Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[Superstorm93]

Beginnings of our possible short-lived and latitude starved next system. 

 

Nice TPW surge associated with this wave.

 

 

 

Might see a quick depression in a few days before this gets all tangled up with Central America. 

 

[Amped]

Those BOC W carribien storms are hard to see on models, because there is always a semi permanent heat low over the Yucatan that resembles a weak TC on models. Tropical Wave looks a little far south to form in the Atlantic, Euro forms a storm in the EPAC with it.

[Superstorm93]

Lame Lemon 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE WAVE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It'll be interesting to see how far north that upper-level trough near Bermuda can pull our lemon. Blake seems pretty bullish in its progression into the northwestern Caribbean Sea as opposed to over the brunt of Central America. I wouldn't be surprised to see this becoming a named storm in the Bay of Campeche, and we should be careful in underestimating it. Anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable shear environment...coupled with the curvature of the coastline, something could spin up quickly. Arlene 2011 is a good analogue...maybe not as far north.

[hurricaneman]

It'll be interesting to see how far north that upper-level trough near Bermuda can pull our lemon. Blake seems pretty bullish in its progression into the northwestern Caribbean Sea as opposed to over the brunt of Central America. I wouldn't be surprised to see this becoming a named storm in the Bay of Campeche, and we should be careful in underestimating it. Anticyclone aloft should provide a favorable shear environment...coupled with the curvature of the coastline, something could spin up quickly. Arlene 2011 is a good analogue...maybe not as far north.

 

 

Bret 2005 could be an analog, it barely had enough time to form but indeed became a minimal tropical storm

[HurricaneJosh]

Bret 2005 could be an analog, it barely had enough time to form but indeed became a minimal tropical storm

I'll take Bret 1999-- thx.

[Floydbuster]

I'll take Bret 1999-- thx.

 

Hurricane Bret was quite a memorable 15-minutes of fame hurricane. It was hours away from a high-end Cat 4 landfall near Corpus Christi or Brownsville, then became a low-end Cat 3 landfall in the middle of nowhere and was quickly forgotten.

[HurricaneJosh]

Hurricane Bret was quite a memorable 15-minutes of fame hurricane. It was hours away from a high-end Cat 4 landfall near Corpus Christi or Brownsville, then became a low-end Cat 3 landfall in the middle of nowhere and was quickly forgotten.

Well said. Everyone forgets how close it came to being a nuclear event.

I chased it and have very fond memories of it.

[Srain]

Nice convective burst offshore of Honduras overnight. Perhaps an invest later today is in the making.

[Eyewall2005]

ok either the euro has gone nuts or we aint having much of a season with this very hostile look to it. Hopefully some promets will make some sense of all this.

 

[Ground Scouring]

There almost appears to be a weak low-level center moving inland near Cape Gracias a Dios based upon satellite imagery after 12Z...and surface data as of 12Z show 20-kt ENE winds near the Swan Islands and at Puerto Cabezas. The center location concurs nicely with the mid-level rotation and is nicely positioned in a confluence zone with just enough low-level convergence to begin developing away from the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone. Aside from land interaction, everything else favors development...just look at the outstanding outflow pattern and anticyclonic flow at 200-300 mb.

[Superstorm93]

Well it's officially 93L, but the ATCF ftp site seems to be having issues and hasn't generated a file for it yet. Early model guidance shows no chance of this getting any time over water and the ECMWF develops 93L in the east pacific.

Our Lame Lemon may look pretty decent now, but this vacation in Central America and Mexico will definitely kill it's chances of becoming anything interesting in the Atlantic.

[Eyewall2005]

bla..heavy rains for CA.

 

Were's august?

 

post 554 any promets on the very inconsistent euro mslp?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

30% mandarin. 

 

DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE COASTS OF
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IF THE DISTURBANCE
EMERGES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

[Srain]

So much for that lame Lemon call. With these monsoonal gyre systems, there can be a lot of uncertainty and clearly the models have been keying in on a very broad low that stretches from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Actually conditions may improve aloft with a nice anti cyclonic outflow assisting in ventilating this disturbance. RECON has been tasked to investigate if need be as well. The globals do increase deep tropical moisture across the Western NATL Basin during the next week to 10 days. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a lot of festering vorticity across the Ithumus of Tehuatepec in the days ahead.

