Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[jordanwx]

Something interesting to look at is how the European op handled Utor last Thursday and Friday for today. Not even a closed circulation... I'm thinking something is wrong with the European op with regards to TCG but I could be wrong....

I wouldn't say there is something wrong with it but the ECMWF is not the best at TC genesis. I much prefer looking at the CMC, GFS or FIM (and respective ensembles) when looking for potential threats in the long run. Yes, some of these models spin up too many storms (CMC especially), but they are the models which will point out the areas worth keeping an eye on. If the ECMWF comes on board too then great, but it's rarely ever the first to sniff out a threat.

[GaWx]

While I don't necessarily disagree with your overall thoughts (you've provided a lot of good data the last few weeks), I'm not sure you can say a Cat 3 or greater hurricane is "likely" this year.  To me, likely is greater than 60% chance, and that's some serious odds on something occurring that hasn't in 7 years now.  Maybe I'm misreading your post.

 

 Thanks. They are serious odds, but I think the odds are at least ~2 in 3. I'm banking on a cool August. Even if August ends up not cool, the odds would be ~50-50 just based on current/forecasted ENSO vs. the overall odds of 38%. 2008 is about the only cool August/similar ENSO combo that we've had since 2005. And it had two solid cat. 2 hits (Ike and Gustav).

 The lack of a major the last seven years isn't normal, of course. I'm not putting weight on that.

[wxmx]

The TW low level vorticity weakened while the mid and low level vorticity from the low in the SW Caribbean strengthened... this would probably favor the southern track option

 

 

[dtk]

Well...if you change the location of a storm you will change it's odds of forming. Guessing most of the adjustments are pretty minor though.

Except the relocation distances are fairly small. Also, relocation only occurs post-genesis. See previous posts on the topic, and references to this only occurring if advisory is at least td strength.

[jordanwx]

Except the relocation distances are fairly small. Also, relocation only occurs post-genesis. See previous posts on the topic, and references to this only occurring if advisory is at least td strength.

Ah, forgot about that. Thanks

[Ed Lizard]

WPC forecast with NHC coordination rejects GFS solution, goes Euro of a weak wave at low latitude.  Even 6Z and 0Z GFS (and 0Z GEFS) suggests a system that may struggle to be classified as a TC.

 

Excitement level dropping for me.

[CoastalWx]

The euro is trying to hint at some waves moving off of Africa. GFS is a little more robust in that, but we'll see. Conditions are at least becoming more favorable. A lot of undisturbed high octane fuel in the Carb....perhaps it helps out for the Fall?

[Mike.Ventrice]

I'm liking the overall pattern over the MDR today.. MIMIC-TPW showing some moisture aggregation as a couple of easterly waves push off Africa.

 

 

These easterly waves will likely get a nice boost as a 1.5 sigma CCKW interacts with them.
 

 

Based off the general pattern, I would anticipate maybe one or two storms to pop up here in the next 3-7 days over the MDR..

[am19psu]

Along those lines, Euro ensemble mean shows a precip max coming from the MDR and entering the Eastern Caribbean around Aug 20-21

[Mike.Ventrice]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

 

[wxmx]

Time for nowcasting. ASCAT shows that the low east for Nicaragua is still there, and visible shows some mid level turning starting as well in that area. There's more convection where the TW is interacting with the low, but it's in a high shear zone and looks more like banding. Models are still split, but the GFS has stronger SW Caribbean vorticity in the 06Z run, before switching it to the TW vorticity. That delays development. Euro and Ukmet are a bit north now, but still have it aiming the Mexican Gulf coast as a weak entity.

[Ed Lizard]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

 

1960 and 1992 are always interesting

[Ed Lizard]

Time for nowcasting. ASCAT shows that the low east for Nicaragua is still there, and visible shows some mid level turning starting as well in that area. There's more convection where the TW is interacting with the low, but it's in a high shear zone and looks more like banding. Models are still split, but the GFS has stronger SW Caribbean vorticity in the 06Z run, before switching it to the TW vorticity. That delays development. Euro and Ukmet are a bit north now, but still have it aiming the Mexican Gulf coast as a weak entity.

