Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Ed Lizard]

Based on Mimic TPW, early 12Z GFS, satellite, and even the NAM (yes, I know) SIM radar, I am standing with my August 2nd prediction of a glass 1/8th full optimistic on a lemon in the Gulf sometime in the next 3 1/2 days.  1/64th dull on a mandarin, 1/128th on a cherry or tropical/subtropical depression.

 

I know, that is bold, out on a limb.  I am weighing in the fact NHC probably pays more attention to systems near the East Coast and in the Gulf on my 1/th optimism on a lemon.

 

I'll want to see beyond 6 days on the GFS and the other guidance, but Jorge's area of interest last night, the 5 day 0% lemon, already has a lemon, and I may give odds on a mandarin 5-8 days later today.  (Early signs through 6 1/2 days on 12Z GFS positive)  I was feeling in the dumps about the tropics the last couple of days, maybe this GFS run will help turn my frown to a smile.

 

 

 

EDIT TO ADD

 

GFS op seems somewhat supported by its ensembles for Central/East Gulf coast fun and frolics in 10 days...  (Op GFS showed a weak system hitting Florida Panhandle day 10...)  Less fixated on post resolution op details or half res ensemble member details, but general trend, finally maybe action in close...

 

 

FIM9 at 168 hours, nice PW max in SW Caribbean, falling pressure, 250 mb anticyclone aloft not perfectly positioned, but close enough shear should be manageable.  Seems to generally support 12Z GFS idea of SW Caribbean finally getting interesting this time next week.

[Mike.Ventrice]

She's coming... Some signs of hope

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This CCKW is pushing multivariate MJO type indices to amplify over the East Pacific and propagate eastward thereafter across the Atlantic and over the Indian.

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

This will earn a Bendy Mod 'LOL', but while CIMSS shows not much in the way of vorticity, the blob neighborhood 30ºN and 60ºW has upper divergence/lower convergence, and I'm glass eight optimistic on a lemon.

 

Speaking of lemons, the Eastern Caribbean disturbance the FIM9 seems to like to start getting interesting next week on several runs, and that the 0Z FIM in 2 weeks takes into Northern Tamaulipas for a Dolly-esque chase, is now a 10% lemon, up from a 0% lemon.

 

Way out range, GEFS getting happy with CV systems in two weeks, but most have a fishy feel where they close off at...

 

 

EDIT TO ADD

 

Call me crazy, on that retrograding upper low into the Gulf, I am still glass eighth full on a lemon tomorrow through Sunday morning.  Down to 1/256th on actual TC development, but a blob in the Gulf with a hint of spin at any level could earn a lemon.

[wxtrackercody]

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

 

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season - June 1 to November 30 - NOAA's updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

[wxmx]

12z GFS showed a bit more energy getting condensed in the SE GoM before getting yanked by the trough...now 18z GFS shows a real, although a bit weak, cyclone in the SW GoM from the piece of energy that I have been mentioning for several days now that should start to consolidate in the W Caribbean.

[wxmx]

Just a bit of analysis about the 18z GFS. Around the time our suspect enters the GoM a CCKW will be entering the EPac/W GoM/W Carib. Upper level conditions will really improve in the wake of the ULL currently over the Bahamas that's retrograding west for the NW Carib and GoM. Euro still doesn't show anything of worth, so cyclogenesis is still very uncertain.

[BuffaloWeather]

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/nasa_2013080800_dustex_atl.gif

 

This has to kill tropical development eh? Talk about dry air!

[AutoPenalti]

http://models.weatherbell.com/news/nasa_2013080800_dustex_atl.gif

This has to kill tropical development eh? Talk about dry air!

Ugh...that's depressing.

[Ed Lizard]

Ugh...that's depressing.

 

That wouldn't affect the Caribbean...

FIM 9 and twice a day FIM 8 have been somewhat consistent, the 0Z and 12Z 30 km FIMS ranged from South of the Border to near Mobile, or the long range forecast is uncertain.  And the lack of non-US models is, as Jorge mentioned, concerning.

 

But I'm three eights full optimistic on a mandarin day 4-7, and glass quarter optimistic on a cherry or TD day 5-8 in the SW Caribbean/Yucatan area.

 

 

Down to 1/16th glass full on a Gulf lemon from retrograding low next 3 days, but I stopped expecting anything more than a lemon about three days ago.

