Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Concerning 92L. The RPM with it's last three runs ending at 08/16 0z, the 08/16 0z Nam and the 15/12z Ukmet are somewhat similar with the system moving close to Brownsville TX. Of the three the only one showing a named storm IMO is the RPM, but the other two are close. The GFS came in and at first glance it looks like it stays the course with it's previous runs. At this time I would discount the Ukmet, RPM and Nam, but not entirely if that makes sense. Sat imagery looks like a complete mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 0Z GFS and 18Z GFDL of a very weak surface feature with almost all the rain Northeast of the track into South Texas, besides being somewhat consistent with each other, seems as reasonable as anything else. The NAM weak tropical depression with the promise of abundant rains, is, of course, too good to be true. Klotzbach is assuming a significant system forms in the East Atlantic as hinted by some models. Not immediately sure beyond better MJO state forecast he assumes it wlll be a big ACE storm. Euro heights go frm looking potentially favorable for Florida/East Gulf and Southeast in 8 days, when there probably won't be anything to take advantage, ot more of a Caribbean cruiser pattern by day 10, when maybe something could take advantage. Side note, impressive how sharp the Euro ensemble means are, and how well they usually agree with op, compared to lower amplitude GEFS ensemble means that don't match the op GFS as well. Don't know if that is resolution, or they have confidence in the initialization and the initial conditions perturbations are smaller scale than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Concerning 92L. The RPM with it's last three runs ending at 08/16 0z, the 08/16 0z Nam and the 15/12z Ukmet are somewhat similar with the system moving close to Brownsville TX. Of the three the only one showing a named storm IMO is the RPM, but the other two are close. The GFS came in and at first glance it looks like it stays the course with it's previous runs. At this time I would discount the Ukmet, RPM and Nam, but not entirely if that makes sense. Sat imagery looks like a complete mess. I'd lean towards a weak wave, without much convection in the low level steering towards Texas/Mexico, with all the moisture sheared well North and East. GFDL closes an isobar with its border landfall, but with only isolated showers around it, Look below, you can see the wave axis in the 850 mb winds, but the moisture is sheared off. 700 mb heights and RH, show something similar. 18Z GFDL might almost be suggesting a naked swirl landfalling on the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Ed...not sure what I think about this. 850MB and 500 mb vorticity seem to be co-located, I didn't save these images (what's the point?) shear: quite low at around 10knts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Also a hotlink, WV imagery would appear to show an upper low that isn't obvious on the CIMSS shear product. Would better explain convection NE of the Yucatan moving away. Edit- bed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 ^1565^ Malicane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Also a hotlink, WV imagery would appear to show an upper low that isn't obvious on the CIMSS shear product. Would better explain convection NE of the Yucatan moving away. Edit- bed time ok good night, but I also see a cyclonic turning just nw of the slot (Yucatan straights) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 OK the GEM has it back. Most guidance I have seen shows some development.... Here is the latest GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Windshield wiping models...0z Ukie is TX/LA border, probably named....0z Euro is just south of Tampico, weak. 0z GFDL is similar to the CMC wrt track...but a lot weaker. Overall models are now focusing on the W GoM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 And last, but not least, the 0z HWRF... with runs like this, it feels like the old HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Omg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Short infrared imagery shows what would be a naked LLC around 21N 91W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Short infrared imagery shows what would be a naked LLC around 21N 91W. CIMSS shows it with surface divergence and upper convergence, it could stay naked all day. Perhaps this is what the 18Z GFDL closed low with only isolated showers was predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Next AEW to watch is just developing over the Darfur Mountains... 8/21-8/23 looks like the time frame where this wave will push off West Africa.. There's an intriguing CCKW train with the convectively suppressed phase about to push across the MDR over the next few days.. But following this is another active phase, and I could see this active phase superimposing with the AEW over the eastern MDR around 8/21-8/23 so could be something worth monitoring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 It's not necessary for me to echo the thoughts of everyone else here that the Tropics are about to pick up (heck, simple climo can get the point across too). But I wanted to quickly point out some interesting notes in terms of global circulation: 1. The -IOSD has really altered the Indian Ocean, shifting the "Mascarene High" to 55-60°E. In conjunction with the general IOD state that came on this warm season, the warm pool across the West Pacific has tightened up. Deep westerly low-level flow across the IO is delivering the warmer SST to Australia and tightening up the warm pool. The May-Aug monsoon season was therefore pretty intense, diabatically-speaking and in terms of general circulation. The monsoonal trough and subsequent circulations downstream were all heightened. 2. At one point mid-summer, the HC edge reached 50-60N across the northern Pacific (on shorter time scales, this happened across most of the NH). This month we have seen the high come back southward and closer to reality in NE PAC with possibly an early arrival the northern Pacific storm season. The Atlantic cell, OTOH, did move poleward for a time; but, it too will move back southward. 3. A considerable -AAO has just occurred, possibly at record lows. It will also help to compact the HC network across the barotropic latitudes. It will be interesting to see how the IO gets altered, if at all. We may mimick a "La Niña-like" tropical season where things were pretty quiet and then bam.