result in TC development

then.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Looking at BAM tracks for 95L, no GFS forecast shear at all, and no time over water...

 

 

EDIT TO ADD

 

 

Verbatim, GFS is awfully close to being a 1009 mb tropical depression at landfall near Tampico.

 

 

[wxmx]

Waters in the Atlantic basin have sucked so far, so Invest 95L looked for better breeding grounds...like inland in the Yucatan peninsula. It's the best looking disturbance so far this season, with <-70C cloud tops, and even some -80s C at times.

 

Time sensitive

[Ed Lizard]

^^ If it increases no more in organization, it should qualify as a tropical depression as soon as it goes 'feet wet'.  It appears to have a closed low level circulation.

 

This thing might be rocking and rolling if it got much time over water.

 

 

SHEAR (KT)        10     8    10    11     6     5     4     1     3     8     9    11    15
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -2    -3    -3    -1    -1    -3     2     3     0     0     0     0
SHEAR DIR        289   288   256   275   298   266     1   325   252   329   305   312   299
SST ©         29.3  29.4  29.4  29.3  29.4  29.6  29.8

 

[wxmeddler]

^^ If it increases no more in organization, it should qualify as a tropical depression as soon as it goes 'feet wet'.  It appears to have a closed low level circulation.

 

This thing might be rocking and rolling if it got much time over water.

 

 I don't think it will ever see water again at it's current direction.

 

edit: in the Atlantic basin..

[wxmx]

Both the Euro and GFS are very similar...with the GFS being a tad north. Similar evolution, getting 95L wet near Laguna de Terminos and back inland near Tampico (Euro is south, GFS very close to Tampico). Also, it looks like similar strengthening rate (modest) in both models...which would mean at least a TD or minimal TS at landfall.

[AutoPenalti]

Ugh, anything exciting yet?

[Ed Lizard]

Ugh, anything exciting yet?

 

 

I can sort of see a light at the end of the tunnel of horrible ennui.

 

Euro has a storm now couple of runs in a row, and the 500 mb pattern isn't automatic fish even at that latitude, and GEFS showing storms in a similar time period, and by two weeks a couple seem to have a Carolinas threat.  Visions of Hugo dance in my head.

 

This has been the August of our discontent, but September sure looks better.  And college football kicks off in less than a week.

[Ed Lizard]

Anyone have access to the longer range Euro ensembles?  Because it does look like it will start getting better, as far as activity, now the question is how many come near the Caribbean, Central America and North America.

 

I wish I paid more attention when people talk of things like the NAO, I am rather weak in using that in Summer/TC forecasting.  But I'm willing to learn.

 

The GEFS means look reasonably optimistic, fairly flat at 10 days and a suggestion of the mean trough back towards the Mississipi River, or a favorable East Coast and Eastern Gulf pattern.

 

Tame Tampico Teaser is a mandarin now.

[wxmx]

18zGfs is stronger with 95L this run...my interpretation would be a mid end TS (40-55 kts) with landfall around Tampico.

Three days later another weak disturbance for northern Tamaulipas.

CCKW doing it's dirty work.

[wxtrackercody]

 

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. WHETHER TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OCCURS OR NOT...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

[Srain]

What a mess.

 

[EasternUSWX]

What a mess.

 

 

 

Got that right.

 

[Coach McGuirk]

It's the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Andrew and there's no tropical threats out there so TWS is showing how their new cone of certainty is better than 20 years ago.  Thanks for the hindsight prediction guys! 

[phil882]

Got that right.

 

Maybe for now... but its clear that 95L is reasonably well organized (more vertically coherent than 93L last week) so it has a much better chance of significant organization once it dips into the BOC. The CCKW Mike posted about a few days ago is no doubt helping all the convection the last 24-48 hours, and also might help to explain why guidance was particularly slow to the catch with this system (models still generally do a poor job at best with CCKW evolution and hence subsequent TC evolution that is enhanced from CCKW dynamics). 

 

Interestingly, the GFS is not quite finished with the Gulf of Mexico after 95L moves onshore Monday. The dangling frontal boundary currently located over to deep south is likely to continue pushing into the GOM early next week. As the boundary breaks down, its likely there will continue to be unsettled weather in the GOM and the GFS wants to spin up another disturbance that moves westward into northern Mexico. This looks to be an exclusive TX/MX threat as the mid-level ridging should be fairly strong over the midwest next week. 

[phil882]

And something for the long range... for once both the ECMWF and GFS agree the next TC threat could organize just east of the Lesser Antilles in the day 5-8 range. Naturally the timing and potential track are still way out there at this point, but its nice to finally see guidance picking up on something. Given the expected favorable MJO phase (potentially with a leading CCKW to kick things off) I'm pretty optimistic about seeing early September as a rather active period (not a bold prediction haha). The HS3 folks will be excited to finally test the Hurricane Sentinel into something other than a hybrid tropical system (Nadine last year) or SAL. 

[HurricaneJosh]

And something for the long range... for once both the ECMWF and GFS agree the next TC threat could organize just east of the Lesser Antilles in the day 5-8 range. Naturally the timing and potential track are still way out there at this point, but its nice to finally see guidance picking up on something. Given the expected favorable MJO phase (potentially with a leading CCKW to kick things off) I'm pretty optimistic about seeing early September as a rather active period (not a bold prediction haha). The HS3 folks will be excited to finally test the Hurricane Sentinel into something other than a hybrid tropical system (Nadine last year) or SAL. 

 

But is it gonna be more fish action?  Cuz if so, I'd rather the NATL just stay dead.  

[wxtrackercody]

But is it gonna be more fish action?  Cuz if so, I'd rather the NATL just stay dead.  

[phil882]

But is it gonna be more fish action?  Cuz if so, I'd rather the NATL just stay dead.  

 

The 12z ECMWF had a much stronger ridge than the GFS at the time of TC genesis... plus its FAR too early to count out the MDR long range threat as of yet. In general, the amount of mid-level ridging in the MDR is underestimated due to global spectral models having no aerosol assimilation... meaning SAL outbreaks aren't handled properly in the long range and the implications they have in enhancing mid-level ridging.

 

Just look at the recent examples of egregious mid-level ridge deficiencies when it comes to recent TCs in the past decade. Ike (2008), Earl (2010), and Issac (2012) were all MDR TCs that made it substantially further west than originally expected. Sure there are examples to the contrary, but generally when it comes to overall errors in track guidance, its typically too slow and too poleward from most MDR TCs. 

[wxmeddler]

Good News! The 00z Run of the GFS ingested a lot of the dropsondes (full tropospheric profile (~100mb to surface)) from the Global Hawk flying out by the Cape Verde islands.