Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

Yeah, but '38 ended up missing most of them. Oh no, Providence!

 

You better hush up.  

[thewxmann]

What's HM been up to lately? I remember when tornado season looked dead he correctly forecasted it to come back to life with a bang. I wonder what he has to say about this dead-looking hurricane sesson.

[free_man]

The fun part about that is that although we likely won't see a repeat of those in particular, there are many other 250-500 year events that we will get to see...you just have to remember that.

True.  1938 was very unique apparently, but the outcome wasn't the worst hurricane in history. 1635 redux would be worse than 1938 for many areas.  That'd be the ultimate SNE-centric weenie redux.

[HurricaneJosh]

True.  1938 was very unique apparently, but the outcome wasn't the worst hurricane in history. 1635 redux would be worse than 1938 for many areas.  That'd be the ultimate SNE-centric weenie redux.

 

Actually, 1938 is a much-worse track.  It was heading due N and hit the underbelly of Long Island, exposing much more of the Island (which is now very densely populated) and SNE to the powerful right side.  1635 was moving sharply NE, only grazing E Long Island and E SNE-- with much less of the population to the right of the center.  The one exception is that perhaps Boston Metro would get clobbered a little worse with a 1635 track.

[free_man]

Actually, 1938 is a much-worse track.  It was heading due N and hit the underbelly of Long Island, exposing much more of the Island (which is now very densely populated) and SNE to the powerful right side.  1635 was moving sharply NE, only grazing E Long Island and E SNE-- with much less of the population to the right of the center.  The one exception is that perhaps Boston Metro would get clobbered a little worse with a 1635 track.

I don't know, hard to say.  Probably more costly with the '38 track, but strength-wise 1635 probably wins.  

 

Catastrophe either way and there have been two of them in less than 400 years.

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't know, hard to say.  Probably more costly with the '38 track, but strength-wise 1635 probably wins.  

 

Catastrophe either way and there have been two of them in less than 400 years.

 

The 1635 'cane may have been a couple of millibars deeper, but based on what we know, the difference was not appreciable.  I think they were both probably the max intensity that can be expected in this region.

[Floydbuster]

Josh, your INBOX is full, fyi.

 

 

Don't be so negative about Hurricane Season 2013. I still think we'll see hurricanes, obviously. Probably 6-8 of them.

Remember in 2000? One day we had Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4) turning east of Bermuda, Hurricane Joyce (Cat 1) forecast to be a dangerous Caribbean cruiser, and Hurricane Keith (Cat 4) coiled up against Belize. Of course, Joyce fizzled, but all of that activity (I was 12 at the time...) was very exciting.

The dates of that activity were September 28th-October 2nd of 2000.  That would be nearly 40 days from today.

I will say though, I have little faith in "violent" hurricane landfalls (Charley, Andrew) in the U.S. after September 18th. Once they go to the Carolinas it's 80-95 kt cattails in the green foam. Compared to tiny violent 130 kt coconuts blowing/2x4 through palm tree microcanes, I know they aren't your niche.

Mike

[Sunny and Warm]

Josh, your INBOX is full, fyi.

 

 

Don't be so negative about Hurricane Season 2013. I still think we'll see hurricanes, obviously. Probably 6-8 of them.

Remember in 2000? One day we had Hurricane Isaac (Cat 4) turning east of Bermuda, Hurricane Joyce (Cat 1) forecast to be a dangerous Caribbean cruiser, and Hurricane Keith (Cat 4) coiled up against Belize. Of course, Joyce fizzled, but all of that activity (I was 12 at the time...) was very exciting.

The dates of that activity were September 28th-October 2nd of 2000.  That would be nearly 40 days from today.

I will say though, I have little faith in "violent" hurricane landfalls (Charley, Andrew) in the U.S. after September 18th. Once they go to the Carolinas it's 80-95 kt cattails in the green foam. Compared to tiny violent 130 kt coconuts blowing/2x4 through palm tree microcanes, I know they aren't your niche.

Mike

Hugo

[CoastalWx]

What's HM been up to lately? I remember when tornado season looked dead he correctly forecasted it to come back to life with a bang. I wonder what he has to say about this dead-looking hurricane sesson.

 

Well climo alone says it will perk up and it likely will. However, there is still some work that needs to be done and better CCKW and/or MJO alignment.

[bluewave]

Most of the convection should be focused over the EPAC for the rest of this month.

The big question for Early September is if we will make it to phase 2 before moving

back to COD?

 

[Drz1111]

What!?!? That hurricane hit one of the most populated areas in the US, there's more to the east coast than NYC.

