Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[GaWx]

Wow, yeah-- that's a pretty-cool factoid.  Except for 1976, all those years had major American landfalls.  Hopefully there's some hard-coded connection.  

 

P.S.  You're welcome for the KING info.  That's one of my all-time favorite cyclones, so I'm pretty close with the data on that one.  

 

I'm looking at the 15 coolest Augusts since 1950. You can add 1974, 1985, and 1989 to the list of coolest Augusts.

[icebreaker5221]

It now appears extremely likely that the JJA tri-monthly mean ONI will come in <0.  Since the start of the +AMO in 1995, there have been 9 years with JJA ONI <0: 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1996 and 1995.  Of these seasons, only 2 did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall (2010 and 2000) while 3 of these years had an impressive 3 hurricane landfalls each (2008, 1999, 1998). 

[sugaree]

It now appears extremely likely that the JJA tri-monthly mean ONI will come in <0.  Since the start of the +AMO in 1995, there have been 9 years with JJA ONI <0: 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1996 and 1995.  Of these seasons, only 2 did not have a U.S. hurricane landfall (2010 and 2000) while 3 of these years had an impressive 3 hurricane landfalls each (2008, 1999, 1998). 

 

and 1996 had Fran.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Season total of 18-8-3 (down from 18-9-4) from CSU today. Above-average risk of major hurricane landfall on the East Coast and Gulf Coast and an above-average risk of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean. ACE of 142 units.

 

Analogues: 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, 2008

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf

[Ed Lizard]

Season total of 18-8-3 (down from 18-9-4) from CSU today. Above-average risk of major hurricane landfall on the East Coast and Gulf Coast and an above-average risk of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean. ACE of 142 units.

 

Analogues: 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, 2008

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf

 

64% and 28% H/MH for Florida, juicy.  I have nothing against Florida, BTW, a relative of mine that lived in the OKX CWA now lives in the MLB CWA (maybe JAX), although she is in an assisted living community, and I suspect it is well built.

[icebreaker5221]

64% and 28% H/MH for Florida, juicy.  I have nothing against Florida, BTW, a relative of mine that lived in the OKX CWA now lives in the MLB CWA (maybe JAX), although she is in an assisted living community, and I suspect it is well built.

 

Kinda surprised by those numbers given their analogs.  4/5 of their analog years did not have a FL hurricane landfall (1966 only one that did). 

[bluewave]

Season total of 18-8-3 (down from 18-9-4) from CSU today. Above-average risk of major hurricane landfall on the East Coast and Gulf Coast and an above-average risk of a major hurricane tracking through the Caribbean. ACE of 142 units.

 

Analogues: 1952, 1966, 1996, 2007, 2008

 

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/aug2013/aug2013.pdf

 

The lower ACE with more stability makes sense compared to what we saw the last  few years. They dropped it from 165 on the June update.

 

As was the case last year, the tropical Atlantic atmosphere appears to be somewhat more stable than normal. The Cooperative Research Institute for the Atmosphere (CIRA) monitors real-time conditions for genesis in the tropical Atlantic, and according to their analysis, vertical instability is somewhat limited this year (Figure 13). Positive deviations from the curve displayed below indicate a more unstable atmosphere than normal. In general, the atmosphere has been more stable than normal since the start of the hurricane season.

 

Figure 13: Vertical instability across the tropical Atlantic since the start of the hurricane season. In general, this year's instability has been lower than normal, indicating a relatively stable atmosphere this year.

It is primarily these mixed signals in the tropical Atlantic which are causing us to reduce our forecast slightly.

 

 

1995 19 11 5 228

1996 13 9 6 166

1997 8 3 1 41

1998 14 10 3 182

1999 12 8 5 177

 2000 15 8 3 119

 2001 15 9 4 110

2002 12 4 2 67

2003 16 7 3 176

2004 15 9 6 227

2005 28 15 7 250

2006 10 5 2 79

2007 15 6 2 74

2008 16 8 5 146

2009 9 3 2 53

2010 19 12 5 165

2011 19 7 4 126

2012 19 10 2 129

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

[Ed Lizard]

I'd like to see what the promised August 2nd two week outlook from CSU shows, but I don't see it on the web page.

 

Indulging my naturally optimistic nature...

 

For some reason, NCEP means/spread page not updating, but a lot of spaghetti showing lowering pressures in the Caribbean, and for a spaghetti chart at 15 days for North American heights, it isn't hard to see many/most members have a Western ridge and Eastern trough predicted, which would seem to indicate any storms in mid August would favor Caribbean to Mexico or perhaps Caribbean to Florida, with any 'Cape Verde' type early developers likely to fish.

