Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[IsentropicLift]

I'm from NJ and I've lived here all my life. I was part of the response down to Seaside Heights after Sandy. My volunteer fire department sent eight of us down for 72 hours. In some cases foundations were wiped clean. Houses along the shore were pushed into other houses which then pushed them into other houses. A church that was several blocks inland that was over 200 years old was never found. When I tell you it was complete and total devistation I'm not exaggerating. One of our guys had been a career firefighter with the city of Clifton and he was at ground zero on 9/11. He said that the level of damage was comparable. I can simply not imagine a more destructive or devistating hit for the NJ shore than what Sandy brought us. It's amazing that more lifes were not lost. Credit to the NHC, mets and local govt's for getting the word out that Sandy was no joke.

 

One storm that hasn't been mentioned is the 1944 cane that affected the area. A few locals that were alive back then said it worse than Sandy.

[Ed Lizard]

If accurate, 1012 mb at this buoy...

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42360&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

 

Wind has gone come calm at the Petrobras buoy in the Gulf.  Only problem is buoy is somewhat West of the convection.

 

(Not saying I don't appreciate vigorous debate on Northeast warm core storms.  BTW, I'd bet my favorite, the Blizzard of '78, probably was warm core.  Trying to remember if I read that anywhere.  But I bet it did.)

 

Gulf lemon also now a pseudo-invest, HS 26L.  No idea what that really means.

 

 

 

Edit for oops

[Sunny and Warm]

If accurate, 1012 mb at this buoy...

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42360&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

 

Wind has gone come at the Petrobras buoy in the Gulf.  Only problem is buoy is somewhat West of the convection.

 

(Not saying I don't appreciate vigorous debate on Northeast warm core storms.  BTW, I'd bet my favorite, the Blizzard of '78, probably was warm core.  Trying to remember if I read that anywhere.  But I bet it did.)

 

Gulf lemon also now a pseudo-invest, HS 26L.  No idea what that really means.

from blizzardof78.org:

 

The storm had originally formed as a weak, extra-tropical cyclone off the coast of South Carolina.  But soon it ran into an arctic cold front moving across the Appalachians.  When it combined with unusually strong high pressure over central Canada and very cold air, the mix became a kind of nightmare perfect storm.  To top it off, the blizzard was essentially pinned in over New England for 36 hours, reigning snow down on the region as it could not escape into the Atlantic Ocean.

 

 

Naw, just an overzealous nor'easter.

[wxsmwhrms]

If accurate, 1012 mb at this buoy...

 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42360&meas=pres&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

 

Wind has gone come at the Petrobras buoy in the Gulf.  Only problem is buoy is somewhat West of the convection.

 

(Not saying I don't appreciate vigorous debate on Northeast warm core storms.  BTW, I'd bet my favorite, the Blizzard of '78, probably was warm core.  Trying to remember if I read that anywhere.  But I bet it did.)

 

Gulf lemon also now a pseudo-invest, HS 26L.  No idea what that really means.

 

Now 20% with slow development possible.  Certainly looking better organized in visible imagery and on radar.

[GaWx]

 Meanwhile, the Euro ensemble mean continues to predict the strongest amplitude phase 1/2 MJO by far for near the peak of the season since at least 1979, when David and Frederic formed. That is one strong MJO prediction!!

 

  Well, today is still another in a long strong of days in which the Euro ens. mean predicts the strongest peak/near peak season MJO phase 1 at least since the 1979 phase 1 peak that occurred when David and Frederic formed. This is being forecasted for the last few days of this month and into early Sep. after a few days of phase 8. The GFS ens. mean is fairly similar.

 

 Ivan of 2004 formed during phase 1 though it was only barely outside the circle.