 

 

I haven't completely given up, although confidence is down.  There is a weaker 700mb/850 mb vortex East of the one closer to Nicaraugua and it may be trying to rotate around the stronger vorticity per CIMSS, and the weaker (for now) vorticity seems to be closer to the most active convection.

 

 

Edit to Add

 

Main vort has more favorable shear, but it will also suffer more from land interaction.  Not that excited, te consistency of the Euro, despite talk of past storms, when something flips between runs like the GFS, it will have nailed the solution in one run or another.  6Z FIM9 is still a strong TS to Central Gulf.  So I'm not 100% given up.

 

Today's invest cancelled, one scheduled for tomorrow.

[wxsmwhrms]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

 

Interesting...thanks for nothing this.  A lot of intriguing periods in there...

[NJwinter23]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

 

 

Definitely a lot of landfallers/near ones for the east coast in and around those dates...

1955 was a year with 3 land-falling canes in NC (Connie and Diane in August and Ione in later Sept)

1992 date goes without saying

1993 date lines up with Hurricane Emily which lashed NC before turning northeast

1961 had Carla hit Texas around the date, Esther hit new england later in sept

1960 had Donna

1999 had Dennis in early Sept hit NC before Floyd came

 

 

Just a long way of reiterating that indeed this pattern could be threatening IF we get some storms out there

[Ed Lizard]

Interestingly enough, GFS clearly sees low level vortmax on Nicaraguan coast and still develops a system on the Northern tip of the Yucatan that still heads North.  Going to have ~35 knot SWerlies aloft over it, partially offset by the system moving North.  On the Western edge of 700 and 500 mb RH over 70%, so the SW shear will be pushing dry air at it.

 

Or the GFS is maybe a TD into Florida Panhandle, previous Euros a tropical wave into Mexico.  Again, limited enthusiasm.

[icebreaker5221]

I'm liking the overall pattern over the MDR today.. MIMIC-TPW showing some moisture aggregation as a couple of easterly waves push off Africa.

 

 

These easterly waves will likely get a nice boost as a 1.5 sigma CCKW interacts with them.

 

 

Based off the general pattern, I would anticipate maybe one or two storms to pop up here in the next 3-7 days over the MDR..

 

I agree Mike.  I think the wave that just emerged from the African coast is more interesting than that thing in the Caribbean.  Upper-level conditions in the MDR are the most favorable we've seen this season, with low shear over a large stretch of ocean.  After several weeks of excessive SAL outbreaks, it appears that the dust is finally beginning to dissipate.  Lastly, that CCKW you speak of might be just enough to provide the upper-level divergence needed to kick-start genesis.  Even the RAMMB product has elevated chances of genesis over the next 48 h, although if something occurs it would most likely be well after 48 h. 

 

Only problem right now is this wave has very little cyclonic vorticity associated with it, so there is a chance it could go 'poof'.

 

Wave coming off of Africa:

 

 

Favorable upper-level pattern:

 

[bluewave]

I agree Mike.  I think the wave that just emerged from the African coast is more interesting than that thing in the Caribbean.  Upper-level conditions in the MDR are the most favorable we've seen this season, with low shear over a large stretch of ocean.  After several weeks of excessive SAL outbreaks, it appears that the dust is finally beginning to dissipate.  Lastly, that CCKW you speak of might be just enough to provide the upper-level divergence needed to kick-start genesis.  Even the RAMMB product has elevated chances of genesis over the next 48 h, although if something occurs it would most likely be well after 48 h. 

 

Only problem right now is this wave has very little cyclonic vorticity associated with it, so there is a chance it could go 'poof'.