[Ed Lizard]

ok either the euro has gone nuts or we aint having much of a season with this very hostile look to it. Hopefully some promets will make some sense of all this.

 

That is depressing.  I was so hoping the 2004 Florida analogs people were throwing around would bear fruit.

[Ground Scouring]

(Sarcasm) 

 

Some more good vibes on the season...

 

The CFSv2 500mb analog package courtesy of Levi Cowan is just about the exact opposite of what you would want to see for an active Atlantic season. In fact, with the ECMWF showing an extremely unfavorable MSLP forecast for the meat of the season, I'd say things have pretty much done a complete 180 from March when some folks thought that a hyper-active season was in store. 

 

Named storms for each season shown here: 

 

2007: 15 

1989: 11

1992:  7

1984: 13

1970: 10

1948:  9

1967:  6

1966: 12

1982:  6

2009:  9

 

 

It's the CFSv2 though, so really not that concerned yet. 

This reads more like a typical Icepussweenie model-reader's post than an informed stab at the tropics.

 

It's about LANDFALLS and QUALITY, not numbers. Check out the meaty landfall history of most of those years, especially in the Yucatán and the W Gulf: Inez '66, Beulah '67, Celia '70, and Dean '07. Plus there were quite a few big or respectable SE hits, Diana '84 (nearly a Cat-4 disaster if not for the rapid weakening), Hugo '89, Andrew '92. Nearly every one of those years listed, other than 2009, had more decent landfalls combined than did 2009-2012...and with only 23 storms more than in 2009-2012 (66 named systems). Plus, nearly all of those years had a strong, west-based Bermuda High which is a BIG difference than the constant East-Coast trough / Plains ridging in 2010-2012. There will likely be fewer than 19 storms this year, but with far fewer recurves and more high-quality threats to the SE U.S. and the Gulf.

 

Oh, and 1948 had, according to preliminary reanalysis, a Cat-4 hitting SW FL, then a strong Cat-2 a few weeks later. I'm sure Josh would rather take one sub-922-mb storm into Miami Beach than a dozen more name-filling, semi-tropical slop-gyres into Morehead Beach or Sandy Hook / E Canada / fish land.

[Ground Scouring]

That is depressing.  I was so hoping the 2004 Florida analogs people were throwing around would bear fruit.

2004 only had 15 NS. Most of the big years for FL, historically, have had 15 NS or fewer, with the big hits like 1926, 1928, 1941, and 1945 coming in neutral-warm seasons. (I probably know more about FL hurricane history than anyone except Josh and a handful, ha.  ) This year looks likely to have about 15 NS, barring an unexpected Niño. Many aspects of this season will come down to the situation with ENSO and the tropical forcing.

[Superstorm93]

The CFSv2 500mb analog package courtesy of Levi Cowan is the opposite of what you would want to see for an active Atlantic season (talking in terms of actual numbers) 

 

As stated, it's about quality over quantity. Few of the 57 storms over the past three years were actually memorable.  

 

Just for entertainment purposes, named storms for each season shown here with the highlights as well: 

 

2007: 15 (Cat 5 Dean And Felix) 

1989: 11 (Hugo) 

1992:  7  (Andrew) 

1984: 13 (Hurricane Diana) 

1970: 10 (Texas Celia and Ella) 

1948:  9  (SW Florida Hurricanes Seven and Eight) 

1967:  6  (Cat 5 Beulah) 

1966: 12 (Hurricane Inez) 

1982:  6  

2009:  9

 

 

This does not represent what I believe will happen and this wasn't supposed to be taken as some "icepussweenie" post as someone so kindly pointed out. 

 

(  Edited to make this less depressing and snowflake friendly) 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Those analogues are the closest, but still not really similar in terms of the pattern. We've seen a lot of ridging from 40-60N this year, and the analogues don't really seem to stress this. This also (as far as I'm aware) doesn't take into consideration the ENSO or SST pattern.

[HurricaneJosh]

This reads more like a typical Icepussweenie model-reader's post than an informed stab at the tropics.

 

It's about LANDFALLS and QUALITY, not numbers. Check out the meaty landfall history of most of those years, especially in the Yucatán and the W Gulf: Inez '66, Beulah '67, Celia '70, and Dean '07. Plus there were quite a few big or respectable SE hits, Diana '84 (nearly a Cat-4 disaster if not for the rapid weakening), Hugo '89, Andrew '92. Nearly every one of those years listed, other than 2009, had more decent landfalls combined than did 2009-2012...and with only 23 storms more than in 2009-2012 (66 named systems). Plus, nearly all of those years had a strong, west-based Bermuda High which is a BIG difference than the constant East-Coast trough / Plains ridging in 2010-2012. There will likely be fewer than 19 storms this year, but with far fewer recurves and more high-quality threats to the SE U.S. and the Gulf.