 

 Since 1995, a pretty high ~25% of days in phase 1 during Sep. have had a TC genesis (highest of any phase). To put that into perspective, that's at the rate of 7 TC's per Sep. vs. the 1995-2012 rate of 5 TC's per Sep. for all MJO phases, combined. Also, 5 of the 7 Sep's since 1995 that have been in phase 1 have had a TC genesis during phase 1. When considering all of this, keep in mind that this would, assuming halfway decent validated model forecasts, be the strongest phase 1 by a very wide margin for early to mid Sep. since 1995. All of the others were just outside the circle. The only one far outside the circle since 1995 in Sep. (similar to what's being forecasted) was LATE in Sep. (1999).

 

 So, I'm curious if anyone here who has a good feel for the MJO has an opinion about this. Is the quiet going to continue and this likely be one of the few phase 1's since 1995 that hasn't produced a TC even if it has the very strong amplitude that is being forecasted? Arguably, the MJO would be about as favorable as it can be in Sep. considering it being phase 1 and very strong at that. Or is it going to get active?

 

 

 Edit: There have been only 29 days in phase 1 in Sep. since 1995. Only seven of the 18 Sep.'s have had a portion in phase 1. Seven TC's formed during these 29 days: four H's and 3 TS's. 4 of these 7 hit the CONUS with Ivan the strongest hit.

[Ed Lizard]

from blizzardof78.org:

 

The storm had originally formed as a weak, extra-tropical cyclone off the coast of South Carolina.  But soon it ran into an arctic cold front moving across the Appalachians.  When it combined with unusually strong high pressure over central Canada and very cold air, the mix became a kind of nightmare perfect storm.  To top it off, the blizzard was essentially pinned in over New England for 36 hours, reigning snow down on the region as it could not escape into the Atlantic Ocean.

 

 

Naw, just an overzealous nor'easter.

Josh is gonna get mad you made me go ice kitty on this thread.  The Cliff Notes of the 21st Century, Wikipedia.

 

Petrobras buoy now at 1011.  No idea if it is rigorously calibrated...

 

 

Warm seclusion[edit source | editbeta]

A warm seclusion is the mature phase of the extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This was conceptualized after the ERICA field experiment of the late 1980s, which produced observations of intense marine cyclones that indicated an anomalously warm low-level thermal structure, secluded (or surrounded) by a bent-back warm front and a coincident chevron-shaped band of intense surface winds.^[28] The Norwegian Cyclone Model, as developed by the Bergen School of Meteorology, largely observed cyclones at the tail end of their lifecycle and used the term occlusion to identify the decaying stages.^[29]

Warm seclusions may have cloud-free, eye-like features at their center (reminiscent of tropical cyclones), significant pressure falls, hurricane force winds, and moderate to strong convection. The most intense warm seclusions often attain pressures less than 950 millibars (28.05 inHg) with a definitive lower to mid-level warm core structure.^[28] A warm seclusion, the result of a baroclinic lifecycle, occurs at latitudes well poleward of the tropics.

As latent heat flux releases are important for their development and intensification, most warm seclusion events occur over the oceans; they may impact coastal nations with hurricane force winds and torrential rain.^[27][30] Climatologically, the Northern Hemisphere sees warm seclusions during the cold season months, while the Southern Hemisphere may see a strong cyclone event such as this during all times of the year.

 

[phil882]

The GOM system is getting better organized... When convection redeveloped over the mid-level vort that was evident last night, there was going to be some probability it would start to extend down to the surface. That appears to be happening currently.  

 

 

It is worth mentioning none of the guidance (including the higher resolution HRRR and ARW/NMM) do much with the disturbance, and most have it shearing out in about the same location in the next 24 hours as a deep trough shifts into the southeastern US.

[Ed Lizard]

Now 20% with slow development possible.  Certainly looking better organized in visible imagery and on radar.

 

 

CIMSS has a stronger 850 mb satellite analyzed vorticity, and it is almost perfectly situated per CIMSS under an anti-cyclone with 30 units ( I don't know what the units are, but 30 is a lot of them) of 150-300 mb divergence.