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Man, Erin might be the saddest excuse of a tropical storm i've ever seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I just hope when the canx today's missions, NHC will be nice enough with the TPOD not to make a bunch of USAF reservists have to stay home and sober because they are scheduled for misisons that will be cancelled tomorrow. I had such high hopes a week ago... Edit to add- No painting Biloxi red tonight even though everybody knows they won't fly tomorrow. NOUS42 KNHC 161420REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1015 AM EDT FRI 16 AUGUST 2013SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2013 TCPOD NUMBER.....13-076I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA - GULF OF MEXICO FIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70 A. 17/1800Z A. 18/1200Z,1800Z B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE C. 17/1545Z C. 18/0945Z D. 23.0N 93.0W D. 24.5N 94.5W E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2200Z E. 18/1130Z TO 18/1800Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON TCPOD 13-075 CANCELLED BY NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Man, Erin might be the saddest excuse of a tropical storm i've ever seen... Too much SAL in the area. Just killed all the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I just hope when the canx today's missions, NHC will be nice enough with the TPOD not to make a bunch of USAF reservists have to stay home and sober because they are scheduled for misisons that will be cancelled tomorrow. I had such high hopes a week ago... Don't get down Ed, hope is just a bit of convection away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 There's an intriguing CCKW train with the convectively suppressed phase about to push across the MDR over the next few days.. But following this is another active phase, and I could see this active phase superimposing with the AEW over the eastern MDR around 8/21-8/23 so could be something worth monitoring...LOL, did you read my client report this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Too much SAL in the area. Just killed all the convection. Everything has really been struggling over the Tropical Atlantic the last two years. There has only been one storm that has reached hurricane strength there since 2011. We just need a wave to be strong enough to survive the trip through the region and develop further to the west. 2012 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Is it just me, or is 92L looking increasingly like a subtropical cyclone on satellite? Large, increasingly curved band of convection well NE of the center, with a defined low level circ pretty well collocated with an upper level cold core low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 LOL, did you read my client report this morning? haha was it similar? :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 haha was it similar? :-Pless nerdy, but yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Is it just me, or is 92L looking increasingly like a subtropical cyclone on satellite? Large, increasingly curved band of convection well NE of the center, with a defined low level circ pretty well collocated with an upper level cold core low? I think 92L just recently developed a decent LLC as it exited the Yucatan. The upper low has taken over as the focus of the convection that should continue to move north leaving the LLC down in the SW Gulf...from there, we'll have to see if 92L can develop some convection of its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Op Euro sees a potential escape route for a wanna-be fish just before the islands August 25th-26th, but otherwise, op and ensemble Euro would seem to have potential for MDR long trackers into Caribbean or SE United States. Substantial difference between 0Z and 6Z at hour 240 in 500 mb heights, 0Z is like Euro, 6Z has substantial troughiness over East Coast and suggestion of fish. 0Z and 6Z 500 mb heights mostly show a fishy pattern at 10 days, but have an abundance of TCs reflected in the Eastern Atlantic in the 500 mb spaghetti. GEFS don't get much better looking out at 300 and 360 hours as far as troughiness over the East Coast. A couple with the troughs far enough West into the Ohio/Mississippi the East Coast could still get lucky. But most are closer to the East Coast and positively tilted. Seems like MV and the MJO/CCKW crew are building it, now, the question, will they come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 I think 92L just recently developed a decent LLC as it exited the Yucatan. The upper low has taken over as the focus of the convection that should continue to move north leaving the LLC down in the SW Gulf...from there, we'll have to see if 92L can develop some convection of its own. How can 92L develop on its own with an upper level low so close? More likely is that the upper low starts taking on more tropical characteristics ala a subtropical. That takes time and I'm not sure it gets there before "landfall". May be close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 How can 92L develop on its own with an upper level low so close? More likely is that the upper low starts taking on more tropical characteristics ala a subtropical. That takes time and I'm not sure it gets there before "landfall". May be close though. Developing trough and cutoff over the mid-south will pull the upper low into the Southeast while leaving the LLC down in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Next AEW to watch is just developing over the Darfur Mountains... 8/21-8/23 looks like the time frame where this wave will push off West Africa.. There's an intriguing CCKW train with the convectively suppressed phase about to push across the MDR over the next few days.. But following this is another active phase, and I could see this active phase superimposing with the AEW over the eastern MDR around 8/21-8/23 so could be something worth monitoring... LOL, did you read my client report this morning? I'm rooting heavily for the ECMWF Seasonal Prediction Ensemble to give the Atlantic the kick in the can it needs to get out of this stagnant pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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