 

WxMX is top 5 of any amateur who posts here, and there were some NYC area red tags whose opinions I valued less than WxMX.  If he is interested, it is worth being interested in.

[Minnesota Meso]

Looking at the ensemble forecast from the GEM, GFS and the ECMWF, it does appear that the southern ridge may make some progress further north , while the ensembles would tend to flatten things out in the long term, there are hints that the H5 ridge over the SW states could start to lift north.  If that should happen it may create a weakness in the flow pattern over the GOM where we could see a home grown type of TC develop. 

 

Given the fact that I'm just a amateur weather nut, is there any mets out there that may agree???....I've said at other sites that the only way we can get heat up here is a Tropical Storm to out south.

[Ed Lizard]

That wouldn't affect the Caribbean...

FIM 9 and twice a day FIM 8 have been somewhat consistent, the 0Z and 12Z 30 km FIMS ranged from South of the Border to near Mobile, or the long range forecast is uncertain.  And the lack of non-US models is, as Jorge mentioned, concerning.

 

But I'm three eights full optimistic on a mandarin day 4-7, and glass quarter optimistic on a cherry or TD day 5-8 in the SW Caribbean/Yucatan area.

 

 

Down to 1/16th glass full on a Gulf lemon from retrograding low next 3 days, but I stopped expecting anything more than a lemon about three days ago.

 

WxMX is top 5 of any amateur who posts here, and there were some NYC area red tags whose opinions I valued less than WxMX.  If he is interested, it is worth being interested in.

 

 

I see 15 km resolution  FIM9 as a tropical model not well respected on another thread. 

 

http://ruc.noaa.gov/pdf/FIM-1y-retro-NCEP-MEG-6june2013.pdf

 

Surely, just from amateur observation, beating GGEM and NavGEM this season...  I don't keep official score, but it has been decent so far, best I can tell.

[icebreaker5221]

Upper levels finally looking much more favorable in the Gulf by 180 h as upper-level ridging builds in.  Moisture also looks sufficient.  Perhaps the #EdStorm is not a complete fantasy?

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Upper levels finally looking much more favorable in the Gulf by 180 h as upper-level ridging builds in.  Moisture also looks sufficient.  Perhaps the #EdStorm is not a complete fantasy?

 

gfs-ens_uv200_watl_31.png

 

I'm in favor of a solution that plays out like this.. Something to consider is if the model forecast suggests a tropical cyclone over the GOM... do you think the increased convection is causing more favorable upper-levels, i.e. a diabatically generated upper-level anticyclone? 

 

With regards to the tropics... I'm in favor of an increased period of genesis 8/14-8/25. Heck, if a true MJO signal builds over the Indian Ocean once this Kelvin wave passes, I think the activity could persist through the first couples of days of September. If this were the case, I'm thinking things will quiet down mid-September and we could get another period of activity early October. It all depends on what happens over the Indian Ocean late Aug

[Ed Lizard]

Upper levels finally looking much more favorable in the Gulf by 180 h as upper-level ridging builds in.  Moisture also looks sufficient.  Perhaps the #EdStorm is not a complete fantasy?

 

gfs-ens_uv200_watl_31.png

 

About the #EdStorm, if the FIM is not reliable guidance in the tropics, at least it is consistent.  And has support of 5 of 20 displayed GEFS perturbations.  Only inconsistency, 30 km has been Tamaulipas on 0Z runs, yesterday's 12Z run was Mobile.

 

And compare 144 hour forecast PW/500 mb with yesterday 168 hour PW/50 mb from FIM8 and FIM9.  Like I said, consistent.  I'm still sensitive to accusations I'm using the DGEX or something.

[Srain]

The NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have been near 80-100% in favor of genesis in the SW Caribbean the past several days in the 0-120 hour time frame and even longer if you were to look in the 120-240 hour range. With probabilities well into the 50-60 percentile range now extending to the NW Caribbean, that tends to raise an eyebrow and give validity to those genesis indicators. Those looking for the European suite of guidance for any clue of TC genesis are wasting their time, IMO. My hunch is we will see a Gulf storm in the next 7-10 days, FWIW.