 

Wave coming off of Africa:

 

avn-l.jpg

 

Favorable upper-level pattern:

 

gfs_uv250_atl_9.png

 

With all the unusually stable air still out over the Tropical Atlantic, we may have to wait until beyond the

next 10 days for something stronger than we have seen so far with Andrea to Dorian.

[Ed Lizard]

With all the unusually stable air still out over the Tropical Atlantic, we may have to wait until beyond the

next 10 days for something more than we have seen so far with Andrea to Dorian.

  Glass half full, GFS forecast of heights flattening out suggests if anything does develop in the MDR, it is by far a done deal it fishes.  And the 1960 and 1992 analogs above, well, feeds my natural optimism.  (PS, I also checked the heights over the Atlantic).  Op beyond truncation, but not way beyond into silly time.

 

Prior GEFS and 0Z Euro op/ensemble also have a generally happy 500 mb pattern for SE USA action.  I think it is almost 8 years since iCyclone chased Florida.  Just saying.

 

[wxsmwhrms]

I agree Mike.  I think the wave that just emerged from the African coast is more interesting than that thing in the Caribbean.  Upper-level conditions in the MDR are the most favorable we've seen this season, with low shear over a large stretch of ocean.  After several weeks of excessive SAL outbreaks, it appears that the dust is finally beginning to dissipate.  Lastly, that CCKW you speak of might be just enough to provide the upper-level divergence needed to kick-start genesis.  Even the RAMMB product has elevated chances of genesis over the next 48 h, although if something occurs it would most likely be well after 48 h. 

 

Only problem right now is this wave has very little cyclonic vorticity associated with it, so there is a chance it could go 'poof'.

 

Wave coming off of Africa:

 

avn-l.jpg

 

Favorable upper-level pattern:

 

gfs_uv250_atl_9.png

Anybody familiar with this site?  Their scheme seems to like that eastern Atlantic area a little better as well...

 

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp

[Srain]

Note sure if we can compare this set of years as apples to apples to the current state in the tropics but the cpc analog years for the current state in the extra-tropics raise some red flags....

 

Interesting to see 1961 as well. The wave that developed in what became Carla began festering September 1st.

[Superstorm93]

NHC not really that optimistic about the EATL wave. Regardless, it might beat the Caribbean mess to invest status. 

 

 

 

 

 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT COULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE WAVE ENTERS A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH.

 

[AutoPenalti]

NHC not really that optimistic about the EATL wave. Regardless, it might beat the Caribbean mess to invest status.

ScreenHunter_53 Aug. 13 13.38.png

Yay! Something's happening in the tropics!

[Superstorm93]

Two new invests....

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 92, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL922013
AL, 92, 2013081318,   , BEST,   0, 163N,  813W,  20,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 

    INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2013, DB, O, 2013081318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932013
AL, 93, 2013081318,   , BEST,   0, 140N,  170W,  20,    0, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 

[icebreaker5221]

With all the unusually stable air still out over the Tropical Atlantic, we may have to wait until beyond the

next 10 days for something stronger than we have seen so far with Andrea to Dorian.

 

I was only speaking of potential genesis, not intensity or longevity.  But I agree, conditions become less favorable down the road for the current wave, and we'll probably have to wait a week or more before we see anything 'pretty'. 

[Ed Lizard]

LOL

 

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+84 : 20.0N  94.0W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

00UTC 17.08.2013  20.0N  94.0W     WEAK

12UTC 17.08.2013  20.2N  94.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.08.2013  20.5N  95.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.08.2013  21.3N  95.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.08.2013  22.1N  96.2W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.08.2013  22.6N  96.9W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY





 

 

[wxmeddler]

What product is that Ed? SHIPS?

[Superstorm93]

What product is that Ed? SHIPS?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/warnings

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/wtnt80.txt

[hurricaneman]

What product is that Ed? SHIPS?

UKMET

[Derecho!]

What product is that Ed? SHIPS?

 

That's the UKMET vortex tracker product.  The UKMET isn't quite as crazy as the CMC on intensification, usually.