Well, yes . . . . and no. Sure, its way more populated than King Ranch. But what made Sandy extraordinary was not intensity, it was landfall location, timing, and direction. NY harbor is one of the few places in the whole Western Hemisphere with good, multi century records, so we know that Sandy is almost certainly a multi-centry return rate storm because nothing in the record matches it (IIRC, it's way the hell out on the tail from all other events).

NYC is probably, what, the second most densely populated tropical-vulnerable coastal area in the world after Tokyo? Perhaps somewhere in the Bay of Bengal I'm not thinking of is up there too. So you either have 1938 - a stronger storm, bringing its wind core over about a million people in LI and RI, or you have Sandy, dumping a broad area of 75-85mph gusts and the highest tides in 400 years over 10+ million folks. For pure meteorological masterbation, 1938 wins every time, but for impact I think, even if 38 happened today it wouldn't have bupkis on Sandy.

[Ed Lizard]

I hope Bendy Mod forgives me, since there is no real sign of anything in August, beyond lunar cycles and which once a lifetime Northeast tropical system was more exciting or rare.

 

At least I'm not posting the NAM or NavGem.  (NavGem has a Tampico storm early next week, no model support)  I remember the MJO talk from late July of a switch being thrown mid-August, but after a 1/0/0 month, at best 2/0/0, by definition, September almost can't be duller.  And climo is on our side.

 

Anyway

 

Long shot optimism for local SETX/Gulf excitement, or at least enhancement to rain...

No model support, but 500 mb low in Eastern Gulf has developed an 850 mb vorticity reflection, and SPC surface mesoanalysis shows a hint of lowering pressure.

I almost feel embarrassed to post this, but things are so boring as far as tropics go, plus this can't hurt our rain chances weekend/earl week, I give you the Gulf of Mexico satellite showing storms associated with a 500 mb low and very weak surface reflection.

 

Main negative if 10-20 knots Westerly/Northwesterly shear.

 

 

[Srain]

Why would you disregard the best piece of model guidance we currently have? I'm not saying we can't get something to form down there (though I think it would tend to stay weak and disorganized), but not having Euro support should always give one pause.

 

 

I'm talking more seasonal versus operational, Adam. There was a change via the seasonal modeling to that of lower pressures across the MDR and Caribbean compared to what we had seen prior via the Euro Seasonal guidance which is more in line with the other reliable long range guidance.

 

 

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying, Steve

 The new seasonal Eurosip is out publically suggesting those lower pressures I mention a couple of weeks ago. Also the Euro 51 member Ensembles are very suggestive a favorable pattern will develop across the NATL Basin. My hunch is the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf will be the areas to watch for potential TC genesis during the next 10-15 days. Think 'Carla Cradle'.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

I wasn't even a gleam in my Daddy's eye for Carla, but has there been a red meat Carla Cradle storm for Texas since Carla?  (Cuba had a Cat 3 Carla Cradle storm last year, obviously).

 

 

Speaking of what if it happened today, 1938, identical storm and path, shifted 50 or 70 miles West from the Hamptons to JFK airport.  Oh, trivia, my sister, who has sources, the old house on the corner of Curlew and Leewater in Nassau Shores in Massapequa was repaired post-Sandy and is on the market for about half a million.  Half a million in the Houston suburbs would get about double the square feet.  Plus one probably can't grow palm trees, orange trees, avocados and banana plants (mild Winter, they are fruiting this year) in Massapequa.

 

Cat 3 in Eastern Queens.  I have seen the old SLOSH based surge map that shows surge getting to the and even past Sunrise Highway and the LIRR tracks in Massapequa.

[BrianLaverty]

Well, yes . . . . and no. Sure, its way more populated than King Ranch. But what made Sandy extraordinary was not intensity, it was landfall location, timing, and direction. NY harbor is one of the few places in the whole Western Hemisphere with good, multi century records, so we know that Sandy is almost certainly a multi-centry return rate storm because nothing in the record matches it (IIRC, it's way the hell out on the tail from all other events).

NYC is probably, what, the second most densely populated tropical-vulnerable coastal area in the world after Tokyo? Perhaps somewhere in the Bay of Bengal I'm not thinking of is up there too. So you either have 1938 - a stronger storm, bringing its wind core over about a million people in LI and RI, or you have Sandy, dumping a broad area of 75-85mph gusts and the highest tides in 400 years over 10+ million folks. For pure meteorological masterbation, 1938 wins every time, but for impact I think, even if 38 happened today it wouldn't have bupkis on Sandy.

 

Really?

 

Wow.

 

I take it that you haven't read the countless books on 1938.  The damage was unreal hundreds of miles from the coast.

