Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

I think I've forgotten what a legit Atlantic TC looks like. 

 

Dude... Seriously.  

 

I was talking with Scott (Strat747) tonight, and we're just kind of speechless as we look back at the post-2005 era for the USA and the post-2008 era for the whole basin.  It's just one big wtf at this point.

 

Even systems that eventually become kind of cool-- like Baby Ernie last year-- seem to have so much f*cking trouble getting it going.  Nothing seems to come easy anymore.

[phil882]

That small upper level low is certainly not doing 92L any wonders:

 

As expected the outflow pattern has become distorted as the mid-level vorticity splits around this upper level feature. The GFS and ECMWF show one piece of vorticity swinging northward into the GOM while the other stronger piece of energy now being left behind as it drifts over the Yucatan today.

 

[phil882]

Dude... Seriously.  

 

I was talking with Scott (Strat747) tonight, and we're just kind of speechless as we look back at the post-2005 era for the USA and the post-2008 era for the whole basin.  It's just one big wtf at this point.

 

Even systems that eventually become kind of cool-- like Baby Ernie last year-- seem to have so much f*cking trouble getting it going.  Nothing seems to come easy anymore.

 

I still think there is plenty of reasons to be optimistic... while TD5 and 92L may not live up to our lofty expectations, we are just beginning to move into a favorable inter-seasonal atmospheric state. Widespread low-level westerly anomalies from the MJO filtered wave spectra are likely to lead to another spike in TC activity before the end of the month. It might not be showing up well in the global modeling now, but the CFS has remained steadfast with this forthcoming evolution for the last month.

[phil882]

As if things weren't convoluted enough already... The GFS is now going back to the solution the ECMWF had 2 days ago, with the max low level vorticity in the Bay of Campeche. This is the southern split feature as the northern split has already moved well inland by this point.

 

[am19psu]

The cyclone trackers are not dependable right now with the complicated evolution, but just looking at the QPF fields from the GEFS and ECENS, more of the members favor the northern GoM solution vs. the western one.

[HurricaneJosh]

I still think there is plenty of reasons to be optimistic... while TD5 and 92L may not live up to our lofty expectations, we are just beginning to move into a favorable inter-seasonal atmospheric state. Widespread low-level westerly anomalies from the MJO filtered wave spectra are likely to lead to another spike in TC activity before the end of the month. It might not be showing up well in the global modeling now, but the CFS has remained steadfast with this forthcoming evolution for the last month.

 

 

OK, thanks, Phil.  

[NJwinter23]

My only debate with Erin right now is whether we should call it Dorian 2.0 or Chantal 3.0

 

alright it is a little early to write off anything, but yeah.

[am19psu]

My only debate with Erin right now is whether we should call it Dorian 2.0 or Chantal 2.0

I'm just calling it a waste of time

[phil882]

The cyclone trackers are not dependable right now with the complicated evolution, but just looking at the QPF fields from the GEFS and ECENS, more of the members favor the northern GoM solution vs. the western one.

 

I'm wondering now if its possible to get both the "northern" and "western" solutions due to the in-progress split of the vorticity field. As I see it, there are two regions developing, convection thats enhanced by the divergence just east of the small upper-level low, and convection pulsing with the original low-level vorticity source. 

 

 

The complicating factor is this pesky small upper-level low, which also has a decent reflection at 500 hPa, which is wrecking havoc to the steering currents. That's whats elongating the 500 hPa vorticity, with the northern portion of 92L interacting and likely phasing with the upper-level feature (which is then easily picked up by the digging longwave trough) while the second feature (the red circle with the deeper convection) manages to slip under a little while longer, making it into the GOM. 

[uncle W]

every year can't be like 1893 or 2005...I'm only interested in tropical storms that hit my area...Irene and Sandy the last two years have caused much heart-ache...Sandy was the latest hurricane to effect NYC...October 29th...The previous date was October 10th 1894...We could be in for another late season hit and I hope it doesn't hit my area...

[MarkSC]

On another topic, interesting piece in the SC papers today.  The Coastal Carolina University model forecasts a major hurricane for the East Coast this year. http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2013/08/13/3643214/coastal-carolina-university-researchers.html

[Amped]

Unless erin explodes, it doesn't look like the first hurricane will form before the 20th so 1999 will probably be dethrowned.

[bluewave]

Unless erin explodes, it doesn't look like the first hurricane will form before the 20th so 1999 will probably be dethrowned.

 

We just need to hold out until past the 22nd for the third latest spot during the recent active phase starting in 95.

 

Latest first hurricanes of season since 1995:

 

9-11-02

9-09-01

8-22-11

8-22-98

8-21-99

[Ed Lizard]

Just a quick look at 0Z and 6Z GEFS 1004 mb spaghetti, and NAEFS (Canadian and GEFS) means and spreads, the idea of the East Coast favored over the Gulf Coast seems reasonable, not all that much action until the very end of August and beginning of September (when the GEFS start looking quite interesting out towards the Cape Verdes) and not much at all in the Gulf.

 

Ensembles could always be missing something.  And all I see of Euro ensembles now is the low resolution display of the means on the ECMWF site.

 

I will say, those do provide optimism at least at 10 days of better than usual chances of an MDR storm getting close to North America.

 

[Ed Lizard]

As expected, all missions tasked for today cancelled.

 

Two WC-130Js are on standy to be cancelled tomorrow morning.

 

But they are getting the drone in position for the heart of the season.

 

3. REMARKS:
       A. ALL TASKING ON THIS SYSTEM DETAILED ON
          TCPOD 13-074 CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1300Z.
       B. NASA GLOBAL HAWK WILL TRANSIT FROM DRYDEN TO WALLOPS
          AT 16/0100Z.   

