Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Ed Lizard]

9th anniversary.  Misleading, gusts might have been over 155 mph, however.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unV5KcSrY-I

 

Still awesome video...

[bluewave]

I was only speaking of potential genesis, not intensity or longevity.  But I agree, conditions become less favorable down the road for the current wave, and we'll probably have to wait a week or more before we see anything 'pretty'. 

 

Yeah, it also looks like the August passage into the more favorable MJO phases will take a little longer than the last

several years.

 

 

 

[Floydbuster]

 

A lil' Charley retrospective on the 9th anniversary.

[phil882]

Surprised nobody mentioned the ECMWF conceding to the GFS in the 12z run cycle, showing a similar evolution on 92L, as well as likely TCG off the most recent AEW (although it undergoes a similar Dorian like evolution in which it later dissipates in the MDR). 

[wxmx]

Surprised nobody mentioned the ECMWF conceding to the GFS in the 12z run cycle, showing a similar evolution on 92L, as well as likely TCG off the most recent AEW (although it undergoes a similar Dorian like evolution in which it later dissipates in the MDR). 

Yes, it develops the northern vorticity and also the troughing is stronger. GFS and Euro show significant shear, and an uninteresting evolution in the GoM. Now the Ukie is the lonely outlier, with a strong cyclone landfalling just N of Tampico...interesting, but being an outlier I consider it a low chance solution.

 

But I dont need a cyclone, 100kts sustained winds in my hometown .

[phil882]

Yes, it develops the northern vorticity and also the troughing is stronger. GFS and Euro show significant shear, and an uninteresting evolution in the GoM. Now the Ukie is the lonely outlier, with a strong cyclone landfalling just N of Tampico...interesting, but being an outlier I consider it a low chance solution.

 

But I dont need a cyclone, 100kts sustained winds in my hometown .

 

The one thing to watch with the ECMWF is how it breaks down the upper-level shear axis over the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF wants this to break down into a bunch of upper level +PV vortexes, but its entirely possible that the diabatic outflow from the ongoing convection in the Caribbean overwhelms the upper level +PV like what is being depicted by the last few runs of the GFS. I don't think the UKMET is a realistic solution at this point, as it appears there will be a well established trough over the Ohio Valley that should pick up any disturbance in the GOM. 

[phil882]

Probabilities are up:
 

 
92L: 30% in 48 hours / 40% in next 5 days
93L: 20% in 48 hours / 30% in next 5 days

[Torchageddon]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

That time-sensitive image now shows mostly uninspiring years that I don't consider to be anything good. Only interesting years in this new batch are 1989 and 2008. It also has 1981 as a top analog which is something that caught my eye because as some of you have noticed, both the eastern Pacific and Atlantic have not had a major hurricane yet this year...it was a decade ago in 2003 this last happened to this date. The record that I know of for the longest without a major for both basins is 1981 at Sept.3 for the TC formation and Sept.7 for when Hurricane Floyd became a major.

[phil882]

The African wave is really looking healthy tonight. With a CCKW progressing through the region over the next 24 hours or so providing enhanced cyclonic vorticity and relatively favorable easterly upper level flow, things are looking up for development. Development is also supported by both the GFS and ECMWF at this point in the short term. 

 

[AutoPenalti]

Speaking of CV systems, anyone would like to tell me when was the last time a CV system formed and maintained its status as a Hurricane when it reached landfall in the states?

Kinda curious.

[wxmx]

Speaking of CV systems, anyone would like to tell me when was the last time a CV system formed and maintained its status as a Hurricane when it reached landfall in the states?

Kinda curious.

Frances 2004 for the East Coast.

 

Ike 2008 for the GoM

[AutoPenalti]

Frances 2004 for the East Coast.

Ike 2008 for the GoM

Thanks!

[jcwxguy]

[Minnesota Meso]

I'm very tired so I didn't take the time to load this into my photo sharing site, just a direct link here......

 

Good Morning ED from your friendly Gem Model....sexy ?

 

Edit, I have no idea why the GEM is sowing this, for the mets out there  want to take a shot at it?

 

 

[Srain]

LOL

[phil882]

The CMC is very unlikely solution and doesn't seem very realistic given the magnitude of a weakness that will exist in the GOM.

 

The ECMWF is also strange though. It has a very interesting evolution where it cuts off a strong 200 hPa low in the Central GOM. 93L comes along moving west but the weakness in the mid-levels created by this upper level cutoff low stops the system in its tracks and curves it northward. From there, the ECMWF basically strings the system out, with part of the energy going into the southeast US while the remaining energy hangs back in the GOM and gets tangled up with this upper-level vortex. At this point, I still think the ECMWF is still too far south with the initial disturbance, and I still see a GFS like solution playing out, where the vast majority of the energy + a weak TC develops as the system is picked up by the sharpening upper-level trough over the eastern US.

 

Its a very messy solution and if it proves that this upper-level vortex is much weaker than forecast (a possible solution if diabatic heating from deep convection associated with 92L overwhelms the +PV associated with the upper-level vortex) all bets are off. This is essentially what the CMC does, but again the CMC convective schemes are iffy at best in the tropics, which could be overemphasizing PV destruction in the upper-levels. 

 

----

 

92L is also interesting. ECMWF is now showing a minimal TS by the time the system reaches the Cape Verdes. Unfortunately for 93L's sake its got an awfully weak mid-level ridge to its north, thanks to another strong cutoff upper-level cyclone near the Azores. In fact 2 days from now, 93L is still likely to be affecting the Cape Verdes as it craws WNW at a snails pace (a la Igor 2010). Unforunately the weak ridge will also allow 93L to gain significant latitude, which makes it an unlikely candidate for a Cape Verde TC to make it all the way across the Atlantic. Additionally, it also moves the system over 26-25C SSTs and into a much drier atmosphere. Erin (I think 93L is more likely to develop first vs. 92L) could very well be Dorian's big sister, a slower mover, but with a similar fate awaiting the vortex in the Central Atlantic. 