 

If 1938 happened now, people would be out of power in the northeast for potentially months.  Irene was a weak tropical storm around here, and it wiped out power for a couple weeks for many people in Rhode Island.  The damage if 1938 came again, would be unthinkable in Rhode Island/Mass.

[Sunny and Warm]

What are the time stamps on the two MJO charts posted by Bluewave and Srain?  They show completely different outcomes, and I'm interested in which one is more recent. 

[bluewave]

What are the time stamps on the two MJO charts posted by Bluewave and Srain?  They show completely different outcomes, and I'm interested in which one is more recent. 

 

There are several versions available for the ECMWF. The one that I posted is similar to the UK ens  and bias corrected GEFS.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

[Sunny and Warm]

Really?

 

Wow.

 

I take it that you haven't read the countless books on 1938.  The damage was unreal hundreds of miles from the coast.

 

If 1938 happened now, people would be out of power in the northeast for potentially months.  Irene was a weak tropical storm around here, and it wiped out power for a couple weeks for many people in Rhode Island.  The damage if 1938 came again, would be unthinkable in Rhode Island/Mass.

For me, damage is a non discussion point when looking at meteorological return rates.  I certainly understand the viewpoint of the '38 champions, but the window of opportunity to create a Sandy is much less than that of a 1938.  One doesn't get full latitude troughs that strong and that far south very often in a 100 year period even in late October.  If I recall, it was a -5SD event.  Even at that, you'd be hard pressed to get one outside late October/November and during tropical season.  Then, you need a late season hurricane passing by and a blocking high to its NE in order for said hurricane to become captured by the trough to its west at such a low latitude and be further enhanced baroclinically while thrown into the coast at such a perpendicular angle. 

 

The difference to me is that a cat 5 can occur at any time from July-Oct, and has a much higher frequency of occurrence than the mid latitude trough we saw last year.  Granted, 1938 hit a meteorological sweet spot of rare events itself, but to me, it all starts with the initial conditions.  A cat 5 can occur for a three month period.  A -5SD trough that far south can only occur during a much narrower window during tropical season.

[Sunny and Warm]

There are several versions available for the ECMWF. The one that I posted is similar to the UK ens  and bias corrected GEFS. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for

what?!?  How can there be multiple versions of the same model?

[icebreaker5221]

what?!?  How can there be multiple versions of the same model?

 

It's the same model (ECMWF ensemble).  It's just that in the one Srain posted, the RMM index is calculated against actual climatology, while in the one Bluewave posted the RMM index is calculated against the model's climatology.  The one Bluewave posted is supposed to be bias corrected and should generally verify better, but there are exceptions. 

[Ed Lizard]

Per model that can't be named, Gulf IR loop posted as attachment previous forum page, could warrant a lemon tomorrow or Saturday, and perhaps even a tasked flight on Saturday that would be cancelled around 1300Z Sunday morning.  It is working its way down slowly from the midlevels, and SPC mesoanalysis is lowering pressures slightly in the area West of TPA.  Nothing radical, 1016 mb.

 

Can see it on TPW loop.  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

 

Glass quarter on the lemon (would be higher but shear isn't optimum), glass eight on a tasked and cancelled recon.

 

You can see both the WNW to NW shear (which is lighter as it drifts West) and decent PW on TPA sounding

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Really?

 

Wow.

 

I take it that you haven't read the countless books on 1938.  The damage was unreal hundreds of miles from the coast.

 

If 1938 happened now, people would be out of power in the northeast for potentially months.  Irene was a weak tropical storm around here, and it wiped out power for a couple weeks for many people in Rhode Island.  The damage if 1938 came again, would be unthinkable in Rhode Island/Mass.

 

NYC was already developed in 38 and damage was minimal so that gives case for Sandy having more damage overall even if 38 was today. The extremly fast movement acted to increase winds on the eastern side of the storm but lower them on the western side. Even today populations are waaaaay higher on the western side. Even on Long Island only eastern thrid of the island was exposed to the strongest winds. The house I live in currently in Wantagh (Eastern Nassua) was built ironically in 1937. Durning Sandy the surge was in the street in front of our house one block south of Merrick Road but not on the lawn or in the house. There was an old timmer when I was growing up in the 80's that had been living on the block since the houses were built in 37 when Gloria threatned to bring a 12 foot surge (the house is at 9 feet) the old timmer said we had nothing to worry about because there had never been flooding on the block including 38, 44 and Donna. So even in Central LI Sandy was worse then 38 surge wise.