[icebreaker5221]

The SAL has definitely relaxed quite a bit since July (as should happen climatologically).  Conditions actually wouldn't be too bad if a system managed to stay south of 15N. 

 

However, it looks like Erin will not stay south of 15N, and will pursue and gobble up whatever nuggets of SAL she can find like Mrs Pac-Man. 

 

[Ed Lizard]

I know it is bad form mentioning the NAM, but its solution of 92L, too badly sheared to develop but a nice low to mid level wave approaching the entire Texas coast in 3 days, with the promise of enhanced rainfall beyond the 84 hour forecast period, would be awesome.

 

GFS solution of what comes off the Yucatan trying to develop, but being stretched apart and not raining IMBY not as happy.  GFS starts off the Yucatan looking halfway decent, but the 850 mb vort max is being stretched, and then reforms much closer to Louisiana rather quickly, relocating under the convection sheared off the original vort max.  Looking at the 4 panels, if 92L comes off the Yucatan maybe a hundred miles further South than modelled, it could go from having 40 knot winds over the top shearing it like a sheep to winds under 10 knots.  That seems like a pretty big error to make 24 to 48 hours out, but that would be 92Ls only real chance assuming the GFS has the rest of the forecast right.

 

Obviously cheering for the NAM.  Rain has been missing me.

[phil882]

I think the 12z GFS just shows the inherent uncertainty with this system. None of the models are properly handling the well defined 200 hPa vort max in the GOM. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this feature rapidly weakening over the next 24 hours, but as of yet it shows no signs of doing so. 

[wxmx]

I know it is bad form mentioning the NAM, but its solution of 92L, too badly sheared to develop but a nice low to mid level wave approaching the entire Texas coast in 3 days, with the promise of enhanced rainfall beyond the 84 hour forecast period, would be awesome.

 

GFS solution of what comes off the Yucatan trying to develop, but being stretched apart and not raining IMBY not as happy.  GFS starts off the Yucatan looking halfway decent, but the 850 mb vort max is being stretched, and then reforms much closer to Louisiana rather quickly, relocating under the convection sheared off the original vort max.  Looking at the 4 panels, if 92L comes off the Yucatan maybe a hundred miles further South than modelled, it could go from having 40 knot winds over the top shearing it like a sheep to winds under 10 knots.  That seems like a pretty big error to make 24 to 48 hours out, but that would be 92Ls only real chance assuming the GFS has the rest of the forecast right.

 

Obviously cheering for the NAM.  Rain has been missing me.

Ukie approaching the MX/TX as a named storm would probably be a decent run for your lawn (can't see precip totals)

[wxmx]

I think the 12z GFS just shows the inherent uncertainty with this system. None of the models are properly handling the well defined 200 hPa vort max in the GOM. Both the GFS and ECMWF show this feature rapidly weakening over the next 24 hours, but as of yet it shows no signs of doing so. 

So after many days, because one thing or another, there's still uncertainty of where this thing is going...if it's going to develop or not...and if there will be any significant spinoffs

[am19psu]

So after many days, because one thing or another, there's still uncertainty of where this thing is going...if it's going to develop or not...and if there will be any significant spinoffs

I think we all said from the beginning it was going to be weak and lame

[wxmx]

I think we all said from the beginning it was going to be weak and lame

Yep...but we are still unsure of where is going to be weak and lame...and if it's going to be a name waster or not.

[Ed Lizard]

Unrelated to 92L or Erin, 2 of the more unreliable globals develop a low cloud swirl approaching 45W into a TC.

[Ed Lizard]

Ukie approaching the MX/TX as a named storm would probably be a decent run for your lawn (can't see precip totals)

 

 

Looks like something similar to NAM, a well developed tropical wave.  1008 mb at "landfall".   PSU e-Wall, it is closed off at 700 mb.  I prefer weak lameness to be proximate.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

[Sunny and Warm]

Ed, one of the members of the GFDL is giving you some love.  Not much, but some.  Hopefully you'll be able to pick out this "storm" from a T-storm.

 

 

 

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

I think we all said from the beginning it was going to be weak and lame

 

Meow meow meow meow meow.

[Sunny and Warm]

Meow meow meow meow meow.

you chasing in Brownsville?? 

[andyhb]

every year can't be like 1893 or 2005...I'm only interested in tropical storms that hit my area...Irene and Sandy the last two years have caused much heart-ache...Sandy was the latest hurricane to effect NYC...October 29th...The previous date was October 10th 1894...We could be in for another late season hit and I hope it doesn't hit my area...

 

We'll be sure to use our storm shields this time.

[AutoPenalti]

000

WTNT45 KNHC 152032

TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013

500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERIN HAS EVOLVED INTO ONE THAT FEATURES

MORE BANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE

CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE

LATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING

REMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL

BE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OF

26-27C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE

PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SSTS INCREASE...ERIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER

MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO

THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND

OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO

HAVE TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS

BEEN A SIZEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL

GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW A DEEPER

REPRESENTATION OF ERIN MOVING MORE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL

BE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AZORES. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS SHOW

ERIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER

THAT...A TURN BACK TOWARD THE LEFT IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS

AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS

BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE

SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3

THROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS

NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

24H 16/1800Z 16.7N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

36H 17/0600Z 17.5N 34.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

48H 17/1800Z 18.3N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

72H 18/1800Z 19.0N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

120H 20/1800Z 20.0N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

[Eyewall2005]

Things should light up soon..

 

CSU Two Week Forecast from 16-29 of August