[am19psu]

I'm in favor of an increased period of genesis 8/14-8/25. Heck, if a true MJO signal builds over the Indian Ocean once this Kelvin wave passes, I think the activity could persist through the first couples of days of September. If this were the case, I'm thinking things will quiet down mid-September and we could get another period of activity early October. It all depends on what happens over the Indian Ocean late Aug

I've been going 8/20-9/10, but yeah, we're on the same page for the mechanisms

[am19psu]

Those looking for the European suite of guidance for any clue of TC genesis are wasting their time, IMO.

Why would you disregard the best piece of model guidance we currently have? I'm not saying we can't get something to form down there (though I think it would tend to stay weak and disorganized), but not having Euro support should always give one pause.

[NJwinter23]

I've been going 8/20-9/10, but yeah, we're on the same page for the mechanisms

 

Would I be wrong to speculate that the 11-15 day pattern looks potentially dangerous for the East Coast as well? Granted if it has a little staying power beyond the 25th

[am19psu]

Would I be wrong to speculate that the 11-15 day pattern looks potentially dangerous for the East Coast as well? Granted if it has a little staying power beyond the 25th

As modeled, the Euro would favor the SE Coast or Atlantic FL, while the GFS would either be W Gulf/Yucatan or recurve east of the US depending on the early track. I have to do our synoptic forecast today, so I'll have more to offer there this afternoon, probably.

[NJwinter23]

As modeled, the Euro would favor the SE Coast or Atlantic FL, while the GFS would either be W Gulf/Yucatan or recurve east of the US depending on the early track. I have to do our synoptic forecast today, so I'll have more to offer there this afternoon, probably.

 

Sounds good..Yeah the higher heights in eastern canada/maritimes and the look of an ULL trapped in the south raises an eye brow...but we'll see.

[am19psu]

Sounds good..Yeah the higher heights in eastern canada/maritimes and the look of an ULL trapped in the south raises an eye brow...but we'll see.

To get into the Northeast, you really want to see a full latitude trough from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, rather than the closed ULL (at least if you are forecasting 2 weeks out). But yeah, it's close and would definitely produce some weenie runs of the models.

[NJwinter23]

To get into the Northeast, you really want to see a full latitude trough from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, rather than the closed ULL (at least if you are forecasting 2 weeks out). But yeah, it's close and would definitely produce some weenie runs of the models.

Very true, the ULL in the south is Carolinas/southeast threatening as you put it...Hugo pattern comes to mind  (  )

[am19psu]

LOL @ that September pattern. There you go NJwinter23.

[Ed Lizard]

Back to the Caribbean, the Euro ensemble mean looks rather dull, anyone with access know if any Euro ensemble members are seeing anything of what US modeling (even the NavGEM) is suggesting?

[Srain]

Why would you disregard the best piece of model guidance we currently have? I'm not saying we can't get something to form down there (though I think it would tend to stay weak and disorganized), but not having Euro support should always give one pause.

I'm talking more seasonal versus operational, Adam. There was a change via the seasonal modeling to that of lower pressures across the MDR and Caribbean compared to what we had seen prior via the Euro Seasonal guidance which is more in line with the other reliable long range guidance.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm confused, the actual July 2013 anomalies don't look like all that good a match for the 4 analog July years chosen.  But it could be me, I could easily be missing something.

[am19psu]

I'm talking more seasonal versus operational, Adam. There was a change via the seasonal modeling to that of lower pressures across the MDR and Caribbean compared to what we had seen prior via the Euro Seasonal guidance which is more in line with the other reliable long range guidance.

Gotcha. Thanks for clarifying, Steve

[NJwinter23]

The analogs based on the summer pattern progression are hinting that will be the main pattern for the last week of August  through September. So at least some part of the East Coast could see tropical storm or hurricane potential once the season becomes more active. 

 

 

JULY.gif

 

AUG.gif

 

 

JULY.png

 

AUG.png

 

SEPT.png

 

 

LOL @ that September pattern. There you go NJwinter23.

 

Not sure if I like the July "match" there, and August 2011 as an analog to this year?? .. but LOL indeed if that has merrit   

[NJwinter23]

The top cpc analog in 1991 is the week preceding Hurricane Bob too, for what its worth 

 

[am19psu]

The top cpc analog in 1991 is the week preceding Hurricane Bob too, for what its worth

Did CTBlizz lock it up yet?