[IsentropicLift]

NYC was already developed in 38 and damage was minimal so that gives case for Sandy having more damage overall even if 38 was today. The extremly fast movement acted to increase winds on the eastern side of the storm but lower them on the western side. Even today populations are waaaaay higher on the western side. Even on Long Island only eastern thrid of the island was exposed to the strongest winds. The house I live in currently in Wantagh (Eastern Nassua) was built ironically in 1937. Durning Sandy the surge was in the street in front of our house one block south of Merrick Road but not on the lawn or in the house. There was an old timmer when I was growing up in the 80's that had been living on the block since the houses were built in 37 when Gloria threatned to bring a 12 foot surge (the house is at 9 feet) the old timmer said we had nothing to worry about because there had never been flooding on the block including 38, 44 and Donna. So even in Central LI Sandy was worse then 38 surge wise.

To be fair NYC was developed in 38 but not the extent that it is today regarding building structures. Imagine Cat 3 winds ripping through the NYC blocks and accelerating as they are forced between all of the sky scrapers of today. Then think of how much stronger the winds would be at the top of those buildings. You would likely have numerous window blowouts and a deadly debree storm would ensue. Also how would bridges like the Brooklyn and GWB stand up to those types of gusts? Let's not forget the surrounding areas of NJ, NY, CT and Long Island are much more populated today than they were back in 38. The worst case scenario for the greater NYC area would be a 38 intensity system with a Sandy Hook, NJ landfall.

 

While Sandy brought widespread Cat 2 storm surge to parts of the NJ and NY area and isolated surge in the Cat 3 range, the size of the storm and angle of approach had much to do with it, along with the fact that the core of strongest winds were displaced well to the NNE of the center at landfall.

[bobbutts]

'38 or maybe more generally, hurricane history, should have it's own subforum.

[DaculaWeather]

Here's what I have for MJO: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php

[Sunny and Warm]

It's the same model (ECMWF ensemble).  It's just that in the one Srain posted, the RMM index is calculated against actual climatology, while in the one Bluewave posted the RMM index is calculated against the model's climatology.  The one Bluewave posted is supposed to be bias corrected and should generally verify better, but there are exceptions. 

Thank you!!

[Sunny and Warm]

 

While Sandy brought widespread Cat 2 storm surge to parts of the NJ and NY area and isolated surge in the Cat 3 range, the size of the storm and angle of approach had much to do with it, along with the fact that the core of strongest winds were displaced well to the NNE of the center at landfall.

If the last ten years has taught us anything it is that wind category, while associated with surge, may not be the biggest component of surge.

[free_man]

The 1635 'cane may have been a couple of millibars deeper, but based on what we know, the difference was not appreciable.  I think they were both probably the max intensity that can be expected in this region.

Yeah that's what I said... they were both catastrophic and quite similar.  1635 probably was a couple ticks lower in pressure and certainly had the higher surge.  Landsea estimated it met or exceeded Hugo's max surge, which is the highest ever recorded on the EC.  

[Ed Lizard]

Per model that can't be named, Gulf IR loop posted as attachment previous forum page, could warrant a lemon tomorrow or Saturday, and perhaps even a tasked flight on Saturday that would be cancelled around 1300Z Sunday morning.  It is working its way down slowly from the midlevels, and SPC mesoanalysis is lowering pressures slightly in the area West of TPA.  Nothing radical, 1016 mb.

 

Can see it on TPW loop.  http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

 

Glass quarter on the lemon (would be higher but shear isn't optimum), glass eight on a tasked and cancelled recon.

 

You can see both the WNW to NW shear (which is lighter as it drifts West) and decent PW on TPA sounding

 

 

 

Went glass quarter optimistic lemon by Saturday on KHOU-TV11 (KHOU has been standing for Houston for 60 years) local forum, and my natural silver lining optimism has been rewarded with a minimal lemon!

 

 

 

       

[phil882]

Yea I'm not sure we are going to see any TCs before the end of the august given this current pattern (TUTT dominated). Even if a TC were to develop, its highly unlikely anything that develops in the MDR would pose a threat to the US due to the expected pattern configuration at day 5, which a powerful ridge over the central US with a broad trough stretching across most of the northwest Atlantic. 

 

It seems we are currently suffering from FCS (Field Campaign Syndrome) in which whenever you have a meteorological field campaign in progress (In this case HS3 or the Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel), it tends to result in the suppressed phenomena you are looking for. HS3 had the unfortunate circumstance of flying through only one TC (Nadine) last year as the rest of the Atlantic Basin shut down. We have a longer period this year, but thus far the first week (and possibly week two) look rather boring. 

 

Things should pick up starting the first of Sept. as the MJO rounds into the western hemisphere... its just been taking its sweet old time getting here.