Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[HurricaneJosh]

Interesting METAR, Mark-- thanks for posting it.

It's very clear that the center passed at around 8 pm due to 1) decrease in winds, 2) lowest pressure, and 3) sharp wind shift right after. So you can see clear hints of a remnant eye. Pretty cool.

Also interesting is how broad and flat the pressure gradient is near that center. The cyclone was moving pretty fast, but-- as you point out-- the pressure doesn't change a whole lot for a couple of hours.

[Ellinwood]

Sandy assessment released: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

 

Sandy was a classic late-season hurricane in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The cyclone made landfall as a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) in Jamaica, and as a 100-kt category 3 hurricane in eastern Cuba before quickly weakening to a category 1 hurricane while moving through the central and northwestern Bahamas. Sandy underwent a complex evolution and grew considerably in size while over the Bahamas, and continued to grow despite weakening into a tropical storm north of those islands. The system restrengthened into a hurricane while it moved northeastward, parallel to the coast of the southeastern United States, and reached a secondary peak intensity of 85 kt while it turned northwestward toward the mid-Atlantic states. Sandy weakened somewhat and then made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone near Brigantine, New Jersey with 70-kt maximum sustained winds. Because of its tremendous size, however, Sandy drove a catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines. Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

[Ed Lizard]

^^  If I read the whole PDF correctly, Long Island may have had hurricane winds before Sandy was declared ET.

 

There was one sustained

hurricane-force wind reported: Great Gull Island, New York, between Long Island and Fishers

Island, measured a 1-min mean wind of 65 kt at an elevation of 18 m at 2035 UTC 29 October.

This observation suggests that sustained hurricane-force winds likely occurred onshore over a

limited area while Sandy was still a hurricane.

 

(Declared ET at 2100Z)

[HurricaneJosh]

^^  If I read the whole PDF correctly, Long Island may have had hurricane winds before Sandy was declared ET.

 

There was one sustained

hurricane-force wind reported: Great Gull Island, New York, between Long Island and Fishers

Island, measured a 1-min mean wind of 65 kt at an elevation of 18 m at 2035 UTC 29 October.

This observation suggests that sustained hurricane-force winds likely occurred onshore over a

limited area while Sandy was still a hurricane.

 

(Declared ET at 2100Z)

 

It did. It doesn't change the landfall classification, but it's interesting to note.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Sandy report is excellent-- super-detailed and thorough.  It clearly took a lot of work to pull it together.

 

The LGA sustained wind of 56 kt was impressive-- I knew they'd gusted to hurricane force but didn't know the sustained got that close.  Jones Beach had a solid 48G70.  ISP had 49G78.

 

As I expected, the Cuba landfall was upgraded to 100 kt, making Sandy the second major hurricane of the season.

[HurricaneJosh]

Random, very interesting Sandy factoid:

 

The NHC has declared it a hurricane impact for NY, but not for NJ:  http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

 

The reasoning, as per Chris Landsea (in a tropical eNewsletter):

 

Sandy caused sustained Category 1 hurricane conditions in New York ("NY1").  These conditions during Sandy occurred before the cyclone transitioned to an extratropical cyclone as described in the Tropical Cyclone Report... Sustained hurricane-force winds also almost certainly occurred in New Jersey, although these are believed to have occurred exclusively after Sandy’s extratropical transition.  Thus "NJ1" is not indicated for the U.S. hurricane list.

 

I'm sure some New Jerseyans are not gonna be cool with this.  

[wxtrackercody]

The NHC says Sandy caused $50 billion in damage. The NCDC, however, says this total is much higher, at $75 billion. The NCDC is usually quicker than the NHC, so the latter total is probably more accurate; regardless, Sandy is the second costliest hurricane in Atlantic history.

[HurricaneJosh]

The off season is officially halfway over today! Woo hoo!

I'm not gonna lie and say the first half went by fast. It feels like it's been forever.

