HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 If this overall pattern holds i think the southeast could be in for a long season. Thoughts? Me likey. That's my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Does anyone have a link to old SSTA data from the 1880s to 1947? I am doing some research on ENSO. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Does anyone have a link to old SSTA data from the 1880s to 1947? I am doing some research on ENSO. Thanks. Kinda OT but try this: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 The 10-day Euro and GFS runs are bumming out a little. The GFS showed something interestin' in the Gulf like two or three runs ago-- now it's showing nothing. Blah. P.S. I know, I know-- it's only June. But my expectations are gonna really jack up come July-- so somethin' good better cook up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 Someone say somethin' encouraging, please. And not one o' them fancy posts with coloring-book pics and lots o' acronyms-- just some plain English. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Someone say somethin' encouraging, please. And not one o' them fancy posts with coloring-book pics and lots o' acronyms-- just some plain English. Thx. Snowflake raising his max landfall prediction to a Cat 4 in Miami/Dade wasn't enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 Snowflake raising his max landfall prediction to a Cat 4 in Miami/Dade wasn't enough for you? Well, that certainly helps. But I was hoping for some hope Re: the next ten days. It's just looking so dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Early July looks like a 2003 analog for MJO entering phase 2 and a U.S. Eastern Trough at the same time. So I like the idea of a Western Caribbean development during July either tracking west into Mexico or maybe coming further north like Claudette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Josh it's going to be worth the wait..patience my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 It was on my way to my 99 year old grandmother's funeral in Marshfield, MA, but I got to fly in a prop American Eagle Commuter plane in the outer bands of Claudette. Raining already at the airport when we left. Remarkably un-turbulent flight, and awesome break from full clouds to complete clear halfway to DFW. But July is usually a slow month. 2003 and 2005 seasons with July Gulf activity, special treats. On a positive note, while TCHP is almost negative off Galveston (and that is positive as well), decent heat potential comes close to Tamps. and South Texas, and we all appreciated Dolly, and comes fairly close to the Louisiana coast. Still some work needed for the next Charley, however. Doing my part to keep Josh cheerful without irrational exuberance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Encouraging?The CFS has completely flipped from its previous July forecast for very high pressures and shows a bullseye of lower-than-average pressures from the Main Development Region westward to the Greater Antilles and then into Florida or the Gulf Coast. Top is latest, bottom was previous forecast for sea level pressures 700mb heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Encouraging? The CFS has completely flipped from its previous July forecast for very high pressures and shows a bullseye of lower-than-average pressures from the Main Development Region westward to the Greater Antilles and then into Florida or the Gulf Coast. Top is latest, bottom was previous forecast for sea level pressures. It is also noteworthy that the Euro ensemble mean as well as the GEFS have trended to much lower pressure anomolies across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf during the early July timeframe. The lag time for any MJO/KW activity coincides rather well with the period just beyond the July 4th Holiday weekend. My hunch is we will begin to see increased global model support for TC genesis during the second full week of July extending into the mid July timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Encouraging? The CFS has completely flipped from its previous July forecast for very high pressures and shows a bullseye of lower-than-average pressures from the Main Development Region westward to the Greater Antilles and then into Florida or the Gulf Coast. Top is latest, bottom was previous forecast for sea level pressures. What about the August-September time frame? Also, please post the link to the CFS MSLP forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The March-April NAO value tends to correlate positively with the August-September 500-mb heights over southern Greenland. Since 1995, the NAO was ≤ -1.0 in March and ≥ -1.5 in April of the following years: 2001, 2005, 2006, and 2010 (along with 2013). The August-September heights were as follows. Note the strongly negative, west-based -NAO leading to a weak trough over the upper Midwest with enhanced ridging just off the Southeast coast. This would promote 2005-like tracks across South FL and thence northward into the Central Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 What about the August-September time frame? Also, please post the link to the CFS MSLP forecasts. It's the mean forecast for the next month specifically, and those are actually 700mb heights and not MSLP It is interesting to note that the CFS is focusing a very healthy amount of precip where that trail of 700mb heights ends right over the south east US. It's a nice healthy forecast and also shows a very nice SSTA configuration with an impressive tripole in the Atlantic, but there does appear to be a rather quick warm-up of the Nino 3 and 3.4 regions that I believe is a little unrealistic. There hasn't really been a trend with regards to the CFS looking more favorable for an active July in its forecasts, but rather a relatively abrupt shift. The ECMWF ensembles however do look like they are in fact trending towards a more favorable pattern for a decently active month of July and the monthly forecast has some really healthy waves making it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean/GOM. Overall, I think the GFS will gradually adjust it's MJO forecast, thus swinging things into phases 2 and possibly 3 for the next 10-14 days. I would expect the models to start sniffing out our next tropical cyclone possibly as soon as the end of this week as the CMC is already getting somewhat excited for another GOM storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Thanks for responding to snowflake and correcting me. 0z CMC has a hurricane in the Gulf in 10 days. Headed for Texas. 