 

Comparing 12Z GFS 228 hour 500 mb to Euro ensemble and op 240, there is general agreement on a Western ridge and trough over the Northeast

 

12Z Euro coming in, the retrogression of a bit of the trough and a failed attempt at sub-tropical development in the Gulf still suggested.  More runs than not the last few days have shown that the past few days, but no run has really developed it.  But glass one eight optimistic on a lemon in 6-8 days for the Gulf.  Can't go more than 3/64th on a named tropical/sub-tropical system.

 

EDIT

 

CSU sees a dull two weeks ahead

[Superstorm93]

No named storms from August 2nd until August 16th or so, would be pretty rough to experience. 

 

Hopefully something interesting does occur within that period. 

[andyhb]

CSU sees a dull two weeks ahead

 

Damn that look brutal.

[Ed Lizard]

 I was up to glass 1/8th optimistic on a lemon before JB mentioned this on Twitter (see post 1148 above on this page).  The lack of a single run closing off a low so far, I'm only realistically hoping for a lemon.  But at least one degreed Penn State met has noticed.

 

 

Now that 2 Euro runs in a row try to pinch off a trough near Florida, I am going 1/32nds glass half full that a non-tropical feature will trigger a lemon in the NE Gulf Day 10-12

 

If that doesn't happen, GFS and ensembles suggest an incredibly boring two weeks.

 

 

 

 

You know you're suffering a case of tropical depression when you're posting a slight chance of an Andrea repeat on the 240 h Euro. 

 

Another run of the Euro, another old frontal trough developing a low near Florida and heading it WSW towards Mexico.  May not happen, but 5 runs in a row of something non-tropical in the Gulf.  It is possible because it means no rain in my yard, which is consistent with GFS 16 day depiction of a quarter to half an inch total, or a miserably dry first half of August.  But heat potential (3 days ago, my AOML site is a couple of days off) is 60 to 80 kJ/cm^2, off the Mexican coast, and my natural optimism, you may say that I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. 

 

 

And now...

 

 

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h

Watching gulf next week for development. Remnants of Dorian could pop, but will be taking off to northeast even if they do.

 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

I'm looking at the 15 coolest Augusts since 1950. You can add 1974, 1985, and 1989 to the list of coolest Augusts.

 

Followup: There appears to be a decent sized partial correlation between seasons with cool U.S. Augusts (for which 2013 has a good chance to qualify per forecasts) and increased H as well as MH hit frequencies on the US for 8/1+:

 

- 2.0 US H hits/season for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 1.2 US H hits/season for other 48 Augusts

- 0.9 US major H hits/season for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 0.4 major H US hits/season for other 48 Augusts

- 0.4 LA H hits/season for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 0.2 LA H hits/season for other 48 Augusts

- 0.5 E FL hits/season for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 0.1 E FL hits/season for other 48 Augusts

- % of seasons with 2+ US H hits: 47% for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 27% for other 48 Augusts

- % of seasons with 1+ US major H hits: 53% for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 33% for other 48 Augusts

- % of seasons with 2+ US major H hits: 27% for 15 coolest Augusts vs. only 6% for other 48 Augusts

 

 Conclusion:

  Based on pretty sharp statistical differences and considering respectable dataset sizes underlying these stats, I believe that there is likely a decent sized partial positive correlation between seasons with cool US Augusts and seasons with increased US H and MH hit frequencies for 8/1+ . LA and the eastern FL peninsula (defined as pen. from south tip northward to Jacksonville area) are two areas that have shown the largest increase in 8/1+ activity when Augusts are cool.

 

 These could be important considerations for 2013 since August of 2013 has a good chance to end up being cool.

 

 The stats are based on Augusts from 1950 through 2012.

 

 15 coolest Aug,'s: 1950, 57, 63, 64, 66, 67, 71, 74, 76, 85, 86, 89, 92, 97, 04

 

8/1+ US hit dates for 15 cool August seasons: (two peaks bolded)

 

8/1-10: 3

8/11-20: 3

8/21-31: 4

9/1-10: 6

9/11-20: 4

9/21-30: 4

10/1-10: 1

10/11-20: 3

10/21-31: 1

11/1+: 1

 

13 major H US hit dates for 15 cool Augusts:

8/13, 8/24, 8/26, 9/2, 9/5, 9/8, 9/16, 9/20, 9/21, 9/26, 10/3, 10/14, 10/17

 

**Edit: I don't think it is a coincidence that the only two of the 15 cool August seasons without a US H hit were the two strongest El Ninos of the 15 seasons: 1957 and 1997.

 

**Edit #2: There were 8 seasons of the cool 15 August seasons with at least one major US H hit. A whopping 7 of these 8 seasons with 1+ major US hits had an ASO ONI between 0 and -1.1 and mainly within the -0.2 to -0.8 range, which is where ASO of 2013 is projected. This means that only two of the 9 cool August seasons with an ASO ONI between 0 and -1.1 didn't have a major US H hit (1966 and 1971)! OTOH, about half of the noncool August seasons with an ASO ONI between 0 and -1.1 didn't have a major US H hit.