[My Weather Today]

Service Change Notice 13-19
National Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
1010 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2013

To:      Subscribers:
         -Family of Services
         -NOAA Weather Wire Service
         -Emergency Manager Weather Information Network
         -NOAAPORT
         Other NWS partners and NWS employees

From:    Mark Tew
         Chief, Marine and Coastal Services Branch

Subject: Elimination of the Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
         Product with the information provided in the
         Tropical Cyclone Update Product Effective May 15, 2013    
        
Effective May 15, 2013, the Tropical Cyclone Position Estimate
(TCE) product issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) will be terminated. The
information previously provided in the TCE will be provided in
the Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU) product.

Effective June 26, 2013, the TCE product issued by WFO Guam will
be terminated. The information previously provided in the TCE
will be provided in a new TCU product issued by WFO Guam.

The TCE provides information regarding the center location of a
tropical cyclone when it nears the coast and the center can be
easily tracked with land-based radar. In recent years, the TCU
was modified and now can include a summary block that conveys not
only the storm's center location but also other key parameters.
The TCU's summary block now contains all of the information
previously conveyed in the TCE, so there is no longer a need for
the TCE. In those situations where a TCE would have been issued,
the NWS will issue a TCU instead. Substituting the TCU for the
TCE provides the same continuous flow of information with the
advantage of a fixed, easily decoded format within a single
product.

The WMO headers and AWIPS IDs that will be discontinued are as
follows:

Basin                      WMO Header         AWIPS ID
Atlantic                   WTNT/51-55/ KNHC   TCEAT/1-5/
Eastern Pacific            WTPZ/51-55/ KNHC   TCEEP/1-5/
Central Pacific            WTPA/51-55/ KHFO   TCECP/1-5/
Western North Pacific      WTPQ/51-55/ PGUM   TCEPQ/1-5/

The WMO headers and AWIPS IDs for the TCU products issued by NHC
and CPHC will remain unchanged and are as follows:

Basin                      WMO Header         AWIPS ID
Atlantic                   WTNT/61-65/ KNHC   TCUAT/1-5/
Eastern Pacific            WTPZ/61-55/ KNHC   TCUEP/1-5/
Central Pacific            WTPA/61-55/ KHFO   TCUCP/1-5/

Currently WFO Guam does not issue TCU products but effective June
26, 2013, it will have the capability.  The following new WMO
Headers and AWIPS IDs will be used by WFO Guam when issuing a TCU
product:

Basin                      WMO Header         AWIPS ID
Western North Pacific      WTPQ/61-65/ PGUM   TCUPQ/1-5/

Partners and users will need to update their system(s) to receive
TCU products from WFO Guam.

If you have comments or questions please contact:

    John Kuhn
    National Weather Service
    Silver Spring, Maryland 20910
    [email protected]
    301-713-1677 extension 121

National Service Change Notices are online at:

  

  http://www.weather.gov/om/notif.htm
 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Hey, thanks for posting that, My Weather Today.    At first I freaked out because I didn't realize that it's basically just being replaced by a better, more-comprehensive product.  

[OSUmetstud]

hi

 

[andyhb]

Good sign for both severe season and cane season if it maintains.

[wxtrackercody]

Looks like another active season...

 

- Negative NAO is currently in place, and is forecast to remain so throughout the period. For those that happen to not know, a negative NAO reduces the strength of the area of high pressure that is typically situated across the north-central Atlantic. A weaker-than-average high pressure causes weaker-than-normal trade winds across the Caribbean and remainder of the hurricane hot spots. This allows for less evaporational cooling and allows sea surface temperatures to warm quite dramatically. We've seen this already in the past two weeks.

 

- SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are currently in the Neutral phase. It's been quite interesting, really, watching the anomalies switch up and down for the past month. Most models show a basic stalemate through the rest of the Spring and into Summer, but the CFSv2 (not really reliable though) shows an El Niño. A potent el niño would probably be hard-pressed to get anyways given the negative PDO signature that has persisted for many years now.

