wxtrackercody Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 NHC 00z ATCF update has its coordinates here, though I'd argue it's a bit farther north than that based on satellite loops. Time will tell. At any rate, a 30% mandarin is playing it conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I'm going to out on a limb (not really though) and say this is very nearly a tropical depression, based on satellite loops and the recent microwave pass. Whether the NHC classifies this or not in the absence of recon is up in the air. EDIT: Brown disagrees completely though... A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EASTERNHONDURAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE CURRENTLY NOSIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BEFORE IT MOVES INLANDOVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. THISDISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OFDEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONSOF HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THEYUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 That's interesting in that the Euro did OK on the June update last year. OLD.gif 2012.png Not saying the models are on la-la-land, since it's well known their rather poor performance during spring...but they have been a bit too warm bullish lately. OTOH we are past spring, and there's a little less divergence in the plumes distribution for June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Still looks like a weak-to-moderate TS near or north of Veracruz to me. Pretty standard quick spin up type BoC system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Still looks like a weak-to-moderate TS near or north of Veracruz to me. Pretty standard quick spin up type BoC system Worthy of an I-Cyclone practice run? Even if it doesn't become a hurricane, shake the cobwebs off, test new systems, work the bugs? Has to be more exciting than, say, TS Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 There might be some interest next week as well as lower pressures in the Western Gulf and a mid level low moves W, S of New Orleans beneath the Ridge toward Texas/Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 There might be some interest next week as well as lower pressures in the Western Gulf and a mid level low moves W, S of New Orleans beneath the Ridge toward Texas/Mexico. I must say, using GEFS spaghetti just as a general indicator, they have backed off in the number of members that show anything of interest before the end of June. 93L was strongly suggested at almost two weeks in advance by the GEFS, so it does have some value. I, personally, an waiting for early July based on what I have seen on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Not saying the models are on la-la-land, since it's well known their rather poor performance during spring...but they have been a bit too warm bullish lately. OTOH we are past spring, and there's a little less divergence in the plumes distribution for June. It would be a departure from recent years which have featured lower pressures across the basin. The last year with more extensive above normal high pressures was 2003. That JAS Nino 3.4 was +0.4 on the updated CPC data set. So sometimes all you need is neutral warm approaching weak Nino for an atmospheric response. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 0z Euro and 06z GFS are very much on top of each other wrt 93L. I expect some continued organization up to landfall in about 4-6 hours, then getting into the GoM very close to Cd del Carmen and then slowly move WNW to NW up to landfall around 21N as TS Barry in 3-4 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 While the topic is on the ENSO, I had a question. After SSTs in the equatorial Pacific warm to El Nino threshold, is there is a lag time in the atmosphere? I've seen a lot of pro. meteorologists say there isn't one, but I've also seen many say there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 and by the way... invest_RENUMBER_al932013_al022013.ren 17-Jun-2013 14:36 1.4K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 it's now 02L on the NRL page... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220131100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVELCIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVERTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEPCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HASDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OFBELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FORINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELYIF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY ASINDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITYFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWAN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT INA COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARDSPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THENORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ANDECMWF TRACKS.THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULDCAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ANDEASTERN MEXICO.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 17/1500Z 16.2N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH12H 18/0000Z 16.9N 89.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND24H 18/1200Z 18.0N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND36H 19/0000Z 18.8N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER48H 19/1200Z 19.3N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER72H 20/1200Z 19.7N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER96H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Strongest convection appears to be confined well to the south of the center, near where the wave-trough axis is interacting with a sea breeze. Core is completely non-existent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 While the topic is on the ENSO, I had a question. After SSTs in the equatorial Pacific warm to El Nino threshold, is there is a lag time in the atmosphere? I've seen a lot of pro. meteorologists say there isn't one, but I've also seen many say there is. Analyses I've done of the negative correlation of SST anomaly of Nino 3.4 (which is used to designate El Nino) and MDR activity suggests no lag normally. Furthermore, if anything, there seems to often be the opposite! Here is my theory about this: the drop in SOI tends to lead the 3.4 SST anom. rise by about 2 months or so on avg. per my analyses. Being that the SOI is a pretty decent indicator of the present atmospheric patterns in the eq. Pacific and that it tends to lead the SST changes, it is intuitive to me that a -SOI could negatively influence the MDR activity fairly quickly and not wait the entire two or so months for the SST's to react upward. Edit: The SOI has predominantly remained solidly positive. As long as that remains the case, the chance for El Nino developing this fall will remain low imo. I'll be following it as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 What was the name of that tropical storm a few years ago that kept hitting Florida over and over and over and looked terrible on radar and sat. presentations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 What was the name of that tropical storm a few years ago that kept hitting Florida over and over and over and looked terrible on radar and sat. presentations? Fay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I'm surprised by the lack of discussion on our second Atlantic Tropical Depression. Except for land interaction, it seems rather well organzied. I wouldn't be surprised if we end up getting Barry out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VodkaLass Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 ...DEPRESSION NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 88.