 

 

 

 All of these indicators suggest a good chance for 2013 to the be the first season since 2005 with a major H hit on the US.

I’m thinking about a 2 in 3 chance is reasonable. Therefore, I'm predicting that there will be 1+ MH hits on the US this season. 

 

 In stark contrast, only one of the six cool August seasons with El Nino had a major US H hit, 2004, which was a weak El Nino.

[Ed Lizard]

Bendy Mod will be back soon.  He picked a good time to miss the tropics, all said.

 

I'd have missed this if not for iCyclone

 

 

Happy 43rd anniversary, Corpus Christi, and Nueces, Aransas and San Patricio Counties.

 

And how many tropical depressions hit El Paso?  How many Atlantic systems ever affect the Mountain Time Zone?

 

Trivia, Nueces is plural of the Spanish word for nuts.  (I'm guessing 'nuez') The Nueces River, which flows through Corpus Christi and Labonte Park (named for the only set of brothers to win the NASCAR Winston (now Sprint) Cup), is named for the pecan trees along its shores.

 

Never stopped there, the one time I wanted, the river was in flood.

 

 

Stout maximum gusts. 161 mph at the airport.

 

 

Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph

 

 

 

[mupawxnut]

Bendy Mod will be back soon. He picked a good time to miss the tropics, all said.

I'd have missed this if not for iCyclone

Happy 43rd anniversary, Corpus Christi, and Nueces, Aransas and San Patricio Counties.

And how many tropical depressions hit El Paso? How many Atlantic systems ever affect the Mountain Time Zone?

Trivia, Nueces is plural of the Spanish word for nuts. (I'm guessing 'nuez') The Nueces River, which flows through Corpus Christi and Labonte Park (named for the only set of brothers to win the NASCAR Winston (now Sprint) Cup), is named for the pecan trees along its shores.

Never stopped there, the one time I wanted, the river was in flood.

Stout maximum gusts. 161 mph at the airport.

Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph

Corpus Christi is way overdue.

[Chinook]

That's got to be one of the strongest winds ever to hit the United States (outside of a tornado).

[Srain]

[Srain]

An area to monitor for potential development in the medium/long range will be the SW Caribbean or the 'Carla Cradle'. The NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis Probabilities have been rather bullish that past several days for that area.

[HurricaneJosh]

That's got to be one of the strongest winds ever to hit the United States (outside of a tornado).

 

I think the gust measured at the Corpus Christi Airport during CELIA (140 kt) is definitely way up there.  I'm not aware of another surface-based, non-topographically-enhanced wind reading from an official station in the USA.  (Readings on mountain peaks and the tops of high-rises don't count.)

[Ed Lizard]

I'd still like to know what the NCEP ensemble probabilities use as a basis for 'TC Genesis', because tracking even 1012 mb low on the GEFS probabilities, I haven't seen 50% or more of the members with closed lows almost any time that graphic has been posted showing those kind of probabilities.

 

If most ensemble petrubations can't close off a 1012 mb low, it is tennis without a net to say the ensembles are showing a 60 or 90% chance of a TC.

[Amped]

I'd still like to know what the NCEP ensemble probabilities use as a basis for 'TC Genesis', because tracking even 1012 mb low on the GEFS probabilities, I haven't seen 50% or more of the members with closed lows almost any time that graphic has been posted showing those kind of probabilities.

 

If most ensemble petrubations can't close off a 1012 mb low, it is tennis without a net to say the ensembles are showing a 60 or 90% chance of a TC.

The Tutt does lift out of that area around 180hrs, so it's possible something tries to spin up. Whatever forms should quickly move over land and get stolen by the east Pac though.

[wxmx]

I give the SW Caribbean a little more chance than the thing in the Gulf in 3-5 days. we are not in SW Caribbean season yet, riding us strong. if it wants to avoid to be a land hugger it has to start to develop as soon as it can, preferably a far from land as it can.

[hurricaneman]

The models are showing a wave with a decent low pressure coming off of Africa between 156hrs and 216hrs and at between 14N and 18N so if it comes off as modeled it the low would weaken over cooler waters to just a wave and possibly redevelop around 45W so definately worth watching in the long run especially if it comes off closer to 14N like the Euro

[am19psu]

lol

[wxmeddler]

lol

 

Translation:

Bendy mod is not amused by the amount of convection in the Atlantic and quite possibly may be saddened by this fact.