 

- The Atlantic tripole is returning. This is an area of warm waters are the eastern/central Atlantic, cool waters around Newfoundland's latitude, and then warmer waters north of that again. A signature like this focuses the MJO in the Atlantic due to increasing lift.

 

Something we will have to watch out for this season is how vertical instability and the Gulf of Guinea play out. Instability is generally normal at this time acoss much of the western/central Atlantic, but horribly below average across the eastern Atlantic. I realize it's typical for this time of the year, but seriously, it's bad. The Gulf of Guinea remains warm, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but cooler waters in that region would support a farther north ITCZ and more robust tropical waves. I should note that 2011 and 2012 were cool Gulf of Guinea years and 2010 was a warm Gulf of Guinea year; all three featured 19 tropical storms.

What's you guys' thoughts? My very early guess would be 15-19 tropical storms. I'm not comfortable with the strength of these because it definitely hinges on vertical instability. 

[Mike.Ventrice]

Looks like another active season...

 

- Negative NAO is currently in place, and is forecast to remain so throughout the period. For those that happen to not know, a negative NAO reduces the strength of the area of high pressure that is typically situated across the north-central Atlantic. A weaker-than-average high pressure causes weaker-than-normal trade winds across the Caribbean and remainder of the hurricane hot spots. This allows for less evaporational cooling and allows sea surface temperatures to warm quite dramatically. We've seen this already in the past two weeks.

 

- SSTs in the equatorial Pacific are currently in the Neutral phase. It's been quite interesting, really, watching the anomalies switch up and down for the past month. Most models show a basic stalemate through the rest of the Spring and into Summer, but the CFSv2 (not really reliable though) shows an El Niño. A potent el niño would probably be hard-pressed to get anyways given the negative PDO signature that has persisted for many years now.

 

- The Atlantic tripole is returning. This is an area of warm waters are the eastern/central Atlantic, cool waters around Newfoundland's latitude, and then warmer waters north of that again. A signature like this focuses the MJO in the Atlantic due to increasing lift.

 

Something we will have to watch out for this season is how vertical instability and the Gulf of Guinea play out. Instability is generally normal at this time acoss much of the western/central Atlantic, but horribly below average across the eastern Atlantic. I realize it's typical for this time of the year, but seriously, it's bad. The Gulf of Guinea remains warm, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but cooler waters in that region would support a farther north ITCZ and more robust tropical waves. I should note that 2011 and 2012 were cool Gulf of Guinea years and 2010 was a warm Gulf of Guinea year; all three featured 19 tropical storms.

What's you guys' thoughts? My very early guess would be 15-19 tropical storms. I'm not comfortable with the strength of these because it definitely hinges on vertical instability. 

 

I love the discussion here... something that I've been meaning to create is a seasonal predictor of the cold tongue that develops in the Gulf of Guinea during summer. As TropAnalyst stated, this will dictate the mean location of the ITCZ... where a colder than average cold tongue promotes a northward ITCZ shift bringing much needed rains to the Sahel, whereas the warmer cold tongue promotes increased convection over sub-Saharan Africa, and especially the Guinea Highlands. Some research that I never published was with regards to cold vs warm cold tongue in the Gulf of Guinea and tropical cyclogenesis locations. There are far more genesis events near the coast of West Africa during years where the cold tongue is warmer than average, whereas mean genesis is shifted over the western MDR during years with a colder than average cold tongue. 

 

Still gathering my thoughts on the # of storms this year. Something I need to do within the upcoming month.

[icebreaker5221]

Something we will have to watch out for this season is how vertical instability and the Gulf of Guinea play out. Instability is generally normal at this time acoss much of the western/central Atlantic, but horribly below average across the eastern Atlantic. I realize it's typical for this time of the year, but seriously, it's bad. The Gulf of Guinea remains warm, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but cooler waters in that region would support a farther north ITCZ and more robust tropical waves. I should note that 2011 and 2012 were cool Gulf of Guinea years and 2010 was a warm Gulf of Guinea year; all three featured 19 tropical storms.