 

Oh, and 1948 had, according to preliminary reanalysis, a Cat-4 hitting SW FL, then a strong Cat-2 a few weeks later. I'm sure Josh would rather take one sub-922-mb storm into Miami Beach than a dozen more name-filling, semi-tropical slop-gyres into Morehead Beach or Sandy Hook / E Canada / fish land.

You're a little harsh to Superstorm, but I agree with you.

Personally, I don't give a crap about whether the season is hyperactive or not. The last couple of hyperactive seasons really sucked. Like you suggested, a season with fewer storms and a strong, W-based Bermuda high is going to yield much for interesting scenarios-- especially for the W Caribbean and W Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

The Mandarin looks pretty hawt-- definitely has the cyclone outflow pattern goin' on. Too bad it's so close to land.

[bluewave]

ok either the euro has gone nuts or we aint having much of a season with this very hostile look to it. Hopefully some promets will make some sense of all this.

 

 

That's interesting in that the Euro did OK on the June update last year.

 

 

[Superstorm93]

The Mandarin looks pretty hawt-- definitely has the cyclone outflow pattern goin' on. Too bad it's so close to land.

 

Could have been a rather interesting early season system to watch if it hadn't been so latitude starved

 

[HurricaneJosh]

Could have been a rather interesting early season system to watch if it hadn't been so latitude starved

Totally. It's pretty hawt. Kinda bummed about it. What a waste of an awesome outflow pattern. Really looks like it's set to go.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/43/lre.png

 

Station is reporting northwesterly winds over northern Nicaragua, low-level flow suggests southeasterly winds feeding into the eastern side of the circulation, turning more westerly on the north side. Looks like a low-level circulation is forming, and forming farther north than expected.

[HurricaneJosh]

Station is reporting northwesterly winds over northern Nicaragua, low-level flow suggests southeasterly winds feeding into the eastern side of the circulation, turning more westerly on the north side. Looks like a low-level circulation is forming, and forming farther north than expected.

That would be cool, actually.

[hurricaneman]

a weaker version of 2010 Alex is possible, just a little farther south in the BOC, if far enough North in the BOC if shear stays low I wouldnt be suprised if it became a high end tropical storm with a core but thats the most I would expect

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Upper-level divergence is centered almost exactly where the low-level center seems to be organizing. It may be just a tad farther west. Either way, this is significant in the fact that it gets more water before the Yucatan and more water in the Bay of Campeche. Both mean we'll probably see a stronger system.

 

[phil882]

So much for that lame Lemon call. With these monsoonal gyre systems, there can be a lot of uncertainty and clearly the models have been keying in on a very broad low that stretches from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. Actually conditions may improve aloft with a nice anti cyclonic outflow assisting in ventilating this disturbance. RECON has been tasked to investigate if need be as well. The globals do increase deep tropical moisture across the Western NATL Basin during the next week to 10 days. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a lot of festering vorticity across the Ithumus of Tehuatepec in the days ahead.

 

 

This is definitely not a monsoon gyre, but merely just a tropical wave that is moving westward across Central America. The low has developed along the wave axis and there really isn't any evidence of a closed large scale circulation. Instead we have well established easterlies into the East Pacific. Sorry to jump on this, its just that its easy to say every disturbance that develops in and near Central America came from a broad gyre like disturbance. However, you need a given set of conditions in order for a large system (similar to what happened with Andrea) to truly fit the bill. Unfortunately we are heading into the period of the year (July/August) where widespread easterlies dominate the Caribbean and East Pacific, which makes it difficult to get that wind reversal in the East Pacific (from easterly to westerly low-level flow) that is typically a key ingredient for gyre like TCG.

 

With that said, if this wave can gain some latitude (not sure it will) it has a chance for a quick like TCG similar to Bret (2005), Jose (2005), or Marco (2008) as you guys have been alluding to. However, with the well established mid-level ridge to its north, its unlikely to be able to spend much time over water in the Atlantic basin, and that limits its development and intensity potential.