 

Fairly close to BVE, but I'd expect low level ridging over Missouri/Illinois to steer it almost due West, before West-NorthWest, so that the with the shape of the coastline it temporarily increases distance from the Lousiana coastline and then probably stays barely 'feet wet' passing St. Mary and Assumption Parish.  Hard to guess when track and coastline almost parallel, but I've flown from Intracoastal City before. Gets past there, coast bends back North a bit until near Cameron.

 

Sadly, it is already near the latitude of IAH, so the main core of whatever landfalls will almost certainly be East of my lawn, putting my yard on the drier West side.  Already have Northeast mean flow (light and variable surface) judging from spotty radar echoes (and LCH has dried out almost 0.2 inches in 12 hours between last two balloons with ENE to NE winds below 500 mb).  It might keep tracking WNW as a weak system and put my lawn on its happier side after it passes North of here early next week.

 

I think it'd have an excellent chance of becoming a TD if a little farther from land.

 

 

Yes, I realize hoping for a TD and disucssing Northeast storms isn't what everyone was hoping for two thirds through August.

[Srain]

Slidell radar suggests a slow westward motion. Jack Beven is at the forecast desk and a Baton Rogue native, so rest assured he is watching this disturbance closely. The meso models have been too quick to move this feature W bound all week. The trough or whatever it becomes should move inland along the Upper Texas Coast on Sunday.

[thewxmann]

FWIW, ECMWF seems to want to do something with a set of new African waves around the turn of the month. This is probably the most robust thing it's shown in the ATL in awhile. This also seems to jive with the favorable CCKW and MJO signals moving forward.

[wxmeddler]

The GOM system is getting better organized... When convection redeveloped over the mid-level vort that was evident last night, there was going to be some probability it would start to extend down to the surface. That appears to be happening currently. It is worth mentioning none of the guidance (including the higher resolution HRRR and ARW/NMM) do much with the disturbance, and most have it shearing out in about the same location in the next 24 hours as a deep trough shifts into the southeastern US.

 

Looking at the oil rig obs down in the gulf, the surface wave trough is evident but it's not closed yet and is about 70 miles east of the mid-level center.

[Ed Lizard]

1010 mb now at Petrobras buoy.  About 2 mb drop in 3 hours.  Don't know if that is recently calibrated, but the graphical trend from the NDBC site, it is dropping and beyond just normal diurnal affects.  Buoy is West of convection and apparent center(s).  The radar center looks even closer to BVE than it did a couple of hours ago, this may scrape the coast for a while.  For a very weak system, being half over fairly flat and swampy terrain may not kill it completely, but I don't see how it gets beyond a TD at best at this point.  I still have my hopes for a 2008 Edouard situation.  I have to assume it'll want to move nearly due West in the short term based on model analyzed current 850 mb and 700 mb heights, but the radar center has gained a bit of latitude best I can tell.  There may be a broader turning Southwest of it if I stare at high res ADD visible loops long enough.  Just checked Wiki on Edoaurd, the lemon is probably too far North to bring that kind of perfection to my backyard.

 

 

May be the MJO coming, the entire Gulf area, offshore, near shore and onshore looking more convectively active than in a while.  The wave that probably becomes a hurricane in the East Pac in a few days is looking good as it approaches Central America.  I *think* the Gulf blob is separate from Western Caribbean wave, they are of similar latitude.

[wxmeddler]

May be the MJO coming, the entire Gulf area, offshore, near shore and onshore looking more convectively active than in a while.  The wave that probably becomes a hurricane in the East Pac in a few days is looking good as it approaches Central America.  I *think* the Gulf blob is separate from Western Caribbean wave, they are of similar latitude.

Both the CCKW and MJO is moving into the W Gulf right now. Like clockwork.

[Ed Lizard]

Second Euro run in a row where the tail of a surface front associated with a impressive Summer time extra-tropical storm that moves through New England WEdnesday/Thursday makes some noises about trying to do something near Florida for Labor Day Weekend.

 

This will be in the mid level weakness created by the associated tail end of the mid-latitude trough, per Euro, and with a little luck, could sit near the Gulf Stream a day or three.