What's you guys' thoughts? My very early guess would be 15-19 tropical storms. I'm not comfortable with the strength of these because it definitely hinges on vertical instability. 

 

Good points on the vertical instability.  The last three seasons have featured below average instability in the MDR during peak season, which has almost certainly been a limiting factor in preventing deep -80 C cloud tops associated with TCs that have been almost commonplace in every basin except the Atlantic since 2010. 

 

How much of a factor this was in limiting the development of major hurricanes in the MDR both these years is debatable.  I suspect poorly-timed genesis events encountering unfavorable shear and dry air before RI could begin was more often the culprit than not, but I suspect the lack of instability didn't help things. 

 

e.g. 2011: (although 2010 and 2012 were similar)

[Ground Scouring]

Why has there been so much stability over the past few years...mets?

[Ground Scouring]

If Mark E. verifies with his call for a continued seasonal drought in the Midwest (which seems likely), then I would imagine another season of recurves would be expected given the Plains ridge / E trough set-up.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-seasonal-forecast/

[Eyewall2005]

If Mark E. verifies with his call for a continued seasonal drought in the Midwest (which seems likely), then I would imagine another season of recurves would be expected given the Plains ridge / E trough set-up.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-seasonal-forecast/

 

No landfalls maybe till 2025 :0(

[Srain]

Remember all those forecasts early last pre season of El Nino and 10 storms?

[My Weather Today]

Hey, thanks for posting that, My Weather Today. At first I freaked out because I didn't realize that it's basically just being replaced by a better, more-comprehensive product.

Anytime sir.

[Ellinwood]

If Mark E. verifies with his call for a continued seasonal drought in the Midwest (which seems likely), then I would imagine another season of recurves would be expected given the Plains ridge / E trough set-up.

 

http://www.ustornadoes.com/2013/02/28/spring-2013-seasonal-forecast/

No landfalls maybe till 2025 :0(

While I do expect the central U.S. ridge to hold into summer, the pattern starts to break down (at least on the analogs) in early fall just in time for peak 'cane season. Last year under a similar pattern there was still a handful of tropical systems in the Gulf (Debby, Isaac) and that impacted the East Coast (Beryl, Sandy). What was notable is that none of these had strong winds at U.S. landfall (Cat. 1 or weaker) despite the favorable water temps. We'll see what happens this year, but I think we will be similar to last year.

[Eyewall2005]

While I do expect the central U.S. ridge to hold into summer, the pattern starts to break down (at least on the analogs) in early fall just in time for peak 'cane season. Last year under a similar pattern there was still a handful of tropical systems in the Gulf (Debby, Isaac) and that impacted the East Coast (Beryl, Sandy). What was notable is that none of these had strong winds at U.S. landfall (Cat. 1 or weaker) despite the favorable water temps. We'll see what happens this year, but I think we will be similar to last year.

 

Almost seems like in another life time the last time we saw a bonified TC in the atlantic heading westward rather then recurve city we have the last few seasons. Waters are always warm come june in any given season so thats least of concerns. Not a pretty vibe going on in this thread.

[am19psu]

Remember all those forecasts early last pre season of El Nino and 10 storms?

Yeah, last season really busted expectations :/

[wxtrackercody]

It's, and this is just my personal opinion, too early to even try considering what the storm tracks for a particular season will be. It depends on the pattern just before the storm, and most importantly, timing. Even with the central Plains drought in place, it's entirely possible to get a barrage of USA landfalls. It depends on whether or not the East Coast trough is in place to send the storm out to sea (typically) or if an area of high pressure develops across the Northeast/southeastern Canada to steer it into the coastline (or, at least closer). We saw the latter with Hurricane Sandy in October.