0z GFS is boring and has a broad low-pressure area headed farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 The longer range seems to imply a possible Cape Verde system around July 10th or so with the general track straight west towards a Caribbean cruiser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Early July looks like a 2003 analog for MJO entering phase 2 and a U.S. Eastern Trough at the same time. So I like the idea of a Western Caribbean development during July either tracking west into Mexico or maybe coming further north like Claudette. Josh it's going to be worth the wait..patience my friend On a positive note, while TCHP is almost negative off Galveston (and that is positive as well), decent heat potential comes close to Tamps. and South Texas, and we all appreciated Dolly, and comes fairly close to the Louisiana coast. Still some work needed for the next Charley, however. Doing my part to keep Josh cheerful without irrational exuberance. Encouraging? The CFS has completely flipped from its previous July forecast for very high pressures and shows a bullseye of lower-than-average pressures from the Main Development Region westward to the Greater Antilles and then into Florida or the Gulf Coast. Top is latest, bottom was previous forecast for sea level pressures 700mb heights It is also noteworthy that the Euro ensemble mean as well as the GEFS have trended to much lower pressure anomolies across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf during the early July timeframe. The lag time for any MJO/KW activity coincides rather well with the period just beyond the July 4th Holiday weekend. My hunch is we will begin to see increased global model support for TC genesis during the second full week of July extending into the mid July timeframe. The August-September heights were as follows. Note the strongly negative, west-based -NAO leading to a weak trough over the upper Midwest with enhanced ridging just off the Southeast coast. This would promote 2005-like tracks across South FL and thence northward into the Central Gulf Coast. There hasn't really been a trend with regards to the CFS looking more favorable for an active July in its forecasts, but rather a relatively abrupt shift. The ECMWF ensembles however do look like they are in fact trending towards a more favorable pattern for a decently active month of July and the monthly forecast has some really healthy waves making it all the way across the Atlantic and into the Caribbean/GOM. Overall, I think the GFS will gradually adjust it's MJO forecast, thus swinging things into phases 2 and possibly 3 for the next 10-14 days. I would expect the models to start sniffing out our next tropical cyclone possibly as soon as the end of this week as the CMC is already getting somewhat excited for another GOM storm. Thanks for responding to snowflake and correcting me. 0z CMC has a hurricane in the Gulf in 10 days. Headed for Texas. 0z GFS is boring and has a broad low-pressure area headed farther north. The longer range seems to imply a possible Cape Verde system around July 10th or so with the general track straight west towards a Caribbean cruiser. Thanks, guys, for the encouraging banter. It cheered me up a li'l. That Canadian feature is hawt. And I keep reminding myself that the Canadian isn't as crazy as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 12z CMC takes a 981 millibar hurricane into the Mississippi-Alabama border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 12z CMC takes a 981 millibar hurricane into the Mississippi-Alabama border. Why are we mentioning the Canadian in a tropical thread? The GFS has a badly sheared mess exiting out of the Bay of Campeche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 That Canadian feature is hawt. And I keep reminding myself that the Canadian isn't as crazy as it once was. No, it still does horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 No, it still does horrible. I assume FNG is the NavGem? Not great, but we can't really call it the LOLgaps, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I assume FNG is the NavGem? Not great, but we can't really call it the LOLgaps, either. Yeah the FNG is the NavGEM, although it seems that it still has a few issues in the BL as well as the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 No, it still does horrible. Thanks for that... the "improvement" of the CMC is pretty negligible considering that all of that numerical guidance has improved with upgrades and other enhancements over the last several years. All that was improved was the vertical and horizontal resolution. The microphysics and cumulus schemes were not upgraded in the last iteration of the CMC. Despite the improved resolution, microphysics and cumulus parameterizations are what have kept the CMC from being a better model in the tropics. Don't look for that to change if they haven't been modified from last year's version of the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 OK, OK, sorry for suggesting the CMC was improved. I thought it was because it's not cranking out six Cat 5s in every run, but whatevz. Forget I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 OK, OK, sorry for suggesting the CMC was improved. I thought it was because it's not cranking out six Cat 5s in every run, but whatevz. Forget I said it. Your mistake was mentioning the CMC. The weather mobs feed on the poor souls who dare mention the CMC, NAVGEM, NAM, DGEX, etc. etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 GFS op showing some odd behavior over the Atlantic. My feelings are that the model may be overdoing a westward propagating Rossby wave response to a strong atmospheric convectively-coupled Kelvin wave passage over South America. You can see in the forecast mode a strong negative VP200 anomaly that propagates back towards the west with time once the Kelvin wave (black-blue contours) passes South America. As a result, the model is developing enhanced upper-level convergence over the Atlantic, which then progresses back towards the west with time. This feature would probably explain the enhanced vertical wind shear over the Atlantic in the forecast... I'm not sure if I buy it yet. The last time I saw something very similar was in 2010 right before Danielle, Earl, and Fiona developed. Now the time of year won't support a big event in TC activity over the Atlantic like in August of 2010, but it's something to keep an eye on once the CCKW passes over South America and the model can begin to correct itself (if it's misinterpreting the CCKW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Your mistake was mentioning the CMC. The weather mobs feed on the poor souls who dare mention the CMC, NAVGEM, NAM, DGEX, etc. etc. I was commenting on another post. But we can beat this dead horse for another page-- no prob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I am beginning to think that the STR is going to be so strong heading into July, that any tropical development will be pushed further south like Barry was. The Euro is showing this scenario continuing. I think that this is a result of the more positive NAO this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like there was some sassycane action while I was gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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