[Ed Lizard]

The models are showing a wave with a decent low pressure coming off of Africa between 156hrs and 216hrs and at between 14N and 18N so if it comes off as modeled it the low would weaken over cooler waters to just a wave and possibly redevelop around 45W so definately worth watching in the long run especially if it comes off closer to 14N like the Euro

 

 

It isn't a bad looking disturbance, really, on the GFS, and 500 mb heights suggest it won't fish right away.  But perhaps GaWx or somebody who is familiar with statistics can tell us how many disturbances that far East near 20N actually come anywhere near land.  My gut, not many.  Euro also suggests a high latitude Cape Verde-ish system, but a day or two later, but again, latitude alone suggests it would fish,

 

In a different place, and even more far out in time, many/most of GEFS members see low pressure, a few TCs, out in 12 days in the SW Caribbean, BoC and adjacent Central American and East Pac.  A few days ago, the ensembles were not suggesting anywhere near as much.  The trend is our friend.

 

Bias corrected ensemble mean precip from first 11 members of the 0Z GEFS also look somewhat encouraging.  This seems to generally fit predictions by the smart people/Albany guys about when general upward motion should start becoming favorable in the Western side of the Atlantic tropical basin.  Checking heights, if the reforecast ensembles are correct at hinting at TC genesis in 12 days or so, that would be a Mexican threat, but again, a long way out and we need TCs before we start really worrying bout where they go.  Unless, of course, they start at 20N coming off African and are almost automatic fish.

 

 

 

EDIT TO ADD

 

Mike Ventrice just posted this in EPac thread, but as mentioned above Albany guys holding out mid-month hope.

 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Ed,

 

GFS is going bonkers with this upcoming week over West Africa- Showing a huge uptick in AEW activity as indicated by 700 hPa eddy kinetic energy diagnostics:

 

 

Here's a time longitude plot of rainrates and 850 southerly flow:

 

There is a weak upper-level divergent phase of a CCKW passing W Africa in the upcoming few days (the real show in the 3 sigma suppressed phase that is slated to pass the Atlantic this upcoming week). While I think there's a good chance of increased AEW, I'm not getting too excited just yet with regards to development next week because of that suppressed CCKW phase. I'm keeping my fingers crossed though.

 

 

Interestingly, theres a good deal of enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean associated with an equatorial Rossby wave.

[wxmx]

Like Mike said, things will be quiet for at least a week. Mid/upper low will pinch off the TUTT in the Bahamas in a few days and will try to build a surface reflection while it moves westward trough the GoM. I don't think conditions will be favorable for anything other than a surface trough.

 

Then we have a TW around 44W, this is the one that I think the GFS has been trying to develop in the W Caribbean in the 7-10 day range. I think this holds a little more probabilities than the aforementioned Mid/Upper low, but I still think chances are relatively low for a real TC to develop. But if it does, it can became something.

 

Past day 10, things should improve, and tropical activity should markedly increase, even above climo.

[Amped]

Like Mike said, things will be quiet for at least a week. Mid/upper low will pinch off the TUTT in the Bahamas in a few days and will try to build a surface reflection while it moves westward trough the GoM. I don't think conditions will be favorable for anything other than a surface trough.

 

Then we have a TW around 44W, this is the one that I think the GFS has been trying to develop in the W Caribbean in the 7-10 day range. I think this holds a little more probabilities than the aforementioned Mid/Upper low, but I still think chances are relatively low for a real TC to develop. But if it does, it can became something.

 

Past day 10, things should improve, and tropical activity should markedly increase, even above climo.

 

Still could be a good season if the MJO enhanced phase occurs close to the peak of the season.

[Mike.Ventrice]

Some low-level westerly flow ahead of the approaching suppressed CCKW phase starting to provide a background spin over the western MDR... a tropical wave out there looks to be gainging some cyclonic relative vorticity as in begins to lift northward, as indicated by the tpw loop below... I wonder if the NHC will stamp an invest on this guy? It's got a lot to compete with though and its window only looks like today and tomorrow. The latest European op is the bullest solution on development.

 

[Ed Lizard]

A very, very, very, very long blog post by someone named Eric as I searched the internet, generally of an optimistic nature regarding what most people want to see. (From June)

 

 

Some things, I don't understand.

This guy sounds like he could talk business all day over lunch with HM and Don Sutherland.  Maybe I'm easily impressed with CCKW, IOD, NAO, mountain torques, AMO, PDO, seasonal analogs and MJO, all in single blog posts.

Looking into what mechanism courtesy of a -IOD would force an increase in hurricanes in the Atlantic, which especially under ENSO neutral conditions like what is currently being observed, help to lead to more US hurricane landfalls.

 

 

 

Shouldn't negative IOD mean more Saharan dust and weaker AEWs?   (Be patient, amateur)

 

At any rate, we might want the blue in the Gulf shifted a tad East, but that is a solid glass half full optimistic seasonal forecast.  His August update mentions 1938, and is almost cup overflowing optimistic, and includes the sentence 'Florida to Long Island.