 

On another note, the negative NAO sure is helping the eastern Atlantic SSTs skyrocket...we may approach record levels (2010?) at this rate:

 

[Ed Lizard]

Yeah, last season really busted expectations :/

I busted way too low last year, my natural glass half full optimism failed me.  I believed some ENSO forecasts that weren't quite right, mainly.  I had 1997 visions.  Early season activity just made me more 1997.    BTW, last year was meh for me, not for numbers, or even fish, but really super cool MDR "pretty" on satellite storms.  The WPAC 'Chinacane' forum is all about archived tight eye/-80C tops pictures.  Except Okinawa.  I have been to the airport. Pseudo-IMBYism.  Philippines, same thing.

 

And except for videos from a state (Florida) built for hurricanes, I am not a landfall whore.  And I am absolutely almost an anti-weenie now for IMBY hurricanes.  IMBY tropical storms, however, I would welcome.

 

BTW, TropicalAnalyst analysis is why I used to love Joe Bastardi 10 years ago and even was an original AccuWx PPV subscriber (I still pay reduced rates on that, and keep it for 6 hour time frame Euro graphical forecasts of almost every parameter) before he went all global warming bashing all the time.  BTW, I don't necc. disagree with JB on AGW, but I wasn't paying to read that.  He used to make outstanding long term pattern forecasts off ocean temps and the indices.  It is his shorter term forecasts that tend to bust.  (He was awesome on Rita right up until a Cat 4 hurricane didn't come up the Houston ship channel)  Plus a slightly weenieism on worst case scenarios that leak into his forecasts.  I still follow him on Twitter, and it is still half global warming...

 

 

Edit to add- people who told me 1997 was a terrible analog last year were 100% right, except most were for wrong reason.  1997 was *not* before the active period began.  I think there are people who think 2004 or 2005 began the active cycle.

[HurricaneJosh]

To me, 2012 was a dead year.  Sure, there were a ton of named systems, but it was 90% crap.  I mean, c'mon-- 19 storms, with only two barely reaching 100 kt?  Lame.

 

There were a few hawt moments-- like Ernie's Yucatan landfall and Sandy's Cuba landfall-- but that was it.  Looking back, Isaac was basically a big, under-performing irritant-- remarkably like Irene, another loose, low-end Cat 1 that everyone and their grandma chased.

 

It was a dead year.  Most of the activity was atmospheric static.

[am19psu]

Was it 0.5 MHD total? It was something like that. Whatever it was, it stunk.

[HurricaneJosh]

Was it 0.5 MHD total? It was something like that. Whatever it was, it stunk.

 

<Like> x 1,000

 

P.S.  Oh, to answer your question:  yeah, both Mike and Sandy were each majors for one 6-hr period in the final best track data.  (Actually, Sandy was technically at 100 kt a little longer, since it was upgraded at 0525Z.)  Laughable.

[Ed Lizard]

Remembering long ago when Dr. Gray worked alone (or at least wasn't co-author with a doctoral student/former doctural student) and Sahel rainfall and QBO phase mattered in his statistically driven forecasting by history matching and hindcasting, but not understanding mechanics, is QBO phase news a 'HurricaneJosh is happy' or 'HurricaneJosh is saying "grrrrr"' thing.

 

Sahel rainfall, I could actually sort of picture that...

[am19psu]

Remembering long ago when Dr. Gray worked alone (or at least wasn't co-author with a doctoral student/former doctural student) and Sahel rainfall and QBO phase mattered in his statistically driven forecasting by history matching and hindcasting, but not understanding mechanics, is QBO phase news a 'HurricaneJosh is happy' or 'HurricaneJosh is saying "grrrrr"' thing.

 

Sahel rainfall, I could actually sort of picture that...

Paging OkPowdah to the tropical thread. OkPowdah to the tropical thread, please.