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BELIZE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATER ON TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS... ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Seems like the poorly organized center is moving onshore according to the Belize Radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The NHC isn't optimistic at all about this system reaching the Bay of Campeche. Would be a nice storm if it could gain some latitude. Oh well. Analyses I've done of the negative correlation of SST anomaly of Nino 3.4 (which is used to designate El Nino) and MDR activity suggests no lag normally. Furthermore, if anything, there seems to often be the opposite! Here is my theory about this: the drop in SOI tends to lead the 3.4 SST anom. rise by about 2 months or so on avg. per my analyses. Being that the SOI is a pretty decent indicator of the present atmospheric patterns in the eq. Pacific and that it tends to lead the SST changes, it is intuitive to me that a -SOI could negatively influence the MDR activity fairly quickly and not wait the entire two or so months for the SST's to react upward. Edit: The SOI has predominantly remained solidly positive. As long as that remains the case, the chance for El Nino developing this fall will remain low imo. I'll be following it as usual. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 With the Tropical Atlantic more stable, I would probably look closer to the Western Caribbean for development as the MJO is forecast to move into phase 1 in early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 With the Tropical Atlantic more stable, I would probably look closer to the Western Caribbean for development as the MJO is forecast to move into phase 1 in early July. NEW.gif ts_al_tat_THDV.gif f384.jpg I take it the super-imposed waves on the above instability versus season (even if we're clearly lagging behind the seasonal mean curve, which probably is not an encouraging factor for ACE) have a reason. I see bigger dips that appear nearly monthly, which I'm guessing could be MJO related, and smaller amplitude waves that seem to occur about twice a month. Smart people please advise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Thanks for your thoughts.. with regards to the state of ENSO, I'd be careful here. While the state of the MJO is to favor increased lower tropospheric easterly flow over the East Pacific which should force some upwelling in the East Pac and bring some colder waters to the surface, it will likely just be a sub-seasonal variation. If you look sub-surface, a downwelling ocean Kelvin wave is currently bringing warm waters from the West Pac warm pool towards the East, acting to deepen the thermocline over the central Pacific. Much of the negative SST anomalies sub-surface have been erased and are trending warmer than average. Further, the current location of the MJO would favor enhanced low-level westerlies on the equator (>15 m/s totals!) I'm expecting the warming trend to continue, and eventually bring some positive SST skin anomalies to the East Pacific with time. There are often times where down-welling oceanic Kelvin waves couple with atmospheric convection and amplify the process. We are in a time where the atmosphere is superimposed with the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave and could be one of those times where the ocean is talking with the atmosphere. With regards to the current state of the Global Wind Oscillation, we did see a pretty good drop into negative AAM values, which is consistent with a La Nina type atmosphere. However, recently atmospheric angular momentum is back on the rise. I'm not really sure if AAM will continue to trend up, or will plunge back down, but the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave phased (temporarily) with the MJO suggests there is potential for the gradual increase of AAM. To be seen! I agree that the atmosphere-ocean is nicely coupled right now and the small-scale waves have amplified the wave 1 response in the divergence anomalies. There has also been a downwelling KW moving across the equatorial Pacific ahead of this West Pacific/Indonesian enhancement (the IOD-ENSO system did tighten up which led to this coupling along with the downwelling +QBO regime). But why would this increasing OHC period be any different than the one during the spring which warmed the ENSO regions for a while before cooling again? I guess what I'm getting at is I don't feel a strong enough El Niño-like warming will be able to develop to be much of a factor shear-wise this season. If we do warm up, it could actually increase the potential for a central gulf-Fl hit, as snowflake alluded to in the original post. In fact, a warm neutral ASO with an all around negative Indian Ocean signal in both dipoles, warm Atlantic and neutral PDO could be quite the combination for landfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 The Euro seems to have the correct idea this month from the April forecast for higher pressures north of the Caribbean with the more positive NAO this June than recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Will probably have to watch the Atlantic in early July for development. GFS, CMC, and ECMWF are already developing cyclones in the eastern Pacific by the end of the month. GFS, as usual, is probably overdoing the intensity of the MJO pulse. But it's still strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 HRD re-analysis of 1941-1945 is in! The Atlantic basin hurricane seasons of 1941 to 1945 have been officially reanalyzed. The revised database is available here. Four new tropical storms were discovered and added into the database for this five year period. Notable hurricanes in these years include the 1944 Great Atlantic Hurricane, which affected North Carolina, the mid-Atlantic states, and New England, killing 390 people. This hurricane was downgraded from a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 3 at landfall in New York to a Category 2. Also in 1944 a late season Caribbean hurricane that struck Cuba causing 315 fatalities has been upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 major hurricane at landfall. Additionally, in September 1945 a major hurricane struck Homestead, Florida - bearing many similarities in size, track, and impact to 1992's Hurricane Andrew - and was upgraded from a Category 3 to a Category 4 at landfall. Details of the data and methodology of the reanalysis is available here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 It's actually quite comical how poor the GFS is (and has been) at predicting the MJO ECMWF looks much more reasonable. I'm very interested to hear what Mr. Ventrice has to say about the upcoming MJO wave, but the models are definitely hinting at a rather decent pulse moving through. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw two or so tropical cyclones form in the early to mid July period, with one of them possibly being a nice red meat cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Not just a matter of initialization or lower resolution on the GFS ensemble super MJO amplification, as agreement between members is quite high. Those are the usual reasons given for performance differences vis-à-vis the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 It's actually quite comical how poor the GFS is at predicting the MJO "Super Amplification" NCPE_phase_21m_small 17_40_44.gif ECMWF looks much more reasonable. I'm very interested to hear what Mr. Ventrice has to say about the upcoming MJO wave, but the models are definitely hinting at a rather decent pulse moving through. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw two or so tropical cyclones form in the early to mid July period, with one of them possibly being a nice red meat cyclone. ECMF_phase_51m_small 17_40_44.gif That may be a significant part of why the Euro does so much better in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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