 

[Amped]

Second Euro run in a row where the tail of a surface front associated with a impressive Summer time extra-tropical storm that moves through New England WEdnesday/Thursday makes some noises about trying to do something near Florida for Labor Day Weekend.

 

This will be in the mid level weakness created by the associated tail end of the mid-latitude trough, per Euro, and with a little luck, could sit near the Gulf Stream a day or three.

 

 

 

Would be around 6-10 days after that where a landfall might occur. Agrees with the Albany site showing increased probability of a TC near the EC around 9/10 and also the peak of the season. Still 2.5 weeks away though, I'm only excited because there's nothing else to be excited about.

[Srain]

[mupawxnut]

Question: When 1938 made landfall, was it a fully warm-core system or was it already undergoing extratropical transition (which, as we know, does NOT necessarily mean the winds are weakening)?

[HurricaneJosh]

Question: When 1938 made landfall, was it a fully warm-core system or was it already undergoing extratropical transition (which, as we know, does NOT necessarily mean the winds are weakening)?

 

It was transitioning-- anything at that latitude along the East Coast is-- but it was still a hurricane with a core.  The highest winds were still fairly concentrated around the center--  the RMW (radius of max winds) was ~40 nmi, as compared with over 100 nmi for Sandy-- and it had an eyewall and eye.

[mupawxnut]

It was transitioning-- anything at that latitude along the East Coast is-- but it was still a hurricane with a core. The highest winds were still fairly concentrated around the center-- the RMW (radius of max winds) was ~40 nmi, as compared with over 100 nmi for Sandy-- and it had an eyewall and eye.

What were conditions like on the western side of the storm?

[DaculaWeather]

Wilma 2005 went from Cat 1 (75 kt) to Cat 5 (150 kt) in less than 12 hr.

• Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70 mph to 155 mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005
• Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005
• Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19
• Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007
• Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007

[HurricaneJosh]

What were conditions like on the western side of the storm?

 

I don't have the exact data on me, but very stormy-- probably strong-TS or Cat-1 conditions.  The NJ coast and NYC got thrashed pretty good-- but of course nothing like C and E Long Island, which got really raked hard.

[wxmx]

Some more borecasting. It appears that the TW in the NW Caribbean has pulled a bit farther north than forecasted, not sure if ridging was a bit weaker due to the N GoM disturbance or not, but now the 18z GFS emerges the low level energy into the BoC and tries to get something going while moving WNW to south of Tampico. There will be little time over water being that far south, so I wouldn't expect much from it.

 

Sorry, times are rough.

[Ed Lizard]

Some more borecasting. It appears that the TW in the NW Caribbean has pulled a bit farther north than forecasted, not sure if ridging was a bit weaker due to the N GoM disturbance or not, but now the 18z GFS emerges the low level energy into the BoC and tries to get something going while moving WNW to south of Tampico. There will be little time over water being that far south, so I wouldn't expect much from it.

 

Sorry, times are rough.

 

They spit the 20% lemon into 2 10% lemons.

[Snow_Miser]

 

Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007

 

I'm pretty sure that this was Humberto of the same year, not Lorenzo.

[wxmx]

No, it was Lorenzo indeed. 2007 had many cases of RI

[AutoPenalti]

[icebreaker5221]

They spit the 20% lemon into 2 10% lemons.

This is the law of the "conservation of lemons".

[LithiaWx]

21 years ago at this moment Hurricane Andrew was about to ravage south Florida.

[Yeoman]

High time for Dr Grays annual revision down. I could throw darts to get a better hurricane prediction each year

[GaWx]

Folks,

Like clockwork MJOwise, the 0Z Euro suggests potential trouble near the end of the run with a TC moving westerly near 19N, 55W, with no indication of an imminent recurve. This is while the MJO is forecasted by the Euro to be the the most potent near peak season phase 1 since 1979, when David and Frederic were born. The end of the boring period may be getting close.