[Floydbuster]

The CMC is very unlikely solution and doesn't seem very realistic given the magnitude of a weakness that will exist in the GOM.

 

The ECMWF is also strange though. It has a very interesting evolution where it cuts off a strong 200 hPa low in the Central GOM. 93L comes along moving west but the weakness in the mid-levels created by this upper level cutoff low stops the system in its tracks and curves it northward. From there, the ECMWF basically strings the system out, with part of the energy going into the southeast US while the remaining energy hangs back in the GOM and gets tangled up with this upper-level vortex. At this point, I still think the ECMWF is still too far south with the initial disturbance, and I still see a GFS like solution playing out, where the vast majority of the energy + a weak TC develops as the system is picked up by the sharpening upper-level trough over the eastern US.

 

Its a very messy solution and if it proves that this upper-level vortex is much weaker than forecast (a possible solution if diabatic heating from deep convection associated with 92L overwhelms the +PV associated with the upper-level vortex) all bets are off. This is essentially what the CMC does, but again the CMC convective schemes are iffy at best in the tropics, which could be overemphasizing PV destruction in the upper-levels. 

 

----

 

92L is also interesting. ECMWF is now showing a minimal TS by the time the system reaches the Cape Verdes. Unfortunately for 93L's sake its got an awfully weak mid-level ridge to its north, thanks to another strong cutoff upper-level cyclone near the Azores. In fact 2 days from now, 93L is still likely to be affecting the Cape Verdes as it craws WNW at a snails pace (a la Igor 2010). Unforunately the weak ridge will also allow 93L to gain significant latitude, which makes it an unlikely candidate for a Cape Verde TC to make it all the way across the Atlantic. Additionally, it also moves the system over 26-25C SSTs and into a much drier atmosphere. Erin (I think 93L is more likely to develop first vs. 92L) could very well be Dorian's big sister, a slower mover, but with a similar fate awaiting the vortex in the Central Atlantic. 

 

I agree. Quikscat winds showed near Tropical Storm force already, and the latest satellite images show increased convection over the presumed center. I have a feeling this will be Tropical Storm Erin before the 92L Caribbean system does.

[phil882]

I agree. Quikscat winds showed near Tropical Storm force already, and the latest satellite images show increased convection over the presumed center. I have a feeling this will be Tropical Storm Erin before the 92L Caribbean system does.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC go code red (cherry) at 8am

 

[Floydbuster]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC go code red (cherry) at 8am

 

 

I agree. I have a sneaking suspicion this is probably already Tropical Storm Erin, but de-facto so.

 

I also agree with you regarding the intensity. The intensity guidance never takes this above 65 mph, and I kind of doubt this one makes it even as far west as Dorian. I'd be much more concerned with 92L in the Caribbean which has continued to slowly consolidate convection overnight. I think that the system's current pace of motion will likely allow it to feed towards the weakness, but it has to do so quickly unless it gets left behind. Perhaps the unknowns about whether or not it does something similar to Bonnie in 2004 (albeit a much, much weaker trough) or whether it gets left behind ala Claudette 2003 is what is causing the disparity in the model guidance. (GFS showing a weak system into Pensacola/CMC showing strong Hurricane Fernand into South Texas)

[Ed Lizard]

I'm very tired so I didn't take the time to load this into my photo sharing site, just a direct link here......

 

Good Morning ED from your friendly Gem Model....sexy ?

 

Edit, I have no idea why the GEM is sowing this, for the mets out there  want to take a shot at it?

 

 

 

Someday the GEM will actually pull the upset and produce a superior forecast.  Probably not this week, however.

[Ed Lizard]

15 km and 30 km FIM both a high end TS for Eastern Louisiana about hour 96 to 102.

 

Some of the .gov sites I want to look at aren't working for me.  I wanted to look at EMC TC ensemble stuff.  But FIM is working.

 

Non .gov 6Z GFS looks like a minimal storm, also Eastern Louisiana but with lots of rain.

 

Edit to Add

NOAA website issues looks fairly widespread, satellites, models, NHC, SPC.  How annoying.

[Sunny and Warm]

[Sunny and Warm]

[Ed Lizard]

Did I mention that NOAA.gov websites are being flaky today?

[Sunny and Warm]

Did I mention that NOAA.gov websites are being flaky today?

I got a good laugh out of that.  Somedays it doesn't pay to get out of bed.

[Derecho!]

The whole .gov domain looks down to me  - federal and state.

 

Not a peep about it anywhere on the internet that I can see. Strange.

[Srain]

Comcast is down with DNS issues. ATT is working fine for all NOAA sites.

[Bruinsyear]

Talk about an eerie track! Other than coming more from the SE direction it can't really be worse than that. At least it doesn't look too intense.

 

 

 

 

[wxmeddler]

Comcast is down with DNS issues. ATT is working fine for all NOAA sites.

 

Yep, All noaa.gov sub-domains are down with my Comcast, but load fine on my Verizon phone. Go figure.

[Sunny and Warm]

Talk about an eerie track! Other than coming more from the SE direction it can't really be worse than that. At least it doesn't look too intense.

what is odd is that the further west ensemble members are over water the longest and yet are the weaker members.  Must be a shear issue related to the trough axis.